Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

[racedo]

Originally Posted by LTNman

and you don’t want to take a vaccine for a couple of years.

and ?

Are you suggesting that people should be just lined up and a vaccine injected and maybe some chips installed so govt can read who has it.

[Yeehaw22]

Originally Posted by LTNman

Who thinks the Canaries will go back on to the naughty list once infectious Brits start to arrive.

LTNman do you ever post anything with any positive vibes anymore? The travel industry needs every crumb it can get at present without all the negativity. How long will it last? Who knows, some of the Greek Islands have managed it fine for the past few months, some haven't.

[racedo]

Originally Posted by inOban

If you're using estimates of the number of people who have had Covid19, then you must use estimates of the number of deaths, and that number in many developing countries is several times the number of confirmed Covid19 deaths. Even in the USA the number of excess deaths is, I think I read today, at least 50% higher than the number of confirmed deaths.

But if testing was done at the level it is now then "real number" of cases would be many times higher, especially in UK as they are doing in excess of 300,000 tests a day.
I went for another test this week because of a secondary risk, site offered me a test within 10 minutes of the time I was logged on at i,e 10-10.30 and had a couple of hundred available tests that day.

[racedo]

Originally Posted by Yeehaw22

LTNman do you ever post anything with any positive vibes anymore? The travel industry needs every crumb it can get at present without all the negativity. How long will it last? Who knows, some of the Greek Islands have managed it fine for the past few months, some haven't.

If one household member did not have to isolate for next week i would happily have jumped on a flight to the Canaries, stayed in normal hotel I use and spent lots of €€€. May have not made a huge impact but it would have helped.

[LTNman]

Originally Posted by Yeehaw22

LTNman do you ever post anything with any positive vibes anymore? The travel industry needs every crumb it can get at present without all the negativity. How long will it last? Who knows, some of the Greek Islands have managed it fine for the past few months, some haven't.

I will be in the queue to do my bit to save aviation when a vaccine is released unlike some here who won’t do a thing apart from complain.

I struggle to think of an alternate path to freedom at the moment.

[Yeehaw22]

Originally Posted by LTNman

I will be in the queue to do my bit to save aviation when a vaccine is released unlike some here who won’t do a thing apart from complain.

I struggle to think of an alternate path to freedom at the moment.

Right so why the need to be on a downer on everything then? Whether it be here or on the Luton thread where you used to be such a good informative contributer everything's now doom and gloom. Even when there's just a snippet of fairly positive news.

[davidjohnson6]

In LTNman's defence, many on here wish the aviation industry well. As someone who has contributed positively to these forums for many years, LTNman should not have to prove his motivations on a continual basis or chant slogans praising all things flying related. A somewhat dark humour attempt based on past experience should be taken the way it was intended - as humour

[racedo]

Originally Posted by davidjohnson6

In LTNman's defence, many on here wish the aviation industry well. As someone who has contributed positively to these forums for many years, LTNman should not have to prove his motivations on a continual basis or chant slogans praising all things flying related. A somewhat dark humour attempt based on past experience should be taken the way it was intended - as humour

Gallows humour.

I know teenagers who view every day as "Free School Lottery" day on basis they may get to school and get told to go home and isolate.

[Dannyboy39]

How are young people going to react when they are told they are not going to be given a vaccine and thus the last ones to travel.

I presume there will be no private options available.

[ZFT]

Originally Posted by Dannyboy39

How are young people going to react when they are told they are not going to be given a vaccine and thus the last ones to travel.

I presume there will be no private options available.

I suspect that is an incorrect presumption. There is a killing to be made from any potential vaccine and as always, money talks.

[Mr Mac]

Dannyboy
I think you will find there are many private options available when a proven vaccine is available. What the market rate will be I am not sure, but Yellow fever inoculations or indeed just the paperwork to say you had been inoculated (true or false) used to (may still do) command a good market rate in Africa where it was required to enter some states.
Cheers
Mr Mac

[Dannyboy39]

Originally Posted by Mr Mac

Dannyboy
I think you will find there are many private options available when a proven vaccine is available. What the market rate will be I am not sure, but Yellow fever inoculations or indeed just the paperwork to say you had been inoculated (true or false) used to (may still do) command a good market rate in Africa where it was required to enter some states.
Cheers
Mr Mac

I hope you’re right, but this is far far different than the normal vaccine you’d get for a trip to India per se. This is a vaccine that the entire globe has been waiting nearly a year for; the key to return to normality.

Availability and cost is going to be the $64,000 question. Will some drug companies / private care providers be charging the cost of the holy grail to get it? And will there be people camping outside the front doors waiting to get it - hence why there is a priority list.

[Mr Mac]

Dannyboy
Depends on the pharmaceutical industry and to a degree govts as is not the case that this would be looked as a case of for the greater good. I am not sure if I were the boss of a large Pharma company that I would be that eager to charge the earth for something which as you say may have to be administered to much of the worlds population. If they did, the first AGM with share holders present would need serious protection

Cheers
Mr Mac

[davidjohnson6]

Drug firms desire maximum profit, subject to not taking on too much political risk, and will charge different prices dependent on the wealth of each country.

Countries may require that drug firms divert most vaccine doses to public sector hospitals... with only a bit left over for the private sector. A person in Switzerland will likely be willing and able to pay a higher price than a person in Somalia. I suspect that many of the wealthier people in the world (ie anyone earning more than maybe £50k per year) and large corporations will pay handsomely to be able to show a vaccine certificate without waiting 6 months while the pensioners are processed

There is a high correlation between a country's wealth and its propensity to buy air tickets. The aviation industry will likely be content to let economics to run its course

[mike current]

Originally Posted by Dannyboy39

How are young people going to react when they are told they are not going to be given a vaccine and thus the last ones to travel.

I really hope it won't be used as a go / no go criteria.
The idea is that with the vaccine in place, the overall infection rates will drop to the point that it's safe to reopen society normally. However that takes time and I would expect a number of restrictions still in place long after the vaccine is out.

Right not younger / healthier people who could safely face the risk of catching the virus are being penalised with heavy restrictions like the rest of society, while they could happily go about their business, Getting a vaccine is not going to be a golden ticket for the person who gets it, it's a benefit to the whole society.
Right now people who have just recovered and have the highest number of antibodies are not being given special concessions, so why should vaccinated people?

[Gurnard]

The IOM-GCI air-bridge (mentioned yesterday) has been suspended with new coronavirus cases arising in Guernsey where the Chief Minister has stated:-
'There's going to be no opening of our borders, there's no going to be no relaxation of our controls, we are dealing with the situation which has cropped up in the last few days in the usual efficient manner.'

[oldart]

The one good thing that has come out regarding Covid 19, one's personal hygiene should have improved greatly, maybe a benefit for future air travel.

[racedo]

Originally Posted by oldart

The one good thing that has come out regarding Covid 19, one's personal hygiene should have improved greatly, maybe a benefit for future air travel.

One's personal hygiene not an issue, the monthly bath still happens, socks changed weekly , it is the other buggers.

A serious point though is who tests and cerifies all the Alcohol gels ?

[inOban]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684

Since there are some on this thread who don't understand why this virus is much more serious than the similar ones which cause the common cold, or the flu virus, I found the link above interesting.

[racedo]

Originally Posted by inOban

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54648684

Since there are some on this thread who don't understand why this virus is much more serious than the similar ones which cause the common cold, or the flu virus, I found the link above interesting.

All virus can be serious to the people getting them. Majority of people infcted with this so far are recovering.

This Virus is a lot less serious than 1918 Flu pandemic, the population of the World was 1.8 billion, 500 million caught it and between 50-100 million died. A death rate of 10-20% and close to 30% of the population being infected. On a similar level today it would see 2.2 billion infected with between 220 - 530 million people dying.

1968 Flu pandemic killed between 1-4 million people on a population of 3.6 billlion.