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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 23rd May 2020, 13:45
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Update on travel to Spain, part of message from Prime Minister TV message today...

The prime minister encouraged Spaniards to start planning their vacations, and said that from July, foreign tourism would return to Spain ‘in safe conditions’

He also stressed that many museums and theaters would be reopening too under the next phases of deescalation. “We must begin to restart economic activity,” he continued. “Some of these sectors are hostelry and tourism, which have a fundamental role in the creation of employment. The moment has arrived. I’m announcing to you that there will be a tourist season this year and I invite all tourist establishments to start to prepare from today to restart their activity in a few days from now.”

The prime minister encouraged Spaniards to start planning their vacations, and said that from July, foreign tourism would return to Spain “in safe conditions.” He pointed to the fact that Spain usually receives more than 80 million foreign visitors a year. “From now, foreign tourists can plan their vacations in our country," he added.

“We will guarantee that tourists will not run any risks and they will not bring us any risks,” he continued. “There will be no opposing forces between health and business. Spanish tourism will now have two hallmarks: environmental sustainability and health safety,” he stated.


Last edited by ericlday; 23rd May 2020 at 14:05.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 15:07
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
How much would you bet on that? Would you book a holiday for July with the possibility of having to self isolate for 14 days on return?

The arguement for not having quarantine earlier is that the level of infection in the population was so high that the amount imported made little difference and the greater good was allowing people to repatriate. Once the general level of infection becomes low enough, the possibility of a 'second wave' due to imported infection becomes significant and so needs to be controlled.
What is the argument for quarantining travel from countries with less infections than the UK?
What is stopping the 'second wave' from being caused by domestic travel and public transport in the UK?
We have more new infections in the UK than Italy and Spain combined. So how is travel from Europe a higher risk than, say, the London underground?

To answer your question. I am not betting on it and I'm certainly not booking any July travel, but I am keeping an open mind to potential last minute openings.



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Old 23rd May 2020, 15:52
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Originally Posted by mike current
What is the argument for quarantining travel from countries with less infections than the UK?
What is stopping the 'second wave' from being caused by domestic travel and public transport in the UK?
We have more new infections in the UK than Italy and Spain combined. So how is travel from Europe a higher risk than, say, the London underground?

To answer your question. I am not betting on it and I'm certainly not booking any July travel, but I am keeping an open mind to potential last minute openings.
That question is one that any enquiring journalist might want to ask at the daily press conference. Sadly, there's a shortage of enquiring journalists!

A cynic might suggest that in putting in quarantine here, the government might avoid the risk that Spain, Greece etc would open up to inbound tourism from "safe" countries, but label the UK as not yet being safe. I don't see a new case tally stubbornly running at 2,500 per day as safe, compared with the likes of Spain, Portugal, Greece or much of central Europe.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 16:12
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Originally Posted by LTNman
IHindsight is always a wonderful thing
If it was only that I'd agree. Thing is we have some evidence now of what has and hasn't worked. The government decided to indoctrinate the population with a (literally) made-up 2m distancing rule against WHO guidance of 1m and the knowledge that most other countries opted to be 'on the safe side' specifying 1.5m. This is the fake science another poster referred to. Going for 2m in this country has upped the ante in the UK and has terrified the population in to thinking that somehow by walking past someone on the street you will get the virus... and probably die a death worse than ebola and cancer rolled into one. The nation is petrified because of this inept government's choices. The fact the UK choose 2m and other countries with much better outcomes choose 1.5m is evidence that it makes no difference. Are they going to change the 2m rule against the evidence? Are they ****. The trouble is even if they wanted to, they now can't because they created a rod for their own back. If they even suggested it, the self-righteous 'I'm saving the NHS' brigade will howl with terror. The government has painted itself into a corner. The 2m rule effectively makes whole sections of the economy redundant or unviable, in particular, aviation.
Boris thinks he won a landslide because people like him but he won by virtue of him being not quite as stupid as Jeremy Corbyn but surely even Corbyn couldn't have screwed up this badly.


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Old 23rd May 2020, 16:15
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Spain today (PM Sanchez) said the famous R rate that the UK go on about at their daily press briefings is now 0.2. I fail to understand why Spain would want tourists from the UK just yet, as the new cases are far too high and the dreaded R rate is about 0.9.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 16:19
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Originally Posted by ATNotts
That question is one that any enquiring journalist might want to ask at the daily press conference. Sadly, there's a shortage of enquiring journalists!

A cynic might suggest that in putting in quarantine here, the government might avoid the risk that Spain, Greece etc would open up to inbound tourism from "safe" countries, but label the UK as not yet being safe. I don't see a new case tally stubbornly running at 2,500 per day as safe, compared with the likes of Spain, Portugal, Greece or much of central Europe.
Agree with you there AT... where are the enquiring minds in journalism? Even the so-called good ones are only interested in using words to trick politicians in to saying silly things. What about questions like 'tell us what the scientific evidence was taking this decision or that decision' Instead we get lazy stuff like 'will you or won't you personally guarantee that absolutely everybody in the country will be 100% safe'.
Cases aren't going down here because we are testing way more people now. Look and you will find. The lazy way to get new cases down is to stop testing.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 16:28
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Originally Posted by Playamar2
Spain today (PM Sanchez) said the famous R rate that the UK go on about at their daily press briefings is now 0.2. I fail to understand why Spain would want tourists from the UK just yet, as the new cases are far too high and the dreaded R rate is about 0.9.
Update on new cases yesterday in Tenerife......1 with Nil Deaths
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Old 23rd May 2020, 16:59
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Originally Posted by FFMAN
If it was only that I'd agree. Thing is we have some evidence now of what has and hasn't worked. The government decided to indoctrinate the population with a (literally) made-up 2m distancing rule against WHO guidance of 1m and the knowledge that most other countries opted to be 'on the safe side' specifying 1.5m. This is the fake science another poster referred to. Going for 2m in this country has upped the ante in the UK and has terrified the population in to thinking that somehow by walking past someone on the street you will get the virus... and probably die a death worse than ebola and cancer rolled into one. The nation is petrified because of this inept government's choices. The fact the UK choose 2m and other countries with much better outcomes choose 1.5m is evidence that it makes no difference. Are they going to change the 2m rule against the evidence? Are they ****. The trouble is even if they wanted to, they now can't because they created a rod for their own back. If they even suggested it, the self-righteous 'I'm saving the NHS' brigade will howl with terror. The government has painted itself into a corner. The 2m rule effectively makes whole sections of the economy redundant or unviable, in particular, aviation.
Boris thinks he won a landslide because people like him but he won by virtue of him being not quite as stupid as Jeremy Corbyn but surely even Corbyn couldn't have screwed up this badly.
Fake science, the linked article below suggests not - there are even arguments for 4 or 6 metres, and that the combination of distance and duration are important.
And one leading scientist says that timing can really make a difference. "Spending two seconds one metre apart is as dangerous as spending one minute two metres apart," he says.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52522460






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Old 23rd May 2020, 17:38
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If anyone would like a proper academic analysis of the outbreak, can I suggest


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Old 23rd May 2020, 18:06
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The prime minister encouraged Spaniards to start planning their vacations, and said that from July, foreign tourism would return to Spain “in safe conditions.”
Does that mean then that airside coaches will be banned where they cram 240 people into 2 or 3 coaches and that all aircraft will now park on terminal stands?
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Old 23rd May 2020, 18:33
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Originally Posted by LTNman
Does that mean then that airside coaches will be banned where they cram 240 people into 2 or 3 coaches and that all aircraft will now park on terminal stands?
Don't be silly LTNman! That is where the crucial phrase "where reasonably practical" comes into play.
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Old 23rd May 2020, 23:14
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July 1st seems to be restart some normality at least we should be able to go to Spain for holiday and not have to quarantine whilst there, this could be the first chance to get a nice pint in a pub...happy days...oops then we have to sit at home for 2 weeks afterwards oh well at least we had two weeks of freedom
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Old 24th May 2020, 09:11
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With the Cummings carryon, lockdown essentially ends now. I can't imagine anyone paying the slightest attention to a two weeks isolation post holiday.
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Old 24th May 2020, 11:26
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Originally Posted by inOban
If anyone would like a proper academic analysis of the outbreak, can I suggest
Academics are like Economists................. theoretically great but it doesn't have to be anywhere close to what they say.
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Old 24th May 2020, 11:36
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Actually you don’t know the current levels of infection because the state are managing that information stream .

The R number is certainly manipulated and emphasis on the raw death numbers rather than percentages has scared the population into sense of fear that is probably not called for.

Condolences to those that have fallen victim and all their families including all those in the NHS and those in care homes where frankly the national response has been pitiful to say the least.

The levels of minor infection and recovery rates should be far more prominently reported and understood imho.

Its far from a death sentence for the vast vast majority and indeed huge areas of the U.K. have little or just few and in the case of some rural areas NO reported infections .

Even in the high death rated areas the figures need to be more nuanced especially when those very high levels such as Harrow have receiving hospitals serving several neighbouring boroughs and even further afield .

The two metre zone is purely political and without much international evidence of its effectiveness, indeed other countries use a much smaller zone when social distancing

The UK government initiatives - late to the party have always been primarily targeted at reducing the risk burden to the heath service facilities rather than containing the spread . Indeed they don’t deny this explicit intention - They went for a LONGER period of risk time however believed that would somehow reduce the potential burdens .

They expected large levels of infections in some the inner cities hence those emergency facilities . None were really needed in hindsight and anyway they couldn’t even staff them .

As to the now proposed two week quarantine on return for other EU states in particular this is I believe another attempt at populism based on poor scientific evidence and yes a level xenophobia over a certain other pressing issue.

This country including myself ( layed off) absolutely need to accelerate the return to productivity and work pretty much right now imho.

Globally second waves haven’t caused significantly more rapid reinfection from what I see and read .

The economic damage done combined with with another political movement has probably seen the end of rather many 50 + olds careers rather to early.

Sufice to say I also expect the EU/EEA quarantine period to evaporate within weeks right now.







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Old 24th May 2020, 11:52
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Surely another driver has to be the FCO removing the advice about unnecessary travel. Until that’s removed no ones going anywhere.
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Old 24th May 2020, 11:56
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Originally Posted by Rutan16
As to the now proposed two week quarantine on return for other EU states in particular this is I believe another attempt at populism based on poor scientific evidence and yes a level xenophobia over a certain other pressing issue.
If you stop people travelling abroad they have to spend money in the country................ economically they will want it.

Post Black Death there was massive xenophobia that foreigners brought the disease and should be shunned..................... it will happen here again.
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Old 24th May 2020, 11:58
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Originally Posted by CaptainSensible
Surely another driver has to be the FCO removing the advice about unnecessary travel. Until thatís removed no ones going anywhere.
Wonder did Dom get the memo ?
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Old 24th May 2020, 12:28
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It is perhaps worth noting that plenty of countries are taking the 'foreigners not wanted as they all have plague' approach. You are unlikely to see country A admitting country B's citizens while country B bans all A's citizens. Schengen rules on freedom of movement do not apply right now. Greece for example which is highly dependent on inbound tourism to its islands has said very explicitly that people from the UK are not welcome for the time being. Foreigners will be reluctant to visit the UK while the death rate is high

If the aim is to revive the UK's aviation sector then the UK's priority should be to demonstrate to other countries that both cases and deaths are few - this is the only way to persuade other countries to gain confidence and open their borders. People living in the UK are not going to be booking flights if they see a risk of being quarantined at their own additional cost when they wanted a week on the beach. Of course some may say that reviving the UK's domestic business (eg pubs, High St shops, factories and offices) takes a higher priority than the travel sector.

Deeply frustrating for those in the transport and travel industries, but having dithered/delayed and generally messed up in Feb/March, the UK has landed in the naughty corner and has to show it can be trusted on disease management instead of holidaying Brits bringing microscopic unwelcome guests to other countries

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Old 24th May 2020, 13:06
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Originally Posted by racedo
Academics are like Economists................. theoretically great but it doesn't have to be anywhere close to what they say.
Prof Spegelhalter's analysis of the data is worth it.
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