Monarch - 3

[oldchina]

Skipness:

"I would not book with Monarch going forward for a long time"

What does that mean in English? Do you prefer going backwards for a long time?

[ATNotts]

It is hardly rumouring or scaremongering when extra aircraft actually arrive and flight plans put in for the next few days... it is fact.
The FACTS were that aircraft were being positioned to PMI and TFS and appear to be operating to slots similar to, or identical to Monarch slots.

Pure, possibly unfounded and irresponsible speculation was that Monarch were therefore going bust. It could equally have been that a Spanish hotel chain was in difficulties, cruise line on the brink, coup d'etat in the offing in Spain, or indeed an airline in trouble.

The most likely outcome, as a direct result of the speculation is the untimely demise of an airline and 2800 jobs. Good game; good game!!!

[Heathrow Harry]

"As an analyst, do you not think that keeping your opinions to yourself might be the better course of action; or do you relish the idea of putting several hundred people out of work?"

he might take the view that saving a lot of people's hard earned savings and their holidays is at least as important............................

[Wycombe]

United 747 still enroute to TFS and hasn't turned back.

BTW, UAL apparently has several 744's mainly doing charters (primarily for US Mil) and not doing regular scheduled flying, prior to retirement, so probably had significant airlift available at short notice.

Hoping that MON can weather this.

[gtf]

And to NAP and VCE and DBV.

Operating slots not similar but perfect match for Monarch. And not any other carrier, only Monarch... FACTS... Conclusions, one's own... But irresponsible? How deep is that head in the sand?

[Charley B]

UA 2295 is still according to planefinder heading towards TFS(2 mins ago)??

[Hudson Bay]

The airline said: “Our flights are operating as normal, carrying Monarch passengers as scheduled.”

The statement conceded: “Over the weekend, there has been negative speculation about Monarch's financial health.” But it added Monarch was “trading well” and predicted a profit of over £40m for its financial year ending next month.

[KyleRB]

HH

If you had half a brain you wouldn't make such a callous comment. Companies going under has massive implications which are far more severe than losing a holiday. ATOL bonding covers that as does paying with credit card so your comment doesn't apply.

I reckon there is some malicious intent from some posters to sink Monarch.

[GingerC]

The FACTS were that aircraft were being positioned to PMI and TFS and appear to be operating to slots similar to, or identical to Monarch slots.

Pure, possibly unfounded and irresponsible speculation was that Monarch were therefore going bust. It could equally have been that a Spanish hotel chain was in difficulties, cruise line on the brink, coup d'etat in the offing in Spain, or indeed an airline in trouble.

The most likely outcome, as a direct result of the speculation is the untimely demise of an airline and 2800 jobs. Good game; good game!!!

If a Spanish hotel chain was in difficulties, or a cruise line on the brink, why were there aircraft in position to repatriate only British tourists and not one of the other countries in Europe had done a thing for their own citizens? And as for the coup d'etat, now we are entering fantasy land.

Real aircraft and their real crews have been moved round the world on the instructions of the UK CAA, and you think the whole thing was made up by some bloke on the internet as a game?

[AirportPlanner1]

While this doesn't look good for MON, there is something fishy about the destinations these aircraft are going to....why NAP, VCE and DBV? They don't strike me as key destinations for an airlift home. Why nothing in Greece/Cyprus? What Naples, Dubrovnik and Venice do have in common with Palma and Tenerife is being key cruise destinations. So perhaps something else is going down.

[RHINO]

All flights operating as normal.

[A300Man]

Monarch statement:

Response to speculation about Monarch | Monarch Blog (http://blog.monarch.co.uk/speculation-about-monarch/)

[Hudson Bay]

Monarch Airlines strongly denies rumours it's in financial trouble after social media speculation - pprune?

[KelvinD]

UA 2295 is still according to planefinder heading towards TFS(2 mins ago)??
I too saw that. However, Planefinder's data ia supplied (at this time) by the FAA so is delayed. FR24 is showing a new course of 40deg. 5 minutes ago it apparently on a heading of 145. Meanwhile, Monarch's flight ZB932 from BHX is on the verge of arriving at TFS.
Update: FR24 now shows a heading of 103! Pointing vaguely at TFS.

[ATNotts]

And as for the coup d'etat, now we are entering fantasy land.

Shame some people can't appreciate irony :ugh:

[GingerC]

But do Monarch actually have any flights to/from Greece or Cyprus on Mondays at this time of year? Since you bring up Greece, Athens (Piraeus) is one of the biggest cruise ports in the whole Mediterranean. No planes seem to have been mobilised to lift the hypothetical stranded cruise passengers from there. On the other hand, Athens isn't one of Monarch's destinations, so maybe that's the reason.

[yeoman]

I too saw that. However, Planefinder's data ia supplied (at this time) by the FAA so is delayed. FR24 is showing a new course of 40deg. 5 minutes ago it apparently on a heading of 145. Meanwhile, Monarch's flight ZB932 from BHX is on the verge of arriving at TFS.
Update: FR24 now shows a heading of 103! Pointing vaguely at TFS.

Weather deviation?

[Copenhagen]

The UAL 744!is still heading towards TFS at 35k feet and 507 knots

[KyleRB]

Monarch needs a big investment to continue long term and I hope it gets it. I have friends who work there and I have my fingers crossed for them. It has always been one of the best airlines in the UK and deserves a future.

[teamilk&sugar]

What a load of rubbish I'm reading.

FANS
It is now clear that there was substance to this rumour and the group requires additional funding,

If you had been bothered to do a bit of research, you would already know that the requirement for additional funding is no secret. Monarch published exactly that in their last published accounts and is still on track to make a £40m+ profit this year.

Skipness One Echo
Greybull will likely not see an ROI without ploughing even more in. They don't seem keen IMHO.

Greybull have already seen a sizeable return on their investment. Read the published accounts. In your opinion they don't seem keen...? Why is that then? Pure speculation on your part perhaps or are you just trying to make more out of this than there really is?

Very sad indeed to see certain individuals almost relishing in the bad news and misinformation appearing on social media. We don't know all the facts and considering there are quite a few thousand people who are directly involved in this, I find some of the posts in this thread quite distasteful.

[Hudson Bay]

J2 enters BHX and London Market, J2 takes over Monarch hangar, Monarch orders Boeings, J2 orders Boeings, J2 requires 200 plus pilots over next 12 months, Owner of Monarch wants rid, J2 in proper expansion mode, Ts & Cs at Monarch now similar to J2 following reorganisation, no further Fleet transfers at J2. Go figure.

[azz767]

J2 leases A321 for summer so its has some experience of operating the aircraft in the short term?

[Enzo999]

All this speculation was started because the CAA appeard to charter several aircraft to cover Monarch flights, if Monarch want to put this to bed they need to explain why this happened and why those flights have been subsequently cancelled. I hope more than most there is no truth in these rumours but somebody is not telling the truth!

[Icerefugee]

This could all become a self fulfilling prophecy and the CAA would not be blameless. What were they thinking of when chartering a load of wide bodies for repatriation when (presumably) urgent and critical financing discussions were taking place? Having unusual aircraft sitting on the ground is going to fuel speculation - and it has. On a separate but related matter - is there no surplus capacity in Europe at the moment which would not need lengthy lead times and positioning?

[Icerefugee]

J2 enters BHX and London Market, J2 takes over Monarch hangar, Monarch orders Boeings, J2 orders Boeings, J2 requires 200 plus pilots over next 12 months, Owner of Monarch wants rid, J2 in proper expansion mode, Ts & Cs at Monarch now similar to J2 following reorganisation, no further Fleet transfers at J2. Go figure.
So, following your logic, and having gone and figured, J2 acquires Monarch - no need for repatriation - the business can be kept as a going concern

[teamilk&sugar]

Monarch said they would continue to operate their flights. They have done.
Why were those aircraft chartered? Who knows.

"Somebody not telling the truth" is misleading in my opinion. Not having all the facts is the issue and that's what causes all the speculation.

[Nemrytter]

It is hardly rumouring or scaremongering when extra aircraft actually arrive and flight plans put in for the next few days... it is fact.And those facts tell us almost nothing. Everything else is rumour and speculation.

[Heathrow Harry]

Trouble is the modern, connected world you can't go around as we did 30 years ago

Then a new financing package would have been put in place and a (relativaly) orderly process of informing the outside world would swing into place (while those in the know had already made their fortunes by trading ahead of the news of course)

These days everything you do is everywhere in seconds and all it takes is for someone to say to a mate "keep an eye on Monacrh" and the brown stuff is all over everyone............

[yeoman]

The UAL 744!is still heading towards TFS at 35k feet and 507 knots

Only doing 501 kts now. Maybe they've slowed down on company orders because the crisis is abating?

My point here is that clearly something is happening but nobody here knows what. Do they? Really?

So into the information vacuum steps speculation and a fair bit of vitriol, schadenfeude and stupidity.

Particularly offensive are the comments alluding to the glee supposedly being shown by those working for competitors. Yep, as a pilot for a direct competitor I think it would be fab if MON went belly up as it would really secure my position. Dog eat dog and all that.

Oh, hang on.....

Consumer confidence in IT holidays / non flag carriers damaged.
Next round of negotiations on anything Ts&Cs "well, we need to cut this, that and the other, look at what happened to MON" (I sit in negotiations like that frequently).
And so on, you get the idea or at least the slack handful of those here with any real experience of working in UK charter aviation do.

But most importantly, hundreds of people are now in real fear for their futures, some of whom are flying aircraft as we speak which is probably "sub optimum" as the accountants would term it. I don't know about anyone else but aviation being the small world it is, UK charter even more so, I'd wager that many will know people at MON from training, bar chat, the village boozer etc and not one will be rooting for losing MON from the field.

Please, stop with the vilification, take the dog for a walk or something and wait for the dust to settle.

[Trossie]

I wonder how some of the posters on this thread, e.g. Skipness One Echo and Heathrow Harry, would enjoy people posting mere rumours on PPRuNe about the imminent demise of their employers...

[Enzo999]

Monarch said they would continue to operate their flights. They have done.
Why were those aircraft chartered? Who knows.

"Somebody not telling the truth" is misleading in my opinion. Not having all the facts is the issue and that's what causes all the speculation.

Then Monarch need to provide the facts, as you say "not having the facts" is fueling the speculation, Monarch are the only ones able to provide claritity and failure to do so will only relsult in further speculation. Are you seriously telling me they don't know why those flights were chartered? I have spent the last 4 years working for Monarch so am more invested in this than anyone and refuse to take abuse from people. But I have said in previous posts it is far from a stable airline, we have been told constantly this year how bad things have been, further cost cutting, spending freezes, consultants being drafted in, high level managers leaving this 40 million pound profit is completely new news. Unfortunately I do believe there was some level of thruth to these rumours how much, who knows. But having worked for XL in the past and a survivor of Monarch's last bankruptcy I think we need answers and quickly!

[Curious Pax]

Given that there seems to be clear evidence that the charters that started the rumour mill were booked by the CAA, I would have thought that some responsibility lies with them to clarify matters. If it was nothing to do with Monarch then they should say so and quickly; if it was, but the matter has been resolved, then they should say so jointly with Monarch. Saying nothing just drags the rumour mill on, to the potential detriment of thousands of customers and employees of Monarch.

[wiggy]

Jerry Scott, a Business Live reader, has landed at Manchester airport on another airline. He says staff on his flight told him:

I really hope we're not going to witness the first case of an airline tipped over the edge by a combination of "Galley FM" and social media.......

[jon01]

Because the CAA arranged these rescue flights and the info leaked out on social media BEFORE the airline is actually declared bankrupt and could have been given more time, they are now in an even more precarious position?

[Falcon666]

Anybody know how long the ATOL bond of £5mil as stated lasts .Is it 12 months?

[brakedwell]

I think the relevant bond is ATOL.

[Council Van]

Ref the UAL flight going to TFS

Yeoman wrote
Only doing 501 kts now. Maybe they've slowed down on company orders because the crisis is abating?

Perhaps this chart might give you a big clue as to why the aircraft's ground speed has reduced.:ugh:

Jetstream Forecast - Jetstream Map Updated Four Times Daily - Netweather.tv (http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=)

[Falcon666]

Yeah sorry just changed it!

[yeoman]

Ref the UAL flight going to TFS

Yeoman wrote


Perhaps this chart might give you a big clue as to why the aircraft's ground speed has reduced.:ugh:

Jetstream Forecast - Jetstream Map Updated Four Times Daily - Netweather.tv (http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=)

"Sarcasm". Google is your friend.

Did you read the rest of my post?

Thanks for illustrating my point though.

[bjones4]

Yeah sorry just changed it!
It lasts for 12 months, this one expires on September 30th. Renewal looks a fairly expensive task too! Based on your financial performance and financial reserves you pay an application fee aswell as a cost per passenger you predict carrying over the next year.

[MaverickPrime]

:eek::ooh:Goodness, a/c reduces speed by 5kts and it's a controversy. Can't seem to find UA744 on flight radar, though it says delayed on TFS arrivals board. Maybe crew had ACARS update to switch off xponder before pprune talks monarch into the financial grave..... joking btw for those who can't tell.

As far as I'm aware flightradar is probably not accurate to within +/- 5kts.

All the best to the workers at MON!

[Occams Razor]

Thanks for illustrating my point though.
Sadly I think it has been lost on most, such is the apperrent level of dopeyness on this thread. You illustrate the point very well.

It astounds me that people have nothing better to do other than cast doom and gloom on Internet forums based on quarter-truths and bizzare speculation.

[LadyL2013]

I'm still confused as to where these rumours started from.

[MonarchOrBust]

Guys wake up to the reality that we are discussing a company that is owned by a brutul vulture capitalist that has a history of buying basket cases and then putting them into administration. They did it with the old Morrison's My Local stores only a few months ago. Loss against profit = less tax. This combined with Monarch needing an urgent cash injection, Winter coming, oil price rising, a stupid nonsensical and expensive decision to change fleet and the charter flights points to one thing. Monarch is on the brink. All the best.

[Hotel Tango]

Why this parallel thread? Let's keep the discussion in one thread please!

[galaxy68]

Usually when an airline bites the dust, the first people to know (and take actions), are often the fuel companies and airports, (for non-payment of fees). So clearly no problem there... it seems like Greybull have decided this is just a good time for them to exit!

[FANS]

Monarch will not go bust today so this talk about charter aircraft is irrelevant.

What this does show however is an airline in crisis, with its backer Greybull not willing to stand behind it until the issue makes the BBC news. And even then, they still don't appear to have committed hard notes.

Monarch now has to answer the question of why book flights with us, when there's a greater risk of us going bust.

[FANS]

Why would you book a flight with Monarch now unless it's dirt cheap and you enjoy gambling?

[Buster the Bear]

Maybe Monach has been saved by the opening of the Chinese banks overnight (UK time)? Hanian were rumoured to have been in negotiations and maybe these went to the 'wire' overnight?

[virginblue]

FlightRadar only shows MON aircraft heading north to the UK, not a single southbound flight showing on FR24 at the moment. Is that in line with the regular schedule for a monday early afternoon?

[Flightmech]

Let's hope the CAA have not put the final nail in Monarch's coffin by unnecessarily jumping the gun on securing recovery charter flights. Reputation is everything in this business.
Good luck to all Monarch staff, fingers-crossed this will be another aviation storm you ride out.

[gopaisleygo]

UA2295 on finals into TFS, expensive exercise if all (hopefully) proves to be positive for the great guys n gals at Monarch.

[Hotel Tango]

FlightRadar only shows MON aircraft heading north to the UK, not a single southbound flight showing on FR24 at the moment. Is that in line with the regular schedule for a monday early afternoon?

Generally speaking you will have an early morning wave heading outbound from all points in the UK. By this time they are all on the way back. The next outbound wave will be around the 1500 mark.

[virginblue]

Generally speaking you will have an early morning wave heading outbound from all points in the UK. By this time they are all on the way back. The next outbound wave will be around the 1500 mark.


So I assume check-in for this afternoon's flights is working normally across the UK?

[Hotel Tango]

Just looking at BHX departures I note that the UNITED AIRLINES flight to LPA is cancelled and the MONARCH flight is still showing as scheduled for on time departure. The fact that a UNITED flight was originally scheduled indicates that all the rumours had some foundation.

[Artie Fufkin]

Well, we know repatriation flights were lined up, and bearing in mind the costs involved with transatlantic heavy positioning flights there must have been real expectation.

However, rescue appears to be sufficiently likely for trading to continue. I doubt this "fresh investment" would be taken down to the wire by their owners, so we can only assume take over talks are in progress with a very sharp new investor who was willing to go in for a bit of brinkmanship to help bargaining. There is only one likely candidate and the sharp practice sounds all to familiar.

[virginblue]

Now the first southbound afternoon flight has appeared on flightradar24, so business as usual for the time being apparently.

[ATNotts]

For the same reasons I'd book with any other carrier.

Unlike some airlines, Monarch is protected through the ATOL scheme, so you're in no danger of losing your money. If I've booked using my credit card (and taken the hit on the CC fee) my card company is responsible for refunding me. Finally, if the CAA are happy, then so am I.

I could book with a legacy carrier, and find myself stranded through industrial action; or I could book with another large, infamous lo-co carrier, not necessarily HQ-ed in UK, and find I'm left high and dry as a result of a short notice cancellation. There's risk in everything I do, and to every pound I spend.

[FANS]

Risk is relative, and also needs to be priced accordingly .

The hassle of your airline going bust is huge, and waiting for your CAA airlift or not getting there in the first place doesn't make any sense unless the ticket price is way cheaper.

[aceplanes]

Werid whatever is going on, do a search for N116UA, seems to have tomorrow flights loaded in now. Guess while it sits at PMI alls ok, but if it heads down towards LPA then somethings afoot....

[gopaisleygo]

great news, lets get positive for them.

[Brigantee]

Was it really anything another than that virgin blue ......All flights arrived normally yesterday and all flights are operating normally today,

There must be a fair few dissapointed people on here now that things appear normal , Nothing like the prospect of hundreds of people losing there jobs to get the juices flowing eh?

[FANS]

Monarch are in a fight for survival, and will act and say things accordingly.

It's up to customers and suppliers if they wish to enter into contracts with this type of animal.

[eggc]

Flights still being added, this morning a few UAL 744's trips between AGP and MAN have appeared. Doubt they'll operate it seems.

[toledoashley]

Not that it should be taken with too much credibility, the Daily Mail (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3807231/Monarch-Airlines-denies-rumours-financial-crisis.html) via the Press Association are reporting that Greybull are negotiating a sale once again bringing up the HNA Group as a possible buyer.

[virginblue]

Was it really anything another than that virgin blue ......All flights arrived normally yesterday and all flights are operating normally today. There must be a fair few dissapointed people on here now that things appear normal , Nothing like the prospect of hundreds of people losing there jobs to get the juices flowing eh?

Yes, but normally you don't have a dozen or so planes sitting on the ground at Monarch's destinations, effectively filing flight plans for MON flights. So as far as I am concerned, it is perfectly legitimate to ask questions. How about, for example, people having to make decisions regarding future flight bookings or looking for a back-up plan if they have already entered into a contract with Monarch? Are they not entitled to ask what exactly is going on with their business partner to make informed decisions?

[FANS]

A sale is one of the few options open to them.

They need proper backing ASAP, as confidence is very low in them and management .

[Brigantee]

Looks like they may be about to get a rather wealthy new owner if the rumour mills right

[HS-125]

UAL have a flightplan in the system for N116UA

LEPA-GCLP-EGBB ...

[janeyTA]

Looks like they may be about to get a rather wealthy new owner if the rumour mills right

If you mean HNA, that's been ongoing for months if the press back in April/May/June were correct. It was mentioned earlier in this thread at the time.

[teamilk&sugar]

A sale is one of the few options open to them.

They need proper backing ASAP, as confidence is very low in them and management .
FANS

Reading through this thread, almost every post you have made has been extremely negative and you are seemingly trying to 'fan the flames' of doom and gloom.

What exactly is your agenda?

Really quite sad to read how some people seem to revel in this sort of thing.
:(

[on time all the time]

I am surprised to see Twitter has taken over the good old solid info and everyone has become an expert in doom and gloom.
I don't know what the situation is anymore as I have left the company 2 years ago.
But i would still buy tickets from them for the simple reason they are the only airline to be bonded.
Indeed some people explained it earlier but let me explain egain...anyone buying a Monarch ticket does not buy it directly but via a third party (First Aviation) . That means that F A protects you from any financial collapse.
In the meantime radio gossip has got a very damaging effect on the company...and it may collapse if the bookings stop dry because a vicious rumour was started. And all the experts I read could have their part in the responsibility of it.
Once again I know nothing but Monarch via First Aviation is bonded . So your flight tickets are secure.

[virginblue]

I don't think that this is a comforting perspective if there is alternative to avoid any ATOL-bonded chaos at all by booking with another airline...

What I don't understand as not being from the UK: If ATOL is a mechanism to protect customers of tour operators, why would the inability of a tour operator owned by an airline to pay the ATOL fee have an effect on the airline itself? So technically, if the ATOL expires, the subsidiary could not legally sell tickets on Monarch or any other airline, but it would not stop Monarch as an ailrine from trading immediately.

[Copenhagen]

That's not quite true. Read the FAQ's on their site. For scheduled service they recommend travel insurance and paying with a credit card.

[janeyTA]

That's not quite true. Read the FAQ's on their site. For scheduled service they recommend travel insurance and paying with a credit card.


If you're referring to

Once again I know nothing but Monarch via First Aviation is bonded . So your flight tickets are secure.

then its perfectly true. If you read the wording again on Monarchs website you will see it's clearly out of date. It mentions charter flights, which they no longer operate. All flights are scheduled and are via First Aviation and come with an Atol certifcate. Charter and Avro no longer come into it.

[Airbanda]

In the meantime radio gossip has got a very damaging effect on the company...and it may collapse if the bookings stop dry because a vicious rumour was started.

It is a fact that aircraft, including two United 747s, were chartered and positioned to various places in southern europe where Brits go for holidays etc. Further, arrival boards at UK airports showed United flights arriving from those places in southern europe in patterns that appeared to replicate ZB schedules

People on this on this forum and, more pertinently in social media, have discussed and perhaps speculated on reasons for that. When that speculation is, inevitably, picked up by mainstream media then another risk adds to those already being discussed.

That's 21st century reality.

[Copenhagen]

If you're referring to



then its perfectly true. If you read the wording again on Monarchs website you will see it's clearly out of date. It mentions charter flights, which they no longer operate. All flights are scheduled and are via First Aviation and come with an Atol certifcate. Charter and Avro no longer come into it.

Website discusses flights and holidays. States holidays are bonded.

2) Book scheduled flights on a Credit Card or Visa Debit card

If your flights cost over £100 and you pay for them using a credit card (Visa / Mastercard) you'll be entitled to a refund in the event of scheduled airline failure (this is protected under the terms of the Consumer Credit Act). You'll need to contact your card issuer to make the claim. If your flights cost less than £100 you may still be entitled to a refund, but you'll need to check with your card issuer and claim in good time.


And here...
http://www.monarch.co.uk/terms/flights/post-28-october-2014

[KelvinD]

Meanwhile, the BBC reports the prolonged talks between Monarch and the CAA related to renewal of Monarch's licence, which is due to expire at the end of the week. Part of the licence renewal procedure relates to the company's financials.
Following this morning's outbound rush with 30 of their fleet of 35 on the move, there are now 24 doing the afternoon rush. All seems to be running as one would expect.

[willy wombat]

If the "licence" (which licence exactly?) is not due to expire until the end of the week it seems somewhat premature to have sub-chartered aircraft available already.

[janeyTA]

Website discusses flights and holidays. States holidays are bonded.

2) Book scheduled flights on a Credit Card or Visa Debit card

If your flights cost over £100 and you pay for them using a credit card (Visa / Mastercard) you'll be entitled to a refund in the event of scheduled airline failure (this is protected under the terms of the Consumer Credit Act). You'll need to contact your card issuer to make the claim. If your flights cost less than £100 you may still be entitled to a refund, but you'll need to check with your card issuer and claim in good time.


And here...
Terms and Conditions for flight bookings made after 28 October 2014 | Flight Terms - Monarch (http://www.monarch.co.uk/terms/flights/post-28-october-2014)
26th Sep 2016 15:07

It doesn't change the fact that ZB flight only bought direct are Atol bonded, and First Aviation issue a flight only Atol certificate. I'm looking at two right now.

[janeyTA]

If the "licence" (which licence exactly?)

It's the Atol.

[willy wombat]

Noted but if it expires at the end of the week I still think the sub-chartering a bit premature

[FANS]

What is there to be optimistic about?

There has been no explanation from Monarch or the CAA about these chartered in aircraft so I'll make my own assumptions

The company is currently going through an emergency fundraising round

It was apparently in talks with the CAA on a Sunday night (didn't know the CAA worked Sundays!)

The information available is extremely limited, except twitter which says there's nothing to worry about so we can all relax

I take no comfort from them being backed by Greybull, because they'll do and have done what their spreadsheet tells them is the best answer

If you book a flight - i.e. deposit money in the company's bank account - you're apparently fine because of ATOL or maybe your credit card protection.

Won't the credit card companies now want greater funding/guarantees? Will they refund the rest of the cost of the holiday? I've no idea, but I can't see the benefit of incurring time and expenses to find out when you could just book with BA/EZY/RYR etc.

I think you'd be nuts to do business with these guys unless it's mega cheap.

[22/04]

I'd love to be optimistic as one who was around to watch the very first departure of G-AOVI to Madrid on 5 April 1968 and has flown with Monarch many times since. But...

My guess is that Greybull have been trying to secure new investment or sell Monarch for several months and still may succeed. However if they do not then they may be about to throw in the towel now rather than incur losses over the winter which would make the end inevitable and more costly (and to be fair affect many more (summer) bookings not yet made). It is surprising they have lasted so long.

The extra capacity will be taken up by Jet2 at Birmingham Leeds and Manchester and EasyJet at Luton and Gatwick with all or almost all routes already being served by them (may be not Ovda or Gibraltar at LTN). Greybull may be able to recover income from the slots at Gatwick - not sure how corporate law would affect that.

Isn't this deja vue - weren't we here in September 2014 or does my memory serve me poorly.

And Greybull and Comet? Deja vue again.

[Heathrow Harry]

"I wonder how some of the posters on this thread, e.g. Skipness One Echo and Heathrow Harry, would enjoy people posting mere rumours on PPRuNe about the imminent demise of their employers..."

I've been there - more than once - and for sure it's a dreadful feeling...... but then often it just crsytallises something you already knew (if you were in managment) or suspected (if you were the poor bloody infantry).

I never liked the mis-representation and false optimism peddled to try and keep the ship afloat when you knew it was likely that people were still putting up money that they were unlikely to recover

With luck Monarch may survive - I hope it does. Not impressed bythe time it took to get out a decent press release tho' - if that had come out yesterday early it might have quelled a lot of the internet frenzy

[840]

Having your money protected is one thing, but plenty will fret about disruption to travel plans and look to a different operator instead.

[benm345]

Am i the only one here who's more likely to book a cheap flight with them knowing that i could get a flight home on a 747?

[rudolf]

Am i the only one here who's more likely to book a cheap flight with them knowing that i could get a flight home on a 747?

Yep, the only one.

[FANS]

Always good to see the CEO leading from the front and putting the record straight in person - beats hiding behind a 2 para press release and Gary the twitter account manager!

[cumbrianboy]

FANS - what is your beef, why such negativity. Did they turn you down for a job or something?

[davidjohnson6]

If only the CAA had chosen to lease (or been able to lease) aircraft from EU carriers, it might have been possible for a cover-up to have worked until the very last minute

I guess the whole industry will learn in future about the power of inquisitive spotters surfing FR24 and the importance of being more careful about info reaching the public domain. Airport and airline staff can be persuaded to keep quiet (by threat of losing their job if necessary) but FR24 spotters not employed in aviation behave differently.

Twenty years ago, the press would have had no idea about these plans until a press release had been issued

[FANS]

I love your reference to negativity - just like the press release "there has been negative speculation about Monarch’s financial health"

Just like their twitter account last night "there is no truth in the rumours that appeared today" followed by the disclosure of emergency funding being required and crisis talks with the CAA.

Please tell me what there is to be positive about.

Better still, if the directors are so confident about the business why don't they give personal guarantees?

[FANS]

After their comments last night of "no truth to these rumours" followed by the release of information around crisis talks with the CAA on a Sunday night and emergency funding being required, I don't believe a word they say anymore.

[cumbrianboy]

Who said it's 'emergency' funding?

They actually said we are announcing investment to fund our future growth.

jet2 made a similar statement in their recent annual report 'we have secured investment for the purchase of our new 737-800s' but i don't see people rushing to twitter speculating about a sudden demise of them.

The fact is, every company refinances from time to time, and when they make an order for new planes, they need to finance the purchase. That seems obvious to me, and nothing in Monarch's statement today gave me cause for concern.

This whole 'emergency funding' and 'of course they will say that' is just speculation and scaremongering.

[KelvinD]

Agree re the so-called "emergency funding". They already announced they are expecting a profit of £M40 at the end of their financial year, which is in October. Not much call there for any "emergencies".

[pabloc]

FANS...your posts are so negative that you must be salivating at the thought of 2800 staff at Monarch being made redundant!!!....you sad sad person.....:mad:

[fokker1000]

rjay259

You want to tell me where you heard this 'rumour'? I'm guessing not, but PM me.

Busy flying the line so can't promise I'll reply immediately. MON still appear to be in business.

[FANS]

cumbrianboy - you must have been born yesterday with believing the funding for future growth angle!

Talks between the firm and the CAA, which went on late last night, are likely to be focusing on the "significant investment" that the firm says it expects to announce in the coming days.

You do not spent a Sunday night negotiating over the investment with the CAA if it's not an emergency!

'we have secured investment for the purchase of our new 737-800s

Sorry to break this to you, but there's a big difference between Jet2 securing investment and Monarch "expecting to announce a significant investment"

every company refinances from time to time, and when they make an order for new planes, they need to finance the purchase. That seems obvious to me, and nothing in Monarch's statement today gave me cause for concern.

You'd normally get the finance before you order - in your obvious world, would you sign up to buy a house and then try and get a mortgage? I'd suggest that whilst you're not concerned, the CAA are - but maybe you know better than them.

Agree re the so-called "emergency funding". They already announced they are expecting a profit of £M40 at the end of their financial year, which is in October. Not much call there for any "emergencies".
Is profit the same as cash to pay bills.
Most companies in this situation talk of we have £x million cash in bank, and a committed revolving credit facility of £ym giving us a headroom of £zm. Monarch were, as usual, silent on this detail.

FANS...your posts are so negative that you must be salivating at the thought of 2800 staff at Monarch being made redundant!!!....you sad sad perso
Far from it. You just keep believing what you're told and it'll all be fine. there's no problem. this is just standard growing pains for a fast growing business.

[Skipness One Echo]

Bookings will have fallen off a cliff after today's news.
Going into winter, they won't come close to revenue or profit targets, trading will only become tighter as the competition smells blood.
We don't know what's going on, it would seem a lot of people are working hard to save Monarch. Unless a white knight benefactor with deep pockets and huge ambition steps in with substantial funding, it's hard to see how MON get through the winter trading trough.

Informed comsumers won't risk it. (It's like flyGlobespan all over again on pprune sadly)Thoughts with all concerned but someone needs to step in with a lot of cash ASAP as without good news and a masssive PR drive, they'll not get through the winter.

Suppliers will not do business with an airline that they don't expect to be trading in 30/60/90 days.

[doublestory]

And Duncan's horses did turn and eat each other!

I am nothing to do with Monarch, but too often I have seen gossip take things to their knees. There is a difference between gossip and rumour – rumour often leads to gossip, as it seems in this case. There is also a difference between looking for aircraft just in case, and actually having them on standby. The former costs no money. However a brown envelope may have changed hands to have lead to the UK CAA “making enquiries on aircraft availability” to create a rumour… and the gossip caries on to the scene of the… well you get my drift. Yes it doesn’t just happen in the Cameroon; well of course the south east is a very expensive place to live.

We all earn our livings from airlines, let’s get our shoulders behind commercial aviation and make it happen. Good luck guy’s – I hope it turns out ok.

[davidjohnson6]

Running an airline is a bit like a confidence game - you have to persuade people to give you money now in exchange for the promise of a flight in the future. While customers are confident they give you the money; when confidence goes the airline had a problem.

Thomas Cook a few years ago had a similiar problem - they managed to regain people's confidence in their finances.

Monarch right now needs to be able to demonstrate that a backer has put tens of millions of pounds into Monarch's bank account and then go through the PR media circus of a few suits shaking hands (one of which being the wealthy investor). The cash influx needs to be large so Easyjet / Ryanair / Jet2 believe that Monarch are able to fight back if necessary against a price war. If these two things happen, confidence will quickly return and everything carries on as normal.

Monarch are fortunate that now is not a critical booking season lfor holidays - things would be worse if this was happening in January. Most retail consumers have short memories of corporate events; Monarch need to get the whole thing resolved quickly but if they do then bookings will bounce back.

[Chronus]

The auditor`s report signed on 10 June 2016, on the published accounts of the company are qualified in respect of the company continuing to remain a "going concern", in respect of a forecast made that may result in reliance on the provision of additional facilities totalling £35 million, either from external parties or shareholders.
Perhaps a translation of this into aviation terms may be that an en route fuel stop may be needed should strong headwinds prevail.

[mik3bravo]

Personally speaking, given the noise and lack of stronger statement from the company, I will not be looking to book anything with them until this saga was effectively cleared up. It's too risky.

[Centre cities]

Were not Thomas Cook in a similar (but not identical) situation a few years back.

I doubt many members of the general public remember that now and did not remember for long after the event.

You only have to look at some of the doom and gloom posts on here for TC.

With hopefully new investment and a discount sale to tempt the punters on price for a short time and it will all be a distant memory.

[Tinribs]

After 50 years flying the only airline I recall ceasing business in a controlled way was BMI Baby. They announced well in advance they expected to stop flying, sold no more tickets and then made all their staff redundant paying the going rate.
All the others, how many? just locked the doors one morning
Maybe Mon have that kind of integrity maybe not.

[FANS]

If Monarch get a new gorilla investor on board, it's back to business as usual .

Whether greybull would take the dilution or current valuation is another question.

[750XL]

If you think that 6-8 chartered aircraft flying identical routes, at identical times, with identical flight numbers to Monarch aren't related to ZB then you're a fool.

Glad that the news I (and a lot of other people) were expecting didn't hit today. Although time will tell :sad:

[FANS]

On that basis 750, they absolutely think their customers are fools hence the complete denials last night from their CEO , sorry Gary from Twitter.

today, you'd be a clown to believe a word they say.

[racedo]

Personally speaking, given the noise and lack of stronger statement from the company, I will not be looking to book anything with them until this saga was effectively cleared up. It's too risky.

I would not have a problem booking with MON, course would use CC but would still not have an issue.

Good luck to them.

[daikilo]

Like it or not, something happened this weekend. It may have been premature and it may have been resolved since, but it seems there is/was a risk.

[racedo]

If you had been bothered to do a bit of research, you would already know that the requirement for additional funding is no secret. Monarch published exactly that in their last published accounts and is still on track to make a £40m+ profit this year.

Companies go bust making profits and some making losses survive.

Cash flow is king not Profit.

Any half decent accountant can turn a huge profit into a loss or vice versa very quickly, you either have cash or you don't.

[kaikohe76]

Tinribs,

Are you suggesting that Monarch & by implication it's present & previous Staff, have or might have questionable integrity?

[LiamNCL]

Regardless of what view you have on it Monarch were staring death in the face last night there is no two ways about it ! Whilst those chartered aircraft remain down route at various locations then question marks will remain although looking a far lot better than last night.

[FlyANA]

To anyone from inside MON this is no surprise, the company has spent millions on training every single staff member on 'Customer Service' with a focus on how to say please and thank you. Alongside this an inordinate amount of money is being spent on corporate rubbish aimed to boost 'synergy' in the company.

Staff are disgruntled with the way this amazing and proud company has been managed into the ground by an executive group who are happy to slash pensions, pay and working conditions but will channel huge amounts of funds into pointless vanity projects for their own gain.

[foxmoth]

After 50 years flying the only airline I recall ceasing business in a controlled way was BMI Baby

Novair closed down without going bust and shut down in a controlled way - with a lot of rumours qbout under table deals.

[fokker1000]

I'm sure a decent morally minded accountant couldn't sleep at night or send their children to private school, knowing they might possibly screw thousands of people over.

I would say good night, but not for me.

[FANS]

Did your illustrious CEO receive an industry outstanding achievement award this year!?

He seems a little more camera shy in recent hours.

[FANS]

I'm sure the 2,500 staff are top of the board's priorities, and they'll be kept fully informed if there's anything their little heads need to know.

[ZOOKER]

FlyANA,
Not an uncommon occurrence today, sadly.

[ZeBedie]

I'm sure the 2,500 staff are top of the board's priorities, and they'll be kept fully informed if there's anything their little heads need to know.

FANS, I hope you don't mind me mentioning this, but as a Monarch employee, I find the tone of that comment very offensive. Is there any possibility you could depart the fix, now that you've done enough gloating about the situation?

[Brigantee]

Well said , He /She really is a odious turd ......Clearly getting off on peoples fears .

Im sure monarch will come through this , Great Airline .

[gatbusdriver]

He's just hoping for his glorious " I told you so" moment.

It is quite sickening to see so many people seem to take so much pleasure from telling others that they're buggered. Hopefully they will still be trawling these threads in 20 years time telling you all how you're crazy to be there and it's all going to fall apart!

[Serenity]

Bad luck haters!!
Latest from top exec management is ATOL being sorted, plenty of profit to see Monarch into the winter and new investment in very near future sorted.
Monarch still looking good.

Enjoy your 4 sector min rest days!!

[Hotel Uniform Yankee]

Greybull to offer multi-million pound lifeline ?within days? as Monarch Airlines battles cash crunch speculation (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/26/monarch-airlines-denies-it-is-about-to-go-bust/)

[Contact Approach]

I'll lend them a fiver!

[racedo]

I'm sure a decent morally minded accountant couldn't sleep at night or send their children to private school, knowing they might possibly screw thousands of people over.

I would say good night, but not for me.

Management are the ones that usually allow a company go bust, Accountants report on it and advise on it but a CEO generally does what he wants.

And yeah I do know quite a few accountants who didn't sleep at night while trying to keep enough cash in a business to pay people while senior management didn't give a toss.

[FerrisBueller]

Ya and what are the vast majority of senior management in pretty much every company? Yes you guessed it, accountants! They are not all bad people but some of them are despicable human beings out to line only their own pockets and sleep even better after closing down companies etc because they lined their own pockets! End of rant!

I really hope Monarch pull through this! Thoughts with all you guys and gals. We might all work for various different companies but we should never want to see another pilot lose their job because of greedy corporate management scum.

[downdata]

Accountants on senior management? I'll believe that when the executive boards of airlines are comprised of pilots, flight crew and mechanics.

Seriously, look up the top 50 companies on FTSE/ASX and tell me if you can find two "accountants" sitting as CEOs. The accountants are too busy adding up numbers and doing ledgers at the basement level.

[PAXboy]

FlyANA I've observed that kind of 'modern management' for 30 years across a wide range of business types, when I working in Telecoms/IT. It's the way they 'do' mgmt these days when the 'drivers' (as they like to say) are the share price and/or 'RoI' that generate a pat on the head and a bonus.

If you have a majority of people at the top who have not worked their way up in the business - and CARE about the customer - it doesn't go well. They all parrot about the customer but all the customers know this is not true. Since the Directors are customers of other companies that ignore their customers, it dows make you wonder how they don't work out how easy it is.

[ NOT speaking specifically about Monarch, simply what I have observed in organisations as diverse as local government and international merchant banking. :suspect: ]

[FerrisBueller]

Ignorance is bliss as they say. Here you go downdata, read some of these:

https://www.icas.com/ca-today-news/one-in-four-ceos-are-chartered-accountants
http://www.executiveworks.org/pdf/The_CEO's_background.pdf
https://www.financialdirector.co.uk/financial-director/news/2409128/quarter-of-ftse-100-bosses-are-qualified-accountants
Those in the know on becoming CEO (http://www.charteredaccountants.com.au/News-Media/Charter/Charter-articles/Member-profiles/2011-12-CEOs-Nicole-Hollows-FCA-Peter-Jollie-FCA-Narelle-Pearse-CA.aspx)
Forbes Welcome (http://www.forbes.com/sites/ciocentral/2011/12/05/the-path-to-becoming-a-fortune-500-ceo/#40a9e21d28c9)

A mere selection of the myriad links from google!

[FANS]

Zebedie , that post was my take on how management treat you, certainly not my view on the employees.

I take no pleasure in what is happening and did not predict any of this so can not say I told you so.

My position is very simple:
The employees are going to work under hugely difficult circumstances . Their job is harder as people are constantly asking what's going on ( I'm talking across the whole company here as well as those on the front customer line).
The employees personal situation will be a further huge worry as well. In short, people have a mountain of stress which is exacerbated by not knowing what is really going on. Needless to say, they're getting paid no more to compensate either.

The customers are also not getting proper information, and have half understandably been asking questions on Twitter and being told it's all fine, followed by Monday's announcement that there indeed are issues. So now we're all absolutely clear that monarch will say what they want rather than what's best for the customers to know.

I then turn to your management team. They know exactly what is going and are the pilot of the ship. They don't have your stress of not knowing . Better still, if they pull off a big deal they may be able to walk off into the sunset never having to work again. Meanwhile you've been through hell and back, and are left in the hands of the next owner - whoever is £best for the current shareholders , not you and the company going forwards .

If you want to defend your bosses that's fine - I think you've got Stockholm syndrome .

[ATNotts]

I would agree with you - the usual corporate claptrap promoted, often by people who have never been customer facing in their lives!

A depressing fact of most of our working lives today.

[rjay259]

rjay259

You want to tell me where you heard this 'rumour'? I'm guessing not, but PM me.

Busy flying the line so can't promise I'll reply immediately. MON still appear to be in business.

Sure was a friend asking a question, they had been told by an ATCO that they thought something odd as a/c being parked up. Plus the CAA chartering a/c with frighteningly similar flight times.
Did a quick search and saw nothing so I asked here. After all it is a "rumour" network and generally members here know more ( I state generally as we all know there are those who just like to stir).
I'm glad it's not true and they are ok, I also have friends who work there and am glad it's ok for a little while yet.

[KelvinD]

If you think that 6-8 chartered aircraft flying identical routes, at identical times, with identical flight numbers to Monarch aren't related to ZB then you're a fool.
I just had a quick look and found:
TFS-MAN ZB563 13:00
TFS-MAN UA2284 13:00

LPA-BHX ZB425 20:10
LPA-BHX UA2283 19:40
So where are the "identical flight numbers"?
Monarch flew yesterday's flights, United didn't. So I think that for whatever reasons, what may have been a prudent move by the CAA, this and other forums, plus so-called social media have turned it all into a "sky is falling in" moment. Good luck to Monarch.

[castleford tiger]

To be short of cash at this time of the year is normal in this business. Most of these operations are funded by pre payments and they have unwound over the summer and the booking season proper starts again post Xmas.
The VC boys have a choice of putting more cash in or selling a part of the company. EBITDA means nothing its cash flow over next few months until bookings come in. The worry is that with all this negative press people may not book.
As for aircraft being flown in I cannot comment as to true or not but clearly a leak or two.
My view is cash will be added by Greybull. The key question is why are they short now?
Is it lack of bookings ?
A trading loss over the summer ? they deny this?
Or growth and on going aircraft costs.


As a DART holder and follower its going to be a difficult time for all. Even DART are predicting a 50% fall in profits this year with a further small fall next.


Flying with MON on Sunday so rather hoping all is ok for the excellent team they have there.

[Curious Pax]

There's a United flight on the MAN arrivals board today, 15 minutes after a differently numbered MON flight:

ZB533 1245 Palma
UA2285 1300 Palma

Interestingly (for conspiracy folks) there is also:

TOM2285 2335 Palma

Make of that what you will! The UA aircraft slated for the flight has been sitting at Palma since first thing yesterday.

[IcePack]

Thought the card companies now hold onto the cash until the booked flts actually go. They changed after getting stung by other large airline collapses.
As for Mon being short of cash. Well they knew the ATOL would be due so would have planned for it, so I suspect their was another reason for the "brinkmanship" eg a take over.

[wiggy]

Plus the CAA chartering a/c with frighteningly similar flight times.

Do we know this for a fact (and I mean beyond the virtual world of flight trackers)?

That would mean the CAA being remarkably proactive and throwing cash at a problem that had yet to occur. I'm trying to think of an instance in the past where an airline has gone under and the CAA has ensured assets were in place down route to immediately repatriate holiday makers, etc...

[CCGE29]

Furthermore, a schedule has been posted on A.net for the TS 332 (CGTSR) that is at AGP. First flight is tomorrow morning from AGP-MAN-PMI.

[Council Van]

The US crew can continue to enjoy their Autumn mini break in the Balearic's as the Palma flight to Manchester has been cancelled.

Nice work if you can get it.



Hopefully they will soon be on the way home to the USA having had a waisted journey.

[compton3bravo]

Gee there are a few obnoxious s***s on this thread. We are talking here about the livelihoods of some 2,500 people here directly employed by Monarch and not counting on the many thousands of people across the UK and continental Europe who would be directly involved with its demise. Some seem to relish on others misfortunes, let me tell you I was made redundant four times in my working life and it is not nice. Everybody is entitled to their own opinion but can we have some serious opinions without some of you wishing that the company fails. Shame on you.

[Heathrow Harry]

I think FANS was being ironic and taking a pop at management attitudes TBF

[Heathrow Harry]

Wiggy

The reports in todays press suggest that the CAA had concerns about future funding at Monarch and were workingthe weeknd to try and get it sorted out ahead of next Friday's Licence renewal.

For once someone thought ahead and called round looking at charter availability (which is where I supect the leak came from) - not sure they actually spent any cash but may have had a non-binding agreement of some sort

[Council Van]

I do not know if the comment from Compton is aimed at myself or not. I know all about life as a pilot who has been made redundant and spent 15 months on the dole wondering if I would ever fly for a living again and how I was going to pay my mortgage and support my family as the end of my mortgage protection insurance was imminent.

I had known that my company was going to have the contract I was employed on terminated 18 months prior to the end, unfortunately this was at the height of the last recession. All in I had nearly 3 years of stress and worry, the Monarch crew have my sympathy, I know exactly how they must feel.

I also know several flight deck crew at Monarch so consider it to be a positive sign that the rescue aircraft are sitting idle. The sooner they go home unused the better.

[wiggy]

HH
Many thanks.

[davidjohnson6]

I have seen mention that Monarch will make 40m pounds Ebitda over the current 12 months. For those not familiar with the term, Ebitda = Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. It's also known colloquially as 'Earnings before the bad stuff'.
If intetest is not paid, bank lenders usually get aggressive quickly. Same goes for HMRC and tax. Failing to account for depreciation leads to accountants getting into hot water as well.

So what profit (or loss) is Monarch likely to make after all the 'bad stuff' has been paid and a dividend can be paid to the shareholders ? I realise profits that would be signed off by accountants will be less than £40m but how much less ?

[Brigantee]

Well said Compton , There certainly are a few nasty specimens lurking on here .

I can think of one or two who appeared to have a real hard on over the prospect of hundreds of people losing their jobs.




.

[Job Knockey]

This is a potentially devastating scenario for literally thousands of people. Employees, families, suppliers, job applicants, you name it, there's massive potential for life changing happenings.

So, why don't we all just take a step back, take a breath and leave the subject alone for a day or two? By then, we should all know which way this has all gone.

The doomsayers and trolls will have there day, or the optimists may be proven right.

One thing is for certain, EBITDA, cashflow, seat sales, ATOL, ownership, investment and all that stuff means nothing to a great many people right now. What really matters is payday, mortgages, kids school shoes, putting food on the table, putting fuel in the car to get to the job that they feel may be taken away from them.....

It is 11:07 hours on 27th September.

Shall we see if we can refrain from discussing this for an hour? Then maybe another hour? Then perhaps until tomorrow?

[The96er]

There certainly are a few nasty specimens lurking on here .


Seems to me that most of the aggressive nasty comments are coming from people who are in denial about the whole situation (ZB staff/fanboys) and attacking other posters who are simply making observations.

[eggc]

...and quite correct observations. There is no doubt Monarch were hours away from the end on Sunday night, there is no hiding from that. It's little wonder concern is evident.

[Brigantee]

The point is not whether it was true to not , The point is The obvious delight some appeared to have at the prospect of people losing their jobs that saddens me ,There are some very sick people about im afraid

[Hotel Tango]

There are some very sick people about im afraid

Nothing new in the world. Some of them even run countries!

[The96er]

The point is The obvious delight some appeared to have at the prospect of people losing their jobs

I've followed this thread from the start along with treads on other sites/forums. NO ONE is taking any delight in the situation. People who are making observations (and correct ones at that) are the ones who are being demonized.

[olster]

Nobody is delighting in the financial difficulties of an airline with the implication of job losses and misery for those affected. However, there appears to be some trigger happy responses with associated accusations of taking pleasure in the demise of an airline whereas I have detected none of the sort. However, I was operationally in PMI on Sunday and there sat a UAL Boeing 747 - not something that you see very often in the Balearic airports. It would be very naive to think particularly in the electronic age that this would go without notice and curiosity. Regardless of the shenanigans going on at executive level within Monarch, I also have friends there and I very much hope for a happy outcome for the crew and employees. The execs? Well they always come out with a barrel of cash in our brave new world don't they?

[lederhosen]

Just for info one of the United 747s is still parked up in Palma. I find it hard to believe that someone ferried it over the Atlantic just in case Monarch went bust. But that was the rumour on here and I can confirm that it has been there the last couple of days parked up next to the link. Still there are worse places for the United crew to be than a few days in the Son Vida or somewhere similar. But maybe it is just coincidence and it is there for cruise passengers, which is what I thought when I first saw it.

[DjerbaDevil]

BUSINESS AS USUAL TODAY:

The very good news is that the CAA have obviously re-licensed Monarch for the future, which will be based on concrete assurances and bonds from Greybull to guarantee the airline's future operations and holidays. Evidently Greybull lacked previous experience of dealing with the CAA, who have laws and regulations to adhere to and make no favours to anyone, big or small. Greybull must have upset the CAA last week to the extent that discrete plans were put in place to repatriate Monarch’s customers overseas and most probably even British Consulates abroad would have been requested to stand by to assist. Keen spotters noticed the widebodies coming from the USA and other charters and the discrete planning came to be made public. Greybull will certainly not make the same mistake again, as, without doubt, the costs of the chartered repatriation aircraft will be recharged to them.

And yes, the very good news is that Greybull have guaranteed the ongoing operations at Monarch and the CAA would only accept such promises unless they are backed by bankers’ bonds.

[gopaisleygo]

Great news

[Porky Speedpig]

...or maybe not so discrete plans given the very public nature of the aircraft appearances?
If Greybull are having to pay for this presumably the EBITDAR just took another £2m or so hit? Add that to bookings lost and it will have proven an expensive learning opportunity. Surely they have advisors for how to do business with CAA?

[HH6702]

Are the standby 747 aircraft on way to the US?
Unless they are then nothing has been settled

[eggc]

All still in place around Europe at the minute, United 744's, 3 Omni Airs and a Miami Air 737. Dont think the Air Transat ever turned up. Sure they'll be heading home soon.

[HZ123]

I too have followed the thread and have been in similar situations in my past. The primary point that is irrefutable is that Monarch have been debt laden for many years and as one threader aptly highlighted cash injections are merely stopgaps. There transition between loco and schedule (or vice versa) has been difficult and seemingly to many of us in the industry 'confusing', I hope like many as well as cash they will appoint senior people to get a good airline back on track and in the near future effective and profitable.

If financial targets are not achieved quickly there future does not look sustainable. Despite some negative comments I believe that contributors are saying it as they see it and it is irrelevant what we think to the good hard working Monarch staff. I wish them well and hope this awful situation is resolved.

[eye2eye5]

BUSINESS AS USUAL TODAY:

The very good news is that the CAA have obviously re-licensed Monarch for the future, which will be based on concrete assurances and bonds from Greybull to guarantee the airline's future operations and holidays. Evidently Greybull lacked previous experience of dealing with the CAA, who have laws and regulations to adhere to and make no favours to anyone, big or small. Greybull must have upset the CAA last week to the extent that discrete plans were put in place to repatriate Monarch’s customers overseas and most probably even British Consulates abroad would have been requested to stand by to assist. Keen spotters noticed the widebodies coming from the USA and other charters and the discrete planning came to be made public. Greybull will certainly not make the same mistake again, as, without doubt, the costs of the chartered repatriation aircraft will be recharged to them.

And yes, the very good news is that Greybull have guaranteed the ongoing operations at Monarch and the CAA would only accept such promises unless they are backed by bankers’ bonds.

Is there a press release confirming the above? I haven't noticed one to date.

[Curious Pax]

Dont think the Air Transat ever turned up.

For whatever reason, 330 C-GTSR arrived in Malaga on Monday morning and is still there. The 2 Uniteds are still in Palma and Tenerife respectively.

While the new cash injection is reported to be lined up, it isn't clear (to me) whether the new bond due on Friday has actually been renewed, or whether Monarch have just said it is sorted, and the CAA are holding fire to see whether it all comes through? I suspect the latter, which would explain why the rescue fleet hasn't gone home.

Hopefully the bankers/investors will pull their fingers out and get it properly sorted quickly so that those at the coalface can get on without this hanging over them.

[Airbanda]

While the new cash injection is reported to be lined up, it isn't clear (to me) whether the new bond due on Friday has actually been renewed, or whether Monarch have just said it is sorted, and the CAA are holding fire to see whether it all comes through? I suspect the latter, which would explain why the rescue fleet hasn't gone home.

That was my interpretation too. Personal interest as my daughter was one of the potential strandees. She returned today on ZB513 to MAN. Last reported position was the passport queue at Ringway:-P

[DjerbaDevil]

Is there a press release confirming the above? I haven't noticed one to date.

You are likely to get more accurate information here than from the press.

If you have ever had an dealings with the CAA for licensing or repatriation, you would know that my comments are reasonably accurate


The primary point that is irrefutable is that Monarch have been debt laden for many years and as one threader aptly highlighted cash injections are merely stopgaps. Their transition between loco and schedule (or vice versa) has been difficult and seemingly to many of us in the industry 'confusing', I hope like many as well as cash they will appoint senior people to get a good airline back on track and in the near future effective and profitable.

Totally agree.

[CSman]

Have times changed that much. In all my time in aviation the CAA were never ahead of the drag curve Suprised

[Evanelpus]

She returned today on ZB513 to MAN. Last reported position was the passport queue at Ringway:-P

Eeeee, nostalgia. Don't often hear it referred this way any more.

[triploss]

That plane appears to have flown to Manchester, followed by return flights Manchester-Malaga currently scheduled:
https://www.flightradar24.com/reg/n116ua

[Copenhagen]

CAA have obviously re-licensed Monarch for the future,

Obviously????

That is what we hope, but nothing confirmed yet.

[Severn]

Taken from the BBC News - Business Live Blog:

Monarch's Atol licence set to expire on Friday
Posted at 16:11

Monarch must renew its operating licence this week to continue selling package holidays, the Civil Aviation Authority said.

The company has been hit by rumours that it is in trouble, which have been denied by the firm. But the CCA warned that Monarch's Atol licence expires on Friday and if it is not renewed it will be unable to sell package holidays.

The government-backed Atol scheme, compensates travellers and ensures they are not stranded if a holiday company collapses.

However anyone already booked to travel will be protected as the scheme applies on the booking date, not the travelling date.

[El Bunto]

This is a potentially devastating scenario for literally thousands of people. Employees, families, suppliers, job applicants, you name it, there's massive potential for life changing happenings. And conversely a struggling, debt-laden, desperate airline undermines the general health of the market, affecting many people in the industry for as long as it struggles along and 'transforms' itself whilst sapping revenue from other, healthier airlines and undermining their prospects. Maybe there just isn't a place for Monarch any more. Maybe other airlines could employ more people if Monarch just threw-in the towel. That's not gloating or celebrating, just pragmatism.

[Crosswind Limits]

El Bunto

What the hell? I've never seen a post like this before! Are you for real or just baiting? I've always suspected there has been a campaign to smear and sink Monarch and posts like yours confirm it! Don't kid yourself that you are a calling it for what it is, you are just being plain nasty!

How I wish folks couldn't hide behind anonymity!

[buzz_hornet]

hopefully the Chinese investment is pushed through to cover the licence

[toledoashley]

Interesting the BBC article only refers to package sales, but not the flight only ATOL licence.

[daikilo]

I think what we are seeing in that table on FR is that there was a schedule for the day but that none of the flights have actually operated, so far. Indeed, it looks as though the aircraft is still in PMI.

[111KAB]

Monarch's veteran chairman Sir Roy McNulty headed for exit | London Evening Standard (http://www.standard.co.uk/business/veteran-chairman-of-troubled-monarch-headed-for-exit-a3354921.html)

[Reversethrustset]

It's a horrible situation for all involved. I've been made redundant before and it was horrible and I've also been very close to it with my current employer. That said I don't think burying heads in the sand hoping the issues will go away is very healthy either. I don't really think anyone on here has an agenda or ulterior motive, I think they are just seeing it for what it is, and for there to be United 744s hanging around the Monarch network must mean something is very seriously wrong, and for any employee to think different they are maybe not in touch with reality. Monarch might not be going under, or they might be, either way something is very, very wrong. I wish everyone at Monarch all the very best in these uncertain times and I can only hope and prey you guys will come out the other end with a positive result.

[MonarchOrBust]

Greybull to offer multi-million pound lifeline ?within days? as Monarch Airlines battles cash crunch speculation (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/26/monarch-airlines-denies-it-is-about-to-go-bust/)

Monarch latest: Mystery over ?shadow airline? apparently created for repatriating passengers | The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/monarch-airlines-rumours-flights-air-travel-a7329991.html)

[Crosswind Limits]

I'm certainly not burying my head in the sand! Ultimately the market will decide what happens. Should the much needed large investment happen, as I expect it will very shortly, we will be in very strong position! If for whatever reason it doesn't we will continue to hobble along, teetering on the edge.

Monarch is one of the best airlines in UK history and deserves proper long term funding. I am more than hopeful but also realistic.

I just have a problem with people being unnecessarily insensitive and quite nasty whilst trying to make a point which is blindingly obvious!

[gilesdavies]

Call me a troll if you want, but that is not my intention and I just wanted to state some very clear facts that I heard on LBC lastnight, when they were interviewing an Aviation Analyst on the current situation of Monarch, and his views on the airlines future were not positive...

- It was pointed out how the airline has had numerous cash injections for the last few years. and each time they received this. They advised the airline had a plan to reverse its bad fortunes everytime, but this still seems to be continuing where they cannot stand on their own two feet with the money they have.

- The airline is not attractive to investors as they have an order for Boeing 737s outstanding and this will cost a huge amount to convert the fleet over to the new type, and cost of canceling the order would be immense too...

- He also pointed out with Monarch now becoming a LCC, they are fighting against Ryanair and easyJet who are on average 20-30% cheaper per ticket, and they don't offer the frequency of flights of these carriers. While having almost no USP to separate them from these carriers, is a very price sensitive market.

- Oil prices are currently low compared to years gone by, and inevitably at some point these prices will be going back up. With these lower prices in oil, this is when the airline should be bringing the money in.

[KyleRB]

From my understanding, the previous owners ran the company into the ground. Ask anyone who was there and saw it from the inside not some half baked aviation analyst. For the last 2 years it has just ticked along and has done pretty well with the low oil price etc but to survive in the long haul, will need proper investment possibly from a new shareholder. It needs to build up cash reserves which will only come from an investor committed to the airline in the long term.

The product Monarch offer is better than most of its competitors so there is definitely place for it moving forward.

[toledoashley]

Giles, It is also worth adding to that last comment, that Monarch isn't hedged on fuel, so any increase in oil prices will leave them vulnerable.

[eggc]

Whoever is organising these "relief" flights (CAA) can't be confident about prospects can they ?, as another UAL 744 is due in MAN at 08:47 Friday from SFO (UAL2162).

[Buster the Bear]

Losing the ATOL licence would be a catastrophic blow as what was known as Cosmos Holidays and now trades as Monarch Holidays, sends many thousands of Brits out to the Med each year on Monarch flights.

[KyleRB]

Only time will tell! Losing the ATOL licence would be fatal to Monarch but from all accounts it is about to be sorted. Why on earth it was left to the last minute to sort out is anyone's guess!!

I also understand the whole fleet of Titan Airways was put on standby but has since been stood down until this is resolved.

[rowly6339]

gilesdavies

Spot on there my friend. Nobody wants them to go but how can they carry on being propped up every few years only to be back in the same position a few years later. Let's hope it can be turned around for good, people don't have a go at someone just because they don't believe it will be ok, it's just their opinion which they are entitled to.

[toledoashley]

Buster - Do Monarch have two ATOL licences. One for the flight only sales on the website under 'First Aviation', and another for the holidays side 'Monarch' - it appears they do from the website.

[mattjwood]

Whoever is organising these "relief" flights (CAA) can't be confident about prospects can they ?, as another UAL 744 is due in MAN at 08:47 Friday from SFO (UAL2162)

Showing as cancelled.

[Trent dayne]

I hope Monarch stay afloat but if they don't I'm thinking Jet2 would be able to take over the gap they'll leave. Both have got big orders for 738s. Like I said, just my opinion.

[giggitygiggity]

I know everything is speculatory at the moment but who'd pay for these cancelled rescue flights, the CAA scheme or will Monarch get the bill. I'd assume the cost will be well over a million pounds.

[TartinTon]

CAA pays for all rescue flights out of the ATOL bond if the company fails. If they choose to act prematurely as appears to be the case here then they foot the bill...which means of course that the UK taxpayer actually gets to pay!

Plus I would assume that Monarch will get the opportunity to take the CAA to court for loss of earnings, reputational damage etc etc

I hope whoever pushed the button has their backside covered!! :uhoh:

[TheHippoMan]

Lurked around this forum for a while, never posted but cards on the table I work for Monarch.

The lack of information is seriously irritating. If there are negotiations ongoing, I understand the need for secrecy. The facts I know are annual license negotiations are expected to conclude very soon, current license is valid and Monarch not bankrupt. Why the need for mass charter in the first place?!?!

[FANS]

Is that CAA warning at 16:11 on the BBC , the first public announcement they've made this week?

[toledoashley]

Welcome. The CAA have fuelled this whole saga, from the ghost charter flights to the lack of acknowledgment of the situation If they had just come out and explained the position, then maybe it would have put Monarch in a better light to the public.

[safelife]

China's HNA Group, easyJet eye Monarch Airlines - ch-aviation.com (http://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/45554-chinas-hna-group-easyjet-eye-monarch-airlines)

China's HNA Group and easyJet are among several suitors reportedly vying for a stake of some, if not all, of Monarch Airlines.(...)

[FANS]

It sounds like the license needs to be renewed ASAP and certainly within 72 hours.

Until that's done, it seems to me that Monarchs only got 72 hours left.

[FANS]

I suspect the price may be less today vs April...

[TheHippoMan]

From what I gather second or third hand, you are absolutely right FANS Monarch have only got 72 hours until AOC is pulled.

That's 72 hours that I know for sure that remain employed, Internal Communications seem fairly positive so hopefully investment will be found and we can live to fight another day.

I'd love to know what the CAA were playing at when they decided to charter the aircraft.

[bristol brabazon]

As my daughter is in Cyprus and is due to fly back with Monarch on the 1st of October.I thought I'D check out the ATOL website.On that site there is a ATOL protection cotribution table,this lays out the requirements for Airlines reporting passenger information and payment to ATOL.A company the size of Monarch would report and pay on a monthly basis.Reports need to be filed two weeks after the end of the month with payment made four weeks after that.In other words Augusts report was due second week of September and Julys payment was due second week of September.Monarchs own website mention a figure of 2.5 million passengers a year.The ATOL fee is £2.50 per passenger that would mean an average of £500,000 payable per month.I don,t believe that an organisation like ATOL or CAA would jump the gun.Either a report hasn't been filed or a payment hasn't been made.I do hope for both passengers and staff that the situation can be resolved.

[111KAB]

The same happened 2 years ago (Greybull Capital) when the CAA granted a 3 week extension to the 01/10 'deadline' .... CAA grants Monarch ATOL extension (http://www.travelmole.com/news_feature.php?news_id=2013441)

[IcePack]

Do Easy Jet have an ATOL licence?

[clearanceoverthekeys]

I think the more pertinent question now for the CAA is whether, in the legal sense, those running this company are fit and competent to hold an ATOL licence.

Even if Monarch hand over their dues in full and pay for all of the aircraft which have undoubtedly been chartered to deal with what the ATOL trustees have perceived to be the imminent failure of the business to meet its obligations, the CAA/ATOL have no legal obligation to renew their licence.

[pabely]

Yes https://www.easyjet.com/en/holidays/info/protection/

[cumbrianboy]

you are only covered by ATOL with easy jet if you buy a package holiday through easyJet holidays which is separate to the scheduled airline.

An ATOL and an AOC are different things.

[clearanceoverthekeys]

Yes icepack - number 10915 for packages.

[IcePack]

Thanks. So actually monarch do not require an ATOL licence.
However obviously they do require an AOC.
So the CAA must have been concerned about the AOC. Which IMHO seems a somewhat odd thing if Mon are "trading well". Think someone was not being given the information/proof.

[davidjohnson6]

clearance - the CAA may well have drastic powers in reserve, but will likely be reluctant to use the more extreme options without very good reason for fear of an impending media storm. Furthermore, causing a major UK airline to close would likely be a decision that crosses the desk of a minister in the Dept of Transport as questions would be possible at some level in Parliament.

[KyleRB]

Clearance

I very much doubt whether Monarch will have to pay for the chartered planes. As TartinTon explained earlier, claims are made against the ATOL bond if the airline fails. Monarch has not failed. My guess is there will be separate CAA insurance to cover abortive events such as this.

I very much doubt Monarch will have any difficulty proving they are competent and capable of holding an ATOL certificate. They have held one for many years and it's simply a renewal. Just think about that.

[FANS]

I thought ATOL was mainly an insurance for consumers against an insolvency type event with their airline. Presumably like any insurance , the higher the perceived risk , the higher the cost . If so, it's just a simple matter of grey bull putting their hands in their pocket....

Given the much wider political implications, however , I think many of us suspect that the renewal will have ministerial input.

I'm not sure if not having ATOL = insolvency , however , although clearly it makes matters even harder, and may be a requirement of existing funding

[janeyTA]

Do Easy Jet have an ATOL licence?

No. Their holidays are Atol protected because they are sold through Hotelopia Holidays who hold an Atol. Flight only aren't Atol protected. Flights booked direct with the airline aren't Atol protected because airlines don't hold Atols.

[janeyTA]

I'm not sure if not having ATOL = insolvency

Monarch flights are sold through First Aviation, who hold the Atol. If they no longer held an Atol Monarch could still sell flights direct. There could be no package holidays sold though.

[toledoashley]

Janey, I believe there are two ATOL's. One for flight only sales through the 'Monarch.co.uk' website under the umbrella of First Aviation, and another for packaged sales under 'Cosmos/Monarch Holidays'.

Monarch flight only sales are ATOL protected if ex-UK.

[janeyTA]

Janey, I believe there are two ATOL's. One for flight only sales through the 'Monarch.co.uk' website under the umbrella of First Aviation, and another for packaged sales under 'Cosmos/Monarch Holidays'.

Monarch flight only sales are ATOL protected if ex-UK.


True. There are 2 Atols, but if Cosmos (trading as Monarch Holidays) can't renew then there will be no package sales available.

Yes, the first flight has to originate in the UK to be protected but obviously the inbound is protected when booked all on one ticket.

[toledoashley]

What is unclear is if it is a condition of trading (by ?) that flight only sales are protected by an ATOL. In which case that would be a problem.

[INKJET]

I find this a rather strange event in UK aviation history, i can recall nothing like it and it must be very worrying for Monarch employees.

The CAA are many things, but they are normally very measured in the actions they take unless there is a direct and immediate safety threat, that is unlikely to be the case here.

Grey bull are no doubt used to brinkmanship, its the nature of their business in dealing/buying distressed assets, but they have been around long enough and in this industry long enough to know that with out the appropriate licences to operate in a heavily regulated industry, then their assets can quickly be sized to pay debts.

As to Monarch itself, the people i know that work there say its still closer to a legacy airline than say Ryanair or easyJet in terms of its efficiency or cost base, but a long way from the halcyon days of yore, we know that when Greybull acquired them that they were incredibly lucky with their timing, Monarch i'm told did not have the financial assets to secure forward hedging on fuel and when the fuel price collapsed they got an immediate advantage over hedged rivals.

Talk of a Jet2 buyout is in my view very unlikely, they were closely involved with bmibaby in its dying throes and watched it die then pick up many of the routes and crew without paying for any risky investment, why would they see Monarch differently? plus they have just taken on a huge gamble with expanding at both BHX and STN i doubt they have the stomach or money to take Monarch, same probably applies to Norwegian and easyJet who have not had a good year, it would be petty cash money for FR but not their style either, anyone from outside the EU will have ownership issues.

So its probably down to Greybull to find the money or another investor, good luck to all

[Lawro]

One way or another , those who own Monarch will end up paying for all costs incurred , the CAA are very good at that .

[Artie Fufkin]

anyone from outside the EU will have ownership issues
would an EU investor even think about getting involved in our current political climate?

[FANS]

Is the ATOL circa £5m? If so, it's relatively small beer for an airline Monarch's size but brinkmanship is a game played better by some than others.

[Copenhagen]

And the ATOL deposit should roll from one year to another. Me thinks this is bigger than just the £5m deposit.

ZB Spanish capacity up 20+% this year with a 10% demand uptake and falling yields means that late summer profits were stretched.

[xraydice]

Well well I come back to civilization after a few days away, I find chicken Licken is running around shouting that the sky is falling in.
For the purpose of the exercise insert the name of an airline, any airline, run a shadow repat schedule and a logistics fulfillment scenario,some one will pick up on it ,read more into the financial situation ( faced by nearly all operators ) In the old days rumor did not become reality through idle chat and speculation, now if it is repeated enough it will be accepted as the truth and the horses well and truly frightened.
If an airline goes it will go very quickly and with very little advance public notice.

[Una Due Tfc]

Having sold their 330s, they don't have long haul capacity to mitigate some of the damage done by Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey etc becoming shall we say "unappealing" to tourists due to recent events in the same way that Thomson and Tommy Cook can.

I wish them well, and more importantly I wish all their employees well. Hope there'll be an end to the rumours and speculation soon. Chin up guys and gals, keep fighting.

[JanetFlight]

Just a simple answer to those who still think as a conspiranoia the fact only North American WB metal are doing the stand-by task and almost no european carrier except an A330 of portuguese HiFly (United, Omni, Atlas, etc). All resumes in a simple 4 letter word »»» Hajj

[ATNotts]

Well well I come back to civilization after a few days away, I find chicken Licken is running around shouting that the sky is falling in.
For the purpose of the exercise insert the name of an airline, any airline, run a shadow repat schedule and a logistics fulfillment scenario,some one will pick up on it ,read more into the financial situation ( faced by nearly all operators ) In the old days rumor did not become reality through idle chat and speculation, now if it is repeated enough it will be accepted as the truth and the horses well and truly frightened.
If an airline goes it will go very quickly and with very little advance public notice.
Yes indeed, but with 21st century technology it's really hard for public facing businesses, particularly those that take customer's money upfront, to do business in private.

How, pre-FR24 and internet fora would anyone have found out and had the means to broadcast the chartering of aircraft by the CAA last weekend?

Is the world a better place as a result? Personally I doubt it, but we are where we are, and the clock ain't being turned back any time soon!

[JSCL]

On the flip side for everyone, if you were a betting man, it's a very good time to book flights with Monarch for later this year. Their flight prices have been smashed right down on many routes.

[HH6702]

28 United crew flew home yesterday and another 28 arrived at Manchester this morning.
I'm guessing nothing has changed yet

[FANS]

Have Monarch actually reduced prices?

Surely that just makes matters worse - it directly impacts profit, sends further messages out re desperation. Yes it helps short term cash ( subject to credit card companies) but I think it spooks people more.

[ATNotts]

28 United crew flew home yesterday and another 28 arrived at Manchester this morning.
I'm guessing nothing has changed yet
How would you know that? Do you have access to the passenger information?

Anyway, were they 744 crew, or perhaps crew destined to operate UK schedules?

This is just the sort idle rumourmongering that will assist in sending Monarch under, along with their employees. Some spotters just won't give up will they? Hopefully your employer may find themselves in the media spotlight - imagine how you'd feel if others were indulging in idle speculation that put your job under threat.

[azz767]

28 United crew flew home yesterday and another 28 arrived at Manchester this morning.
I'm guessing nothing has changed yet


At least the loads will be half decent on the United services

[22/04]

I think many people here are living a little in the past- we live in a world where internet access means lots of people and the media have lots of access to lots of information and the media will use it to stay in business.

The real fault here is with Monarch management who have said nothing to dispel this and made no statement as to the airline's actual position - and appear to have mis-mananged the company (or perhaps got into to something they shouldn't have when they bought it). I can't imagine the management of Ryanair, BA EasyJet getting into this mess.

As for Monarch slashing prices- they may not have to; their yield management system may do it for them to try to keep the aeroplanes full.

[ATNotts]

The real fault here is with Monarch management who have said nothing to dispel this and made no statement as to the airline's actual position - and appear to have mis-mananged the company (or perhaps got into to something they shouldn't have when they bought it). I can't imagine the management of Ryanair, BA EasyJet getting into this mess.

I'm struggling to understand what Monarch's management could have said. Had they said that everything was fine the usual suspects would have, and did, rubbish the statement.

Had they said they were in the brown sticky stuff, and negotiating with financiers to save the business they would have gone bankrupt.

They did, as I recall, say the business is operating profitably, and that talks were underway to secure further investment (dosh to you and I!). That, I would say was a fair assessment of their situation, without, to use a political cliche, "giving a running commentary".

The carriers you mention would have exactly the same dilemma, and the commentators would generally only want to believe their version of the truth, be it fact, or fiction.

[daikilo]

From what I have seen, Monarch Arline is saying they are financially strong. What they have not said is whether Moarch Holdings and/or Monarch holidays are also.


Time will tell, but what I suspect we are seeing is a possible shutdown of the Holidays operation and a need to repatriate rapidly due to suppliers such as hôtels not being paid (possibly with outstanding debts), and the airline being unable to provide the adequate additional capacity to cover all routes.


If this is the case then it leads to an interesting question of the responsibilities when the Holiday part of a holding folds (or is folded) yet the airline part continues to operate. Indeed, it would be interesting to know at what price the Holiday arm is billed for the airline flights, and when i.e. have they already been paid for the return seats?


As to the role of internet and in particular blogs, yes it accélérâtes communication, but it is not like the planes flown in are done so by stealth and it is difficult to hide a 747 on an airport from anyone who is half-trying to be observant. The risk is that posters do not make it clear as to what is fact and what is supposition or even totally unfounded. Wikipédia requires cross-references to establish where the information was sourced.

[daikilo]

A correction to my post above: it seems that it is Monarch Holdings who say they are financially strong and not the airline division, although I believe I have seen a post saying that the airline has been the largest contributor to profit in the recemt past.


My apologies for the misinformation.

[MonarchOrBust]

How would you know that? Do you have access to the passenger information?

Anyway, were they 744 crew, or perhaps crew destined to operate UK schedules?

This is just the sort idle rumourmongering that will assist in sending Monarch under, along with their employees. Some spotters just won't give up will they? Hopefully your employer may find themselves in the media spotlight - imagine how you'd feel if others were indulging in idle speculation that put your job under threat.

Very easy, they were seen checking in and out of one of the Manchester airport hotels and the sign in sheet clearly said United crew.

[HH6702]

Well if holiday part was to close down they would just stop selling package holidays and by October 2017 that part of the business would be gone.
Still struggling as to why the company would want the brand to suffer.

As for management they should have just said the ATOL is paid end of story but they haven't.

Feel sorry for the crews that are reading this but if I was monarch crew I would be worried too it's not a nice thing to have to go through.
Hard to try and do you daily job excellent for pax with this all going on

[cumbrianboy]

United airlines crew check into hotels on a daily basis at manchester guven that united fly in daily. They also check into heathrow hotels, birmingham hotels, newcastle etc etc ...

Thats hardly evidence!!

[eggc]

There were 20 odd of them got off yesterdays inbound as passengers rather than ending their shift working the inbound flight, as 20 odd went the opposite way.

That said although I believe they did arrive for "just in case" purposes I do fully believe they will not be needed and MON will announce any time license renewed....the sooner the better.

[KyleRB]

Expected renewal date is tomorrow - not expecting any news before then.

I'm 90% certain they'll get the green light from the CAA!

[blackbeard1]

Expected renewal date is tomorrow - not expecting any news before then.

I'm 90% certain they'll get the green light from the CAA!
Brinkmanship like this does not inspire my confidence in the management of Monarch or the airlines future stability.

[Sean Dillon]

There is some strange 'head in sand' spotter nonsense on here! Having spoken to my mates in Monarch, I can assure you they are aware of the risks and now know 'something' serious is still ongoing!

FACT: aircraft & crews in the UK are/have been on standby for over 7 days now, payed for!

As Kyle has said, Friday will no doubt reveal lots more and I hope to god a solution, I'm also 90% sure Monarch will be operating on Saturday.

[750XL]

There's still over 7 aircraft on standby across Europe, with crews in place to operate these flights (United 744 crew at MAN included). There's more than Just United/Omni/Air Transat included in these rescue flights, which it seems no one has noticed yet.

[Buster the Bear]

ATOL deadline day is tomorrow for deposits with the CAA.

[warrior28]

There seems to be a complete misunderstanding of the issues.
As a retired senior airline executive , I would like to add my ideas.
1. Monarch ( ATOL) is still selling package holidays, to repatriate these pax
will take some weeks if the ATOL is cancelled at midnight tomorrow.
2. If the ATOL is cancelled there is nothing to prevent the airline (ZB)
TO FLY as a lowcost carrier , providing the Airline is not in breach of
its AOC and a sound business plan is in place.
.
The percentage split flight only against tour operating is of course the key.
Maybe someone should look at Companies House to check latest
filings. ( Airline and Monarch Holidays ).
If the Package side is dropped I am sure a light weight cost Carrier can rise
from the ashes.
THE AIRLINE IS TOO GOOD TO VANISH.

[HH6702]

Still struggling why they changed the name to monarch from cosmos holidays though if the plan was to sell the holiday side

[daikilo]

Warrior28


I have read in this thread or from Monarch that over 6m pax are carried of which about 800000 are as part of the Holidays operation. I have not been able to ascertain whether these are one-way or round-trips but whatever, it looks as if Holidays is probably about 15% of pax carried.


Also, I have no idea how average revenue from a holidays pax compares with a seat-only ticket so revenue per market could be higher or lower in the above percentage terms.


Monarch was very clear in the past that they wanted to evolve into a scheduled carrier and I believe have done what was needed to structure costs in line with expected revenus, so yes, dropping holidays could actually strengthen the group in the long term (at least on a unit-margin basis). What was perhas an error was to rebrand Cosmos as Monarch Holidays which, if closed or spun-off, could indeed do the brand short-term damage if it is not handled well.

[warrior28]

Just checked CAA stats.
Total Group authorised ( First Aviation/Cosmos/Avro) C 2.75 M pax , so maybe 800,000
on low side or they have over estimated their bonding requirements ???

[Call Established]

Do they not need:

1 - An ATOL bond for package holidays
2 - A bond against the OL which is determined by a liquidity check completed by ERG at the CAA ???

I thought those not operating charters or scheduled flights still require a bond for Type A licences regardless ? or if you pay the ATOL you don't need an AOC/OL bond ? I.E 3 months of working capital and no income or thereabouts ?

[daikilo]

Warrior28


Which year was that?


However, the plot thickens as when I search Cosmos Holidays I get "Holiday Hypermarket" which is a TUI subsidiary, although it states that Cosmos is now Monarch Holidays. Is Holiday Hypermarket just a shop for other's Holidays or do they need an ATOL? Is Globus still involved?

[daikilo]

Also, what is the role of First Aviation as, although it appears under the Monarch (Holdings?) brand, it appears to lease capacity only to tour operators. As it doesn't appear to be an airline, presumably it is operating as a kind of broker or possibly intermediary. Indeed, do some/all Monarch Holidays seats go through First Aviation and thus may not be on Monarch Airlines flights?

[FANS]

Regardless of legal entities and minimum requirements, if Monarch can't sort out the ATOL point within 24 hours, its brand is knackered.

The last press release by them was Monday, it's now Thursday night and the funding is still not sorted. I would hope it would be done tonight as everyone will be getting very tired, or a sale announced.

[NotoriousREV]

Does anyone know if these suspected CAA chartered aircraft are still in resort?