Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

All borders to reopen.

Old 23rd Jul 2021, 23:40
  #6361 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Perth, WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Age: 71
Posts: 888
Received 17 Likes on 11 Posts
Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc
I am officially embarrassed to be Australian. I watched the NSW Premier declare a national emergency, and asked for vaccines to be sent to NSW from the other states supplies. McGowan et al said "No way Jose'"(he didn't use those exact words) ," we are keeping our supplies". Shame Shame Shame. Aussies are in need. Bloody send the vaccines to NSW FFS. And yet we are supposed to be patriotic of the Olympics, One Nation - yeah right. Embarrassing.
Please refer Post #6312
WingNut60 is online now  
Old 23rd Jul 2021, 23:42
  #6362 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
Posts: 5,284
Received 416 Likes on 207 Posts
Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc
I am officially embarrassed to be Australian. I watched the NSW Premier declare a national emergency, and asked for vaccines to be sent to NSW from the other states supplies. McGowan et al said "No way Jose'"(he didn't use those exact words) ," we are keeping our supplies". Shame Shame Shame. Aussies are in need. Bloody send the vaccines to NSW FFS. And yet we are supposed to be patriotic of the Olympics, One Nation - yeah right. Embarrassing.
The biggest embarrassment is Scotty from Marketing.

He controls the import and distribution of vaccines (yeah Mick: I know about local production too).

A State Premier declaring a 'national' emergency. If only we had a national government to make those kinds of decisions and implement an appropriate national response.

Scotty acts on the advice of the medical experts, until it becomes politically damaging.

Scotty uses a sentence with "sorry" in it about what "we" regret, so that it can be spun into an apology.

At least he's not blabbing as much as he used to. Scared of becoming white noise...

Lead Balloon is online now  
Old 23rd Jul 2021, 23:47
  #6363 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: HKG
Posts: 399
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc
I am officially embarrassed to be Australian.
Spot on Captain. If ever WA get invaded by the PLA (and if it does happen, that is where they will go), they can cry ďnational emergencyĒ all they want.

Imagine the enthusiasm from the Government to send some RAAF F-35s over from the east coast.

Shame on you McGowan.

Green.Dot is offline  
Old 23rd Jul 2021, 23:53
  #6364 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 1,162
Received 189 Likes on 94 Posts
Originally Posted by Ladloy
blood clot risk below 50 years increases considerably. My age group is 1 in 30000 and I'm sure CASA would have a field day. I don't live in Sydney so there's no rush for me. By all means those in Sydney should go out and get AZ, ...
The Winton Centre at the University of Cambridge produced a handy infographic for doing a comparative risk assessment for the AstraZeneca vaccine. It shows the comparative risk of contracting COVID-19 and developing a serious illness versus the risk of developing a serious thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) reaction from the AstraZeneca vaccine. As expected the risks correlate inversely by age group.


Source: Communicating the potential benefits and harms of the Astra-Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge


The COVID-19 risk on this graphic is based on a case prevalence of 2 active cases per 10,000 population. Nationally, we are running at about 0.67 cases per 10,000 or one third that rate; NSW is running at about that rate of 2 active cases per 10,000 population; Greater Sydney is presently around one third higher than the base rate at 3 cases per 10,000. It is a relatively simple case of adjusting the potential benefit of getting the vaccine by multiplying the base benefit illustrated by one half of your local case rate.
MickG0105 is online now  
Old 23rd Jul 2021, 23:59
  #6365 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Eden Valley
Posts: 2,152
Received 92 Likes on 41 Posts
Greend Dot -

If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them.

ST
Either our security is really deteriorating or we are talking up our fears of the Chinese Communist Party in national debate.

Whichever, COVID has delivered a template for Australia's defeat. The CCP will not only pry these divisions in a grey zone coercion but possibly in direct military confrontation, rewarding compliant state governments, who bark at national response to security threats, with less CCP intimidation and threats of attacks.

West Australian parochialism is a good example of where the CCP could apply such a template. Not at where we would deploy military resources but where the CCP could look to divide the nation. WA would be rewarded post-confrontation ( resource rich and oligarch like politics ) and the conduct of conflict swayed to reward cowering states. East Coast states could bear the brunt of naval embargoes and not only direct attacks on military bases with long range conventional weaponry, but also civilian population centres to drive home the compliance message to a divided nation.


Gnadenburg is online now  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 00:15
  #6366 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
Posts: 5,284
Received 416 Likes on 207 Posts
Genuine question, Mick: What is the definition of "low exposure risk" for the purposes of that 'infographic'? Is it just '2 per 10,000'? I'm not sure what that means.
Lead Balloon is online now  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 01:04
  #6367 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Sunshine Coast
Posts: 1,162
Received 189 Likes on 94 Posts
Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
Genuine question, Mick: What is the definition of "low exposure risk" for the purposes of that 'infographic'? Is it just '2 per 10,000'? I'm not sure what that means.
Based on the statistical notes to the guide the risk is based on the likelihood of contracting coronavirus over a 16 week period when it is circulating in the community at a prevalence rate of 2 active cases per 10,000 people.

They then take the likelihood that you will end up in ICU after contracting it and present avoidance as the benefit, where avoidance is calculated using a vaccine efficacy of 80 percent. UK hospitalisation, ICU admission and death data supports that 80 percent efficacy assumption.

It looks to be a general base rate that doesn't address individual mitigation strategies. Clearly, if you were adopting high levels of mitigation that would impact the "potential benefits".

It may not be perfect but it is the best comparative risk representation that I have seen for AstraZeneca. For the average punter it is certainly better than flailing around amidst a flurry of percentages and the like.

One of the most important things, that unfortunately you don't pick up from just the one graphic, is the the comparative risk is not static, it depends on the prevalence of coronavirus in the community. As you can see on this graphic for "medium" exposure risk - that is, 6 active cases per 10,000 - the potential benefits increase because the possibility of contracting coronavirus increases. The risk of an adverse reaction causing serious illness is fixed however.





Last edited by MickG0105; 24th Jul 2021 at 01:17. Reason: Comment on representation of risk
MickG0105 is online now  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 01:16
  #6368 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: australia
Posts: 139
Likes: 0
Received 6 Likes on 1 Post
Marketing AstraZeneca vaccination to under-60s will kill about a dozen of them; based on UK Government statistics at https://www.gov.uk/government/public...card-reporting. That’s about the same risk as flying in the 1960s. Scotty just needs a glib slogan to convince them it’s worthwhile for the economy and for the rest of us.
ozaub is offline  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 01:17
  #6369 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 78
Received 16 Likes on 10 Posts
163 new cases in NSW

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cov...KNUTMCGLZDEGM/
Chris2303 is offline  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 01:31
  #6370 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Oz
Age: 68
Posts: 1,913
Received 295 Likes on 124 Posts
Hazzard now wants Danís Pfizer.

I will just leave this here.

PoppaJo is offline  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 01:33
  #6371 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
Posts: 5,284
Received 416 Likes on 207 Posts
Genuine thanks, Mick. This answered my question and the supplementary question in one go:
Based on the statistical notes to the guide the risk is based on the likelihood of contracting coronavirus over a 16 week period when it is circulating in the community at a prevalence rate of 2 active cases per 10,000 people.

They then take the likelihood that you will end up in ICU after contracting it and present avoidance as the benefit, where avoidance is calculated using a vaccine efficacy of 80 percent. UK hospitalisation, ICU admission and death data supports that 80 percent efficacy assumption.

It looks to be a general base rate that doesn't address individual mitigation strategies. Clearly, if you were adopting high levels of mitigation that would impact the "potential benefits".
It seems to me that the "medium exposure risk" is like expressing the probabilities of being attacked by a shark. But for an individual who doesn't go into the water, the probabilities are zero.

If I'm currently at zero risk of contracting C-19, getting the vaccine exposes me to a risk to which I don't need to be exposed. In this wide brown land, it is possible to be at zero risk of contracting C-19 for protracted periods.

(Of course, western Sydney isn't a 10,000 square km farm with one family living in the homestead, stocked up with food and fuel. The main problem in these Sydney suburbs is cultural. Many of the residents do not trust or do not care what 'the authorities' say.)

Lead Balloon is online now  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 02:04
  #6372 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Perth, WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Age: 71
Posts: 888
Received 17 Likes on 11 Posts
Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc
I am officially embarrassed to be Australian. I watched the NSW Premier declare a national emergency, and asked for vaccines to be sent to NSW from the other states supplies. McGowan et al said "No way Jose'"(he didn't use those exact words) ," we are keeping our supplies". Shame Shame Shame. Aussies are in need. Bloody send the vaccines to NSW FFS. And yet we are supposed to be patriotic of the Olympics, One Nation - yeah right. Embarrassing.
I have just watched the SA Premier saying exactly the same. It's just that McGowan said it first.
WingNut60 is online now  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 02:15
  #6373 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: aus
Posts: 1,305
Likes: 0
Received 104 Likes on 66 Posts
Originally Posted by WingNut60
I have just watched the SA Premier saying exactly the same. It's just that McGowan said it first.
VIC, SA and WA have all said it. QLD wan not allowed to participate in the national cabinet, but going to guess the official answer would have been no. Just a reminder gladys said no about sending vaccines to VIC earlier this year.
rattman is offline  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 02:20
  #6374 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Westside
Posts: 9
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Thanks for the graphs, MickG0105.

The potential benefits are every 16 weeks, so multiply that by 3.25 per year?

The question becomes what will the rate in the community be once we stop locking down (assuming that day will come, and acknowledging that Sydney is currently at the lower rate with restrictions).
MrScooter is offline  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 02:22
  #6375 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Eden Valley
Posts: 2,152
Received 92 Likes on 41 Posts
Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
If I'm currently at zero risk of contracting C-19, getting the vaccine exposes me to a risk to which I don't need to be exposed. In this wide brown land, it is possible to be at zero risk of contracting C-19 for protracted periods.
Evidently, you will get COVID eventually. And many more Australians will die from it.

What worries me is people like yourself who may demand the continued shutting of borders and other damaging economic actions.

So can you sing from the rooftops, I'm not going to get vaccinated, but please open up the borders for others' sakes?
Gnadenburg is online now  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 02:44
  #6376 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
Posts: 5,284
Received 416 Likes on 207 Posts
You evidently haven't been able to review what I've said previously in this thread, Gnadenberg, or I haven't expressed myself clearly enough.

I don't know whether I support the lockdowns and border closures, because I don't know how much they cost. What I do know is that they cost an enormous amount, and Australia is merely delaying the inevitable. I think the NSW Treasurer committed a political heresy the other day, by effectively acknowledging the fact that the ever-increasing enormous costs may not be worth the lives saved. (It is a fact that we weigh up costs against lives every day. That's why, for example, there continue to be suicide deaths in prisons. We as a society have decided we're not going spend any more money to make all prisons suicide proof.)

I didn't say I wasn't going to get vaccinated. I will get vaccinated when the personal risk mitigating steps I'm taking against contracting C-19 are not sufficient, thus justifying my taking the risk of the vaccine. I hope by that stage that every essential worker and person in aged care has been vaccinated.
Lead Balloon is online now  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 03:02
  #6377 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Asia
Posts: 3
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
I didn't say I wasn't going to get vaccinated. I will get vaccinated when the personal risk mitigating steps I'm taking against contracting C-19 are not sufficient, thus justifying my taking the risk of the vaccine. I hope by that stage that every essential worker and person in aged care has been vaccinated.

Seems to be a common idea amongst Australians now , Iíll get vaccinated when I feel my health is sufficiently threatened in my opinion ?
We are at war with delta , the economy is taking hit after hit , the country is closed for business and states at each otherís throats . The only answer we have at the moment long term is to get the bulk of Australia vaccinated and open it up .

Australia is defiantly the lucky country but not sure if itís better to be lucky or smart at the moment .

No more excuses .

Letting wife or girlfriend ( or both ) take the birth control pill monthly that has higher chance of getting a blood clot than the A-Z vaccination and saying Iím not getting vaccinated as risks are too high while country is on its knees ?

Last edited by Torukmacto; 24th Jul 2021 at 03:15.
Torukmacto is offline  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 03:11
  #6378 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Australia/India
Posts: 5,284
Received 416 Likes on 207 Posts
Gosh, another one arising from my evident inability to make my point clearly enough.

So I'm sitting here in my homestead in the middle of my 10,000 square km property. Fridge and freezers full of good food, great beer and even better wine. Girlfriend by my side. Reliable and fast NBN. Dam full of water. Shed full of fuel for my generator, 4WD and aircraft.

Walk me through why it's sensible for me to travel into town where the risk of me contracting C-19 changes from zero to not-zero, so as to take a risk - irrespective of its probabilities - of death through blood clots.

Who exactly am I helping by taking the risk of the vaccination now? Who exactly, Torukmacto?
Lead Balloon is online now  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 03:51
  #6379 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Westside
Posts: 9
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
You argue from a very unique position, Lead Balloon. For the rest of us it looks like inevitably it will be in everybody's personal interest (as well as the community interest) to get vaccinated, with the only debatable category being the very young. We can't start opening up until most of us are vaccinated and we can't all decide the personal risk is such that we should get vaccinated on the same day. What if everyone turned up at the boarding gate at -5? No-one is late?
MrScooter is offline  
Old 24th Jul 2021, 04:03
  #6380 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tent
Posts: 916
Received 19 Likes on 12 Posts
Originally Posted by Gnadenburg
None of the reluctant vaxers have answered my question as to whether they've lost their livelihoods in aviation due COVID.

So can I ask the following?

- Would you expect and take a government handout as an aviation worker whilst preaching a reluctant vaccination stance?

- Will you accept the opening of borders despite you and I take it your family, not being vaccinated?
I am not an anti vaxer.

I currently have not had a COVID vax nor do I currently plan to (Never had a flu jab either).

My simple understanding of COVID 19 is there are a group of people that are high risk of getting very sick or dying if they catch it - For this I say they need our help with border closures (state and national) until the have the chance to be vaccinated.
Same measures also until all front line workers have the option to get vaccinated.

After this point we can open fully internally (nationally)and give the option to all secondary contact workers that want it to get it, followed by general public getting it if they want it. 3 months after this fully open every border.

IF the vaccines prevented people from catching COVID and being able to transmit it to others - my opinion would be different. If we of the non "High Risk" status wish to risk getting sicker or even die from catching it - bad luck, we had the option. But we have given the chance for every one to get vaccinated if they wish, high rick or not.


If the government closes my work - as a tax payer, I expect compensation for that. Vaccine does not prevent COVID or its spread.

Members of my family (non high risk) have been vaccinated, they have their reasons.
Bend alot is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.