Flybe-V2

[TartinTon]

Originally Posted by BA318

It was mentioned before that Flybe said they could operate empty for two years and still survive so who knows maybe 19% is better than expected for month 1. Either way with the delays and cancellations it’s likely they didn’t make much money in month 1.

Name me ANY airline that makes money in month 1? I would assume that their expectation is to lose a large chunk of money in year one, a small amount in year 2 and break even small profit in year 3 as they ramp up operations.

That would be reasonable.

[BHX5DME]

Originally Posted by TartinTon

Load factors for the first 4 months were 65.2% / 56.3% / 58.5% / 54.9%...CAA data to be updated with the proper numbers in the near future, I understand.

They are quite impressive when you consider that capacity growth was 403% Apr - May / 24% May- Jun and 50% Jun - Jul

Flybe
June = 24,158 pax with a LF of 53.4%, May was 100% wrong.
.
Aer Lingus UK - 60.5%
Eastern - 60.6%

So I would say a really good start by FlyBe

[willy wombat]

Let’s be honest. We don’t know the yield. Given Eastern’s pricing I would be willing to bet that their yield was a lot higher than Flybe’s.

[Albert Hall]

Right from the first posting the CAA reported numbers were so bad that there must be doubt if they were true. The numbers above look more in the ballpark of what you’d expect with some routes doing well and others like LBA-LHR dragging down the average. Interesting that we get the proper numbers here first though!

The Companies House document is interesting more for what it doesn’t say than what it does.

No shareholder is allowed under the CAA airline financing rules to take security over assets or intellectual property for their initial investment into an airline. The shareholder ranks behind all other creditors. This has now changed with the charges over Flybe assets and IP (which was the case with Cyrus investment into Flybe 1 also). If a charge has been registered then it means that additional money has gone in.

[CabinCrewe]

since when did 50% loads become great? I would have thought that was dire.

[Chesty Morgan]

30 passengers paying how much?

Back in the day when fuel was cheaper a figure of 35 passengers was mooted by Flybe for break even.

I suspect your figure of 30 is way wide of the mark these days.

[BA318]

Originally Posted by Chesty Morgan

30 passengers paying how much?

Back in the day when fuel was cheaper a figure of 35 passengers was mooted by Flybe for break even.

I suspect your figure of 30 is way wide of the mark these days.

Indeed. If they could break even at 30 pax on a Q400 Flybe1 would still be here.

Ryanair say their break even load factor is 55%. And they are masters at ancillary revenue, using dense 737s.

If they are making money carrying less than half a plane load of people at the fares they charge while paying for fuel, landing fees, crew costs, admin charges etc and all the other costs then well done. And if the load figures quoted are correct that means they should be on their way to making a healthy profit. Fantastic.

If this is true it’s wonderful and should allow plenty more routes to flourish.

[JobsaGoodun]

Originally Posted by Flightrider

Unless they are making a complete horlicks of their CAA statistics submission (which I guess is a possibility) then May's CAA figures do not make for happy reading.

Flybe Q400 fleet has 10,024 passengers uplifted across 654 stage flights so an average of 15.3 passengers per flight. Looking at the data another way, they had 18,694,000 seat km available and the report states 3,677,000 used which gives you the same answer - 19.6% load factor.

I wouldn’t be be quite so quick to assume the worst of Flybe unless you’ve evidence to demonstrate that Flybe have provided the data? I’m fairly sure that there is no obligation on any airline to report their passenger numbers to the CAA for publication and that these figures come from reporting airports. I’m also not sure all airports are included in the data collected.

[ATNotts]

Anyone, including the owners could never have expected FlyBe to be turning a profit within two months of start up, especially given the equipment delivery issues they have suffered. Did any airline turn a profit within 8 weeks of kick-off?

[Albert Hall]

Come on Airsouthwest, if you’ve been in the industry for as long as the username suggests, you know that’s rubbish just as the rest of us do. 30 passengers at £39.99 less £13 APD and maybe a tenner a head to the airport is £509.70 nett income from the flight - that’s way below break even even against direct costs before you take fixed costs into the equation.

[JobsaGoodun]

Originally Posted by Chesty Morgan

30 passengers paying how much?

Back in the day when fuel was cheaper a figure of 35 passengers was mooted by Flybe for break even.

I suspect your figure of 30 is way wide of the mark these days.

This is an impossible metric to equate without knowing the yields Flybe (or any airline) is achieving. Old Flybe was achieving load factors of over 70% and still losing money hand over fist. I’d expect them to be aiming for at least this to break even, especially when selling low yielding tickets to win market share.

[JobsaGoodun]

Originally Posted by BA318

Interesting in the companies house filing is the list of domain names Flybe has registered (I assume to stop squatters for future opportunities and to stop bad ones) they include flybebreaks.com, flybefranchises.com and the more entertaining IhateFlybe.com, flybesucks.com and flybestinks.com

Highly likely that this IP was purchased along with the brand, rather than the new airline specifically registering the domains,

[bean]

Originally Posted by BA318

Indeed. If they could break even at 30 pax on a Q400 Flybe1 would still be here.

Ryanair say their break even load factor is 55%. And they are masters at ancillary revenue, using dense 737s.

If they are making money carrying less than half a plane load of people at the fares they charge while paying for fuel, landing fees, crew costs, admin charges etc and all the other costs then well done. And if the load figures quoted are correct that means they should be on their way to making a healthy profit. Fantastic.

If this is true it’s wonderful and should allow plenty more routes to flourish.

oh for gods sake. The figures were wrong
load factor was more than 50%. SO SORRY TO CARRY SUCH DISSAPOINTING NEWS

[SWBKCB]

Originally Posted by JobsaGoodun

I wouldn’t be be quite so quick to assume the worst of Flybe unless you’ve evidence to demonstrate that Flybe have provided the data? I’m fairly sure that there is no obligation on any airline to report their passenger numbers to the CAA for publication and that these figures come from reporting airports. I’m also not sure all airports are included in the data collected.

From the CAA website:

Frequently asked questions - What is the souce of UK airline data? UK Airline data are provided by UK Air Operator's Certificate (AOC) holders.

https://www.caa.co.uk/data-and-analy...otes-and-faqs/

[SKOJB]

Chill pills need to be taken for a lot of users on this thread!

[BA318]

Originally Posted by bean

oh for gods sake. The figures were wrong
load factor was more than 50%. SO SORRY TO CARRY SUCH DISSAPOINTING NEWS

Calm down. As usual you’ve misread the post. I was referring to the comment that they need 30 pax to break even. That’s less than 50% while Ryanair say they need more. I just found that hard to believe. I didn’t even mention the actual load figure in the post.

If you continued to read the post you’ll see I said if it’s true it’s great. It means plenty of routes can be sustained and added.

Chill out a bit. It’s perfectly fine to discuss these things. We don’t have to agree and our discussions are not going to change anything either way.

[Albert Hall]

Airsouthwest, you are so far off the mark that it would be amusing if it wasn’t so sad. From all I’m told, Flybe has no fuel hedging so a “fixed price fuel agreement” is something they will probably have heard of but don’t have when it’s most needed.

I don’t know SWBKCB, BA318, Skipness 1E and others but I do think they have a closer grasp of the harsh realities than anything I’m seeing from you or Bean whose views seem closely aligned.

Time in the industry does not automatically create practical, usable experience. You can meet people with 30 years service who remain clueless and those with far less who are far more astute. Confusing the two is one of the most dangerous things you can do.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Originally Posted by airsouthwest

Spot on. The usual pessimistic arseholes are out again. Awaiting responses from BA318 and Skipness One Foxtrot with their bullshit. One reason why I don't come on the forum much these days armchair "experts" with no real experience in the industry only sitting behind a computer desk playing flight simulator and think after half hour they're somehow qualified to give an professional opinion that's supposedly more accurate than someone that's been in the industry 10 years LOL.

Ok I am senior data analyst with two decades working in P&L reporting and marketing analytics in SQL, SAS and Python, I am regularly asked to provide insight at C Suite level, I have also more than a few years working with travel industry clients, numbers and predictive models are my daily bread. Now if you can stop swearing like a wee boy in the playground for a minute, why don't you share your creds? When you say you've been in the industry for ten years, going by your utter lack of professionalsm, it's safe to say you're employed cleaning the bogs? There's no way you'd be trusted down the pointy end IMHO. This isn't personal, it's a fair commentary on the impact of flybe coming back from bankruptcy on others who managed to keep going.

[wanna]

Re the figures. If they aren't correct why were they submitted and secondly if they're not correct where are the official figures? All seems a little odd.

Its easy to think certain routes are doing very well and all is good. However Ive counted Pax off one of their leased ATRs, less than 20. Also keep in mind the leased in 170/175 will have a higher number of seats that would also help to lower the % number. Both the ATR and Embraer whilst not Flybe's are operating under the Flybe AOC so will still have their figures reported by Flybe.

[BA318]

Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot

Ok I am senior data analyst with two decades working in P&L reporting and marketing analytics in SQL, SAS and Python, I am regularly asked to provide insight at C Suite level, I have also more than a few years working with travel industry clients, numbers and predictive models are my daily bread. Now if you can stop swearing like a wee boy in the playground for a minute, why don't you share your creds? When you say you've been in the industry for ten years, going by your utter lack of professionalsm, it's safe to say you're employed cleaning the bogs? There's no way you'd be trusted down the pointy end IMHO. This isn't personal, it's a fair commentary on the impact of flybe coming back from bankruptcy on others who managed to keep going.

Well said. There’s only two users on here who feel the need to swear or insult. The rest manage to have a civil conversation even if disagreeing and yet claim they are the professionals. As far as I’m aware there’s no need to upload your CV before posting here but most people have some experience - personally I worked with route development at an airport and communications at an airline. However experience isn’t everything. Flybe1 was run by experienced people. It went bust. Technically COW is experienced in the industry but every carrier she’s run has ended up in trouble. So perhaps just be polite and respectful regardless.