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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 15th Oct 2020, 17:40
  #1921 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post
Germany now designates the English Midlands as a risk area
dj6
It has been that way since last week, along with the NE/NW UK. I am stuck in Yorkshire home with an office in Munich, so not helpful, though given good IT it does not matter so much in the short term. Currently in West London on a project, and the talk this afternoon was all of lockdown down here as well. We have been in a special measures for 7 weeks in West Yorkshire with no visitors inside houses or gardens, though I was allowed to travel back and forth to Germany which were curtailed the other week.
Cheers
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Old 15th Oct 2020, 20:14
  #1922 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by southside bobby View Post
Italy now added to THE list...
Isolating required for returning passengers from 4am 18th October.

Wales heading for likely "circuit-breaker" lockdown.
Was looking at flights for 5 day break in Sicily at half term........................... buggered that right up I did.
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Old 15th Oct 2020, 21:56
  #1923 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
Was looking at flights for 5 day break in Sicily at half term........................... buggered that right up I did.
I dare not even book a half term holiday in England now let alone abroad after Wales scuppered my planned jaunt there. I guess there is still Gibraltar which is still open. My last attempt to get there in May resulted in another lost holiday this year.

Last edited by LTNman; 16th Oct 2020 at 08:07.
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 10:00
  #1924 (permalink)  
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The longer this goes on the more issues in relation to aviation will become evident. A pilot friend indicated that they has not flown since last April when he was laid off, they get by but doesn't have the luxury of getting flight time in.

Concern is that IF aviation resumes next year there will be a lot of refresher training required before getting back in the air again. Observation was that there will potentially be thousands of others and turning on all the resource again is going to take time with many airlines worried that another wave stops flying before it starts.

If aviation stays pretty much grounded in 2021/2022 then unlikely they will ever have another commercial pilots job.

In the background of course there are the tech companies pushing unmanned flying and while figured 10 years away and likely retired when it becomes a permanent fixture the downturn is adding the impetus to get it running sooner.
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 10:08
  #1925 (permalink)  
 
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There are going to be a lot of very rusty pilots out there under enormous financial and personal stress. There will be incidents.
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 10:14
  #1926 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
I dare not even book a half term holiday in England now let alone abroad after Wales scuppered my planned jaunt there. I guess there is still Gibraltar which is still open. My last attempt to get there in May resulted in another lost holiday this year.
Hopefully you wont get diverted to Malaga on arrival, or from there on your trip home!
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 13:04
  #1927 (permalink)  
 
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When I get back to flying, I will fly to destinations served by Qatar Airways. Their fleet have been very active, including many pax aircraft flying cargo. As I type this there are over 50 active QTR flights around the globe.
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Old 18th Oct 2020, 21:47
  #1928 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Pistonprop View Post
When I get back to flying, I will fly to destinations served by Qatar Airways. Their fleet have been very active, including many pax aircraft flying cargo. As I type this there are over 50 active QTR flights around the globe.
Take this personally....................... hope to bloody hell it's soon. Not so that you are not on here. But just it will be another sign that some kind of normality is returned.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 05:36
  #1929 (permalink)  
 
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Meanwhile, the country that caused this nightmare has gone back to a growth rate of 4.9%. Their determination to get crack down on this virus by suppressing it with extreme measures has worked helped by a compliant people who do what they are told.

Meanwhile back in Europe we have fudge, confusion and a lack of compliance with the laws that are meant to curb the virus.

China's economy continues to bounce back from virus slump https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54594877

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Old 19th Oct 2020, 06:17
  #1930 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
The longer this goes on the more issues in relation to aviation will become evident. A pilot friend indicated that they has not flown since last April when he was laid off, they get by but doesn't have the luxury of getting flight time in.

Concern is that IF aviation resumes next year there will be a lot of refresher training required before getting back in the air again. Observation was that there will potentially be thousands of others and turning on all the resource again is going to take time with many airlines worried that another wave stops flying before it starts.

If aviation stays pretty much grounded in 2021/2022 then unlikely they will ever have another commercial pilots job.

In the background of course there are the tech companies pushing unmanned flying and while figured 10 years away and likely retired when it becomes a permanent fixture the downturn is adding the impetus to get it running sooner.
So far some companies are trying to position themselves for an upturn by at least keeping some pilots on the books and flying to a limited extent. It's not just the aforementioned Qatar, a quick look at the likes of flight radar shows some airlines, including some of the European majors, have been running a significant number of freighter services (using their normal passenger hulls) on Long Haul routes throughout the pandemic, and flying hours, exposure to the route network and the SOPS aren't dependent on whether there are passengers on board or not..

As for all this accelerated the introduction of unmanned airliners - Once aviation comes out of the doldrums (whenever that is..after wave "x"?) there will be hundreds if not thousands of non-AI ready airliners currently parked up that will need flying and there will be thousands of pilots out there willing to jump into seats for not a lot....Yes, retraining those who haven't flown at all could be a choke point for some airlines but I don't foresee that accelerating the march of the machines...the economics IMHO won't add up..
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 07:40
  #1931 (permalink)  
 
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#1929...
A new virus from wherever add our own unfocused Prime Minister...What could possibly go wrong!
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 10:11
  #1932 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by southside bobby View Post
#1929...
A new virus from wherever add our own unfocused Prime Minister...What could possibly go wrong!
Yes the country's big mistake was not electing the Corbyn and Dianne Abbott show.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 10:44
  #1933 (permalink)  
 
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Yes but the Conservative & Unionist Party could have elected a less mendacious & more trustworthy candidate...many Tories knew he was the wrong man even Pre virus but desired to ride his coat tails perhaps & now look where we are.

Last edited by southside bobby; 19th Oct 2020 at 10:45. Reason: missed word
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 12:14
  #1934 (permalink)  
 
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Yes but the Conservative & Unionist Party could have elected a less mendacious & more trustworthy candidate...many Tories knew he was the wrong man even Pre virus but desired to ride his coat tails perhaps & now look where we are.
He wasn't the wrong man. The Conservatives chose a leader who offered sufficient public appeal to win a general election at a time when their stock with the electorate was in the doldrums. Johnson was the only candidate who ticked that box, and he delivered comprehensively, with a resounding 80-seat majority which astounded many naysayers. Mission accomplished. Backers vindicated.

The onset of COVID-19 presented universal challenges. Few incumbent leaders globally enjoy approval from their voters in dealing with this poisoned chalice. Afew outliers such as Jessica Ardern in NZ have benefitted from fortunate geography, but the resident population still has little immunity when the country is eventually forced to re-open again. Here in the UK, leaders of opposing parties have broadly followed the same script with regard to medical measures: those recommended by the familiar experts who have become household names - not politicians. Divergence from backing the medical advice in its entirety is a very recent development, and some would argue that Starmer's recent conversion to backing another hard lockdown is motivated by politically-driven opportunism. Where parties have differed in outlook from the early stages is on the matter of economic response. As regulars on this forum are aware, the total absence of sector-specific support for aviation from the lamentable Greta Sunak has been a travesty.

Those who agitate for the removal of Johnson as PM should pause to consider who his replacement is likely to be. Greta Sunak would be favourite ... I'll stick with Johnson, thanks.

But Johnson's MO has always been to act as 'Chairman of the Board', delegating the real work to ministers reporting to him. Under Johnson's administration, ministers enjoy genuine autonomy to run their departments as they see fit. But this is a mixed blessing: some departments have performed exceptionally well, others not so much. And we have seen conflicts and rivalries, such as that waged between Patel and Shapps during the universal quarantine versus travel corridors debate. It is in instances such as this that Johnson could have intervened to direct policy, but of course there was the small matter of his own Covid infection at that time.

But whilst it is easy to snipe at government failings (in the UK and elsewhere) with the benefit of hindsight, let us also consider what has been done well. UK C-19 Deaths are running at around 10% of levels forecast by Professor Ferguson at the outset - that is an amazing positive which we should not lightly dismiss. We were told we would run out of ventilators ... didn't happen. Not enough PPE ... well, actually the UK did really well on this in reality with opportunist sniping derived from motivated opposition groups capitalising on shortfalls at the margins. And don't forget the scandal surrounding the 'Panorama' documentary which stirred the pot on this subject, later found to have been infiltrated by a hard left group. We were going to run out of hospital beds ... well, we didn't (so far), and just weeks after marvelling at the Chinese delivering new hospitals in Wuhan in record time, our government delivered the Nightingale hospitals ... a momentous achievement.

Much of the credit is due to the widely-maligned Health Secretary, Matt Hancock. But only abuse comes his way. Who would want his job during a pandemic? It is all to easy for 'Captain Hindsight' and co to snipe, but remember that party leaders including Starmer himself were committed to following expert advice from exactly the same officials as Johnson has done ... the medical response was not going to be wildly different under Labour.

For me, the lament is that Greta Sunak is getting a free pass from the media despite the disgraceful neglect he has shown towards the aviation industry. Yet Matt Hancock - who really has done rather well in his role - is depicted as a clown and subjected to constant media abuse. Some mistakes, yes, but he has done alot more right than wrong under unprecedented circumstances. Shapps has actually fought the industry's corner in reality, though the Transport Secretary was always doomed to lose out to Priti-Dim Patel's blanket quarantine-lust at the Home Office. The Home Office is the real roadblock preventing the introduction of sensible virus detection measures at immigration in our airports. Other high-profile ministers such as Gove, Raab and Truss have been more involved with the Brexit brief rather than with C-19. Your approval / disappoval of their performance will likely tally with your personal views on Brexit itself. But from the perspective of Brexiteers who voted for them, they are fulfilling their roles well.

So if you really want Johnson replaced, keep in mind who the new incumbent PM might be ... because with an 80-seat majority it is likely to be a Conservative politician. Greta Sunak would be hot favourite ... and he is a climate zealot who has demonstrated a religious resolve to utterly decimate aviation in the UK. This sector - the worst-hit across the entire economy - has received zero help at all beyond that made available to employers generally. Our companies - if lucky - receive repayable loans on commercial terms. No rates relief for deserted UK airports. Competitors in other jurisdictions have been bailed out to the tune of billions. Sunak is a one-man curse on aviation in the UK. Don't lightly wish him into Number 10 if you value this industry at any level.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 12:33
  #1935 (permalink)  
 
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OzzyOzBorn

Without this drifting into a politics discussion, the opposition run by Corbyn was so unelectable that the Tories could probably have put up Rees-Mogg and won last December.

Sadly the government is rather keener on saving the livelihoods of a few fishermen than the countless thousands employed in the aviation and travel sectors.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 12:38
  #1936 (permalink)  
 
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History provided us with Johnson & as most agree is NOW the wrong man in the wrong place.

Aviation will not recover until the nation`s health is restored.

The PM & his Cabinet have been woeful in marshalling effective action to protect the populous & therefore the economy.

How things change in less than a year Jeremy Hunt now looks a world class Statesman in comparison.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 13:23
  #1937 (permalink)  
 
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Ozzy doing a fine job there cheerleading for our dear leader. Sadly glossing over a few minor details.

Johnson has an 80 seat majority indeed, problem is that only 44% of the electorate voted for him and his party. 56% didnít. So the wants of a minority are riding roughshod over a sizeable majority. But that is our electoral system unfortunately.

On popularity, again it is massively overstated. People might be surprised to know Johnsonís Tories picked up 330k new voters compared to May. Thatís only narrowly more than the Greens (310k) but massively trailing the Lib Dems who were popularly labelled failures but gained 1.32 MILLION extra voters. Again, that is our electoral system - nearly 12% of the votes for Lib Dems but 1.7% of the MPs.

Johnson in objective and aggregated polls trails in approval ratings - more are unhappy wihth him than are happy. This is long-running.

Sadly none of this helps out Covid response and the decimation of aviation.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 13:25
  #1938 (permalink)  
 
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The PM & his Cabinet have been woeful in marshalling effective action to protect the populous & therefore the economy.
It is so easy to snipe from one's armchair with the benefit of hindsight. Ministers had to make tough calls under extreme pressure with very limited scientific data to go on. They got some things wrong, but alot right. And the upshot is C-19 deaths running at 10% of that forecast under the Ferguson model. Take a look at the performance of comparable nations around the world, some doing better, some worse - but the UK is doing as well as can be expected from a medical perspective given our circumstances as a highly-diverse society and global crossroads.

I agree that the economic response could have been handled better - particularly with respect to aviation. But that is down to Sunak. Who is the favourite by far to replace Johnson in the event of a leadership contest.

So, given that there is no election due for nearly four years with a solid Conservative majority in place, I would ask you who you would propose that the party leader (PM) should be? Do you really want Sunak? Who else has a shout?

I wouldn't mind Sajid Javid, myself - he was clearly sensible and pro-aviation. But I've got about as much chance of landing the job as him!

Last edited by OzzyOzBorn; 19th Oct 2020 at 13:47.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 13:46
  #1939 (permalink)  
 
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Ozzy doing a fine job there cheerleading for our dear leader. Sadly glossing over a few minor details.
Hardly cheerleading. Did you not read my assessments of Sunak and Patel? I'd say I've delivered praise where it is due and criticism where it is well-deserved.

But let us be quite clear that ALL your posts come from the perspective of a hard-left activist and ardent remainer. That is fair enough, but let all be clear that it is so. You never miss an opportunity to criticise Conservative government on any grounds.

The Lib Dems benefited from increased support from hardline Remainers, having nailed their colours to betraying the democratic process which delivered the referendum verdict. Unfortunately, they now face a long road back in persuading the traditional electorate that they do not in fact despise democracy and can credibly lay claim to once again respecting the ballot box. Ed Davey (very anti-aviation, BTW) has a job on there to rebuild credibility.

So if you are another who wants Johnson deposed, who would be your nomination as next Conservative leader / PM for the next four years (because there isn't a general election due)? Can we at least agree that Sunak has been a total disaster for aviation? With that in mind, who would be a credible replacement for Johnson? Maybe a case of better the devil you know ...
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 14:37
  #1940 (permalink)  
 
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The answer was simple, just follow what New Zealand and Australia did and are still doing right from the start. Next to no foreign travel. Any countryman that does manage to get back into the country are forced into isolation hotels at their expense for 14 days. I am sure that would go down well on this thread where many still demand a foreign holiday and see it as their right.
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