Originally Posted by Turnleft080 (Post 10835353)

Oxford epidemiologist pushes herd immunity. article in THE AUSTRALIAN 8th July. by Jacquelin Magnay

One of the worlds top epidemiologists has urged Australia to abandon a lockdown strategy against Coronavirus and look to the Swedish model
of developing herd immunity. Sanetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology in the department of zoology at the University of Oxford, says
Australia is adopting a selfish and selfish-congratulatory approach which is misguided and will have a negative long-term consequence and urged
the country to look at the latest evidence to decide it's tactics. She said the Australian government changed its approach and let the virus-which 80-90%
of the population will only get asymptotically spread naturally, with intense protections for those most vulnerable, it would in the long term help protect all
of the Australians from future viral threats and also avoid the most damaging short term economic impacts for the underprivileged.

The most recent scientific research shows that between 30-80% of the population has natural immunity to coronavirus because the body's T-cells
recognise the threat from having had other cold and flu viruses. Scientists believe having coronavirus causes people's immune systems to develop antibodies
and T-cell responses to future viruses. Professor Gupta said: " One of the reasons why I'm not worried about this virus is a running theme in research work
is how previous exposure to viruses protects you from incoming threats." She warned that suppression of the virus did not work and lockdown simply
resulted in some parts the population being more exposed to the virus when it next flared up. She said,"There is no way lockdown can eliminate the virus
and so it's not at all surprising once you lift lockdown in areas it will flare up again. That is what we are seeing in southern USA, and in Australia.
In places where it has already swept through, a proportion of people are immune and you are not seeing it come back."
She said instead of lockdowns governments should focus energies on shielding the elderly and those with comorbidities to protect them as much as possible.
Professor Gupta said countries that had closed off borders were not ensuring populations remained exposed to the virus at some point, but long term it was unsustainable.
"You can only lock down for so lock down unless you choose to be in isolation for eternity so that's not a good solution," she said.
She said Australia may think it is an effective short-term strategy but there are long term consequences. "Being self-congratulatory,'we have kept it out', is misplaced.
Professor Gupta said Sweden's measured social-distancing approach had offered greater protections for the entire region because Scandinavia now had high levels of immunity.
Professor Gupta said Swedes "have done quite well in terms of deaths". She said Denmark and Norway, which locked down and have had lower deaths rates, may yet find next wave difficult.


This now begs the question. Dan will flatten the curve, cases will slide down to a few after 6 weeks. Then the borders open, stage 3 abandoned
until another cluster breakout and hey presto we go into another 6 week lockdown. Victorians won't take that. The above article has to come into play.

Originally Posted by layman (Post 10835655)

Bend alot

Belgium is counting differently to most countries

”Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52491210

Compared to some other countries that have only been counting confirmed cases and still
others that were not counting deaths in aged care.

Probably still too early to be reliable, but the ‘excess deaths / funerals’ is probably going to be the most reliable indicator of how countries / states have fared.

Originally Posted by normanton (Post 10836711)

As soon as one case appears in QLD from NSW/VIC the borders will close. Nightmare.

Originally Posted by zanthrus (Post 10836800)

Open up, get herd immunity make economy prosper. let the sickest die, move on. Lock down is clearly not working and the "cure" does more damage than the disease.

Originally Posted by zanthrus (Post 10836800)

Open up, get herd immunity make economy prosper. let the sickest die, move on. Lock down is clearly not working and the "cure" does more damage than the disease.

Originally Posted by aviation_enthus (Post 10837205)

I remember reading back when the cases dropped off that Victoria alone had created (or planned) 4000 new ICU beds to cope with the predicted outbreak. What happened to all those beds?

Originally Posted by alphacentauri (Post 10837433)

Economic destruction is fine, until you are the one out of a job and cannot support your family.

Pick one.....

Originally Posted by alphacentauri (Post 10837433)

Economic destruction is fine, until you are the one out of a job and cannot support your family.

Pick one.....

Originally Posted by alphacentauri (Post 10837474)

You are not in the position I describe. I meant you have no money.

Honestly, my choice would be to let the virus run its course, with no lockdowns.


Not sure I agree with that statement.

Originally Posted by aviation_enthus (Post 10837205)

With the new outbreaks in Victoria it’s worth asking ‘the viewers at home’...

What is Australia’s strategy with COVID??

........

Originally Posted by HabuHunter (Post 10837438)

Australopithecus said: “The Swedish laissez-faire model has resulted in a higher per-capita death rate ...“


While it seems intuitively to be the case, that statement is not proven and shouldn’t be stated with such authority. It may be correct or it may not be.

Sweden’s death rate while higher than its immediate neighbours is still lower than the UK, Belgium, Germany, Spain and Italy... all of whom locked down. Some other countries that did NOT lock down such as South Korea, Taipei and others have really low death rates.

Correlation does not prove causation.

Originally Posted by Livinthedream320 (Post 10837585)

Originally Posted by Xeptu (Post 10837615)

The 300 health care workers that died on the job in the UK alone would be disappointed to here they were oldies and health compromised anyway.

Originally Posted by Turnleft080 (Post 10837698)

To quote aviation-enthus again, the only sustainable way to deal with this is "Some sort of middle ground has to be found. Masks on, social distancing, build more ICU beds and PROPERLY isolate the vulnerable (especially in nursing homes etc)."

Lapsap regarding the above sentence.

1. Masks- should only be worn if you have or tested positive with covid. If you have 100 people tested negative masks are pointless.
Additionally they reduce your O2 by 20% because your recycling some of your CO2 which is a by product (waste) once the red blood cells have finished it's job of transporting O2.
Hence all your body organs are getting 20% less O2. Well that's really good for your brain.
If you get sneezed on your mask is supposed to protect you. Like hell. Your hair, ears, forehead, neck, shoulders, shirt, pants, are totally coated with the virus.
Then you touch your mask, enough said. Don't forget your swimming goggles if you wear a musk, tear ducts absorb everything that's in front of you.
Minor points they mentally drag you down, can't see your lips move while talking, and you feel claustrophobic adding emotional stress.

2. Social distancing- Who came up with 1.5m. Really WHO came up with this shizen. If you sneeze in still air your particles will travel 5-7m they are released at 200kph.
Kylie Mole/Billie Eilish "der."

3. ICUs- Hospitals are places were you should avoid if you can. It's your last resort. If they put you on drugs and shizen food, they destroy gut lining. Well that's good for you immune system.
If they put you on a ventilator it does the breathing for you. To have one on, your lungs are in a pneumonitis state. Mucus is building in your alveolus and that needs to be coughed up.
You really think they would have a tube in there (the lungs) to vacuum out the gunk. If they don't it's like drowning in your own fluids. Please tell me 570,000 haven't died like this.
Your grandma and your great, always boiled some water, throw the tea towel over you and breath deep. A sauna and a hot shower has the same effect.
Notice you cough up a lot of mucus during it. Viruses hate hot saturated air.

4.-Isolate the vulnerable. Good idea. They have been doing that since Ancient Egypt, Roman Empire though our present day emperors will lockdown everything.