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Southampton-3

Old 27th Mar 2024, 19:05
  #3041 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LTNman
Where has this 1.2m figure for profitability come from?
The airport.

"John Lauwerys asked if, as per the evidence submitted through the planning stage for the runway extension, the airport would continue to run at a loss until passenger numbers reached 1.2 million. The Head of Planning and Development for AGS Airports Ltd confirmed this continued to be the case."
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 19:34
  #3042 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting set of latest published accounts that predate the runway extension. Debt facilities with an outstanding balance of £757m are due to be paid in full on 18th June but there are material uncertainties over refinancing with a significant doubt about the companies ability to continue as a going concern.

Later in the accounts the directors state they are optimistic about refinancing.

Last edited by LTNman; 27th Mar 2024 at 21:12.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 22:00
  #3043 (permalink)  
 
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One thing that really matters on shorter holiday routes that seems to have been totally overlooked is the shorter summer seasons. while the Canaries, Eastern Med and Egypt are virtually year round, any shorter French / Spanish leisure routes are limited from April till October which would make a year round base all the more difficult with its shorter runway and opening hours. SOU has always been a traditional "regional" base for as long as I can remember and that's where the airport's transport links work so well. If they allow their "traditional" carriers, Loganair, Eastern, Blue Islands, Aurigny, KLM, Aer Lingus etc to be walked all over by Easyjet, then that must surely be a huge risk for the airport to take. It's one thing the airport wishing to expand but they must do it very sympathetically to their existing carriers unless they are happy to loose them. After all, most offer double daily services to other business centres. The current status quo between BOH and SOU has always existed since the days of the Dan Air Link City services out of BOH. Since then it's always been a split market, holidays from BOH, Business form SOU. My view is that this difference will always remain and hence both airports will continue to do what they do best on the South Coast. Two airports serving very different markets. SOU is the London City / Belfast City Airport whilst BOH is the holiday hub. That's not to say that SOU won't do short hops to warmer climes as they already do. Look at the BA flights on the Embraer 190s over the last couple of summers which has worked perfectly for the LCY fleet on W patterns. I don't see that changing massively in the future.
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Old 27th Mar 2024, 23:14
  #3044 (permalink)  
 
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Agree with stewyb and the latest threads - let Bournemouth have their ‘day in the sun’ (pun intended!) but it’s not all about the sun routes. Per my last note EZY’s key USP is that it’s the only LCC in SOU, and the generally favored one at that. Their announcement last Spring to fly domestically from SOU would seem to show they see potential from here away from the sun routes as well - so, within their other network commitments there’s no reason they couldn’t look at shorter hops to eg PAR, AMS, NCE or central/Eastern Europe as well as a few more Med schedules in the future. They wouldn’t need to move to BOH to do that & could operate such a network more easily avoiding the night curfew at SOU. Most people I speak to still prefer SOU over BOH due to the far easier accessibility, and BOH will have to have some pretty radical ideas to avoid gridlock around the airport at certain times in S25 with a local council that’s broke alongside. And that means zero prospect of anything other than courtesy buses down winding country lanes. There’s plenty of demand for regional routes from SOU if they’re competitively priced - KLM are shortly going to 3 a day & could easily take say a 3 x weekly additional service from EZY as many KLM pax are transfer. The PAR service desperately needs a decent reliable carrier & SOU will always sit at the centre of a bigger catchment area for this traffic. If AGS run out of ideas then a sale to a more creative owner wouldn’t be the worst scenario, and there’s still the Solent Freeport element for the longer term which will add to the inward investment opportunities the airport brings.
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 10:06
  #3045 (permalink)  
 
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There is a lot of talk here of all the disadvantages at SOU and why that means the airport cannot be the success that many hope for. IMO focusing on the negatives will get you precisely nowhere.

Look at LCY. How long a list of disadvantages do you need? Runway, obstacles, crosswinds, often visibility issues when there is little wind, special training, limited aircraft, limited operational hours, no certainty of future political support, you could go on and on. It has of course one huge advantage and that is why airlines find a way of operating from there despite everything.

OK the knockers will scoff. SOU is hardly LCY
they will cry out and that is true but you build on what you have going for you and it not the case that the airport is without its own advantages.
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 10:19
  #3046 (permalink)  
 
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Problem on this thread is that a few voiciferous supporters of SOH assumed from the outset that a few extra metres of tarmac would bring airlines flooding to the airport. Their expectations were, IMHO, unrealistic. Amongst the many words posted here since Jet2 announced their BOH base, there have been some posts that set out what SOH can really anticipate in the future, while the expectations of others is clearly 'pie in the sky'.
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 10:43
  #3047 (permalink)  
 
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DC3 Dave, Both LCY and SEN have London on their doorstep and London in their name. It serves not only the 9m residents but also the countless inbound business travellers (LCY) and leisure traffic. No marketing campaign will ever be able to position SOU as an alternative to the London area and certainly not to people coming in from overseas.

SOU is here to serve Southampton & the immediate region. Does it have a big enough wealthy catchment to emulate LCY?
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 10:47
  #3048 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by shamrock7seal
DC3 Dave, Both LCY and SEN have London on their doorstep and London in their name. It serves not only the 9m residents but also the countless inbound business travellers (LCY) and leisure traffic. No marketing campaign will ever be able to position SOU as an alternative to the London area and certainly not to people coming in from overseas.

SOU is here to serve Southampton & the immediate region. Does it have a big enough wealthy catchment to emulate LCY?
Rubbish, it’s here to serve a much wider catchment which covers 3.5m population within 60 minutes of the airport and is one of the wealthiest areas in the U.K.
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 10:50
  #3049 (permalink)  
 
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3.5m perhaps for a low cost carrier yes but for a regional carrier no the catchment will be much more concentrated
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 11:12
  #3050 (permalink)  
 
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Rubbish, it’s here to serve a much wider catchment which covers 3.5m population within 60 minutes of the airport and is one of the wealthiest areas in the U.K.
Similar comments are often made on this thread, but then aren't reflected in the flights available. SOU has a long list of routes that have been tried and dropped.
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 11:34
  #3051 (permalink)  
 
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EZ looking to refocus if looking at LHR into a more premium product which I genuinely think there is a market for., LHR proximity to SOU isnt helpful. The question is, has the last year of EZ been about toe dipping or managing current excess capacity best? I’m thinking of their brief touch down in BOH in the not so distant past. Was never about permanence. Ryanair are untouchable as the discount airline, Jet2 basically are blanket covering the package holiday market and will only get bigger, so what’s left? The return of city breaks and regional flying ? It’s a tough market, trains are greener. I hope who ever manages SOU manage to find the answer, the airport is compact and easy to access, it’s really more bus station than international airport, it needs a purpose of existence beyond being a non essential option for regional travel. BOH have realised bucket and spade maximises its potential at the same time as the U.K. has returned to package holidays. My fingers are crossed someone has an answer in the current management.
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 11:57
  #3052 (permalink)  
 
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Odd! easyJet Geneva Southampton lands at Southampton......about 5 minutes later easyJet Geneva Bournemouth lands Gatwick (diversion)??? Bit windy at Bournemouth.......but why not Southampton???
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 11:59
  #3053 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 055166k
Odd! easyJet Geneva Southampton lands at Southampton......about 5 minutes later easyJet Geneva Bournemouth lands Gatwick (diversion)??? Bit windy at Bournemouth.......but why not Southampton???
Could be due to LGW being a crew base? If that’s the case surprised they didn’t use BRS; although with them not attempting a landing at BOH, it could be medical related?
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 12:01
  #3054 (permalink)  
 
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The strong winds are coming from a southerly direction today so at SOU the runway will be pointing pretty much into wind whereas at BOH there will be strong crosswind.
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 12:06
  #3055 (permalink)  
 
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METAR for 11:20 shows wind at BOH 180 degrees 19 kts gusting 46kts. Almost straight across runway 26.
SOU at 11:20 160 degrees 12 kts gusting 23 kts. Much less windy and little crosswind on runway 20.

I'm sure the wind at BOH was the cause of the diversion. Why it diverted to LGW and not SOU is another question.
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 12:30
  #3056 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks to all.......in fact the same airframe reg has just filed Gatwick Bournemouth.
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 15:33
  #3057 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VLCfkight
Problem on this thread is that a few voiciferous supporters of SOH assumed from the outset that a few extra metres of tarmac would bring airlines flooding to the airport. Their expectations were, IMHO, unrealistic. Amongst the many words posted here since Jet2 announced their BOH base, there have been some posts that set out what SOH can really anticipate in the future, while the expectations of others is clearly 'pie in the sky'.
How very true. You could take this statement about Southampton & apply it to Guernsey - where a vociferous “extend the runway” crowd expect “boom time” if the airport becomes able to support unrestricted use of 737s & 320s. This would be to ignore the fact that Guernsey’s population is 65,000. Quite considerably less than the hinterland of Southampton ! Sorry for drifting away from the topic of Soton; but its situation has some relevance elsewhere.
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 16:50
  #3058 (permalink)  
 
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The longer the runway at Southampton, the more pointless it becomes as it puts it in direct conflict with Heathrow. The height at which aircraft can approach Southampton is even restricted as a result of its unfortunate geography. In most countries a one hour drive up the road is considered acceptable drive time to a local airport. Heathrow is Southampton's de facto local airport. The City of Southampton itself must benefit from the proximity of Heathrow, just look at the cruise port and the accessibility from London and how it is thriving. This is nor mere coincidence. As long as Heathrow remains up the road, Southampton will be capped. Southampton's sweet spot is exactly as other posters have intimated - a small regional high frequency affluent type airport. Like London City, Like Belfast City. It is not a Luton or a Bristol and never will be. I would argue the airport would make more money by focusing on this strategy instead of the low cost airlines which don't pay airports anything!!
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Old 28th Mar 2024, 19:36
  #3059 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by shamrock7seal
SOU is here to serve Southampton & the immediate region. Does it have a big enough wealthy catchment to emulate LCY?
SOU could also benefit from Channel Islanders using the airport to connect onwards - not everyone wants to use London airports...
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Old 29th Mar 2024, 07:35
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Why don't they just tarmac SOU over and use it for long term parking for the ever increasingly busy BOH?
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