EI-BUD, I think you hit the nail with your comment about FR being a deterrent. Norwegian moved away from STN partly to distance themselves from FR (DY isn't such a low sevice airline as FR is), but there were other reasons like different socio-economic profile (10% higher share of A/B at LGW), larger base of potential passengers with UK citizenship (22 million vs. 10 million), and we may also add the differences between the two regarding public transport in to London.

Wizzair
 

With all the talk of new owners and trying to attract new business to the airport, I was wondering on what you guys thought of the possibility of the new owners of Stansted trying to attract a major new customer like Wizzair to the airport and stealing them from Luton as the airlines London hub...

Im sure if some of the Luton Fanboys are frequenting this forum, they will be telling me to shut up and say this has been discussed by me in Luton forum, but was interested in getting a balance opinion.

Being more of an LTN fan myself, I hope they don't leave, but trying to keep the discussion balanced. It does make me wonder if MAG have an airline like Wizzair on their wish list as a potential customer they would like to attract.

With the airline having no aircraft based at Luton and only night stopping a single A320 in the summer months to cover the Spilt and Dubrovnik services, any move for the airline would be painless. While at the same time bringing around 25-30 extra flights a day to the airport and boosting passenger numbers by around 2.5 million a year.

Due to the number of flights a day and Wizzair turning the airport pink and purple between the hours of about 7.30 and 8.30 every morning with around twelve A320's on the ground, I doubt there are any other London airport other than Luton and Stansted that have the capacity to handle this at present.

Wizzair is a very price sensitive airline, and if they could be offered a financial deal, which LTN couldn't, I reckon the airline wouldn't hesitate to move if the price was right, this has been demonstrated in the past by them moving their Warsaw ops to Modlin and similarly in Bucharest and Kiev.

The only thing I can think of, that could possibly deter them is flying head to head with Ryanair on a number of routes... But Ryanair flies head to head with them out of Warsaw and Budapest on numerous routes and Wizzair seems to be holding their own and recently Ryanair announced they were cancelling a number of routes out of Budapest, while Wizz are basing another A320 their from this summer.

Be keen to know all your views...

My view is that I would like it, being more of a STN fan myself, which I'm sure many of you will already know HOWEVER being an analyser of airline and airport routes and timtables, I see it as being a fairly unlikely move.

It goes back to the situation discussed above about Ryanair being a deterrent to some traffic. Perhaps what I should have said in in my earlier post is that any airline that wants a base OR would fly high frequency into Stansted may be put off by the large Ryanair presence. Airlines flying say 2 or 3 routes with up to only a few flights a day may not be so bothered about Ryanair, especailly if where they would serve is not served by Ryanair. (That's why I think Air Berlin, Aurigny, Germanwings and Pegasus have not moved away from Stansted because Ryanair doesn't serve their home markets, only FR's Weeze route competes indirectly with AB Dusseldorf route).

Therefore I think Wizzair would be one of those put off by Ryanair since a lot of the routes they serve, especially to Poland and the Baltic states, are already frequently operated by Ryanair from Stansted. I know Wizzair do compete directly with Ryanair across many airports in Europe, but Stansted is Ryanair's home turf.

However, since the Romanian market is unserved from Stansted and Bulgaria virtually unserved, another option may be to only move routes to those coutries, splitting services between both Luton and Stansted, like they do in Rome for example. For operational reasons however, I would find that move surprising although since they don't have a base at Luton that may make it more feasible but I'm not so sure on that, you'd need to ask somebody with a little more knowlege on operations. I aslo think Wizzair would have to give up the huge influx of traffic between 7:00 and 8:30am as slot usage at Stansted is very high already at those times. Flights would probably have to be spread out more throughout the day or in the quieter afternoon periods which may not be ideal for some passengers.

At most, I think you'd get a split between both airports with Bulgarian and Romanian routes going to Stansted and the others staying at Luton but there would probably have to be a heck of a good deal they virtually cannot turn down for them to even consider that in my view.

Wizz have dipped their toe into Stansted but didn't stay long. Can't see much has changed since then.

So what are passengers reaction to the £2 drop off fee at Stansted? I hear that Luton might be about to charge the same.

Very poor with the locals but for those further afield I have no idea, more importantly would be the reaction of the airlines that the airport is targeting. The idea works at an airport where the (low cost) airlines don't care, airlines like EK will not operate to an airport where there is a £2 charge to drop off.

MAG have this charge at EMA and BOH but not at MAN, what MAG do with this charge at STN will give a big clue about the sort of airport they want to be.

But EK will fly to airports where there is a £1 for 10 mins charge (BHX), £1 for 15 mins charge (NCL) or £1.50 for 10 mins charge (GLA)

I stand corrected !

Manchester and Stansted are two totally different markets !

Just because airline X operates into Manchester does not mean there is a better than even chance that it will be persuaded to operate from a strip of concrete with tumbleweed blowing about the apron !

Whilst your optimism is laudable, trust me, the feeling is not shared by Mancunians "upt North", who think the decision to buy Stansted is
the most ill-conceived decision since...... ( deleted due abundance of swear words)


PS ...however now that we have found bonds with our East Anglian cousins can we have all your long haul freight traffic ... shifting all Fed Ex traffic to MANCHESTER will do nicely for starters !

Just to correct you GLA is free to drop off/pick up.

Just because airline X operates into Manchester does not mean there is a better than even chance that it will be persuaded to operate from a strip of concrete with tumbleweed blowing about the apron !

Exactly the point several of us have being trying to make. Unfortunately STN's No1 fan can't seem to fathom that this is not 2003 with much lower fuel costs, a reasonable economy and low APD. Instead, ten years on, things are very different!

Cue a lengthy missive about how MAG are so different and that the sun always shines in Essex now!:ugh::ugh::}

Live in Surrey

Base of potential passengers being bigger at LGW ?
Base means nothing unless there is a propensity to fly and solely use the airport?

Live in Surrey so supposedly am in LGWs catchment area as are friends and neighbours. Of those who actually fly, they are just as likely to fly from any London airport and include Bournemoth into that calc as well.

I would say LHR is the airport most use despite LGW being a lot closer then LGW just above STN with LTN and BOH coming behind but even BOH does ok.

I must admit not to knowing anybody who flies more than once a year who will soley use one airport.

racedo, well the most important airport for Surrey according to the UK CAA survey for 2011 was LGW with 2.2 million passengers with LHR in second place with 2.0 million. Third is LTN with 0.8 millon and fourth is STN with 134,000. Since BOH had only 690,000 passengers in 2012, I don't think for Surrey it will reach the STN levels. I think it's better to know than just will guessing.

LTN has a direct rail link with Surrey which must help

Unless the UK economy starts to grow reapidly, the cost of aviation fuel decreases hugely and APD is axed, passenger growth at most UK airports will continute to stagnate or decline.

Problem with surveys is that you only get the answers of the people who answer not those who don't or who cannot be bothered to stop.

APD is a cash cow and Govts need cash.

Quote: "Live in Surrey

Base of potential passengers being bigger at LGW ?
Base means nothing unless there is a propensity to fly and solely use the airport?

Live in Surrey so supposedly am in LGWs catchment area as are friends and neighbours. Of those who actually fly, they are just as likely to fly from any London airport and include Bournemoth into that calc as well.

I would say LHR is the airport most use despite LGW being a lot closer then LGW just above STN with LTN and BOH coming behind but even BOH does ok.

I must admit not to knowing anybody who flies more than once a year who will soley use one airport."

All depends on the part of Surrey. For much of Surrey LHR is the nearest and the airport of choice, particularly in the west (straight up the M3 from Camberley), or the north (490 bus from Richmond for instance).

On the other hand, from Croydon, its a short train ride to LGW. Those on the same railway line can also access LTN quite easily. From Woking, SOU is an easy train ride away.

STN is not an easy journey from any part of Surrey.

Much depends on availibility of destination which favours LHR and LGW, as well as price, timings, convenience, etc..

MAG have started their plans to re-colonise STN

Air Moldova (Moldovia's Flag Carrier Airline) have announced that they are moving their entire operation from Gatwick to Stansted on the back of better deals, more flexibility and better slots.

It's only a twice weekly service on Mondays and Fridays but, as Tesco keep telling us, Every Little Helps

Routes News - Stansted secures Air Moldova with "more attractive" offer

I thought Air Moldova moved out of Stansted a while back to Gatwick?

Indeed they did, along with a list of other airlines in recent years so this certainly is good sign. Hopefully the list of airlines moving into Stansted will continue to grow, we shall see.