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Flybe-9

Old 28th Jan 2020, 14:16
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If Flybe disappears, Eastern and Loganair will need to rethink their marketing and distribution, but they are already taking the commercial risk on their routes.
But surely there is a reason that airlines such as this join the franchise, so maybe it isn't so simple,,,

other than that they don't provide any particular service which couldn't be replicated by someone else
Such as? where's the scale that BE has?

There is - it's called a car or a railway - or even a boat..................
Car or trains aren't alternatives on routes like NCL-EXT - they're punishments...



Last edited by SWBKCB; 28th Jan 2020 at 14:52.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 14:35
  #2962 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by awwdabaaby View Post
There is a Loganair Codeshare in place now
exactly why I wrote "other than some codeshares..."
My point was that Flybe isn't the main distribution platform for Loganair anymore.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 15:25
  #2963 (permalink)  
 
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"Car or trains aren't alternatives on routes like NCL-EXT - they're punishments..."

Take your time, leave the Motorway and make a trip of it - you don't HAVE to go there and back in a day - whatever you think......................
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 15:48
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I wonder how important visibility on Google Flights and Skyscanner is compared to other more traditional OTA? My question is if local knowledge of Loganair combined with Skyscanner, etc is enough for the smaller airlines to survive.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 15:48
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Asturias56

I assume that you are joking.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 16:26
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TartinTon has hit the nail on the head. Flybe need to revise their pricing structure for the peak time business routes. It is too cheap at present. Flybe are selling speed and convenience in domestic connectivity and don't need to go for 100% load factor.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 17:33
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Originally Posted by Expressflight View Post
Asturias56

I assume that you are joking.
Actually no - I'm not

In a long career I think of the times when the plane didn't go, or went technical or the weather socked in at one end or the other and I was delayed by 24-48 hours. It never made a difference............. you THINK it's necessary to go out and back in day but it really isn't - normally you can do it over the phone or the internet. If you have to be there - say to fix something - does staying over a night make a difference ? Not really - you just get run ragged. Sure it sounds great - jetting about the UK or wherever - but we all know it's no a great deal of fun and you waste most of the time...........
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 18:07
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Asturius56

You were obviously engaged in forms of business which allowed for such an approach; just a quick phone call or email and the deal's done, or the problem resolved. I was never that lucky nor, I suspect, were my colleagues and our competitors.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 19:03
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Take your time, leave the Motorway and make a trip of it - you don't HAVE to go there and back in a day - whatever you think
It's not what I think, but what my employer - and family - think. Ambling about the country isn't a luxury most of us have.

Last edited by SWBKCB; 28th Jan 2020 at 19:19.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 19:16
  #2970 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Expressflight View Post
Asturius56

You were obviously engaged in forms of business which allowed for such an approach; just a quick phone call or email and the deal's done, or the problem resolved. I was never that lucky nor, I suspect, were my colleagues and our competitors.
For UK business travel I prefer the car, then the train, and finally the plane. Time spent getting to and from the airport is often better spent getting nearer to your final destination. Add in security, sat in departures and the safety margin you add in for traffic on the way to the airport and you are almost always 3 hours nearer to your destination before the flight actually departs. You have access to your phone in the car and your laptop and phone on the train. Neither are available in the air. At the other end you have to get out of the airport and on to your final destination. More time added to the travel by plane method. Most importantly when you drive, your schedule is your own, and not dictated by the airlines. The trains always run more regularly than the scheduled flight (2-3 hourly services versus 2 daily services). If crossing water is not involved (unless it's the near continent) I drive, or take the train. If I'm crossing water I fly.
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Old 28th Jan 2020, 19:52
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
Car or trains aren't alternatives on routes like NCL-EXT - they're punishments...
Well, if Flybe is unable to charge fares on such routes that keep them afloat, apparently thise routes are not without alternatives - as otherwise they would be a licence to print money instead of bancrupting the operator.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 09:00
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Originally Posted by virginblue View Post
Well, if Flybe is unable to charge fares on such routes that keep them afloat, apparently thise routes are not without alternatives - as otherwise they would be a licence to print money instead of bancrupting the operator.
I think poor marketing might have more to do with it.

As a semi regular user of the route, I always assess the alternatives. Usually (unless booking months ahead), the plane would be a third of the price of 2nd class train. There's more leg room in a Q400, and with most seats you can look out of a window, which isnt the case on the crowded un-punctual train, when sometimes you don't get a seat. And it's a bit of a fallacy that you can work with your laptop on the train. In 2nd class on cross country, there's barely room to open the screen, and the lateral shaking in the underfloor-slung diesel engined carriages in either 1st or 2nd makes it a bit of a joke.

Oh, and the thought of driving off motorway suggested above by Asturias is clearly written by somebody who is not used to regularly driving such roads through the populated areas of the north and midlands of the UK.

Flybe have singularly failed to make the best of the market opportunity and communicate the offer to the potential users.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 09:03
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
"Car or trains aren't alternatives on routes like NCL-EXT - they're punishments..."

Take your time, leave the Motorway and make a trip of it - you don't HAVE to go there and back in a day - whatever you think......................
Which is perfectly fine if you live in the UK. However for the Channel Islands, say you wish to travel from Birmingham to Guernsey/Jersey, without Flybe, alternative is divert to Manchester, LGW or SOU or drive to Portsmouth or Poole and catch a ferry which in winter is 1 per day and a 7 hour crossing to Guernsey and 9 to Jersey
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 10:55
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Egda

you could also nip across to EMA with both BI and Aurigny flying to JER and GCI.

Last edited by cobopete; 29th Jan 2020 at 12:28.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 14:35
  #2975 (permalink)  
 
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It is clear that there is no easy answer for the Flybe issues.
What is clear is that the likes of Aurigny being Guernsey government owned can now provide security on lifeline routes for the local residents, albeit at a cost.
Rather than the government stepping in to rescue Flybe it could expand the PSO scheme to add more true regional/lifeline routes?
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 17:20
  #2976 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by asdf1234 View Post
For UK business travel I prefer the car, then the train, and finally the plane. Time spent getting to and from the airport is often better spent getting nearer to your final destination. Add in security, sat in departures and the safety margin you add in for traffic on the way to the airport and you are almost always 3 hours nearer to your destination before the flight actually departs. You have access to your phone in the car and your laptop and phone on the train. Neither are available in the air. At the other end you have to get out of the airport and on to your final destination. More time added to the travel by plane method. Most importantly when you drive, your schedule is your own, and not dictated by the airlines. The trains always run more regularly than the scheduled flight (2-3 hourly services versus 2 daily services). If crossing water is not involved (unless it's the near continent) I drive, or take the train. If I'm crossing water I fly.
Maybe just me but I buy a fast track and turn up at MAN 1 hr before departure time. Same on way back from EDI (though dont even need a fast-track for that leg). Done it for two years now, never missed a flight or been last to board etc, still get at least 20 mins waiting for boarding.

Also very rarely get delay. Cancelled once.

Drove to Newcastle yesterday and back, got lots of calls done sure, but absolutley knackered today.

You can't work on a train wi-fi is horrific.
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Old 29th Jan 2020, 22:44
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AirSouthWest

As much as I love flybe - I`m a regular passenger from Birmingham - I have to agree with you - the clocks ticking...

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Old 30th Jan 2020, 06:47
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Originally Posted by airsouthwest View Post
From my point of view it appears Virgin have realised they have bought a sinking ship, Christine OW basically crippled the airline and it's out of cash. Virgin could easily just throw all the money Flybe needs and get it back on track, however the business model just is broken and I think Virgin and Stobart just feel it's not worth chucking loads of money into a business which has been struggling since 2010. The only way Flybe is ever going to get profitable again is to cut back and reduce costs, something which was done in Saad Hammad's time and was starting to pay off before he left, I love Flybe, I worked for them for nearly 5 years and it's painful to see them in this situation, especially when I know so many people who will be directly affected by redundancies or at worst the airline shutting up shop, but if i'm being honest I do think the clock is counting down on Flybe and unless something dramatically changes, I don't think they can survive much longer.
Agreed. I think the fact that the new owners have virtually done nothing to slash the cash burn and alter the business model into something worth fighting for says a lot about their intent. The company is losing huge amounts of cash every day, yet their silence is deafening. Itís a very sick and dying animal and the vets are standing by watching it die!

The latest ĎCap in handí to the airports over unpaid handling fees is just preposterous given the wealth of their owners and really shows how ridiculous the whole situation has become. I feel for the employees who must be worried sick about their future.
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 09:35
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Asset-stripping timescales

Originally Posted by Atlantic Explorer View Post
Agreed. I think the fact that the new owners have virtually done nothing to slash the cash burn and alter the business model into something worth fighting for says a lot about their intent. The company is losing huge amounts of cash every day, yet their silence is deafening. It’s a very sick and dying animal and the vets are standing by watching it die!

The latest ‘Cap in hand’ to the airports over unpaid handling fees is just preposterous given the wealth of their owners and really shows how ridiculous the whole situation has become. I feel for the employees who must be worried sick about their future.
Here's one possible scenario to explain the "doing nothing".

Flybe launched Heathrow to Aberdeen and Edinburgh in March 2017. The press release from December 2016 is here and says, among other things:
Flybe will operate the slots which became available as a result of commitments required by the European Commission following the acquisition of BMI by International Consolidated Airlines Group. Flybe is not required to pay to use the slots, other than meet Heathrow landing and passenger charges. The slots will not be purchased by Flybe and will therefore not be brought onto the balance sheet.
The commitments referred to are the slot-release commitments which IAG gave. The European Commission's full analysis of the BMI takeover is here (all 196 pages) but of particular interest (in the present discussion at least) is paragraph 644 on page 148 (my emphasis below):
1.1.3. Grandfathering rights
644. As a general rule, the slots obtained by a prospective entrant must be operated on the city pair(s) for which they have been requested from IAG and cannot be used on another city pair unless the prospective entrant has operated them during at least six full consecutive IATA seasons ("the Utilisation Period").The prospective entrant would be deemed to have grandfathering rights for the slots once appropriate use of the slots has been made on the city pairs at issue, for the Utilisation Period. Once the Utilisation Period has elapsed, the prospective entrant would be entitled to use the slots obtained on the basis of the Commitments exclusively to operate services on any route connecting London with any other part of Europe (including Aberdeen and Edinburgh), or on London-Moscow, London-Cairo and London-Riyadh.
Flybe started operating the slots at the start of S17, i.e. 26 March 2017. Six consecutive IATA seasons therefore elapse at the end of W19/20, i.e. 28 March 2020. With effect from the start of S20 (29 March), the slots can be used for any European destination from LHR (or MOW/CAI/RUH).

It seems to me that Heathrow slots are by some margin the most valuable assets which Flybe holds (even if they are not currently on the balance sheet - which is correct in accounting terms but also very convenient at the moment). The fact that they will be limited to European routes is neither here nor there - if someone wanted to use them in future for long-haul routes, it would be possible to do a swap with a carrier holding normal unrestricted LHR slots and which is unlikely ever to want to fly long-haul from Heathrow (e.g. Air France, KLM,...).

I believe (but am open to correction) that Flybe originally received 3 weekday Heathrow slot pairs for ABZ and 4 weekday Heathrow slot pairs for EDI. The Wikipedia table linked to above shows historic Heathrow slot prices. Even if we assume a very conservative £15m per slot pair, that's still over £100m, enough even to pay the APD bill . (Factors tending to reduce the price: Flybe has fewer slots at the weekend. Factors tending to increase the price: the slots include a desirable 0800 and 0900 arrival into Heathrow.)

For Flybe and its owners to gain access to these very valuable slots, Flybe has to keep operating until 28 March 2020 (or, to be more precise, until it has flown enough of the W19/20 frequencies under the 80/20 rule to gain grandfather rights, so probably a date somewhere in the first half of March, depending on how many cancellations or off-slot operations there have been in the season so far. You can bet that someone in Flybe, and someone else in ACL, is watching and counting VERY carefully).

If Flybe fails before that, it loses the rights to the Heathrow slots, its most valuable asset. If it keeps going until after that date, Jackpot! A quick slot-transfer transaction to hand the slots over to a friendly party, and Flybe will have fulfilled its role as an organ donor (slot donor) for its owners. And if having done that it then falls over before it manages to pay all those other bills, oh well, at least the owners will have the slots with which to console themselves.

At least that's how I see it (and I hope I am wrong; I think it would be disgraceful and disingenuous were the owners to do this). By all means disagree with this scenario, but then please tell me what's wrong with the above reasoning.
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 09:37
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Please tell me they are keeping the planes maintained while not paying any creditors and begging for money from Government. The Q400 may be a right Tank of an aircraft except for the occasional dodgy nose-wheel but there is only so much abuse they can withstand if not receiving normal care.
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