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Old 14th Apr 2021, 23:35
  #4361 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
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Originally Posted by Derfred View Post
What Victorians went through was an example of what happens when you let the virus into the wild. It only takes one or two unchecked to let it rip. About 800 people died.

Now you call for relaxation of international border restrictions.

I’m very interested in these reasonable precautions you speak of, and how exactly you intend to determine who amongst us will or won’t take these reasonable precautions.

The whole Sydney Northern Beaches outbreak was allegedly caused by certain “exempt” folks who were expected, or “trusted” to take reasonable precautions. And didn’t.
Unless COVID Mutates and dies out, it's not going anywhere. Just like the Flu.
The Vaccines, in theory, will reduce the spread and the effects enough, that it wont overwhelm the Health Systems. People will still catch it, spread it and die from it. Same as all the other Viruses we've learned to live with.

The World has put it's faith in the Vaccines, and with it, the loosening of travel restrictions will follow. The Media needs to stop making it front page news everytime there's a positive case because it's giving people the impression that Zero COVID is an achievable goal long term. It's not... Globally, we passed the point of no return over 6 months ago.

Many of us chose to get Vaccinated, others didn't. Each to their own. But when the World gets back to normal, there will be very little sympathy for Anti-Vaxxers demanding borders be closed again when COVID creeps back into NZ/AUS. Unless we get lucky with a Vaccine that can actually eliminates it (doubtful), it's going to be with us just like Flu.
ElZilcho is offline  
Old 14th Apr 2021, 23:45
  #4362 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
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“Flatten the Curve” seems like so long ago.
ruprecht is offline  
Old 15th Apr 2021, 01:03
  #4363 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ElZilcho View Post
Unless COVID Mutates and dies out, it's not going anywhere. Just like the Flu.
The Vaccines, in theory, will reduce the spread and the effects enough, that it wont overwhelm the Health Systems. People will still catch it, spread it and die from it. Same as all the other Viruses we've learned to live with.

The World has put it's faith in the Vaccines, and with it, the loosening of travel restrictions will follow. The Media needs to stop making it front page news everytime there's a positive case because it's giving people the impression that Zero COVID is an achievable goal long term. It's not... Globally, we passed the point of no return over 6 months ago.

Many of us chose to get Vaccinated, others didn't. Each to their own. But when the World gets back to normal, there will be very little sympathy for Anti-Vaxxers demanding borders be closed again when COVID creeps back into NZ/AUS. Unless we get lucky with a Vaccine that can actually eliminates it (doubtful), it's going to be with us just like Flu.
Preach! The sooner people understand this the better. There is never going to be a Covid zero, ever. Unless we want to become a hermit nation disconnected from the global economy (which the anti-vaxxers won’t mind).
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Old 15th Apr 2021, 01:30
  #4364 (permalink)  
 
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Many of us chose to get Vaccinated, others didn't. Each to their own. But when the World gets back to normal, there will be very little sympathy for Anti-Vaxxers demanding borders be closed again when COVID creeps back into NZ/AUS. Unless we get lucky with a Vaccine that can actually eliminates it (doubtful), it's going to be with us just like Flu.
It's not the anti-vaxers, it's the Politicians that need convincing. And to convince them you need to convince the general public. Unless the politicians know there won't be a complete wipe-out of their party come election time nothing will be changing in this country.
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Old 15th Apr 2021, 01:44
  #4365 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by neville_nobody View Post
It's not the anti-vaxers, it's the Politicians that need convincing. And to convince them you need to convince the general public. Unless the politicians know there won't be a complete wipe-out of their party come election time nothing will be changing in this country.
Exactly.

Every decision that the government makes will be with the next election in mind, and there are a lot of voters who live in the same state as all their relatives. We are a victim of our own success - any relaxing of the borders will be seen as killing Aunty Gladys.
ruprecht is offline  
Old 15th Apr 2021, 03:56
  #4366 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
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I posted the wrong link re the Qantas announcement.

correct one.
Highlights
QANTAS GROUP RECOVERY GATHERS SPEED
• Group Domestic capacity increasing beyond previous estimates to reach 90 per cent of pre-COVID levels in Q4 FY21; Jetstar to exceed 100 per cent due to strong leisure demand.
• All Qantas and Jetstar domestic crew now back at work.
• Recovery strategy puts short term focus on cash positive flying over profit margins – meaning more low
fares to help drive demand.
• Continuing to target resumption of rest of international network from late October; continued flexibility
for customers.
• Premium international lounges in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane to reopen.
• New deal signed with Accor


https://investor.qantas.com/Download...5/02363725.pdf
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Old 15th Apr 2021, 09:58
  #4367 (permalink)  
 
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" Preliminary data indicates the vaccines do prevent transmission as well as negating the effects of the disease. How long it’s effective for is yet to be determined, however the vaccines seem to be doing better than expected."

evidence from the UK (now 32.3 million first jabs and 8.1 million second jabs) shows that the even a single shot reduces transmission (as well as infection) and lasts at least 3 months, a second jab improves things and after 6 months show s no sign of diminution in effect. They also seem to be effective against the new variants. There are indications that the Pfizer and the Astra Zeneca trigger different parts of the immune system and they are running trails to see if, in the long run, getting a mixture of vaccination types may up the protection even further.

The dramatic fall in cases and hospitalisations was initially due to the severe lockdown but now you can see the vaccine affect - old people are no longer the majority of either hospital cases or new cases
Asturias56 is offline  
Old 15th Apr 2021, 10:21
  #4368 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by aviation_enthus View Post
Just to add...

- 1/3rd of Australians are born overseas.

- in a normal year, up to 1 Million Australians live overseas.

The issues with the border closure has NEVER been about going to Bali or skiing in NZ. Honestly we can all survive for 12-24 months without that.

But what it does affect is the millions of Australians with family on another side of the closed border. This policy has been poorly handled from the start. There are many examples of better quarantine systems (Taiwan, Singapore, NZ to name a few) that still provide protection for the local population.

This policy isn’t sustainable. It’s unreasonable to expect Australians to cop it for 2-3 years.

If you don’t have family overseas or back in Australia, I’m sorry but you just don’t get it. It’s NOT about “going on holiday”....
But holidays are still a part of it. I know several Aussies with dual nationality who live in Europe and chose to come "home" and 2 weeks quarantine in December. They then spent 6-8 weeks in Australia during summer before going back to Europe.
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Old 15th Apr 2021, 10:41
  #4369 (permalink)  
 
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Looks like the PM is going full McGowan for the election:

But he said the nation had become used to dealing with no cases and opening the borders would end the national cabinet’s stated goal of zero community transmission of COVID-19.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...15-p57jmo.html

...and surprise, surprise. A goal of ‘zero community transmission’ means the vaccine rollout timeline is unimportant.
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Old 15th Apr 2021, 10:48
  #4370 (permalink)  
 
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I don't think he has any choice as he will be screwed either way if he doesn't have a hard border. Even if he went to a open border then lost the election, Labor would probably shut it all down anyway, if their State government policies are any indication.
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Old 15th Apr 2021, 10:57
  #4371 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ruprecht View Post
Looks like the PM is going full McGowan for the election:



https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...15-p57jmo.html

...and surprise, surprise. A goal of ‘zero community transmission’ means the vaccine rollout timeline is unimportant.

I actually don't interpret this narrative negatively. I think the past two weeks or so he has been trying to slowly and stealthily steer the long term narrative towards slowly opening up. I heard mentioned about him wanting the states to stop giving daily case number updates etc, and to agree to keep the internal borders open. For the last year, we have associated Covid with death and disaster. I think they are trying to get to the stage where the vulnerable are vaccinated and protected, so when the young get sick in general they aren't dying in overwhelming numbers... life to go on.

The challenge is the state governments (no elections to win this year..) and the media have led an absolute hysteria over every aspect of this crisis - ie the government is slammed by the media for picking a suboptimal vaccine which we could make onshore (a reasonable choice at the time), which now many don't want, and in the next breath is slammed for not having said vaccines to roll out immediately!

A challenge now will be for the government to overcome vaccine hesitancy in the population, regardless of supply bottlenecks.
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Old 15th Apr 2021, 11:51
  #4372 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
" Preliminary data indicates the vaccines do prevent transmission as well as negating the effects of the disease. How long it’s effective for is yet to be determined, however the vaccines seem to be doing better than expected."

evidence from the UK (now 32.3 million first jabs and 8.1 million second jabs) shows that the even a single shot reduces transmission (as well as infection) and lasts at least 3 months, a second jab improves things and after 6 months show s no sign of diminution in effect. They also seem to be effective against the new variants. There are indications that the Pfizer and the Astra Zeneca trigger different parts of the immune system and they are running trails to see if, in the long run, getting a mixture of vaccination types may up the protection even further.

The dramatic fall in cases and hospitalisations was initially due to the severe lockdown but now you can see the vaccine affect - old people are no longer the majority of either hospital cases or new cases
It’s good to see - this year will be a better year for sure.
ScepticalOptomist is offline  
Old 15th Apr 2021, 13:33
  #4373 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
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Covid, its just a flu. There are worse diseases out there. Life goes on. F U McClown !
zanthrus is offline  
Old 15th Apr 2021, 13:43
  #4374 (permalink)  
Keg

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Originally Posted by Derfred View Post

Now you call for relaxation of international border restrictions.
There is a significant difference between closed borders as we have now and ‘sensible precautions’.

Originally Posted by Derfred View Post
I’m very interested in these reasonable precautions you speak of, and how exactly you intend to determine who amongst us will or won’t take these reasonable precautions.
I’m vaccinated. Half my household is likewise. Why are we prohibited from travelling overseas? Some others have addressed other points.

It’s also interesting how those critical of the ‘open up’ crowd presume that it’s open slather. There are a number of steps between fully closed and ‘let it rip’. Nuance is possible in life. Just not possible in PPRuNe discussions it seems.

Originally Posted by Derfred View Post

The whole Sydney Northern Beaches outbreak was allegedly caused by certain “exempt” folks who were expected, or “trusted” to take reasonable precautions. And didn’t.
It was caused by foreign crew ignoring their quarantine directives and lunching on the northern beaches in two different locations. Again, if the vaccine significantly decreases the chances of catching Covid (by 90%), and then when you do get it you have a milder case if not asymptomatic, and thus have a significantly lower chance of passing it on, and most of the rest of the nation is vaccinated, why are we closing the borders?
Keg is offline  
Old 15th Apr 2021, 16:15
  #4375 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by zanthrus View Post
Covid, its just a flu. There are worse diseases out there. Life goes on. F U McClown !

yeah - a flu that can fill up every hospital bed in a nation in 4 weeks - I've heard from people in Spain and Italy and you really don't want to have that. All other operations cancelled, 20-30% of the patients dead, hospital staff worn to a shadow

this year, next year it'll be like the 'flu - as long as you've had your shots
Asturias56 is offline  
Old 15th Apr 2021, 20:19
  #4376 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
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Remember when a vocal group wanted us to react like Sweden?

This is on top of other restrictions they had/have. (update from 15 March 21).



Until September 2021, a temporary pandemic law ("Pandemilagen") shall apply. As a result, certain activities that are not covered by other infection control legislation can be closed or restricted.

The government has introduced a number of restrictions in connection with the pandemic law.

Until further notice, no more than eight people may be present at a public gathering or public event. The police has the right to cancel or dissolve an event that has more than eight attendees.

If a private gathering is held at an event venue, in a meeting room and at other rented premises, a maximum of eight people are allowed to attend.

An exception is made for funerals, where up to 20 participants are allowed.
If you organise an event in violation of the ban, you may face a fine or prison sentence of up to six months.

Shops, gyms, indoor sports facilities, and swimming facilities must calculate the number of visitors so that each person is given ten square meters of space. The companies must display clear signage that clarifies for visitors how many people may visit the premises at the same time. There is a further limit of 500 visitors for shops, sports facilities etc. This rule does not apply to shopping centres and malls.
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Old 15th Apr 2021, 21:00
  #4377 (permalink)  
 
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Have you looked at the data in Sweden? Plenty of new cases every day, and almost no deaths arising from them.

Unfortunately we’re still hung up on numbers infected - even when that’s not translating into serious disease and death.

Some countries don’t have that luxury yet, but a lot do as they have vaccinations and most likely some level of natural immunity from not locking up so quickly.
ScepticalOptomist is offline  
Old 15th Apr 2021, 23:00
  #4378 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
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Dear Mr Morrison
My family are all Australian citizens.

I havent seen them for 2 years and dont know if I will ever see them again

I am fully vaccinated ( 2x doses/pfizer )

I will pay for a Covid test before departure

I will pay for a test upon arrival

I will pay for 2 weeks in a quarantine facility

I will pay for another test before being released from quarantine

Im from the UK where everyone will have one vaccine dose by July and Two by October

The number of deaths and hospital admissions have all fallen dramatically in the UK and are expected to fall further in future

Please can I come over in November.

fl dutchman is offline  
Old 16th Apr 2021, 00:54
  #4379 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Whanganui, NZ
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Originally Posted by fl dutchman View Post
Dear Mr Morrison
My family are all Australian citizens.
I haven't seen them for 2 years and dont know if I will ever see them again
I am fully vaccinated ( 2x doses/pfizer )
I will pay for a Covid test before departure
I will pay for a test upon arrival
I will pay for 2 weeks in a quarantine facility
I will pay for another test before being released from quarantine
I'm from the UK where everyone will have one vaccine dose by July and Two by October
The number of deaths and hospital admissions have all fallen dramatically in the UK and are expected to fall further in future
Please can I come over in November.
No
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison ... said work was underway to open a travel bubble with Singapore, but ruled out similar pathways for Europe, the United States, India, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and other countries with large outbreaks.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/austra...morrison-warns
kiwi grey is offline  
Old 16th Apr 2021, 05:09
  #4380 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
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But he said the nation had become used to dealing with no cases and opening the borders would end the national cabinet’s stated goal of zero community transmission of Covid-19.

There you have it folks. 1000 cases a week equating to ~10 deaths a week from Covid before vaccination, probably 1pw after the vulnerable groups are vaccinated. Believe me this is completely unsustainable.

Also is Morrison seriously suggesting that Aus is outperforming the likes of Germany with their vaccine rollout? Saying that they were further ahead at the equivalent stage... what a load of rubbish! These qualify for being politicians?
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