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Old 27th Mar 2024, 12:09
  #3021 (permalink)  
 
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Spot on. AGS seem uninterested in growth and developing a pro-active approach to airport ops and customer experience.
I can’t agree, as the company has spent millions extending the runway. They wouldn’t have done this unless they were not committed to substantial growth. The problem is that the airlines are not playing ball.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 12:16
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Originally Posted by LTNman
I can’t agree, as the company has spent millions extending the runway. They wouldn’t have done this unless they were not committed to substantial growth. The problem is that the airlines are not playing ball.
The airlines are not playing ball,because of the much talked about restrictions on runway performance and Airport opening hours
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 12:25
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That’s the problem but that is out of the control of AGS. Clearly they thought that a runway extension would be enough and would light the blue touch paper. Maybe they were actually wasting their money?
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 12:28
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There is ample room at Southampton for an orange airline to grow. Whilst I agree the hours may prevent a based aircraft, if they had 2-3 weekly flights from some of their Med bases, Southampton would see a substantial growth in pax numbers.

Whether they have the appetite for it is another thing. They may feel their aircraft are better utilised elsewhere.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 12:29
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As usual this thread is full of negativity. I am beginning to think some of you guys actually wet your pants with excitement when the news is not so good.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 12:32
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Hi all, I’m a new contributor with around 30 yrs in the aviation industry, Hampshire born/bred & lived away & overseas for many years but always followed the local aviation scene here with great interest so I hope my comments are relevant & interesting to all. Though without the Jet2 news is a game changer for BOH, my 1st airport of choice has always been SOU given my home location & it’s exemplary access links (I was home via train within 20 mins of arriving from AMS in rush hour again yesterday). I was amazed & delighted to see the runway extension at SOU approved after many years of conjecture, COVID and the environmental sensitive debates that often overshadow the aviation industry these days, but anything that negates a slog up the M3 to board a plane at silly o clock - especially for a short haul flight - makes sense to me. Having said that, the remaining operational constraints at SOU together with the Jet2 development bring the AGS partnership with EZY into laser like focus, and the key more than ever to SOU’s long term future. I completely agree with a previous post that an operation on the scale planned by Jet2 is outside the scope of SOU’s current operational capabilities anyway. However with the day-trip business market largely gone since COVID, servicing VFR and leisure business at competitive rates on an attractive route network will be the key to survival. I had to fly to GLA last Sept before EZY came into the route and had to pay £380 return for the privilege so I welcome EZYs increased frequencies this year and wish them all the best. Though the regional carriers have been SOU’s bedrock in the past, no-one should be afraid of competition in a free market & you're in the wrong business if you are. Ultimately the consumer will decide. If I were EZY and AGP, I would now be stressing their USP ie that EZY are the only carrier to operate low cost/competitively prices sun flights from SOU (I’m excluding BACF due their fare offering) which as all previously stated is a major plus. IMHO they are generally held as the attractive face of LCCs without the cynicism of RYR and I’ve always enjoyed flying with them. Their plans for S25 from SOU will now be critical, as stated there are many other Euro cities that could be potentially served on a ‘W’ pattern, so hopefully some managed growth within SOU’s capabilities will follow. One other observation - having flown from BOH several times in the past couple of years, they will need to up their landside operational game considerably to cope with this huge and sudden influx - the management of retail facilities has been appalling, and I can see gridlock from the A31 on days when there are 20 737MAX departures unless they are planning a major investment in local public transportation. And with the additional summer holiday traffic to the coast, it could take as long to get there as to LHR/LGW - certainly from mid-Hants anyway. It will be an interesting year!
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 12:37
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Holiday airlines flying to most of the more popular and lucrative sunspots like the Greek Islands, Canaries, Madeira, Turkey, Luxor, Red Sea, and Cyprus using the biggish planes like the A320N/737-800 and MAX-8 are not able to go anywhere near Southampton on those Routes for obvious reasons of the SOU Runway and operating limitations.

To say that the airlines are not playing ball, is frankly not their fault surely?
Jet2 nor TUI have A320's in their fleets to be able to even attempt to plan to operate from SOU on some of those routes.
Easyjet do, but at this time they do not seem willing to make SOU a UK base, and their package holidays brand are nowhere near upthere with Jet2 or TUI's sales reputation and organisation.

Sadly we no longer have 737-300/400 or 700 series on tap, nor the venerable 757 - all of which could usually lift off a full load from SOU for the likes of Madeira or Tenerife.

Even SEN Southend had limitations on payloads but did once offer Corfu and the Canaries.

So for SOU it is what it is...so unless they can in time, overcome the Runway and Obstacle clearance limitations I cannot foresee much changing unless Easyjet really does commit at SOU to be a viable base.
There is no one else right now.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 12:43
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Originally Posted by vectisman
As usual this thread is full of negativity. I am beginning to think some of you guys actually wet your pants with excitement when the news is not so good.
I think you may have a point. Since late 2020 there has been over 3000 posts on this thread compared to fewer than 700 in the same period on the Bournemouth thread.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 12:47
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Originally Posted by rog747
Holiday airlines flying to most of the more popular and lucrative sunspots like the Greek Islands, Canaries, Madeira, Turkey, Luxor, Red Sea, and Cyprus using the biggish planes like the A320N/737-800 and MAX-8 are not able to go anywhere near Southampton on those Routes for obvious reasons of the SOU Runway and operating limitations.

To say that the airlines are not playing ball, is frankly not their fault surely?
Jet2 nor TUI have A320's in their fleets to be able to even attempt to plan to operate from SOU on some of those routes.
Easyjet do, but at this time they do not seem willing to make SOU a UK base, and their package holidays brand are nowhere near upthere with Jet2 or TUI's sales reputation and organisation.

Sadly we no longer have 737-300/400 or 700 series on tap, nor the venerable 757 - all of which could usually lift off a full load from SOU for the likes of Madeira or Tenerife.

Even SEN Southend had limitations on payloads but did once offer Corfu and the Canaries.

So for SOU it is what it is...so unless they can in time, overcome the Runway and Obstacle clearance limitations I cannot foresee much changing unless Easyjet really does commit at SOU to be a viable base.
There is no one else right now.
That's it in a nutshell, not the best of situations for SOU, can the airport sustain losses year in year out?
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 13:14
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I love it that this thread on some days has more movements than the airport itself

Constantly reading unfounded speculation, rumour, dreamland wishful thinking and then when nothing happens the outpouring of negativity. It's all pretty much self induced!

BOH simply has a far superior infrastructure and it's likely to get better whilst SOU has very little room for any serious and worthwhile expansion to it's. Location, Location, Location !
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 13:18
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Highly likely that Jet2 will expand at BOH beyond 2 aircraft. Their BRS base was launched with 3 aircraft and is now 8. Their BHX base was launched with 4 aircraft and is now 14. All their other bases were launched with a fleet that is now bigger than it was in the initial year of operation.

However despite that, easyJet continued to open a base at BHX with 3 aircraft. It is probable that they will do the same at SOU. They have a considerable number of slots at LGW that they need to hand back in 2025. This frees up aircraft that could be deployed to SOU.

On the other hand, their CEO strangely explained just a few days ago that he was keen to get an ‘in’ at Heathrow which would be detrimental to any U2 SOU operation being just 60 minutes drive up the road.

AGS have an opportunity to help easyJet make the right call as it seems they are open to different possibilities, including not shying away from competition.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 13:33
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I'm going to remain (insanely) positive in that I still have a hunch that EZY will open a small two-aircraft base at SOU in the relatively near future.

If one looks at the provisional timetable shown for Jet2 at Bournemouth next year, if one excludes the fact that some of the destinations are beyond the reliable range achievable from SOU, similar timings to those proposed by Jet2, offering 27 flights a week but to slightly shorter destinations would work even within Southampton's restricted opening hours, ie, two crack of dawn departures and two early afternoon departures. With a few additional flights/routes flown from other EZY bases a comprehensive little network of leisure/city-break/friends-and-family and even occasional business routes could be established and would secure EasyJet's position on the South Coast, with a clear product differential - a slightly posher airline at a slightly posher airport, not much of a difference I know, but enough to have something to latch onto to provide a bit of a USP.

I'm not connected even remotely with the aviation industry, I'm purely a 'local' who has a passing interest in aviation and who uses the local airport when I can. 😊
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 14:24
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Sounds like Rigby plan to pour money into BOH in order to increase terminal capacity in expectation for 2mppa. Once Bournemouth can prove itself it quite possibly will be the defacto gateway airport for the south coast.

The challenge for SOU is the business market hasn't been the same since Brexit and COVID-19, and the reduced operational hours and load restrictions make it a tougher decision.

SOU may have better road and rail connections vs BOH, but SOU's proximity to London i.e. not being convenient enough to be a 'London' airport and being too near and with too many constraints reduces its chance of being a busy regional e.g. BRS, LBA, puts it in a grey area.

I've said this before, but in the absence of one 'true' south coast airport, I think the best reality is for BOH and SOU to complement each other like Belfast's Aldergrove and City.

However, if the money gets spent on infrastructure at BOH, I can't see any reason why Easyjet wouldn't take a look at some routes that aren't currently offered by a LCC on the south coast.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 14:46
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Originally Posted by SotonFlightpath
I'm not connected even remotely with the aviation industry, I'm purely a 'local' who has a passing interest in aviation and who uses the local airport when I can. 😊
I am also a local. If you were AGS and took a cold, hard look at your balance sheet and then considered how much money you could make from selling the land (a 'prime' location for an Amazon fulfilment centre or similar) you would have to be tempted. At least that would provide some real jobs for the local economy - 'jam today' and not the 'jam tomorrow' jobs as imagined by Paul Holmes MP.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 15:38
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I think Rustythumb's assessment is probably one of the most realistic postings I have seen on this thread for quite a while. I would tend to agree with him that an Orange base at BOH might well be a strong possibility at some point in the future, especially if there us a strong committment to invest in expansion of the terminal facilities. Limited opening hours and a short runway at SOU do not fit in with the longer legs that LC have now begun to operate.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 16:20
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I see the feeding frenzy has appeared on this thread over the Jet2 announcement. Let’s not forget SOU is still going to reach around 1m pax this year with 8 airline partners and many regionals would be delighted with that. It’s damn obvious that the owners will want more and for the airport to make more money (after all a large investment has just been completed) but this will not happen overnight. I firmly believe easyjet will add further routes in the near future and hopefully a new airline or two will also appear so to speculate as to its future in such a negative manner is foolish at best. SOU will never compete with BOU on holiday business but it can add value to the south coast with a mixture of solid profitable business/ leisure routes and this is what I see continuing to happen, just not at the pace some posters would like. It will only take the relatively small growth mentioned above to hit break even (1.2m) and the airport quickly becomes a viable business again. Some patience and perspective is required as both south coast airports have different USP ‘s and are playing to their strengths/weaknesses.

Last edited by stewyb; 27th Mar 2024 at 16:58.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 16:56
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Originally Posted by stewyb
I see the feeding frenzy has appeared on this thread over the Jet2 announcement. Let’s not forget SOU is still going to reach around 1m pax this year and many regionals would be delighted with that.
Isn't the issue that SOU cannot make money at 1M pax per year? So it's structural / financial issue as well. There was a time when they could and did make money at a similar or lower throughput? But as the days of high cost suited and booted regionals vanish from memory, they need high volume leisure to get them back into the black and put the business on a stable footing? So with the current cost base and commitments, if they don't make that volume, there's no path to profitability, and that high volume leisure market now has three strong competitors down the road at BOH. So in effect, it's easyJet or bust, and I would suspect easyJet are holding out until they get an outstanding deal to make it worth their while, as SOU needs EZY way more than EZY needs SOU? Tough gig.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 17:07
  #3038 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot
Isn't the issue that SOU cannot make money at 1M pax per year? So it's structural / financial issue as well. There was a time when they could and did make money at a similar or lower throughput? But as the days of high cost suited and booted regionals vanish from memory, they need high volume leisure to get them back into the black and put the business on a stable footing? So with the current cost base and commitments, if they don't make that volume, there's no path to profitability, and that high volume leisure market now has three strong competitors down the road at BOH. So in effect, it's easyJet or bust, and I would suspect easyJet are holding out until they get an outstanding deal to make it worth their while, as SOU needs EZY way more than EZY needs SOU? Tough gig.
Correct and I have clearly highlighted the need for 1.2m p/a sooner rather than later to positively affect financials. We don’t know what the airport and its owners are working on to get to this initial figure so guess it’s a wait and see . Yes, LCC options have reduced although not sure Jet2 etc were ever a reality for the airport and its now for AGS to find a suitable solution because clearly the clock is ticking

Last edited by stewyb; 27th Mar 2024 at 18:07.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 18:57
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Where has this 1.2m figure for profitability come from?
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 19:02
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Originally Posted by LTNman
Where has this 1.2m figure for profitability come from?
Been documented on numerous occasions by the airports representatives in business plans/council meetings
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