PPRuNe Forums

PPRuNe Forums (https://www.pprune.org/)
-   Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific-90/)
-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

Capn Rex Havoc 23rd Jul 2021 23:24

I am officially embarrassed to be Australian. I watched the NSW Premier declare a national emergency, and asked for vaccines to be sent to NSW from the other states supplies. McGowan et al said "No way Jose'"(he didn't use those exact words) ," we are keeping our supplies". Shame Shame Shame. Aussies are in need. Bloody send the vaccines to NSW FFS. And yet we are supposed to be patriotic of the Olympics, One Nation - yeah right. Embarrassing.

ruprecht 23rd Jul 2021 23:33

McGowan pulling an: “All States Matter” :rolleyes:

WingNut60 23rd Jul 2021 23:40


Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc (Post 11083995)
I am officially embarrassed to be Australian. I watched the NSW Premier declare a national emergency, and asked for vaccines to be sent to NSW from the other states supplies. McGowan et al said "No way Jose'"(he didn't use those exact words) ," we are keeping our supplies". Shame Shame Shame. Aussies are in need. Bloody send the vaccines to NSW FFS. And yet we are supposed to be patriotic of the Olympics, One Nation - yeah right. Embarrassing.

Please refer Post #6312

Lead Balloon 23rd Jul 2021 23:42


Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc (Post 11083995)
I am officially embarrassed to be Australian. I watched the NSW Premier declare a national emergency, and asked for vaccines to be sent to NSW from the other states supplies. McGowan et al said "No way Jose'"(he didn't use those exact words) ," we are keeping our supplies". Shame Shame Shame. Aussies are in need. Bloody send the vaccines to NSW FFS. And yet we are supposed to be patriotic of the Olympics, One Nation - yeah right. Embarrassing.

The biggest embarrassment is Scotty from Marketing.

He controls the import and distribution of vaccines (yeah Mick: I know about local production too).

A State Premier declaring a 'national' emergency. If only we had a national government to make those kinds of decisions and implement an appropriate national response.

Scotty acts on the advice of the medical experts, until it becomes politically damaging.

Scotty uses a sentence with "sorry" in it about what "we" regret, so that it can be spun into an apology.

At least he's not blabbing as much as he used to. Scared of becoming white noise...


Green.Dot 23rd Jul 2021 23:47


Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc (Post 11083995)
I am officially embarrassed to be Australian.

Spot on Captain. If ever WA get invaded by the PLA (and if it does happen, that is where they will go), they can cry “national emergency” all they want.

Imagine the enthusiasm from the Government to send some RAAF F-35s over from the east coast.

Shame on you McGowan.


MickG0105 23rd Jul 2021 23:53


Originally Posted by Ladloy (Post 11083949)
blood clot risk below 50 years increases considerably. My age group is 1 in 30000 and I'm sure CASA would have a field day. I don't live in Sydney so there's no rush for me. By all means those in Sydney should go out and get AZ, ...

The Winton Centre at the University of Cambridge produced a handy infographic for doing a comparative risk assessment for the AstraZeneca vaccine. It shows the comparative risk of contracting COVID-19 and developing a serious illness versus the risk of developing a serious thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) reaction from the AstraZeneca vaccine. As expected the risks correlate inversely by age group.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d4e89f5d43.png
Source: Communicating the potential benefits and harms of the Astra-Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge


The COVID-19 risk on this graphic is based on a case prevalence of 2 active cases per 10,000 population. Nationally, we are running at about 0.67 cases per 10,000 or one third that rate; NSW is running at about that rate of 2 active cases per 10,000 population; Greater Sydney is presently around one third higher than the base rate at 3 cases per 10,000. It is a relatively simple case of adjusting the potential benefit of getting the vaccine by multiplying the base benefit illustrated by one half of your local case rate.

Gnadenburg 23rd Jul 2021 23:59

Greend Dot -


If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them.

ST

Either our security is really deteriorating or we are talking up our fears of the Chinese Communist Party in national debate.

Whichever, COVID has delivered a template for Australia's defeat. The CCP will not only pry these divisions in a grey zone coercion but possibly in direct military confrontation, rewarding compliant state governments, who bark at national response to security threats, with less CCP intimidation and threats of attacks.

West Australian parochialism is a good example of where the CCP could apply such a template. Not at where we would deploy military resources but where the CCP could look to divide the nation. WA would be rewarded post-confrontation ( resource rich and oligarch like politics ) and the conduct of conflict swayed to reward cowering states. East Coast states could bear the brunt of naval embargoes and not only direct attacks on military bases with long range conventional weaponry, but also civilian population centres to drive home the compliance message to a divided nation.



Lead Balloon 24th Jul 2021 00:15

Genuine question, Mick: What is the definition of "low exposure risk" for the purposes of that 'infographic'? Is it just '2 per 10,000'? I'm not sure what that means.

MickG0105 24th Jul 2021 01:04


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11084012)
Genuine question, Mick: What is the definition of "low exposure risk" for the purposes of that 'infographic'? Is it just '2 per 10,000'? I'm not sure what that means.

Based on the statistical notes to the guide the risk is based on the likelihood of contracting coronavirus over a 16 week period when it is circulating in the community at a prevalence rate of 2 active cases per 10,000 people.

They then take the likelihood that you will end up in ICU after contracting it and present avoidance as the benefit, where avoidance is calculated using a vaccine efficacy of 80 percent. UK hospitalisation, ICU admission and death data supports that 80 percent efficacy assumption.

It looks to be a general base rate that doesn't address individual mitigation strategies. Clearly, if you were adopting high levels of mitigation that would impact the "potential benefits".

It may not be perfect but it is the best comparative risk representation that I have seen for AstraZeneca. For the average punter it is certainly better than flailing around amidst a flurry of percentages and the like.

One of the most important things, that unfortunately you don't pick up from just the one graphic, is the the comparative risk is not static, it depends on the prevalence of coronavirus in the community. As you can see on this graphic for "medium" exposure risk - that is, 6 active cases per 10,000 - the potential benefits increase because the possibility of contracting coronavirus increases. The risk of an adverse reaction causing serious illness is fixed however.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ed5a0e0d3e.png



ozaub 24th Jul 2021 01:16

Marketing AstraZeneca vaccination to under-60s will kill about a dozen of them; based on UK Government statistics at https://www.gov.uk/government/public...card-reporting. That’s about the same risk as flying in the 1960s. Scotty just needs a glib slogan to convince them it’s worthwhile for the economy and for the rest of us.

Chris2303 24th Jul 2021 01:17

163 new cases in NSW

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cov...KNUTMCGLZDEGM/

PoppaJo 24th Jul 2021 01:31

Hazzard now wants Dan’s Pfizer.

I will just leave this here.


Lead Balloon 24th Jul 2021 01:33

Genuine thanks, Mick. This answered my question and the supplementary question in one go:

Based on the statistical notes to the guide the risk is based on the likelihood of contracting coronavirus over a 16 week period when it is circulating in the community at a prevalence rate of 2 active cases per 10,000 people.

They then take the likelihood that you will end up in ICU after contracting it and present avoidance as the benefit, where avoidance is calculated using a vaccine efficacy of 80 percent. UK hospitalisation, ICU admission and death data supports that 80 percent efficacy assumption.

It looks to be a general base rate that doesn't address individual mitigation strategies. Clearly, if you were adopting high levels of mitigation that would impact the "potential benefits".
It seems to me that the "medium exposure risk" is like expressing the probabilities of being attacked by a shark. But for an individual who doesn't go into the water, the probabilities are zero.

If I'm currently at zero risk of contracting C-19, getting the vaccine exposes me to a risk to which I don't need to be exposed. In this wide brown land, it is possible to be at zero risk of contracting C-19 for protracted periods.

(Of course, western Sydney isn't a 10,000 square km farm with one family living in the homestead, stocked up with food and fuel. The main problem in these Sydney suburbs is cultural. Many of the residents do not trust or do not care what 'the authorities' say.)


WingNut60 24th Jul 2021 02:04


Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc (Post 11083995)
I am officially embarrassed to be Australian. I watched the NSW Premier declare a national emergency, and asked for vaccines to be sent to NSW from the other states supplies. McGowan et al said "No way Jose'"(he didn't use those exact words) ," we are keeping our supplies". Shame Shame Shame. Aussies are in need. Bloody send the vaccines to NSW FFS. And yet we are supposed to be patriotic of the Olympics, One Nation - yeah right. Embarrassing.

I have just watched the SA Premier saying exactly the same. It's just that McGowan said it first.

rattman 24th Jul 2021 02:15


Originally Posted by WingNut60 (Post 11084037)
I have just watched the SA Premier saying exactly the same. It's just that McGowan said it first.

VIC, SA and WA have all said it. QLD wan not allowed to participate in the national cabinet, but going to guess the official answer would have been no. Just a reminder gladys said no about sending vaccines to VIC earlier this year.

MrScooter 24th Jul 2021 02:20

Thanks for the graphs, MickG0105.

The potential benefits are every 16 weeks, so multiply that by 3.25 per year?

The question becomes what will the rate in the community be once we stop locking down (assuming that day will come, and acknowledging that Sydney is currently at the lower rate with restrictions).

Gnadenburg 24th Jul 2021 02:22


Originally Posted by Lead Balloon (Post 11084033)
If I'm currently at zero risk of contracting C-19, getting the vaccine exposes me to a risk to which I don't need to be exposed. In this wide brown land, it is possible to be at zero risk of contracting C-19 for protracted periods.

Evidently, you will get COVID eventually. And many more Australians will die from it.

What worries me is people like yourself who may demand the continued shutting of borders and other damaging economic actions.

So can you sing from the rooftops, I'm not going to get vaccinated, but please open up the borders for others' sakes?

Lead Balloon 24th Jul 2021 02:44

You evidently haven't been able to review what I've said previously in this thread, Gnadenberg, or I haven't expressed myself clearly enough.

I don't know whether I support the lockdowns and border closures, because I don't know how much they cost. What I do know is that they cost an enormous amount, and Australia is merely delaying the inevitable. I think the NSW Treasurer committed a political heresy the other day, by effectively acknowledging the fact that the ever-increasing enormous costs may not be worth the lives saved. (It is a fact that we weigh up costs against lives every day. That's why, for example, there continue to be suicide deaths in prisons. We as a society have decided we're not going spend any more money to make all prisons suicide proof.)

I didn't say I wasn't going to get vaccinated. I will get vaccinated when the personal risk mitigating steps I'm taking against contracting C-19 are not sufficient, thus justifying my taking the risk of the vaccine. I hope by that stage that every essential worker and person in aged care has been vaccinated.

Torukmacto 24th Jul 2021 03:02

I didn't say I wasn't going to get vaccinated. I will get vaccinated when the personal risk mitigating steps I'm taking against contracting C-19 are not sufficient, thus justifying my taking the risk of the vaccine. I hope by that stage that every essential worker and person in aged care has been vaccinated.

Seems to be a common idea amongst Australians now , I’ll get vaccinated when I feel my health is sufficiently threatened in my opinion ?
We are at war with delta , the economy is taking hit after hit , the country is closed for business and states at each other’s throats . The only answer we have at the moment long term is to get the bulk of Australia vaccinated and open it up .

Australia is defiantly the lucky country but not sure if it’s better to be lucky or smart at the moment .

No more excuses .

Letting wife or girlfriend ( or both ) take the birth control pill monthly that has higher chance of getting a blood clot than the A-Z vaccination and saying I’m not getting vaccinated as risks are too high while country is on its knees ?

Lead Balloon 24th Jul 2021 03:11

Gosh, another one arising from my evident inability to make my point clearly enough.

So I'm sitting here in my homestead in the middle of my 10,000 square km property. Fridge and freezers full of good food, great beer and even better wine. Girlfriend by my side. Reliable and fast NBN. Dam full of water. Shed full of fuel for my generator, 4WD and aircraft.

Walk me through why it's sensible for me to travel into town where the risk of me contracting C-19 changes from zero to not-zero, so as to take a risk - irrespective of its probabilities - of death through blood clots.

Who exactly am I helping by taking the risk of the vaccination now? Who exactly, Torukmacto?


All times are GMT. The time now is 19:51.


Copyright © 2021 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.