Monarch - 3

[Johnny F@rt Pants]

Yes they are. Let's hope they won't be needed, tomorrow will tell.

[Rushed Approach]

The Cosmos brand could only be used a certain amount of time as a condition of sale by the Mantegazzas after the 2014 restructure.

As for Monarch's flights being 20-30% more expensive that FR or easy, that is nonsense by that "analyst" - Monarch's prices are led by the two bigger rivals and there is only a small premium you can charge extra before people just won't pay it. Monarch's EBITDAR is one of the most competitive of any airline in the world, and is a measure of the efficiency of the airline in controlling its costs, which are comparable with FR and easy. The difference is cash - both FR and easy have huge cash piles, whereas Monarch's is more modest - it takes years of profitablility to build these up, and this has been a difficult year because of Brexit (exchange rate hit) and terrorism (e.g. Sharm and Turkey issues leading to oversupply on Spain, etc with only a fixed amount of accom there).

Monarch do hedge fuel substantially again now, although it's true that as part of the 2014 sale the then in-place hedges had to be unwound, hence there was fortunate timing for Greybull when the price subsequently dropped. Hedging protects you from increases in the oil price, hence why any sound management would re-hedge as cash becomes available.

For those not aware the CAA seeks a bond (cash or equivalent) from the airline for an ATOL certificate and from its point of view it wants that bond to be as high as possible since it retains it if the airline goes under. The airline/shareholders would argue that they have better uses for the cash and so seek to minimise the bond in those negotiations. It may be that this year the CAA are being more cautious with terrorism and Brexit risks as it sees them, and you never actually know what is going to be asked for until you get in the room with all the interested parties and their advisors.

[lotus1]

Just had a email from monarch advertising flights for next year? Let's just hope everything is ok would not like see anyone loose there job

[Brigantee]

Interesting post rushed approach , Nice To read something from someone whom appears to know a little about what they are talking about

I use both monarch and easyjet and have to say there is never much in the pricing betwixt the two

[ericlday]

Have recently used Monarch on a return trip to TFS as they were considerably cheaper than Ryanair and I could understand all cabin and flight deck announcements in proper English.

[Brigantee]

Yes they always provide a great service I have to say They somehow seem a little bit more upmarket than the others

[NotoriousREV]

Fingers crossed. My personal, unfounded opinion is that a business without an ATOL licence is going to be a lot cheaper than one with and so a bunch of canny suits will be happy to let it fail.

[EZYA319]

Anyone tell me how many aircraft MON have based at BHX? And if possible the break down of A320/321's? Thanks in advance.

[zbobserver]

Think people are getting confused about the ATOL. "Normally" airlines do not require ATOL licences to sell seats, only if they add another component, effectively making it a holiday. However I belive the reason the ATOL for First Aviation is so large is because of the near failure a couple of years back of ZB, the CAA insisted Monarch had an ATOL licence in place due to the size of the risk of their failure to consumers. Effectively they had to join the ATOL scheme for every single seat sold, I guess because their balance sheet was shot to bits and therefore would not have met the criteria to hold an AOC due to financial fitness. This is why he ATOL is so pivotal in all of this, because if due to ongoing concerns about financial fitness the CAA do not feel they can issue a renewal, then It would be game over. No ATOL no fly, AOC revoked and that's it. I can only assume there is a game of brinkmanship going on and perhaps that lays at the door of the management, who have been saying for some time they need cash, else they can't get through the winter with a notion that "it'll be alright as Greybull will step if if nobody else does" maybe, just maybe Greybull have already filled their boots and don't want to be last chance saloon, when they've already maybe had their pound of flesh and maybe the management sat on their laurels not being concerned that nobody else (buyer, lender or institution) would put their hands in their pockets because good old Greybull would step up to the plate and maybe, just maybe Greybull don't want to and hence why the CAA are spooked. Seems to me that although CAA may have jumped the gun on the actions it looks like they have taken, maybe there was (and remains) good reason for them taking the decision - if nothing else it's probably brought the whole thing to a head. I feel for the staff but by the looks of it, since the management recognised the cash flow hole some time back, their lack of visibility to the regulator on how the hole would be filled is quite probably the cause of all this. Let's hope there is a white knight out there, but whatever happens the same will play out this time next year too. EBITDAR is all well and good but for all we know the "I" in EBITDAR on loan payments to Greybull or depreciation might more than wipe out the £40m reported EBITDAR.

[toledoashley]

Rushed Approach, Would be interested on your thoughts on this... Monarch is quite unique now in selling seat only online with bonding under an ATOL. Is this a requirement imposed on them? (as this adds £2.50 to the selling price). Could they consolidate under one ATOL to reduce cost?

[zbobserver]

Remember in this game cash is king

[MKY661]

Anyone tell me how many aircraft MON have based at BHX? And if possible the break down of A320/321's? Thanks in advance.

3x A320 & 7x A321 (one A321 on Standby).

[Buster the Bear]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/29/monarch-scrambles-for-time-ahead-of-flying-licence-deadline?

[clearanceoverthekeys]

Schedule in for both of the united 747's to go to Frankfurt Hahn tomorrow as UA2140/2141

[RHINO]

Military trooping flights?

[Ivan aromer]

Unlikely they would use Rhine Main AB

[daikilo]

Dear Guardian,


Are you sure about what you have written? Are you refering to an operating licence for Monarch Airline or the ATOL for Monarch Holidays?

[Paddyc]

Confusion reigns.
I do not think that Monarch scheduled flights are covered by ATOL. An ATOL certificate must be issued at the time of booking and certainly this has not happened on my next three bookings. From memory ATOL certificates have not been issued for over a year.
Bookings with Avro are covered by ATOL. Bookings for flight plus accommodation are covered by ATOL. Packages are covered by ATOL.

[clearanceoverthekeys]

I don't know what they are, there are still schedules for flights to the UK too.

As a bit of coincidental irony, given their current positions, I found this paragraph on the telegraph website (from 27 March this year):

A spokesman for Monarch denied that there is a "sale process" underway but said, "Monarch has sought the assistance of Deutsche Bank who will look at both inbound and outbound opportunities."

[runawayedge]

Such a difficult time for all, compounded by the fact that negative trading publicity will impact credit terms with suppliers, fuel companies, handling agents, airports etc. Have been there before and thankfully came out the other side. Have to say there are people on this thread that need to look at themselves in the mirror. You may discover that there is no depth to shallowness. Best of luck to all at Monarch, I know it's not easy!

[Copenhagen]

And the irony is that deutesch bank is on the verge of collapse.

[Rushed Approach]

zbobserver, I'm not aware of any such extra restriction on the ATOL and indeed if that were the case one would expect all flights to be ATOL protected, which I don't believe is the case for flight only inbound to UK flights for example.

If you buy an airline these days you look at its EBITDAR. If it's OK then you may make money, but only if the balance sheet has sufficient cash to ride several 10s of £m either side of what your business plan forecasts (100s of £m for national carrier size airlines). Changes in fuel price, exchange rates and market conditions can easily mean you have a rough ride.

As an investor you need deep pockets and faith in the company if you are going to reap the rewards over the longer term. The 737 MAX 8 deal with Boeing should further improve Monarch's finances very significantly, but of course it has to get to the point where the maintentenance and fuel saving costs feed through to build the balance sheet, and in the mean time finance will have to be raised.

You cannot buy an airline and not put in a sufficient cash buffer and expect to ride out even normal cyclical changes, let alone those seen recently. Easy and FR for example ride out such cycles all the time, but nobody notices as their cash reserves are more than adequate for the nature of the business in hand.

As with any business, ultimately cash is king.

[janeyTA]

I do not think that Monarch scheduled flights are covered by ATOL. An ATOL certificate must be issued at the time of booking and certainly this has not happened on my next three bookings. From memory ATOL certificates have not been issued for over a year.
Bookings with Avro are covered by ATOL. Bookings for flight plus accommodation are covered by ATOL. Packages are covered by ATOL.


Monarch scheduled flights booked on their website are Atol protected, and they issue an Atol certificate. I've just flown Monarch and one of the flights was only booked a few weeks prior, and yes I got Atol certificates for all of them.

Monarch bookings done via Avro used to be for charter flights, but Monarch no longer operate any charter flights. Now Avro is just an advertising platform for shonky OTAs to advertise on.

[Wickerbill]

There is some right old :mad: being posted I this thread. If you don't know, keep your gob shut.

[Wickerbill]

Oh and it's EBITDA no R. As in earnings before interest,tax, and non cash items depreciation and amortisation. It's a measure of cash generated, not profit.

[Rushed Approach]

There certainly is. You could always Google it. The R (for "Rent" of aircraft) takes in the cost of leases.

From Wiki:

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and restructuring or rent costs (EBITDAR) is a non-GAAP metric that can be used to evaluate a company's financial performance.

EBITDAR = revenue – expenses (excluding tax, interest, depreciation, amortization and rent costs)

EBITDAR can be of use when comparing two companies in the same industry with different structure of their assets. For example, consider two nursing home companies: one company rents its nursing homes and the other owns its homes and thus does not pay rent but instead has to make capital expenditures that are not necessarily of the same order of magnitude as the depreciation. By looking at EBITDAR, one can compare the efficiency of the companies' operations, without regard to the structure of their assets.

Some companies use an EBITDAR where "R" indicates "Rinel Costs". While this analysis of profits before restructuring costs is also helpful, such a metric should better be termed 'adjusted EBITDA'.

Related to EBITDAR is "EBITDAL", "rent costs" being replaced by "lease costs".

[Rushed Approach]

So it's actually more relevant to airlines as it is a benchmark regardless of whether the airline leases or owns its aircraft, or does a combination of the two.

[DC9_10]

I have flown Monarch back in day of the 757 and A300 many times between Manchester and Alicante. Always booked through AVRO. They were just the usual charter airline and never thought anything great or outstanding about them. Nowadays, I would never consider booking a flight with them. Think times have changed and better deals can be had and I find jet2 holidays hard to beat. I think that's their problem. People see them as old and expensive and to a certain extent legacy. Just my opinion.

[FANS]

It's in very few peoples interest to not at least extend the deadline if that's required.

If monarch bring in e.g. The Chinese gorilla , this episode will soon be a distant memory and monarch could flourish .

I do find it telling that greybull haven't coughed up and avoided this weeks nightmare .

[FANS]

But it's before rental . Ebitdar allows you to compare airlines that operating lease aircraft vs airlines that finance lease, debt finance or just own the fleet .

I.e. 2 airlines both make £10m ebitda , but one pays operating leases of 6m, the other has borrowed money to buy them and the interest cost is obviously excluded from ebitda . The 10m figure is misleading as in one airline it includes the fleet , but in the other excludes .

[lotus1]

On checking alicante flight arrivals half an hour ago for to day I have noticed the mystery ghost flights up against the monarch flights United airline flight numbers one against gatwick and this strange one cancelled from Tenerife but all the rest of the monarch flights running as normal?

[KelvinD]

Lotus1: Are you getting this info from FR24? If so, take no notice. I don't know where they get their info from but, if you look across the board at these United flights, they appear to be utilising Quantum physics, flying from one airport to another then departing a 3rd airport without making the inbound flight to the 3rd airport. Incidentally, N116UA is currently over southern France, heading for Hahn. ALC arrivals show UA2295 due in from PMI in the next 5 minutes. Except it hasn't flown anywhere yet. Similarly, UA2294 is due in from Manchester soon. That makes 2 UA flights expected at ALC, yet one of the 2 is en route to Hahn. Incidentally, both United 744s were booked into LGW yesterday and that didn't happen.

[chaders]

The United 747 was sat down in TFS yesterday. Guessing the crew are enjoying their European break at the expense of the CAA.

[Flightmech]

Ivan aromer
Rhein Main? I doubt it. It closed in Dec 2005. Ramstein is the only AMC base now. HHN does accept military traffic.

[KyleRB]

The CAA are really flexing their muscles with this whole saga! Putting the whole Titan fleet, much of Air Tanker and the US stuff on standby at CAA expense is a real statement of intent. Someone must have really pissed them off! I guess the ATOL renewal time is their only opportunity to assert themselves as regulator.

[eggc]

The next hour may hold news (12 noon)...we'll see...

[HeartyMeatballs]

It's all lovely having an armada of foreign aircraft on standby should the worst happen. But would it not be a better use of resources to simply call in the charters if/when Monarch goes the way of the Dodo?

At worst you'll need to wait a day or so and your only expense would be extra nights in hotels, not the expense of large aircraft flying half way around the the world 'just in case'.

The ATOL protecrion scheme is a finite resource. It should be reserved and not squandered on jollies for dozens of air crews and air craft.

[JSCL]

Indeed, it does seem strange.

I can't help but wonder if the CAA has reservations about other another ATOL holder or even holders due for renewal too. It's a lot of capacity, even just for ferrying Monarch's passengers.

[Wycombe]

much of Air Tanker

Only the civvy-regged ones, one would assume? One of which has been sat around at BHX quite a bit recently AFAIK.

[KyleRB]

I agree but this is a real statement of intent from the CAA to make a big point! There's more to this than meets the eye I feel!

[HeartyMeatballs]

The CAAs job shouldnot be to make a point. Millions should not be wasted to make a point. It's vital money that should be spent wisely. As a country we are lucky to have the protection and therefore every effort should be made to protect the money in the pot.

I have everything crossed for Monarch. However we had the Sunday night saga and today there seem to be aircraft joining those already on standby. Did any of the charters go back after being stood down or am I correct in thinking that most are still in Europe and have been joined by English airlines today?

Reluctantly, I think we should all be prepared for the worst.

[Buster the Bear]

http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/63304/monarch-in-talks-with-caa-over-extending-licensing-agreement

[Steve_68]

The CAA clearly cannot win. If an airline folds (heavens forbid), leaving thousands of passengers stranded abroad and repatriation aircraft are not readily available to act fast, the CAA would be in the firing line for mismanaging the situation and failing to deliver on its ATOL duty. I don't think it has anything to do with the CAA flexing its muscles. Personally, I feel encouraged that the CAA has taken a proactive approach on this, in an effort meet one of its primary purposes; to protect consumers.

[KyleRB]

From my reliable source the CAA are trying to make a point with Monarch but more likely Greybull and unfortunately Monarch is caught in the middle.

[FANS]

Given the worry that ?Monarch is putting its customers through (and staff), it clearly couldn't give a monkeys .

I can't see why it takes this long to get an extension

[HeartyMeatballs]

I should imagine the investors are trying to get away with pumping as little money in as possible. GreyBull will have lots of cash in the bank however will likely want to risk as little of that as possible. Perhaps they know something we don't.

[FANS]

Bookings must be very low now - is deadline midnight ?

[KyleRB]

We have no idea of what is going on behind closed doors so yes Greybull and all parties involved obviously know lots we don't! My hunch is they will sell all or part of Monarch to a much larger investor who has long term ambitions for the airline. Greybull were only ever in it short term.

[KyleRB]

Actually booking are holding up!

[toledoashley]

FANS - On the new Luton to Stockholm route, there was a pop-up which said "0 bookings made in the last 6 days', which has now disappeared. Extreme, but indicative of the network as a whole?

[eggc]

Tweets from MON have changed tone in last 15 mins. Now stopped saying all operating as normal to replies such as "we'll update you as soon as we can" and "we'll DM you". They need to clear this up fast.

[cornishsimon]

If this airline does go down the pan I think it will be partly because of social media and press speculation. Even if things don't go t**s up for ZB, please consider what all the speculation etc is doing to forward bookings.

Some on this site and other would seem to be pleased if and when ZB fail, I can't imagine why. Please think of the staff, customers and everyone this will have a knoc-on effect on if ZB fail.

[wallp]

Well said!

[janeyTA]

I couldn't agree more.

[HeartyMeatballs]

I disagree that it's social media that's caused it. Monarch has been terminally ill for a long time. It's currently having its dressings changed for the Nth time. Wether it survives or not is anyone's guess.

There's never smoke without fire. Sunday night's incident was not a fleet of cruise or hajj charters positioning into place that caused the problem. It was symptomatic of the problems at MON. Before the days of social media people would be blissfully unaware. Now is a time for planning next years holiday. Hard working families could potentially be risking thousands of their hard earned pounds and could be throwing them down the drain. The working man and woman is responsible only to their families and their bank accounts, not the employees or shareholders in Greybull.

Let's not forget Phill was saying that all was hunky dory the day before XL went bust. And didn't he then go on to front several other travel firms that went under taking thousands of hard working people's money with them?

[111KAB]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/30/monarch-airlines-crisis-talks-extend-flying-licence-atol-package-holidays


"Luton-based airline has until midnight to show it has enough funds to keep flying for three months, a condition of Atol award"

[Falcon666]

Sadly the simple truth is my friends who work at Monarch are expecting to hear any news from Social media first before anything officially internally.

[janeyTA]

Tweets from MON have changed tone in last 15 mins. Now stopped saying all operating as normal to replies such as "we'll update you as soon as we can" and "we'll DM you". They need to clear this up fast.

No they haven't. Stock answer is still "we will announce details as soon as we can, but please be assured flights are operating as normal" or "We will update customers as soon as we can, and all of our flights are running as normal".

[wondrousbitofrough]

'there's no smoke without fire'

Doesn't mean that people on this board should fuel that fire though, after all, we are all in the same industry. Whatever happened to having each others backs?

[HH6702]

Twitter team just replied to someone saying Manchester to dalaman on Monday has 78 spare seats.

I know turkey hasn't been selling but speaking to crew from another airline there flights have been going out nearly full.

Just hope this is a one off and other flights are full

[HeartyMeatballs]

Well this mess is certainly not the fault of Twitter and Facebook.

I don't recall any social medial speculation prior to this weekend. Therefore whatever went down on Sunday night was nothing to do with social media.

[HH6702]

Any monarch workers on here can confirm any commucation from managers that there job is safe and not to worry?

[HeartyMeatballs]

To be honest I lost all hope in them a long time ago.

Recognising there's a problem - GOOD
Getting rid of the A330s to simply the fleet - GOOD
Reinvesting as a proper low cost airline - GOOD
Opening Leeds - BRAVE
Announcing they're going to replace the entire fleet with 737s - WTF?

For too long the airline has just plodded along the once the family decided enough was enough they were up the creek without a paddle. They try turn things around, and then some bright spark comes up with the idea of wasting billions on a new type, a type that does 99% of the same missions that the current fleet does.

I have zero faith in the management. It's a very sad situation. I have flown with them many times and hope to do so again.

[HH6702]

Easyjet went from Boeing to Airbus so I wouldn't say stupid.
However Easyjet probs had a lot more money in the bank and was a much bigger offer than monarchs 30 aircraft

[Crosswind Limits]

Falcon666

That's not true my friend. We get regular updates so fully expect to hear before it goes viral on social media.

The 737 max order was under the previous owners I believe. Not that keen on it to be honest. Yes the previous owners put money in but actually took more out! Anyway that's history.

Fingers crossed.

Right off to southern Spain! ;)

[FANS]

It's always someone elses fault isn't it.

The ATOL deadline has only been known about for 12 months!

[daynehold]

The social media speculation over the last fee days surrounding the future of Monarch is nothing short of deplorable. Apart from being damaging to the airline and it's potential passengers spare a thought for the feelings of the Company's employees. Sadly the behaviour of these hovering vultures is all too familiar in the airline industry.

[HeartyMeatballs]

Easyjet switched to AB during a period of growth and not when it was on the brink of a massive restructure. EJ was a LCC before the AB order and after continued to be the same LCC afterwards. It is not the same thing.

[FANS]

The company could easily bring an end to the speculation by releasing further information and press releases, or better still by paying up on ATOL. The CEO could even make a statement.

I'd say the company's attitude to its customers & employees is nothing short of deplorable.

[Falcon666]

Crosswind Limits
Agree that's the way the company should work but will it with so much media attention- we shall see, definite fingers crossed!!

[Crosswind Limits]

FANS

You are clearly not keen on Monarch. You are entitled to your opinion. However please get your facts in order before hitting send. The decision is now with the CAA and we are all waiting for news. FACT!

[HeartyMeatballs]

It's awful. I think it's deliberate mismanagement. I only hope that someone buys them and absorbs them. Yes it would be sad to see the brand go, but I can't help but worry about the employees. There's a lot of talent at MON who deserve a lot better.

Although the planes still have Monarch written on the side - the actually company today is not the same as what it was and the people I know that are there are somewhat less pro Monarch than they were five years ago.

I'm certain that we will hear soon. I don't see anyone in the CAA missing out on an early Friday afternoon flyer. Yes the deadline is midnight - but I don't for one minute think we will have to wait until then.

[Buster the Bear]

The airline certainly seems not to have any direct control over its future, otherwise there would have been a robust statement from the management hierarchy.

I would suggest that Monarch finds itself in the this predicament not due to social media rumours. I am hopeful that there will be an announcement confirming that it is business as usual today, the ATOL issue has been resolved and we can look forward to flying with Monarch for many years to come.

[FANS]

The decision is now with the CAA and we are all waiting for news. FACT!

Really? I'd suggest its a negotiation that taking place between the CAA and Monarch, and if Monarch coughed up now (or days or weeks ago), this speculation would end.

No other airline seems to be having these problems at the moment, so rather than blame the CAA and social media, could it not be Monarch's fault...

[trebor]

FANS - You have no idea and obviously anti monarch in a big way!

[FANS]

trebor - only too happy to be corrected. If Monarch paid up, would its ATOL be renewed?

[eye2eye5]

Unless things have changed recently, high value payments must be made before the 4 pm cut off. Friday end of month carries particularly high volumes for house purchase etc. Renewal of ATOL should not be left to the last second and would have been known about since the last renewal.

[HeartyMeatballs]

So when will we know? I don't know a great deal about ATOL. Could it be that ATOL has already been renewed? Is this sort of thing announced when it is paid? I'm just thinking that it may all be paid up.

[111KAB]

HM .... it was around midnight last time and the news did not really appear until the following day > CAA grants Monarch ATOL extension (http://www.travelmole.com/news_feature.php?news_id=2013441)

[Wickerbill]

The CAA could always grant an extension if so minded. If its a matter of waiting for bond money / guarantees and there is a mechanism for this to happen, the CAA may choose to wait rather than do anything too precipitous.

[Fletch]

It looks like there is more to it than just paying a bond though.

The CAA seem to take an in depth look at the holders finances.

https://www.caa.co.uk/ATOL-protection/Trade/Maintain-and-renew-your-ATOL/ATOL-financial-criteria/

With Monarch publicly looking for a cash injection for a few months, and publicly stating it again this week, it is perhaps not unsurpring the action the CAA have taken.

Good luck to all all involved. An unsettling time for all the guys and girls involved.

[Heathrow Harry]

Any news this afternoon?

[MonarchOrBust]

To think such a serious matter/affair can be allowed to go to the wire says a lot of about the management and the chances for Monarch's survival. £40 million profit won't even last a couple of months in the winter. It means nothing. So anyone who thinks this is an indication of a healthy airline really doesn't know the industry well enough. Time to get real. The Chinese are silent and Greybull weary of investing the right amount. It is my opinion that the ATOL license is about to be pulled.

Monarch licence still ‘up in the air’ hours before it expires
Monarch licence still ?up in the air? hours before it expires (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/30/monarch-licence-still-up-in-the-air-hours-before-it-expires/)

Monarch in crisis talks to extend flying licence for package holidays
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/30/monarch-airlines-crisis-talks-extend-flying-licence-atol-package-holidays

[HeartyMeatballs]

Well, all the best to all of the crew and staff there. I'm really hoping for the best however and that it will be business as usual come Monday.

[Buster the Bear]

I couldn't agree more Hearty.

[MonarchOrBust]

Crisis talks in progress right now with CAA top chiefs, Monarch CEO and Greybull brothers at the CAA right now trying to prove they have the funds to continue operations. CAA will be working out how £40 million profit gained over summer will last over the hard winter. With Monarch not really big on the winter sun destinations like other airlines (who also continue to make a loss), it is likely the ATOL license will be pulled. Of course they can continue to sell flights until they declare themselves bankrupt as the AOC will be valid (you don't need to be financially sound to have an AOC).

[embraerFObmi]

As an ex bmi pilot I empathise fully with the Monarch crews, and wish them the best. It is hard to not think about this when flying in the "office".

I played over in my mind all the possible outcomes for bmi, and am sure you will all be doing the same.

We found out our fate at bmi via social media and the press before management told us, and I expect Monarch to do the same.

All that I can offer is that despite not knowing what is happening, or will happen, there will be other jobs out there for the right people in other airlines, and to remain positive.

Lets hope Monarch is saved in the 11th hour. MOL predicted years ago that there would be 5 major UK airlines left. After the demise of bmi, XL, flighline etc I am worried he may be right...

Fingers crossed.

ps- I did my stint in the sandpit after bmi, and have finally returned to europe after 4 years- so I empathise with any drivers and families that this may affect.

[testpanel]

(you don't need to be financially sound to have an AOC)

Are you sure about that??

[His dudeness]

Are you sure about that??

IIRC you have to have 80.000 Euros basically cash. Thats more or less it.

Friend of mine had his AOC pulled cause he didn´t have the 80K. He operated a single CJ1. Same day Condor announced losses of 320 Mio....

[FANS]

MoB - how sure are you about your last post - are you in the meeting room?!

[JB007]

I am so disappointed to say I think he's spot on! God I thought these days were behind us!

[FANS]

But there must also be political pressure to at least extend the deadline. The twitter a/c is still very positive

[WindSheer]

To think Monarch could actually go?
We can speculate around the disruption for pax...short term loss. But let's hope it doesn't happen for all the employees. Dreadful!

Unless of course a rescue 'buy out/merge' comes out of the woodwork. Now that would be one hell of a coincidence......

[FANS]

Yes - and that's probably plan A given Greybull have had weeks to offer their golden assistance.

Alternative is to convert to a bank, and then the government will bail you out.

[Right Way Up]

All I can say is good luck to all at Monarch. Until you have been through this you have no idea how horrible it is!

I truly hope things work out for you.

[Johnny F@rt Pants]

Why oh why does it always end up going to the wire? Whoever is responsible for this at Monarch is responsible for some dreadful stress that their employees are suffering. Let's all hope that the results of this evenings discussions at the CAA are positive, none of us want to see any airline do down the swanny.

[eggc]

Joe Lynam BBC Biz Verified account
‏@BBC_Joe_Lynam

@Monarch has received significant further investment from s/holders. Close to announcing the largest investment in its 48-year history

CAA grants @Monarch a temporary Atol licence extension for two weeks to allow backers to raise "largest investment in its 48-year history."

John Moylan
‏@JohnMoylanBBC
@Monarch says has successfully concluded discussions with the Civil Aviation Authority to extend its ATOL licence

[hampshireandy]

fantastic news! And not just because im flying with them tomorow morning!

[alwayzinit]

According to SKY news at 2010 bst Monarch has reached agreement with the CAA to continue trading.
So looks like good news for all concerned.

[LysanderV8]

Deal agreed with the CAA for the ATOL according to Sky

[toledoashley]

https://www.ttgmedia.com/news/news/monarch-reaches-atol-licence-agreement--7058

[WindSheer]

Speculation over:

“I am delighted that we have been able to come to an agreement with the CAA on the extension of Monarch’s ATOL licence and am excited about the additional capital coming into the group which will help us fund our future growth. I am immensely proud of the professionalism of the Monarch team.”

[janeyTA]

It's fanstastic news for all concerned, especially the employees.

Monarch reaches ATOL licence agreement and secures funding - Monarch Blog (http://blog.monarch.co.uk/monarch-reaches-atol-licence-agreement-and-secures-funding/)

[Ivan aromer]

Does look good but are they just kicking the can down the street?

[bill b]

Fab ✈️✈️✈️👍🍺🍺

[Right Way Up]

Great news ....hope those at Monarch can enjoy their weekend ;) after a tough couple of weeks.

[toledoashley]

A bit of confusion by the sounds of things - they are now going back on it and saying it is just an extension.

[clearanceoverthekeys]

This is very far from over.

“The CAA has granted Monarch a 12 day extension to its existing ATOL licences. The extended licences will now expire at 23:59 on 12 October 2016.

“The CAA was able to do this by requiring the shareholder to provide additional funding and because customers' money will be protected.

“Monarch now has 12 days to satisfy the CAA that the group is able to meet the requirements for a full ATOL licence.

“Monarch will remain ATOL licensed until this extension expires.

“The CAA always advises consumers to ensure they book ATOL-protected air holidays and consumers who choose to book an ATOL-protected flight or holiday with the company during this time will continue to be protected by the ATOL scheme.

“During this period of extension, the CAA will continue to monitor the company.”

[paully]

Very good news, there will be some very relieved families tonight. I do hope Monarch can get the funding in and I have no doubt it will continue to be a difficult road, but for now lets all be happy with the news and one of Britains oldest established Airline continues to fly :D:ok:

[janeyTA]

The announcement on their website says it's an extension, and it's still great news. The CAA wouldn't have granted it if they weren't pretty damn sure that the investment was forthcoming.

[Brigantee]

Fantastic news lets hope they get some decent investment

[lotus1]

Very good news good news for employees

[Buster the Bear]

Breaking News
Monarch reaches Atol agreement

[Buster the Bear]

And now the best news of all!

Budget airline Monarch has received an extension to its licence to operate, the company has announced.
It also said it had received "significant" further investment and was close to announcing the biggest investment in its 48-year history.
The news came just ahead of a midnight deadline for the renewal of its Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) licence .
Last weekend Monarch was forced to deny "negative speculation" about its financial health.
On Saturday Monarch is due to operate 133 outbound and inbound flights, and passengers have been expressing their concerns about what was going to happen on social media.
The airline employs around 2,800 staff and is based at Luton Airport.
Monarch is protected by the CAA's Air Travel Organisers' Licensing (Atol) scheme - the scheme that refunds customers if a travel firm collapses, and ensures they are not stranded.
But for the licence to be renewed, allowing it to continue to trade, the airline had to prove that it was financially robust.
Monarch has been majority-owned by Greybull Capital since 2014, when the investment firm bought a 90% stake in the airline.
Greybull also bought a division of Tata Steel this year, as well as 140 M Local convenience stores from Morrisons, which subsequently went into administration.

[Buster the Bear]

Travel Weekly understands the airline has been granted a two-week extension.

[FANS]

Great news for the employees & customers - disgraceful they were ever put through this.

The Monarch press release talks about extending the ATOL license, which I took to mean for 12 months. The CAA talks of only 12 days however.

It seems Greybull coughed up with a full 4 hours to spare, and hopefully new backers and a new management team will come on board to professionalise this shambles.

[JB007]

Fantastic news! Just brilliant!

[daikilo]

Beware, this is what the CAA say in the media release:


“The CAA has granted Monarch a 12 day extension to its existing ATOL licences. The extended licences will now expire at 23:59 on 12 October 2016.
“The CAA was able to do this by requiring the shareholder to provide additional funding and because customers' money will be protected.
“Monarch now has 12 days to satisfy the CAA that the group is able to meet the requirements for a full ATOL licence.
“Monarch will remain ATOL licensed until this extension expires.
“The CAA always advises consumers to ensure they book ATOL-protected air holidays and consumers who choose to book an ATOL-protected flight or holiday with the company during this time will continue to be protected by the ATOL scheme.
“During this period of extension, the CAA will continue to monitor the company.”


https://www.caa.co.uk/News/CAA-statement-on-the-extension-of-Monarch-ATOL-licences-(30-September-2016)/


It is not new ATOL, it is an extension of the existing one.

[Brigantee]

Good news ,This is going to cause bitter disappointment to one or two on here...Wonder whos putting the cash in apart from greybull

[FANS]

Greybull are putting in the emergency interim funding now, with the bigger fundraising still to be confirmed hence the 2 week only extension.

It's great news for the staff, but Greybull could have done this weeks ago.

[Brigantee]

Rumour its a new investor putting in the extra investment

[TBSC]

OK, extension granted, let's assume that the licence will be renewed eventually.

Now, what does the future hold? Not very rosy expectations on UK package holidays (brexit, GBP x-rate, Egypt, Turkey, Tunisia, ISIS, you name it); fuel price most probably up after the recent developments; rather pricey type change to the 737 (trainings, double spare stock etc); fierce competition from other LoCos. What will be the selling point of Monarch if things did not work out in recent "better" times?

[hapzim]

could be certain swiss investors moving back in ... not that I believe in conspiracy theories........

[FANS]

If a new trade investor comes in, it can only get much better .

The current shambles brought it 4 hours hours away from disaster, so a new shareholder base and management team can only improve it.

[paully]

Indeed it is, but without a high level of satisfaction that the new finance deal will be got across the line and with multiple aircraft on standby to repatriate, I think its highly unlikely that such an extension would have been granted, don`t you agree?

[rudolf]

How is a 12 day extension 'fantastic news'? It's good news yes, but is it a stay of execution or a real commitment by Greybull? I really hope Monarch survive but this limbo status is not helping anyone whether they be consumer or employee.

[janeyTA]

How is a 12 day extension 'fantastic news'?

I take it you've never been told you're terminal? Any lifeline is fantastic. Do you really think the CAA would have granted another extension if they didn't think that the investment needed wasn't forthcoming?

[davidjohnson6]

On the one hand, this is good news all round. I've been through the redundancy thing and had a prolonged period out of work - I know it's not fun.
However this is a heavily regulated company for which safety is critical and which relies on consumer long term confidence to pay up front on a non-refundable basis for a service they will receive in several months time.

Maybe Greybull is the right owner to do major surgery on the company, but the whole set up right now leaves me feeling distinctly uneasy about the long term direction of Monarch. When hedge funds are cutting deals, you can be certain that asset stripping or taking large dividends out of the company in the short term will be on the agenda - long term investment in staff will be low on the priority list

[wallp]

The fact they've got an extension suggests the CAA has a degree of confidence about their financial stability going forward. With promises of major investment due to be announced let's hope they're heading into a happier place.

I know there's no room for sentiment in aviation but I've got a huge spot for
Monarch. They're one of the airlines I grew up with. They started at Luton in the year I was born and I've seen them in all their guises, from the Britannia's, Boeing 720's & BAC1-11's of the early fleets to the Airbuses of today.

Good luck to all at Monarch. Long may they remain!!

[gilesdavies]

Great to hear Monarch is potentially on the verge of getting another truck load of money to burn, for the next year or two.

I'm sure they'll have another business plan in place, to make things better. 😂

While Sky News, mentions the investment, it is barely a positive news report to quash passengers worry...

http://news.sky.com/story/monarch-airlines-handed-reprieve-to-fly-package-holidays-10600155

[FANS]

Everyone needed this to happen and not least government .

Let's get the new serious funding done, and a new team in place , and move on, as the brand has taken a massive hit . Equally the latest press release by monarch is not entirely clear , but I'd expect nothing more from the cow boys.

The caa should have a degree of comfort for this big funding, but it must have been close given only 4 hours left .

[cwatters]

Mentions some of the new funds might be used for "an order for 30 Boeing aircraft".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37524259

[mmcp42]

seems odd spending money on new planes if they're short of cash

[80P]

If someone books a 14 day holiday with Monarch today, are you not covered by ATOL for the last two days? If not who would book to go on holiday now?

[Brigantee]

Any news on who the other investor is and I wonder whats behind it all? Ploughing huge amounts into a airline that clearly has a fight on its hands in a very competive market is not a decision i imagine is taken lightly

They must see some opportunities in buying in .

[Field In Sight]

You are ATOL protected at the time of booking.

[KyleRB]

Yes it is intriguing who the new investor(s) might be but whoever they are, there will have to be significant investment and they will have to be committed to the airline's long term future.

Despite the fact Monarch has been scraping along the bottom for the last 2 years, it has a good brand, the oldest AOC, ETOPS approval, desirable slots, well trained crews and world class aircraft engineering. Apparently management has always been patchy but hopefully the not so capable will move on and leave those only competent in charge. Despite what some say here, I understand that Andrew Swaffield is one of the more capable at Monarch - his record is quite impressive at other companies.

However the fact remains, Monarch nearly went bust but thankfully they didn't and hopefully this is the dawn of a new era.

[daikilo]

A I understand, a holiday comany covered by ATOL has bookings protected when they are made, so a 2017 booking made up to 12th October will be covered (but Worth checking before you book).

It is still not obvious to me why some people seem to be mixing Monarch holidays with Monarch airline. If the claim is correct that there are 100000 holidaymakers currently on site, and there are 133 flights per day (presumably return flights) then around 4 days of return flying is needed for the Monarch fleet. This could suggest that over 50% of seats are actually for the Holidays arm, which is way above numbers I have seen elsewhere, and would suggest that the transition from IT to scheduled airline has not progressed as rapidly as some thought. I actually believe that the 100000 above may include traveller on other Airlines or with other Holiday companies suggestig that a higher percentage of seats are airline only.

As regards investors, from what I have read, there are only two, Greybull and the pension fund, so presumably addtional "current investors" money must have come from these two. However, are their investments in Monarch Holdings or split between the different parts of Monarch. Will the new investor replace one or other or be in addition to them.

Finally as the entire Monarch fleet is currently leased I would expect the 737s to be also, even if they are currently shown as an order for which commitment payments have probably been made. One way to release funds is to do some form of lease deal which could involve the lessor (or financier) making any future payments up to delivery. That said, the aircraft are for Monarch airline, not the Holiday company.

[runway08]

I would imagine Monarch engineering is a very attractive part of the project to invest in.

[Brigantee]

Ive heard it may be the company who own Hainan airways, However thsts only hearsay

[MonarchOrBust]

The Beeb's travel chief advising caution. Monarch are tweeting all is fixed, nothing to see here, move along now but the reality is this is simply an extension by a clearly very concerned (for job security) aviation authority whose liberty has been taken advantage of twice now. So far they are claiming they have investing/funding but there's no proof or detail of this.

[MonarchOrBust]

It's not over yet. The Beeb's travel chief advising caution. Monarch are tweeting all is fixed, nothing to see here, move along now but the reality is this is simply an extension by a clearly very concerned (for job security) aviation authority whose liberty has been taken advantage of twice now. So far they are claiming they have investing/funding but there's no proof or detail of this.

[Brigantee]

Cannot see them hoodwinking the CAA TBH , If they granted a extension based on this investment coming in then i imagine concrete evidence was required ...

[Richard Taylor]

FANS:

Government???

Monarch are a commercial company, they stand or fall as a commercial company. If they go down, other commercial companies take up the slack. Nothing to do the Govt.

But - I hope Monarch pull through.

[KyleRB]

I suspect there will be new ownership very soon with Greybull moving on or only playing a minor role. A foreign investor outside Europe seems very likely! It could be who people think - very interesting times ahead if this is true!

It's also pretty clear to anyone who knows anything about aviation that the CAA must be confident that Monarch have a solid future hence the extension to allow the new owner/investor to take over with a new ATOL certificate.

Hopefully this week we will know more!

[IB4138]

Already posted in R & N




“The CAA has granted Monarch a 12 day extension to its existing ATOL licences. The extended licences will now expire at 23:59 on 12 October 2016.
“The CAA was able to do this by requiring the shareholder to provide additional funding and because customers' money will be protected.
“Monarch now has 12 days to satisfy the CAA that the group is able to meet the requirements for a full ATOL licence.
“Monarch will remain ATOL licensed until this extension expires.
“The CAA always advises consumers to ensure they book ATOL-protected air holidays and consumers who choose to book an ATOL-protected flight or holiday with the company during this time will continue to be protected by the ATOL scheme.
“During this period of extension, the CAA will continue to monitor the company.”


https://www.caa.co.uk/News/CAA-state...ptember-2016)/

[KyleRB]

IB4138

Thanks we know about this! :ok:

[Brigantee]

If the new investors are from outside the EU then i believe a stake of 49 per cent is the maximum they could hold under present regulations

[KyleRB]

Richard

I think FANS has a point re the government. A high profile failure which could have been averted by huge foreign investment from outside Europe (especially post Brexit) would definitely involve government. This would seriously shake confidence in a crucial area of the economy.

We are open for business are we not!!?? ;)

[KyleRB]

Brigantee

Monarch is a private company so not sure that applies but happy to be corrected.

[Alloy]

Surely with post BREXIT the 49% maximum non-EU holding can be scrapped if the government so desires (it would tie in nicely with the theme of free trade) and thus Monarch with purely UK connections, unlike easyJet, Ryanair, IAG etc. may have a huge advantage by BREXIT in attracting non EU (Hainan?) investment?

[JobsaGoodun]

KyleRB,

I think Brigantee is correct. Delta were only able to purchase 49% of Virgin Atlantic and Virgin are a not public. I believe that EU rules limits non EU based companies to no more than 49%, however another EU based airline could invest more.

Happy to stand corrected if wrong. Until Brexit is complete the UK is still very much subject to EU rulings. I doubt the UK government would want to change the investment rulings anyway.

[wiggy]

Surely with post BREXIT the 49% maximum non-EU holding can be scrapped if the government so desires (it would tie in nicely with the theme of free trade)

But we haven't had BREXIT yet so the above is moot.

As has been said in the previous post this has to be done iaw with EU rules, which TBF has allowed the French and more importantly in the context of this thread the Chinese to partake in Funding Hinkley point.

[brakedwell]

But we haven't had BREXIT yet so the above is moot.

Ah, but BREXIT means BREXIT :ugh:

[Alloy]

There is nothing to be said that something legally binding can't be written into any sale contract to allow a controlling stake to be a purchase option in say 3 years time, i.e. post BREXIT so it could be highly relevant.

It could be held up as an example by the government of the advantages in post BREXIT and free trade by the government making the rules rather than the EU.

[Brigantee]

If indeed HNA are to be in the mix it will be interesting the see their take on what monarchs future direction will be

[FlyANA]

Being at MON last time round the extension was just that, an extension because no deal had been made but it seemed possible.

Fingers crossed the MON staff get a good deal with the next investors. The deal with grey bull was massive redundancies and 30% pay cuts. Would hate to see the staff go through that again to satisfy another potential investor.

[Uplinker]

False rumours and malicious speculation. Monarch are good to go.

Watch this space.

[KyleRB]

If it is HNA, then it is their foothold in the UK and Europe with links to the Americas and then back to Asia. It smells expansion!!

[pax britanica]

So tell the Eu to get lost re Monarch but where does that leave Easyjet and Ryan both much much bigger who are very EU dependent?

And of course the Eu can always turn round and add conditions to 'foreign ' airlines operating largely inside the Eu so a quick fix on Monarch may not be so simple.

there is no free trade anymore it was 19th century concept and in todays world does not exist

[Brigantee]

Well if the rumours of lots of Chinese money are true then things could be looking up without doubt

[Lou Scannon]

Having lost the odd pilot job in the UK IT business (Laker, Air Europe etc) I am now retired and have flown with Monarch several times in recent years.

I now fly with them by choice .They have an excellent product with a great set of cabin staff and I am keeping my fingers crossed for them.

Looking forward to travelling with them to Lanzagrotty next year.

[Fletch]

Re Government intervention. I too see no place for the government to intervene in the plight of Monarch. The reality of it is Monarch are of no strategic importance (agreed they do support a lot of high quality/skilled jobs) to the country. Should Monarch, or any airline operating in the leisure sector for that matter, cease trading the market has so many other players in it that the capacity would easily be absorbed. In fact an over supply of seats on most of Monarchs routes is looming. If I was a competitor I wouldn't be happy if they were to receive preferential treatment. Also where was the intervention with XL, Globespan, Baby
That said, delighted that Monarch live to fight another day. A great brand and a decent employer.
Perhaps the HNA deal will be tied in to the purchase of the 737s (in an asset management role), so they will not require a majority stake.

[Brigantee]

Im sure the government have no intention whatsoever of getting involved in this issue

[KyleRB]

Unless we are party to the negotiations, none of us here really know what's going on behind closed doors. There is little certainty in anything we say, it is merely conjecture and opinion, sometimes enlightened opinion!

[INKJET]

I think some people are trying to see things in this that don't exist, the UK Government won't get involved, they will be aware of course because potentially large scale redundancies require that they be aware, but beyond that no chance of interference in a private company.

The CAA have granted an extension because they are satisfied that the risk in two weeks is no greater than now and i would expect some form of bond will have been paid to allow this whilst work continues to find an investor.

Well I'm sure that having news about the 12 day extension on SKY news will do far more damage to future booking than all the tittle tattle on here, Facebook and Twitter.

[Brigantee]

By all accounts a investor is on board and announcement due early next week

[Rushed Approach]

I suspect this is still more complex than many on here realise. Don't forget that Greybull only own 90% of Monarch.

[KyleRB]

From what I do know I think you might be right Rushed Approach.

[Brigantee]

They need to get things sorted ASAP regarding the ATOL renewal , As it stands they have been thrown a lifeline , If they let it go to wire as they did yesterday again consumer confidence already damaged will be lost completely

[KyleRB]

Brigantee

I think they are aware of this! ;) I can't imagine they are deliberately dragging this out.

I have 2 good friends there so I have an interest plus if they do longhaul again, I would re-submit my application!

[xollob]

False rumours and malicious speculation. Monarch are good to go.

Watch this space.
Unfortunately for those at Monarch I think you might be mistaken, if there was "nothing to see here move along" then my personal belief is a new ATOL would have been issued, not a 12 day extension, which in reality is just a temporary lifeline. I guess the conversation went something along the lines of" we're in a good state", "we don't think you are", "we are", "prove it", "erm we cant right now, here's what we can prove", "ok that's enough to buy you 12 days, you have that time to come up with the rest".


For the jobs of all those involved I hope that all is good going forward, but to go to the 11th hour just for 12 days seems somewhat bizarre. I certainly hope it's not so the CAA can in 12 days turn around and say, we gave them a chance, so it's not our fault gov"


Good luck all involved.

[Heathrow Harry]

probably The Money playing hard to get an trying to extort the best possible price

Monarch aren't out of the woods yet but they're sounding very bullish..............

[RHINO]

Lou Scannon...all at Monarch salute you...

I think it's fair to say the Naysayers are going to end up with egg on their face.

[RHINO]

I doubt the 10% stake the PPF has is relevant in any way.

This will not go down to the wire but be sorted shortly.

Why shouldn't the UK government get involved.

Thomas Cook was 'sorted' by the UK government:ok:

[Skipness One Echo]

Thomas Cook was nationalised???? Missed that one!
Why would a Chinese business be keen to lose money against FR/EZY/DY/LS taking white people to get a tan?
How are forward bookings looking? Unless new owner has VERY deep pockets they're about to have an existence threatening winter trading situation. Seriously, rose tinted memories of better days aside, who on Earth books with a company with this visibility in the news cycle? The only way back is to beat the other guys on PRICE and that won't get you through to the summer!

[RHINO]

Who said anything about 'Nationalised'

[gtf]

So tell the Eu to get lost re Monarch but where does that leave Easyjet and Ryan both much much bigger who are very EU dependent?

And of course the Eu can always turn round and add conditions to 'foreign ' airlines operating largely inside the Eu so a quick fix on Monarch may not be so simple
Eu doesn't need to "add" conditions. EU airline exceeding 49% have no traffic rights to EU airports.

[Brigantee]

Dont know why a chinese company would be interested skipness but it appears they certainly were three months back so maybe still are ?

http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/62040/hainan-airlines-parent-confirms-interest-in-monarch-stake

They recently bought a 80 per cent stake in SR Technics so perhaps monarchs engineering business which is by all accounts highly regarded is part of the attraction ?

[Pin Head]

Please do not always believe what a Chinese person says in business and aviation.

Had first hand experience of their lies recently.

[Brigantee]

Know what you mean pinhead ,Scots bloke once lied to me over a second hand car , Never trusted the buggers after that ....

[Buster the Bear]

Apart from the staff, what are Monarch's greatest assets? I reckon their Gatwick slots, I have no idea who might be investing, but I am sure that they hold the key to the future?

[BKS Air Transport]

(Irrelevant thread drift...but to be correct, Thomas Cook in its traditional form was nationalised between WW2 and 1972. Now back to Monarch...)

[Burpbot]

Plenty of people commenting on Monarchs Facebook page that they are booking flights. Also many comments of we hope Monarch survives as they don't like to fly with the competition. So it would appear that no publicity is bad publicity???

Bit different to comments on other carriers pages!

[40 yearflyer]

How come I booked on Monarch without checking the news? The answer is emotional. They are cleaner, more comfortable and have friendlier staff than the rest. They also slotted into the changeover date and a more suitable departure time for my holiday than the 0600 the others offered. My wife does not do 0330 taxi rides to airports, or the cattle queue for a bus to some distant parking slot (and the incredibly long walk on return to the baggage claim at BHX.) It is British and Best. Long may it fly. ( sorry I have not posted in 20 years) PS I am a Pilot.

[Tinribs]

You ask if I doubt the integrity of Mon staff, I did no such thing and only those seeking fault could infer that from my post.

The staff are unknown to me and I cannot assess their demeanor
What I said, if you read it, was that our only best estimate of this mystery is to consider the international airline norm over many years so this ought to be a part of our consideration

I pointed out that the only "controlled crash" of an airline in my years in the job was BMI Baby

[Rushed Approach]

Everyone is talking as if Monarch actually needs an ATOL to sell its flights. It doesn't and neither does (for example) easyJet .

From the easyJet site this evening:

"FAQ: Does easyJet have an ATOL/ABTA number?

Answer: We do not have an ATOL or ABTA number.

ABTA numbers are for members of the Association of British Travel Agents and ATOL is a protection scheme that does not apply when you book directly with an airline. If you book your flights or holiday via a travel agent or other third party ask them for their ABTA or ATOL numbers."

So let's keep things in perspective here - the press (circling like vultures as they always do for a nice juicy company failure) is basically saying that Monarch needs an ATOL licence or it is bust, but in reality ZB only actually needs this licence to sell holidays. Mon was profitable last year and expects to be so this and has submitted Companies House figures for last year and EBITDAR figures for this to support this. Plenty of other operators don't need to even have the annual conversation with the CAA over ATOL (and they thus contribute nothing to that particular holiday bail-out fund), and so we are thus deprived of the CAA's annual opinion of their finances.

easyJet (for example) sells ALL of its flight-only bookings without giving an ATOL certificate (except those asscociated with easyJet holidays, which are sold through a third party).

[Fletch]

Skipness1echo... HNA seem to have very deep pockets. There are few companies that would seem a natural fit to buy Monarch but amazingly Greybull seem to have found one in HNA (if indeed they are the to invest) I think. Far more than just an airline investing in Monarch... Fingers crossed it all works out..

[Trav a la]

This is from the CAA website.

What situations does ATOL cover?

ATOL protection applies to virtually any overseas air holiday booked with a UK travel company. The law says your holiday must be protected if you book a holiday with a single travel firm that includes:

flights and accommodation (including a cruise), or
flights and car hire, or
flights, accommodation and car hire.
The scheme also applies when:

You book flights (including UK domestic flights) but do not receive your tickets immediately. This is most common with charter flights, but can also apply to discounted scheduled flights. Please note that ATOL does not apply to holidays or flights booked direct with scheduled airlines.
Your holiday involves at least one flight to or from the UK. For instance, a fly/cruise break where you travel out by ship and fly home, or a holiday in France where you travel out by Eurostar but fly home.
You book a package that includes UK domestic flights

So, are Monarch 'flight only' bookings, made via their website, ATOL protected or not?

[172driver]

So, are Monarch 'flight only' bookings, made via their website, ATOL protected or not?

Quite obviously not, you
a) receive the ticket immediately
b) have made the booking with a scheduled airline

Same in my understanding goes for ANY online flight-only booking made with ANY airline in the UK.

[Rushed Approach]

The test is whether you get an ATOL certificate when you book.

From the CAA site:



Does ATOL cover bookings made online?

Yes, as long as your holiday is one for which protection is legally required and you are booking with a UK travel company.

For instance, if you use a website's 'flights and hotel' booking option to purchase flights and accommodation at the same time, then the law says your travel company must provide ATOL protection.

However, ATOL only covers bookings made with travel companies, not those made directly with airlines.

[INKJET]

Assets of ZB
hmmmm
Well LGW slots would be of interest to EZ/DY for sure
Engineering business, well regarded
Maybe the AOC with EU rights to the US might be of interest to Norwegian?
Delivery slots on the MAX ?

Of course it will be none of the above

[Brigantee]

Monarch bounces back with giant plane order (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/01/monarch-bounces-back-with-giant-plane-order/)

[Cazza_fly]

Most likely an additional order of 15 on top of the 30 already on order.

I'd also expect these aircraft to be 737 MAX 9's.

I feel it would however be better to focus on what they have right now and build up from that...

[MonarchOrBust]

This order is the biggest pile of baloney you will ever have seen. Mark my words. From being on the brink to almost losing rights to sell holidays to ordering 2 billion worth of jets? A PR stunt to ride out the inevitable demise that's all this is. Investors are not idiots. There are far better and much more robust companies to invest in and most know better than us the old adage....what's the best way to make a million in aviation? ....Start of with a billion.

Let's apply some basic fishy smell sensing and business rules here.

[HeartyMeatballs]

Monarch is not 'bouncing back' with a giant plane order. It's introducing a significant risk and cost to what has become are rather shaky operation.

After a week of ups and downs (mainly downs), they come out and announce they're committing funds to replacing the fleet.

Notwithstanding the fact that the deal may have been done by previous leadership, who can possibly think it's a good idea to introduce an aircraft that does exactly the same as what the current fleet does? If the A321 are too big, get rid and replace them with A320 for which they're all trained to operate.

The company were very quiet and coy over the last week. Yet magically when it comes to splashing (customer's) cash they're singing like a canary.

Utter madness.

[Brigantee]

Anyone know who these major institutions mentioned are ? All seems a bit strange one minute there on the brink the next majpr investment coming in , Aviation is a mystery to me i have to say

Hope it all comes to fruition

[FlyANA]

When you order a Boeing it's circa 50 mil for a basic aircraft, an Airbus will be a lot higher but will come fully equipped to meet EASA regulations.

So you can announce a bigger future order of Boeings and they look like a really good deal. But when it comes to equipping them you then have to pay through the nose for Stall Warners, RNAV capability, ACARs, Fail operational autopilot systems etc. So the aircraft end up costing 2 billion + 1 billion for add ons. But only the 2 billion goes down on paper.

Utter madness by the bean counters to not expand the A320 family fleet, it would have been a smaller deal but could have avoided huge costs in re-training and changing ops. But then I guess it made a really good PR stunt. Just an absolute pain for those staff a few years down the line who have to deal with it.

[compton3bravo]

Have you not forgotten something Inkjet - how about the employees regarding assets - oh sorry no bricks and mortar to sell off how remiss of me.

[HeartyMeatballs]

It's utter madness. Replacing a perfectly good fleet, with a fleet that does exactly the same only with requiring a vast amount of money to introduce when there's nothing wrong with the the current fleet. If the A321 is too big, switch to A320s. If the A320 is too small, spaceflex them and refit to 186Y which is only 3 seats less than the 737-800. You'll need to operate A LOT of full flights to make it worth all of the extra expense just to fly an additional three seats around.

[Brigantee]

Question is where exactly is the money coming from....

[HeartyMeatballs]

It could be part of a bigger plan to get them sold off to Jet2, Ryanair or Thomson. Nobody wanted to buy them as an Airbus operator, perhaps they think they have a better chance as a Boeing operator. We all know it's not about the long term profitability of the airline that is a priority. It's a buying the airline on the cheap and trying to flip it as quickly as possible for the maximum price.

When you think of it all you'll need is the deposit for the aircraft. The mortgages will just be an ongoing business expense. Boeing will chuck free training into the bargain and there you go like Airbus did when EasyJet went Airbus.

[newmaney]

Not sure that The Telegraph article is accurate, the order for the new aircraft was confirmed 2 years ago this month.

The order for the 30 737 MAX 8s + option on additional 15 737 aircraft was confirmed in October 2014 following an announcement at the Farnborough Airshow in July 2014.

Monarch finalises order for Boeing 737 Max 8s - Monarch Blog (http://blog.monarch.co.uk/monarch-finalises-order-for-boeing-737-max-8s/)

[ZeBedie]

If you book flight only on a Monarch scheduled route using the Monarch web site, the booking confirmation comes with an ATOL certificate.

[davidjohnson6]

Airbus needed a first major LCC to buy their planes to show that an A320 was viable for a LCC instead of the 737 being seen as the only suitable aircraft; Easyjet took advantage of Airbus' desperation. Boeing have no particular urgent need for Monarch's vote of confidence and will not give Monarch such a good deal.

[Rushed Approach]

In which case Monarch is providing EXTRA protection over and above what easyJet (for example) is providing for flight-only bookings.

So those asking why would you book Monarch over another carrier, this is a sound reason to do so as you would appear to have extra protection.

[Johnny F@rt Pants]

Everyone is talking as if Monarch actually needs an ATOL to sell its flights. It doesn't and neither does (for example) easyJet .

I believe it does. I am sure that when Greybull stepped in at the death a couple of years ago the Authority required them to have an ATOL licence to continue selling their flight only product.

[ZBMON]

It's utter madness. Replacing a perfectly good fleet, with a fleet that does exactly the same only with requiring a vast amount of money to introduce when there's nothing wrong with the the current fleet. If the A321 is too big, switch to A320s. If the A320 is too small, spaceflex them and refit to 186Y which is only 3 seats less than the 737-800. You'll need to operate A LOT of full flights to make it worth all of the extra expense just to fly an additional three seats around.
i've just spent 20 minutes reading these posts.....some are quite comical!!

Needless to say, replacing an aging fleet with a new fleet, comes with significant maintenance savings, I have been privileged enough to see the figures.....and NO, I wont be sharing them on a public rumour forum!!!

[daikilo]

I believe Monarch ordered the 30 737MAX in 2014 with delieries starting in 2018 and that it went into the Boeing order book with Monarch as the Customer. They took options for a further 15 and it is possible that the confirmation date for those options is coming up (though it seems a bit early if first deliveries are say in 2020.)


The only explanation I can see for making an announcement now would be if they are putting in place a means to finance these aircraft such that the cost to Monarch before delivery will be minimal thus not a drain on their cash-flow.

[DaveReidUK]

Useful background on ATOL:

http://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/ATOL_History.pdf

[core_dump]

Why would travelers care about ATOL when they don't even care about safety? I'm not getting it. Admittedly I'm not from the UK. In other parts of the world, it seems like they'd sell their soul to the devil for $0.01 off a fare.

[Basil]

Monarch bounces back with giant plane order (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/01/monarch-bounces-back-with-giant-plane-order/)
Monarch Airlines is close to unveiling a bumper fleet order of 45 new Boeing planes backed by a massive bank financing package.

The deal with a consortium of major institutions will be the biggest investment in the airline’s 48-year history and should secure the carrier’s future, ensuring that its licence to fly is fully extended.

[daikilo]

Regarding whether a UK person (or family) is willing to pay for ATOL, most probably don't know how much it is costing them unlike the insurance they pay on their car. But they know they can get a package Holiday where most if not everything is taken care of and they have confidence in the operator that they will get what they are expecting, and if anything goes wrong there will likely be an English speaking guide around to sort it out.

The alternative is to book flights, a hotel (or cruise), a hire car or day trips separately possibly having never been to the destination before and having to do much of that without knowing the local language andwith the risk that one or more of the companies involved may no longer exist when the time comes for the Holiday.

It's called "peace of mind" and has an intangible value.

[Trav a la]

Rushed Approach - In which case Monarch is providing EXTRA protection over and above what easyJet (for example) is providing for flight-only bookings.

So those asking why would you book Monarch over another carrier, this is a sound reason to do so as you would appear to have extra protection.

Which is the reason I asked about ATOL on Monarch flight only. The situation should be clarified as Monarch are in the process of issuing emails with an offer of £30 per sector.

I would like to book flights and support Monarch in the process, but not without ATOL cover.

[daikilo]

I think it is clear that flight-only cannot be covered ATOL.


However, it appears that a flight plus a car hire or a flight plus a hotel can. I have regularly booked an EZY flight and hired a Europcar car at the time of the initial booking apprently via the EZY website. However, as I understand, I am not buying a combined package because I am in fact dealing with EZY for the flight and Europcar for the car, albeit with a special "EZY" tarrif and apparently through the EZY website.


At first glance, it would seem the same structure might apply to Monarch but I have never tried. That is, unless maybe they have an in-house car-hire.

[ZeBedie]

I think it is clear that flight-only cannot be covered ATOL.

This is categorically not true. If you book flight only on a Monarch scheduled route using the Monarch web site, the booking confirmation comes with an ATOL certificate. I have the flight only booking confirmations with ATOL certificate attached.

[Rushed Approach]

Actually it's not clear at all from either the CAA or Monarch websites.

It seems that Monarch flight-only bookings made in the UK are covered by ATOL (contrary to what the CAA site above suggests about flight-only not being covered). Having checked previous flight-only bookings with Monarch, an email is simply attached to the confirmation with the requisite ATOL certificate and in the bottom right hand corner of the certificate it states "Flight-only sale". The certificate has the names of the passengers, the dates and the flights covered, the amount of money protected (i.e. the total amount paid) and the booking locator. It specifically excludes any car hire or hotel accommodation booked at the same time. The issuer is "First Aviation", ATOL number 4888.

I assume that a holiday booking may qualify for a different type of ATOL certificate that may cover other items.

[Heathrow Harry]

"I think it's fair to say the Naysayers are going to end up with egg on their face."

I hope we do - there seems to be an idea that people WANT Monarch to go bust - we don't - why would we?

But I've seen a load of airlines go bust in my time and every one claimed they were in fine shape until the moment they (or the CAA) announced they were dead. It's just being realistic TBH

[MonarchOrBust]

Anyone remember Monarch's order for 787s?

It wasn't long after they cancelled those that the 737 orders were announced at the same bleeding time new winglet A32xs were arriving. Was this a sweet deal with Boeing to avoid some kind of financial penalty? Nothing makes sense with Monarch.

[Rushed Approach]

Which bit are you having trouble making sense of?

B787 massively delayed so Boeing might want to make up for it by offering a favourable deal on a new B737 model (plus a coup to switch an EU carrier to Boeing), earlier variants (-200 and -300) which Monarch used to fly anyway in the 80s/90s (and the B757 for over three decades) so it and Monarch Group's engineering co (MAEL) are no strangers to the type and operating Boeings (MAEL is anyway a B787 GoldCare MRO).

Shortly after, ABs with winglets became available when leases were up on older aircraft so why would the airline not take advantage of the fuel saving on offer for its AB fleet in the near term, before the B737s arrive in 2018?

[FANS]

Great to hear that Alastair Campbell and Blair are back in work, and found a well suited home.

[Yarpy]

I never worked for the Spotty M but did work for Airtours International in the early days of ETOPS when Monarch did our training. I remember a damned good British airline with very high operating standards.

Very glad to hear that have a secure future.

[TartinTon]

MonarchOrBust...the 787s were very late in being delivered. Remember that Monarch ordered for delivery in 2010 and cancelled the order at the end of 2011. The 737 orders weren't until Oct 2014...just a few facts amongst the bullsh*t :=

[Rushed Approach]

So you are saying that a nearly two year delay in the delivery of your order doesn't earn you some financial penalty/goodwill from the manufacturer? :rolleyes:

[janeyTA]

So you are saying that a nearly two year delay in the delivery of your order doesn't earn you some financial penalty/goodwill from the manufacturer?

Thomson got some upgraded seats in the PE cabin, which they later removed because of the numerous complaints about them ;)

[Brigantee]

More fool them then ...However I find that very hard to believe.

[Rushed Approach]

Well next time it might be an idea to get the negotiating team to put penalty clauses in the contract if your jets are gonna be two years late.

[Brigantee]

Given that some seem to consider monarch a basket case , Whats the view on the fact (if its true ) that a hugely successful group such as HNA are willing to invest in them ?

Whats in it for them ? Im no expert on the aviation business so forgive me if im missing the obvious.

[FANS]

I don't think it's fundamentally a basket case - it's a £40m ebitda business, with wrong capital structure and woefully managed as the last few weeks have shown.

[Brigantee]

Seems small fry for a huge outfit like HNA to get involved in really could they use monarch as part of some grander plan?

[Heathrow Harry]

they're still waiting for the money to turn up ..........

[RHINO]

FANS has got it right....

[nigel osborne]

Bringantee

The investor is supposedly the Chinese said the previous Monarch CEO on TV the other day so probably is the HNA group.

Like you I am at a loss to think why HNA would want to invest in an airline abroad with just 30 short haul planes which has had 3 bail outs in less than 3 years.

If the announcement is that they are buying the planes and carrying on the Monarch model, then how does this turn out well.

They are just throwing money at exactly the same business model that has required 3 bailouts in less than 3 years.

We also have toalso factor in Jet 2. From next spring they bring 4 based planes to BHX and 6 to Stansted. That will eat further into the Monarch flights to many Med destinations in these areas for the first time.

So even more challenging.

I am hoping we can move out of this Stepford Wives weirdness and see some realism from the airline and investors.

Surely there will have to be a big change..a merger/ buy out otherwise what has changed its the same business model, and in 12 months time they will probably have the begging bowl out for yet another bail out.

Is this scenario not similar to Ehihad investing heavily in Air Berlin.That has failed so badly LH have had to step in and drastic cuts are planned for Air Berlin.

If anyone on here can explain how the likely current plan to buy more planes and carry on with the same business model if that is the plan,is going to work.

With the added issues of rising fuel and Jet 2 stepping into there markets far more in Birmingham and SE is going to transform Monarch fortunes please explain ?

[KyleRB]

If it is the HNA Group, expect changes to the Monarch business model. I'm not sure why some here keep banging on about what the investors see in Monarch. They obviously see some potential and perhaps expansion opportunity that most here have no clue about. Sadly it doesn't stop some folk mouthing off like they know stuff when in reality they don't!

I have good connections at Monarch but don't work there. The previous Swiss Italian owners were very shrewd business people. They were not billionaires for nothing and played the system to their advantage. I don't think they really cared about Monarch, it served a purpose which run its course by 2014. Greybull were never long term investors and will almost certainly make a profit on their "£125 million" cash injection. There have been problems with certain Monarch management decisions but that applies to many companies in the UK. Not excusing it but it happens. I really do think there'll be changes to the modus operandi of the company. Time will reveal all.

[Brigantee]

I think monarchs a great airline and i wish them the very best , However my question was really what plans HNA may have for them , Maybe as they already own most of SR technics and other maintenance outfits the engineering side must be attractive as its very highly regarded and profitable i believe, so you can see oppotunities there to expand the business, but what about the flying side of things ?

[azz767]

One thing invaluable to MON will be the goodwill value of the brand. Ok its had some negative press the last few weeks but its recognised all over England and has a presence north to south. With the right management and strategy it will flourish. Its just a shame greybull haven't got a clue. MON has a huge amount of loyal customers that will stick with them as long as they exist, hence why the goodwill value of the brand will be so high

[Brigantee]

Very true they do have very loyal customer base who are no doubt very concerned they to start flying with the riff raff on jet 2 !

[Council Van]

Brighter are you talking about J2 from personal experience:rolleyes:

[Brigantee]

Sadly yes flown with them twice and both times had the misfotune to be seated in close proximity to large drunken groups of pikeys ...Im sure monarch also has problems with louts but ive never personally encountered that sort of behavour with them

[snowman 1]

brigante
you do seem to have a downer on jet2 and its passenger, but there was i thinking jet2s
policy re rowdy and drunken pax was very good

[Brigantee]

Sorry, There is nothing wrong with jet 2 or its staff, They dont want these scumbags flying with them anymore than anyone else does

Back to monarch...

[Cuillin Hills]

Very true they do have very loyal customer base who are no doubt very concerned they to start flying with the riff raff on jet 2

You started it, Brigantee.

I suggest you start doing some research on the competition - Monarch management could learn some lessons from Jet2.

In respect of problem passengers I can assure you that all UK airlines suffer from certain individuals - awareness is high of Jet2 on this subject because they are actually trying to do something about it.

As for KyleRBs comment about the Mantegazzo's being 'very shrewd business people' - all I can say is

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

[KyleRB]

Cuillin Hills

Not sure what your point is re Monarch's previous owners. I've never been a pax with Jet2 but I've heard their management team is very good.

Brigantee

I would expect Monarch to expand and diversify their flying schedule.

[Cuillin Hills]

Cuillin Hills

Not sure what your point is re Monarch's previous owners.

Sorry, Kyle RB. - I'll make things a bit clearer.

As owners they were diabolical - particularly in respect of the quality of various managing directors they bestowed on the company. This was either deliberate or incompetence.

They walked away from their responsibilities in respect of their pension obligations. Many loyal employees totally stuffed and out of pocket big time.

I don't think you will find many employees of Monarch, past or present, who will disagree with me.

A bit clearer now?

[KyleRB]

Cuillin Hills

We are on the same page! I totally agree with you and my suspicion is it was deliberate as opposed to incompetent. Losses and taxes come to mind and one or two other things! The family ran it for their own needs and never cared about Monarch or it's employees.

[Brigantee]

Well if they have got any sense they will announce something positive ASAP this uncertainty must be hitting bookings dreadfully

[Alloy]

First thing that comes to my mind when describing the previous owners is that they basically stole my and many other Monarch employee's pensions. Shrewd is one way of putting it but I think many a Monarch employee may put it in stronger terms....

[Trav a la]

Quite agree Alloy.

It's a national disgrace that ANYONE can mess about with your pension.

Every persons pension should be ring fenced and untouchable, the new government should be looking at ways to ensure it can never happen again in the future. Did we learn nothing from the Mirror Group debacle.

IMHO it's tantamount to theft.

Sorry for thread drift.

[Copenhagen]

Considering the Monarch Pension fund owns ten percent of the airline, at a minimum that will be diluted with new shareholder investment.

[Centre cities]

Well if they have got any sense they will announce something positive ASAP this uncertainty must be hitting bookings dreadfully

You can only announce something when you have it