Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

[racedo]

Originally Posted by racedo

One's personal hygiene not an issue, the monthly bath still happens, socks changed weekly , it is the other buggers.

A serious point though is who tests and cerifies all the Alcohol gels ?

https://www.independent.ie/irish-new...-39663467.html

Guess that one in answered and appears dodgy santiser is out there ....................... in this case from Turkey.

[inOban]

Originally Posted by racedo

All virus can be serious to the people getting them. Majority of people infcted with this so far are recovering.

This Virus is a lot less serious than 1918 Flu pandemic, the population of the World was 1.8 billion, 500 million caught it and between 50-100 million died. A death rate of 10-20% and close to 30% of the population being infected. On a similar level today it would see 2.2 billion infected with between 220 - 530 million people dying.

1968 Flu pandemic killed between 1-4 million people on a population of 3.6 billlion.

There is a great deal of dispute about the death rate - maybe as low as 17 million - and the actual cause of death which may well have been secondary bacterial infections in the vast majority of cases. You simply cannot compare the death rate among overcrowded malnourished people in 1918 with 2020.

[racedo]

Originally Posted by inOban

There is a great deal of dispute about the death rate - maybe as low as 17 million - and the actual cause of death which may well have been secondary bacterial infections in the vast majority of cases. You simply cannot compare the death rate among overcrowded malnourished people in 1918 with 2020.

Yes you can but it doesn't suit the agenda of those pushing "worst pandemic ever" story. Many of the UK cases have already been flagged as having had significant underlying conditions meaning Covid was present but not necessarily cause of death but they tested positive. If that is case with UK then guaranteed it is similar in other countries.

On sheer numbers alone it is not even close.

[SWBKCB]

Originally Posted by racedo

Yes you can but it doesn't suit the agenda of those pushing "worst pandemic ever" story. Many of the UK cases have already been flagged as having had significant underlying conditions meaning Covid was present but not necessarily cause of death but they tested positive. If that is case with UK then guaranteed it is similar in other countries.

On sheer numbers alone it is not even close.

Is anybody pushing "worst pandemic ever" stories? I haven't see any.

I'd hope we are better at dealing at these sort of things than 100 years ago (and how accurate was the record keeping then?)

[southside bobby]

ACI Europe warning of the "collapse of significant parts of the air transport system" with 193 of the continents airports facing insolvency in the coming months if passenger traffic does not start to recover by year end.

[davidjohnson6]

I'd want to see some pretty good data backing up the claims of ACI Europe if they are not to be regarded as being utterly alarmist...

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by davidjohnson6

I'd want to see some pretty good data backing up the claims of ACI Europe if they are not to be regarded as being utterly alarmist...

The word "scaremongering" comes to mind. I expect some governments and local authorities will fall for it. That's not to belittle the situation airports find themselves in at the moment, but the upshot could be that for a number of airport businesses that are commercially marginal covid-19 may just hasten the inevitable.

[DaveReidUK]

ACI represents over 500 European airports. I wouldn't be at all surprised if 40% of those were looking insolvency in the eye.

[racedo]

Originally Posted by DaveReidUK

ACI represents over 500 European airports. I wouldn't be at all surprised if 40% of those were looking insolvency in the eye.

Is that all I would say. Income streams are dead, costs still being incurred and no likelihood of a recovery in the short term. Many airports are Zombie airports at the moment requiring Govt or Local Authority funding to even turn on their lights.

[davidjohnson6]

There is talk of Grant Shapps changing the criteria for requiring quarantine on arrival in England from 20 cases per 100,000 over 7 days to 100 cases instead - ie 5 fold increase

I have no idea if this will happen or not, but looking at data in Europe, I can't see anywhere that will suddenly become available for unrestricted travel which is not already available - ie we still get just Canaries, Gibraltar, Greece, and Sweden. Everywhere else either has over 100 cases, or has quarantine for arrivals to/from England or requires proof of a recent negative test. Even Greece has a quaratine/testing requirement on quasi-random pax arriving by air

Can anybody else identify places that become available for unrestricted travel to/from England under this possible policy change ?

[ericsson16]

Originally Posted by davidjohnson6

There is talk of Grant Shapps changing the criteria for requiring quarantine on arrival in England from 20 cases per 100,000 over 7 days to 100 cases instead - ie 5 fold increase

I have no idea if this will happen or not, but looking at data in Europe, I can't see anywhere that will suddenly become available for unrestricted travel which is not already available - ie we still get just Canaries, Gibraltar, Greece, and Sweden. Everywhere else either has over 100 cases, or has quarantine for arrivals to/from England or requires proof of a recent negative test. Even Greece has a quaratine/testing requirement on quasi-random pax arriving by air

Can anybody else identify places that become available for unrestricted travel to/from England under this possible policy change ?

South Africa they are looking at I believe,and if you haven't flown in S.A. you haven't flown!

[Dannyboy39]

Originally Posted by ericsson16

South Africa they are looking at I believe,and if you haven't flown in S.A. you haven't flown!

Amen to this!

[Vokes55]

Originally Posted by davidjohnson6

There is talk of Grant Shapps changing the criteria for requiring quarantine on arrival in England from 20 cases per 100,000 over 7 days to 100 cases instead - ie 5 fold increase

I have no idea if this will happen or not, but looking at data in Europe, I can't see anywhere that will suddenly become available for unrestricted travel which is not already available - ie we still get just Canaries, Gibraltar, Greece, and Sweden. Everywhere else either has over 100 cases, or has quarantine for arrivals to/from England or requires proof of a recent negative test. Even Greece has a quaratine/testing requirement on quasi-random pax arriving by air

Can anybody else identify places that become available for unrestricted travel to/from England under this possible policy change ?

It would certainly open a lot of Winter sun destinations, many of which will throw their doors open for the tourism income, if they haven’t already. Places like the Dominican Republic (whose cases are now almost as low as the 20 threshold) and Mexico are already open more or less without restriction. Where did you hear about this, out of interest?

I’d be betting on Jamaica coming off the naughty list tomorrow.

[davidjohnson6]

I know some on here think he's a twit, but he's probably better connected off the record to people in Govt as a well-known journalist than many of us who read this forum...
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel...-b1347862.html

[Vokes55]

To be honest, taking Denmark off the red list was an indication that this is already happening, as it was around 57/100,000 last week.

Certainly a positive step if true (except to a few regular contributors to this thread, who will no doubt be aghast). In fact, continued restrictions in this country and a more sensible approach to quarantine regulations may lead to the spike in demand that the industry desperately needs.

I wonder how many larger families will be booking trips abroad just to be able to spend Christmas together.

[Dannyboy39]

Originally Posted by davidjohnson6

I know some on here think he's a twit, but he's probably better connected off the record to people in Govt as a well-known journalist than many of us who read this forum...
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel...-b1347862.html

Common sense has finally broken out. But I’d be mightily pissed off if I was one of the 20% of people who quarantined for 2 whole weeks from one of these marginal locations, for the government just to move the goalposts.

[davidjohnson6]

Cyprus and Lithuania go onto the naughty list. All countries already on the naughty list will remain there

[Charley B]

Gets more crazy as each week goes by..other countries must be laughing at us ....cannot be any worse than here in U.K. 🙄

[LTNman]

Any new cases brought into the UK will start a new Covid 19 infection source that can spread out of control. It was how we got infected in the first place. Even if Brits abroad did not mix with the locals they will be mixing with each other in bars etc. Germany was blaming the return of holidaymakers for its rise in cases.

[Dannyboy39]

Originally Posted by LTNman

Any new cases brought into the UK will start a new Covid 19 infection source that can spread out of control. It was how we got infected in the first place. Even if Brits abroad did not mix with the locals they will be mixing with each other in bars etc. Germany was blaming the return of holidaymakers for its rise in cases.

It doesn’t make a difference. The virus is already ingrained in the population.