Flybe-9

[cornishsimon]

When flybe were rumored to be heading down the sink recently an interesting article came out suggesting plans were in place for the network to be cut into bits and various routes taken over by other airlines.

as it was behind a paywall I don’t know how detailed the reports were, can anyone elaborate ?

at this point I think a government loan isn’t going to be seen to be fair, and if it needs a loan on commercial terms why doesn’t Virgin Atlantic loan them ?

surely the better outcome would of been for IAG to buy the company rather than connect last year ?

cs

[BA318]

Originally Posted by cornishsimon

When flybe were rumored to be heading down the sink recently an interesting article came out suggesting plans were in place for the network to be cut into bits and various routes taken over by other airlines.

as it was behind a paywall I don’t know how detailed the reports were, can anyone elaborate ?

at this point I think a government loan isn’t going to be seen to be fair, and if it needs a loan on commercial terms why doesn’t Virgin Atlantic loan them ?

surely the better outcome would of been for IAG to buy the company rather than connect last year ?

cs

Very well may have been better for IAG to buy them but IAG wasn’t interested. Flybe is a basket case of an airline.

As for the article you mentioned, it didn’t feature any concrete plans just that other airlines had discussed stepping in and taking over routes if Flybe went under.

[caaardiff]

If Flybe can't make a route work on a 78 seat prop, how could the likes of Loganair make it work on a 50 seat jet? Granted there's one less crew member to cover the cost of, and am I right in thinking Loganair own the ER4's?
Is it down to internal overheads? Lease costs? Pricing strategy?
Flybe would be better off helping Eastern in get in better shape and look to use 50 seat props to take over the marginal routes that might support higher prices and frequency for business travellers and use their bigger props on the routes with higher demand?
I mean is there really demand for 3 EXT-MAN flights a day but only one EXT-EDI?
And 7 BHX-EDI flights / 7 BHX-GLA?
Surely chopping BHX-EDI/GLA down a bit would help the yield improve and there's still plenty of options for the frequency demands of business travellers.

[Alteagod]

A friend of a friend who swears his best mates other best friend heard from a source close to someone who is close to a guy who says he knows a girl who was told by a family friend that BHD management have secured other operators to step in and take on the majority of BE routes if they folded. Not sure how true it is but I would say more than BHD is having informal exploratory talks with carriers and possibly even outside the UK to take on some routes.

[sinbad73]

Originally Posted by Alteagod

A friend of a friend who swears his best mates other best friend heard from a source close to someone who is close to a guy who says he knows a girl who was told by a family friend that ...

I was lost after that much

[LTNman]

Originally Posted by Brigantee

https://www.ft.com/content/c87a967a-...7-eae9bd51ceba

This is why flybe needs to
be in public ownership

Can’t agree with that point of view.

The government has deferred payments of the passenger tax which I can understand as if the airline went bust they would likely not get that money anyway.

Worth pointing out that the government sees the importance of the Flybe UK connectivity yet many of those important routes are likely to be chopped anyway if there is to be any hope of saving the airline.

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by sinbad73

I was lost after that much

I think Alteagod was making the point that a lot of what is being written here, and doubtless elsewhere is pure rumour and conjecture, and largely devoid of actual fact. That's how read it anyway!

[Alteagod]

Exactly my point!!

[BA318]

https://www.cityam.com/flybe-looks-f...saves-airline/

"Companies House filings show the airline has also effectively mortgaged assets such as its engines and buildings to Global Loans Agency Services (GLAS).GLAS’ previous clients include Thomas Cook, Interserve and Carillion in the weeks before they went bust."

Certainly doesn't look good. They are also asking airports to delay payments for fees.

[GROUNDHOG]

Very well Alteagood makes the point too.

I doubt anyone here knows exactly the position with Flybe finances and if they did could not disclose the details but what seems to be abundantly clear is that the airline is losing money at a rapid rate of knots and whatever its shape in the future rearranging the deck chairs will butter no parsnips!
As LTNman says if the airline had failed then the Government would not have received any outstanding fees anyway, yes, give a honeymoon on past payments, but ensure future payments are made on time.
If the owners cannot transform the airline in to a sustainable business after that then the essential and PSO routes must be put to tender from other carriers and the rest will be decided by the owners.

[toledoashley]

Originally Posted by GROUNDHOG

Very well Alteagood makes the point too.

I doubt anyone here knows exactly the position with Flybe finances and if they did could not disclose the details but what seems to be abundantly clear is that the airline is losing money at a rapid rate of knots and whatever its shape in the future rearranging the deck chairs will butter no parsnips!
As LTNman says if the airline had failed then the Government would not have received any outstanding fees anyway, yes, give a honeymoon on past payments, but ensure future payments are made on time.
If the owners cannot transform the airline in to a sustainable business after that then the essential and PSO routes must be put to tender from other carriers and the rest will be decided by the owners.

The government should be neutral and should have at least a Plan A and even a Plan B (which are in the public domain) in case flyBe in its current form can't be saved. This could be public ownership, could be expansion of PSO routes, sale of some assets to other airlines/partnership, reform of APD &/or subsidies...

[Dropoffcharge]

Originally Posted by GROUNDHOG

If the owners cannot transform the airline in to a sustainable business after that then the essential and PSO routes must be put to tender from other carriers and the rest will be decided by the owners.

I couldn't agree more, the fact is the flybe business is now a bad egg, unfortunately probably beyond saving as a whole, at least let someone salvage the lifeline routes and to continue to provide the connectivity from the islands to the mainland.

[sinbad73]

Originally Posted by ATNotts

I think Alteagod was making the point that a lot of what is being written here, and doubtless elsewhere is pure rumour and conjecture, and largely devoid of actual fact. That's how read it anyway!

The irony was not lost on me.

[LTNman]

Originally Posted by toledoashley

The government should be neutral and should have at least a Plan A and even a Plan B (which are in the public domain) in case flyBe in its current form can't be saved. This could be public ownership, could be expansion of PSO routes, sale of some assets to other airlines/partnership, reform of APD &/or subsidies...

This government would never take Flybe into public ownership. We are not talking about railway franchises we are taking about a minor transport bit player when compared to the transportation giants.

[TartinTon]

Switching to Amadeus would have produced a large 8 digit hole in it's finances from what they were paying before. The switch to an easyjet pricing model a few years ago where their model is to maximise the load factor (and that's just not the case in regional flying) was never going to work. Just looked at a Mon-Thu peak return in March and I can do it for £120 all-in. There's just no need to price at such a stupidly low price when you know you are going to sell out. Unfortunaltely they have decided to rely on algorithmic programmes instead of getting people in who actually know what they're doing. It's a shame as there was potential there at one time.

[Cyrano]

It seems to me that the Flybe network has several parts:

1. Franchise flying (e.g. Eastern/Loganair)
2. International flights (AMS/CDG to various UK points, SOU to various French points, etc.)
3. Competed domestic city pairs (Flybe and BACF both fly LCY to EDI, Flybe flies BHX to Belfast City but easyJet flies BHX to Belfast International, etc.)
4. "Domestic connectivity" routes fliown by Flybe aircraft where Flybe is the only operator, for example EXT-MAN, CWL-EDI, etc.)

Surely if we want to talk about a supposed "need to save" the connectivity that Flybe provides, it's only the routes in the last of these categories which are relevant? If Flybe disappears, Eastern and Loganair will need to rethink their marketing and distribution, but they are already taking the commercial risk on their routes. Flybe flies perhaps 6/day BHX-AMS, but KLM flies 4/day - that's definitely not an optimum use of scarce AMS slots. If Flybe stops flying LCY to EDI, BACF will make up any slack (as will other London-Edinburgh payers). So what proportion of Flybe routes fall into the last category, i.e. the ones which you could argue genuinely play a role in domestic UK connectivity and which are operated by Flybe metal?

[toledoashley]

Originally Posted by LTNman

This government would never take Flybe into public ownership. We are not talking about railway franchises we are taking about a minor transport bit player when compared to the transportation giants.

I'm not saying they should. What there should be is a domestic aviation policy from the Government - with a range of things on the table if flybe isn't viable long term. The current situation of backing flyBe no mater what with no plan B doesn't feel like a sensible plan.

[BA318]

Originally Posted by Cyrano

It seems to me that the Flybe network has several parts:

1. Franchise flying (e.g. Eastern/Loganair)
2. International flights (AMS/CDG to various UK points, SOU to various French points, etc.)
3. Competed domestic city pairs (Flybe and BACF both fly LCY to EDI, Flybe flies BHX to Belfast City but easyJet flies BHX to Belfast International, etc.)
4. "Domestic connectivity" routes fliown by Flybe aircraft where Flybe is the only operator, for example EXT-MAN, CWL-EDI, etc.)

Surely if we want to talk about a supposed "need to save" the connectivity that Flybe provides, it's only the routes in the last of these categories which are relevant? If Flybe disappears, Eastern and Loganair will need to rethink their marketing and distribution, but they are already taking the commercial risk on their routes. Flybe flies perhaps 6/day BHX-AMS, but KLM flies 4/day - that's definitely not an optimum use of scarce AMS slots. If Flybe stops flying LCY to EDI, BACF will make up any slack (as will other London-Edinburgh payers). So what proportion of Flybe routes fall into the last category, i.e. the ones which you could argue genuinely play a role in domestic UK connectivity and which are operated by Flybe metal?

The Loganair franchise went a few years back. Other than some codeshares, Loganair is independent of Flybe now. There are very few routes that Flybe operate outright which are lifeline routes now. The IOM routes have some deal to carry medical passengers to Liverpool. Newquay-LGW is a PSO route but other than that they don't provide any particular service which couldn't be replicated by someone else.

[awwdabaaby]

Originally Posted by BA318

The Loganair franchise went a few years back. Other than some codeshares, Loganair is independent of Flybe now. There are very few routes that Flybe operate outright which are lifeline routes now. The IOM routes have some deal to carry medical passengers to Liverpool. Newquay-LGW is a PSO route but other than that they don't provide any particular service which couldn't be replicated by someone else.

There is a Loganair Codeshare in place now

[Asturias56]

"with a range of things on the table if flybe isn't viable long term."

There is - it's called a car or a railway - or even a boat..................