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Old 16th Apr 2021, 05:45
  #4381 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist
Have you looked at the data in Sweden? Plenty of new cases every day, and almost no deaths arising from them.

Unfortunately we’re still hung up on numbers infected - even when that’s not translating into serious disease and death.

Some countries don’t have that luxury yet, but a lot do as they have vaccinations and most likely some level of natural immunity from not locking up so quickly.

The argument was Sweden had a blip early with aged care (and admitted it) but after that relatively no deaths.

Figures 2/10/2020____ 93,615 cases & 5,893 deaths.

Today 16/4/2021 (about 6 months) 892,480 cases & 13,761 deaths.

So almost no deaths = 7,868.

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Old 16th Apr 2021, 07:36
  #4382 (permalink)  
 
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All the evidence is that when politicians get optimistic and lift the restrictions cases then hospital admissions and then deaths soar - Sweden, Chile & the UK all show this

We have to wait until about 65% of the population have had the jab to think about opening up fully - at that point the much maligned "herd immunity" actually exists
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 09:44
  #4383 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
All the evidence is that when politicians get optimistic and lift the restrictions cases then hospital admissions and then deaths soar - Sweden, Chile & the UK all show this

We have to wait until about 65% of the population have had the jab to think about opening up fully - at that point the much maligned "herd immunity" actually exists
Where in the UK have hospital admissions or deaths soared?

Chile are also using Chinese vaccines that don’t work.
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 10:10
  #4384 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39
Where in the UK have hospital admissions or deaths soared?

Chile are also using Chinese vaccines that don’t work.

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Old 16th Apr 2021, 10:11
  #4385 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39
Where in the UK have hospital admissions or deaths soared?

Chile are also using Chinese vaccines that don’t work.
UK are sitting in the World # 6 in cases, and # 4 in deaths - has it been just consistent?
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 11:47
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If you look at that graph you may notice that since January when the vaccine rollout started the number of patients admitted has fallen dramatically. So has deaths.
Still some way to go before vaccination is complete which will reduce numbers further.

Yes the number of cases /deaths etc may be very high in TOTAL since the start of all this. Things are looking much much better NOW mainly because of the successful vaccination program. ( any deaths are regrettable of course)

We need to stop looking backwards and start to move forwards with caution.

Surely International borders cant stay closed forever. That cant be good for anyone.

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Old 16th Apr 2021, 11:50
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Originally Posted by Bend alot
UK are sitting in the World # 6 in cases, and # 4 in deaths - has it been just consistent?
Ancient history now. We’re in April 2021 not 12 months ago. The vaccine rollout using an efficacious one is succeeding and the UK is bucking the trend.
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 12:00
  #4388 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bend alot
UK are sitting in the World # 6 in cases, and # 4 in deaths - has it been just consistent?
your definition of “soar” is different to pretty much everyone else there chief
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 12:09
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Originally Posted by chookcooker
your definition of “soar” is different to pretty much everyone else there chief
Thanks Chump, ? = question.
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 12:17
  #4390 (permalink)  
 
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I love the alternate reality when, when presented with concrete facts (government issued graphs) , people justchange the narrative as if it never happened.

smooth.
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 12:30
  #4391 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by compressor stall
I love the alternate reality when, when presented with concrete facts (government issued graphs) , people justchange the narrative as if it never happened.

smooth.
Hardly. The claim was made the deaths and hospitalisations were soaring. This is not the case in the UK.
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 13:38
  #4392 (permalink)  
 
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Hiding behind construed tenses. Clever.

The claim was that
All the evidence is that when politicians get optimistic and lift the restrictions cases then hospital admissions and then deaths soar - Sweden, Chile & the UK all show this
When politicians opened up, deaths etc soared. That happened in lots of places in 2020. The claim was NOT that deaths etc are soarING in the UK NOW.

And it’s even more indefensible as you”ve only just started opening up some non essential shops (so no time yet to soar like last time) AND you’ve got an enviable vaccine policy. It’s unlikely to go batsh!t again in the UK.
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 16:59
  #4393 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fl dutchman
If you look at that graph you may notice that since January when the vaccine rollout started the number of patients admitted has fallen dramatically. So has deaths.
Still some way to go before vaccination is complete which will reduce numbers further.

Yes the number of cases /deaths etc may be very high in TOTAL since the start of all this. Things are looking much much better NOW mainly because of the successful vaccination program. ( any deaths are regrettable of course)

We need to stop looking backwards and start to move forwards with caution.

Surely International borders cant stay closed forever. That cant be good for anyone.
Also in the UK, the stats are, people who die “within 28 days of a positive COVID result”.
So if you’re hit by a bus within 28 days of a positive result, you’re in the numbers.

We’ll never know the true numbers but with those metrics, they won’t be zero for a very long time, and there are many deaths that have gone down as COVID with family maintaining they died of something else.

That’s not to say the UK hasn’t had an awful time of it...

If you’re going for a zero COVID strategy, there are going to be large parts of the globe that will be inaccessible for many years to come. Not to mention the number of jobs lost in the travel and tourism industry. This is afterall, a pilots forum.
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 21:01
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It’s amazing how many people on these forums that either (a) are happy to destroy their own industry and (b) happy to keep taking the money despite no one sitting in the back forgetting the consequences.
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Old 16th Apr 2021, 21:49
  #4395 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BA_Baracas
Also in the UK, the stats are, people who die “within 28 days of a positive COVID result”.
So if you’re hit by a bus within 28 days of a positive result, you’re in the numbers.
Stop telling lies, virtually every western country with the exception of belgium is using the WHO standard/classification. No where in that document does it say what you claim

https://www.who.int/classifications/...h_COVID-19.pdf
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 04:22
  #4396 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
All the evidence is that when politicians get optimistic and lift the restrictions cases then hospital admissions and then deaths soar - Sweden, Chile & the UK all show this

We have to wait until about 65% of the population have had the jab to think about opening up fully - at that point the much maligned "herd immunity" actually exists
Its a bit more than that. The AZ vaccine has an efficacy of 79% and COVID has an R number of 3. The formula for herd immunity is H=(1-(1/R))/E. So you need 84% of the population vaccinated to reach herd immunity. Pfizer efficacy is 91% and that brings the H number down to 73%. We have a mix of vaccines, so which number do you use?

Opening up international borders is going to be a very slow process that will take years before any kind of free travel is allowed, even if vaccinated. First we have countries like NZ which are COVID free with strong restrictions to transits etc. We will then probably look at countries with strong border restrictions with very little COVID and allow vaccinated travel with testing and maybe a short quarantine period.

I think we will be lucky by the end of this year to have more than NZ and maybe a couple of Pacific Islands. Very lucky to have somewhere like Singapore as well.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 05:13
  #4397 (permalink)  
 
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The latest from the CDC in the USA. And before you go on about the Americans mismanaging the pandemic, which they did thanks to Donald, just remember where the two mRNA vaccines have come from.
Travel overseas and upon return NO NEED TO QUARANTINE.
Why?
Because you’re vaccinated and that can only be a good thing and yet here we are once again dragging the chain. Re inventing the wheel. Thinking we know better. When was the last time that Australia designed and built an airliner? Austronauts. What are we now Vaccinauts. This is a pilot forum. We fly technical equipment invented by scientists and engineers. It’s about time we applied some science and logic to the discussion. Not some abstract crap you heard on social media. We’ve become a bunch of risk averse pussies.




Last edited by Troo believer; 17th Apr 2021 at 05:23.
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 07:50
  #4398 (permalink)  
 
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Yep, science and logic would say that's what we have to look forward to when 40% of the population have had at least one dose (effectively eliminating hospital risk) and 25% are fully vaccinated. They are the stats from the USA from yesterday.

We should be in that position by .... Christmas?
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 08:31
  #4399 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by compressor stall
Yep, science and logic would say that's what we have to look forward to when 40% of the population have had at least one dose (effectively eliminating hospital risk) and 25% are fully vaccinated. They are the stats from the USA from yesterday.

We should be in that position by .... Christmas?
We may be moving too slowly for my liking, but the upside is we will have longer to see what the US and UK do - I’m pretty positive things will get better quicker than the doomsdayers predict!
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Old 17th Apr 2021, 09:03
  #4400 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Troo believer
The latest from the CDC in the USA. And before you go on about the Americans mismanaging the pandemic, which they did thanks to Donald, just remember where the two mRNA vaccines have come from.
Travel overseas and upon return NO NEED TO QUARANTINE.
Why?
Because you’re vaccinated and that can only be a good thing and yet here we are once again dragging the chain. Re inventing the wheel. Thinking we know better. When was the last time that Australia designed and built an airliner? Austronauts. What are we now Vaccinauts. This is a pilot forum. We fly technical equipment invented by scientists and engineers. It’s about time we applied some science and logic to the discussion. Not some abstract crap you heard on social media. We’ve become a bunch of risk averse pussies.


I think you’ll find we are listening to the experts - Australian experts who didn’t completely mess up the management of this virus. The CDC is all well and good but 1000 people are still dying every day in the US and the total is in excess of 566,000 deaths. They have the highest number of confirmed cases and the highest overall death toll of any country. They are 15th in the world for total deaths per capita, behind a list of developing countries or countries without decent medical infrastructure. Their economy is stuffed and their population has suffered.

Why on earth would we follow their policy?
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