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Old 26th Jan 2008, 23:05
  #321 (permalink)  
 
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The case for Ryanair base at LBA

At some point Ryanair will want to base to the east of the pennines. There are five airports to choose from Newcastle, Teesside, Humberside, Doncaster and Leeds / Bradford. In reality there is only one choice: LBA. Here are my reasons;

Newcastle : Not central to the region, although does have a large catchment in its own right and should be a base in the future. Easyjet already have large loyal customer base which could hinder growth plus Jet2. Passengers would be reluctant to travel all the way north with similarly priced flights closer to home.

Teesside : Well to the north of the region with smaller catchment. Other low cost airlines have tried and failed due to lack of demand. This would mean very few profitable destinations could be served.

Humberside : Low catchment area. Far to the east of the region, although easily accesible. No low cost airlines at present. Ryanair base would not make money. Even 'bucket and spade' routes would struggle to fill 190 seats.

Doncaster : Already fairly close (M1) to the East Midlands base. Airport with space and able to be developed. Road access could be improved with funds. Catchment not sufficient to enable moderate profitable base. Loyal Jet2 customers would still use LBA. Other customers would use EMA. Deal already done with other low cost airline who have greatly reduced flights. No scheduled flights within mainland England confirming overcapacity within the region.

Leeds / Bradford : Central to the eastern pennines with good road access to the Leeds region from all 4 points of the compass; Hull / Sheffield / Manchester / (Middlesboro / Newcastle). Large west yorkshire catchment in its own right. More people living within 2 hours of LBA than any other airport in the country [including heathrow]. Immediate local road access requires improving. Only one major low cost airline based. Ryanair already recognised brand in the region. Leeds is and will be the booming city in England despite the gov. giving nowt and taking it for the london olympics.

Just my thoughts. Feel free to comment.

Regards,

Leeds App. (vested interest)
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 08:11
  #322 (permalink)  
 
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The BE did not make it in at about 2000 though did it from Southampton!

The Eastern J41 did!
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 09:30
  #323 (permalink)  
 
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fish Leeds Approach

How nice to see such a 1 sided comment. What a load of tosh!!!

With Newcastle, Humberside, and Doncastle Robin Hood, you are not too far from the mark.

I do not know how you believe that Durham Tees Valley (not Teesside) is "well to the North of the region with a smaller catchment" when compairing with NCL. Do you not know basic geography? DTVA has a larger catchment area than Newcastle. Within 1 hour from DTVA you can reach to the North of Newcastle, and south of York, and almost reaching Leeds. Within 2 hours (as you state from LBA), from DTVA you can easily hit Sheffield, Doncaster, Hull, Manchester, and probably not too far off Edinburgh.

You say that other low cost airlines have tried and failed. Infact only ONE, BMI Baby has pulled out, which was a complete surprise, due to their high pax figures. If they was not the demand from DTVA, the airport would not have been able to bring in a replacement LCC within 7 days of the BMI Baby announcement. Fly Globespan's pax numbers from DTVA are healthy, and if they charged the fares that Jet 2 and easyJet charge from LBA / NCL, then, the number of empty seats would be almost nil.

Your comment that more people live within 2 hours of LBA than Heathrow is so laughable its untrue. Within 2 hours of Heathrow you can get as far West as Cardiff, well past Birmingham, and well up the M1. Do you know how many people actually live in the South of England????????

Why would Ryanair choose an airport, with the highest % of diverted flights from any UK airport, due to weather.

Last edited by inglebyboro; 27th Jan 2008 at 09:32. Reason: spelling
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 11:46
  #324 (permalink)  
 
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I Call It Teesside

Hi inglebyboro,

thanks for your response. This is what I wanted; a debate. You are obviously passionate about your local aerodrome, which is to be admired. My statements are one sided since I have given reasons why I think LBA is the most suitable and has the most potential to be succesful for Ryanair.

The region I am talking about is for between newcastle in the north to just south of sheffield in the south and the whole of east yorkshire (hull etc) and north lincolnshire in the east to huddersfield in the west. So durham tv is much closer to the north of this area, you will accept. I was not comparing durham airport's catchment to newcastle's but with leeds' catchment.

Yes only one low cost carrier has pulled out because very few have tried to make it work there. I might have been a surprise to you but it wasn't to the moneymen. I also know that both ryanair and flyglobespan have axed routes that have failed from the airport.

The reason why jet2 and easy charge more is because there is greater demand this is why bmibaby pulled out: fairs were reduced and still the planes could not be filled with passengers.

My comment about the 2 hour catchment of the LBA is fact so you better keep laughing mate. I admit it is not a well known fact amongst the aviation world but it is fact nevertheless. Hopefully someone will be able to back up my words from the relevant stats document. Think about it birmingham, leicester, nottingham, sheffield, liverpool, manchester, hull, newcastle, middlesboro plus all the other large towns in the north and north midlands. Oh yes I almost forgot leeds! So yes I do know my geography.

The weather is often poor at LBA (not least the last few days) and I am sure this would be considered by any airline considering where to base. With the advancement in technology and landing aides and money to be spent on this at LBA the proportion of diverted aircraft will continue to fall, which it has during recent years.

Thankyou for the reply though. We all want to see our local airports thrive.

Leeds App.
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 17:53
  #325 (permalink)  
 
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My comment about the 2 hour catchment of the LBA is fact so you better keep laughing mate. I admit it is not a well known fact amongst the aviation world but it is fact nevertheless. Hopefully someone will be able to back up my words from the relevant stats document. Think about it birmingham, leicester, nottingham, sheffield, liverpool, manchester, hull, newcastle, middlesboro plus all the other large towns in the north and north midlands. Oh yes I almost forgot leeds! So yes I do know my geography.
A rough calculation I work it out to be:

2 hours from LBA .... 30,421,000
2 hours from LHR .... 27,288,000

Obviously there is some overlap in the midlands regions.

Anyway back to Ryanair, they had done a fair bit of route chopping at MME and have axed a route or two from NCL and dropped Pisa from DSA. I think it will be between LBA or DSA personally.
Weather isn't a major issue, I have some rather interesting facts that shud shut some of you LBA haters up!!! Since October 2006 LBA has had 49 flights diverted to either MAN,DSA,NCL,HUY,MME,LPL and EMA. However, guess how many flights LBA has taken due to bad weather at DSA,MAN,MME,NCL,HUY & EMA????? (Your not going to like this LBA haters!!!!) We have had 55 inbound diverts!!!! So think of that next time you have a go at LBA!!

Last edited by A320fan; 27th Jan 2008 at 21:00.
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 19:15
  #326 (permalink)  
 
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A320Fan, whilst I too am a fan of LBA I find your diversion facts interesting and surprising to say the least. I wonder how many pax were put out by these diverts both in and out of LBA. Given Jet2s 757s are not CAT3 I would guess these feature quite heavily in the divs out whilst a lot of inbound divs will be smaller things like KLM F70/100 from HUY and FlyBe Dash 8s from DSA.

I accept that the outbound divs hsve reduced since the CAT3 was installed, and can even remember a Ryanair 738 diverting into LBA when the LBA weather was worse than MME it's intended destination, in order to use the CAT3.

Back to the Ryanair base, I think DSA is more likely due to good Motorway connections and more importantly they already have more destinations served from there than from LBA plus there is hardly any spare apron space at LBA but plenty at DSA.

DSA are struggling to grow as quickly as hoped so they are more likely to give a good startup deal and terminal capacity is not an issue unlike LBA.

Ryanair dont fly from/to where the pax live they rely on low fares to get people to travel to where they fly from/to! If it were purely where do most pax live close to LBA would be the choice but they have built an airline on 1p fares to suck people into driving from Leeds to travel to LPL to catch a flight.

I hope I am proved wrong you never know they may move in and try to oust Jet2 with lower fares but I think it's unlikely, but they have to find somewhere to operate all these new 738s!
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 19:35
  #327 (permalink)  
 
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Hooded

What about the new base at BHX? Isn't that a main city?

LBA has a serious chance of attracting an FR base. DSA clearly isn't the runaway success that they predicted so will be a potential put off. My money would be on LBA over DSA but I would still put DSA over DTV and NCL because of the catchment areas.
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 19:58
  #328 (permalink)  
 
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Its the deal....

Believe me...it all depends on the deal that the competing airports are willing to do with Ryanair that will tip the scales.

The deal will be based on cheap landing fees / and the lowest per head charge that the airport can offer the airline. Indeed, when you do the maths on some of these deals it amounts to the airport operator paying Ryanair to fly there.

Now under Peel ownership DSA/MME both have the opportunity of a deal being done - indeed with the Thomson retenchments at DSA and the loss of Baby at MME - both would be keen to get Ryanair in.

For LBA, under its new owners - its fair to say Mr Parkin has a sizeable war chest to spend on route development, however he needs to tread a careful line and not upset the incumbents!

Of course (for LBA) adding extra services during what is rumoured to be a 24 month period of extensive terminal constuction might be a problem! Likewise for Bridgepoint to make a return on any deal with Ryanair they need to have the revamped terminal delivered with the ability to earn from more retail / parking and the suchlike. Fastrack security anyone?

Time will tell!
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 20:17
  #329 (permalink)  
 
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Have to admit Birmingham was a surprise given their presence at EMA buT lba clearly does not have the space for a say a 4/6 ac base DSA does! LBA is struggling with terminal capacity now and will do for the next 2 years DSA is not. LBA owners will be very cautious of welcoming Ryanair with Jet2 being their main source of income at the moment.

Remember Ryanair increasing their daily DUB flights until the startup deal expired they moved the extra flights to MAN when a further deal was denied. Granted thery are back at 3 daily now. Ryanair will, I feel get a deal at DSA and when it doesn't work out look at LBA in say a year or so when the infrastructure has started to improve.

Just my thoughts.
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 20:21
  #330 (permalink)  
 
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Grrr

Weather isn't a major issue, I have some rather interesting facts that shud shut some of you LBA haters up!!! Since October 2006 LBA has had 49 flights diverted to either MAN,DSA,HUY or MME. However, guess how many flights LBA has taken due to bad weather at DSA,MAN,MME,NCL,HUY & EMA????? (Your not going to like this LBA haters!!!!) We have had 55 inbound diverts!!!! So think of that next time you have a go at LBA!!
Oh, whooppee doo. Let's hang the bunting out and have a morris dance.

LBA lost 49 flights from their airport. One airport, right?

LBA attracted 55 inbound diverts from 6 airports over the same period, am I right?

Ergo, whilst LBA waved bye bye to 49 flights, the average number of diverts to LBA per airport as mentioned by you was just 9.1


Thank God LBA don't have you on their marketing team, because your ability to positively spin could have come straight out of Downing Street.

Stoney
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 20:47
  #331 (permalink)  
 
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whilst I too am a fan of LBA I find your diversion facts interesting and surprising to say the least. I wonder how many pax were put out by these diverts both in and out of LBA. Given Jet2s 757s are not CAT3 I would guess these feature quite heavily in the divs out whilst a lot of inbound divs will be smaller things like KLM F70/100 from HUY and FlyBe Dash 8s from DSA.
Yeah you are about spot on there, most of the ones we have lost were Jet2 757s,737s a few Ryanairs etc whereas the inbound diverts were mainly J41's/DH8's etc so pax wise we most likely have lost more than we gained but it proves the point that our humble little airport isnt all bad

I was having a good chat with a mate a few minutes ago about Ryanair and the potential northern base and yet again we came to the conclusion that they all have a chance but we think LBA may be more likely. We all must remember that a major target for Bridgepoint was to get pax figures up to 7 million by 2015, which im sorry to say cannot be done just by Jet2. So to meet this target we need continious growth, and this can only really come from either:

- The Charter Market ie Thomas Cook/Thomson decide to bump up their offering with either another Aircraft bases or more sub chartering
- We get Long Haul to somewhere like NYC/ATL with a US carrier or DXB with EK
- A large well known Loco opens a base at LBA and serves destinations with potential but are not served by Jet2 (cough cough Ryanair)

Now we all know which is the most likely ...... fingers X'd!

Oh, whooppee doo. Let's hang the bunting out and have a morris dance.

LBA lost 49 flights from their airport. One airport, right?

LBA attracted 55 inbound diverts from 6 airports over the same period, am I right?

Ergo, whilst LBA waved bye bye to 49 flights, the average number of diverts to LBA per airport as mentioned by you was just 9.1


Thank God LBA don't have you on their marketing team, because your ability to positively spin could have come straight out of Downing Street.
I was proving the point that we get inbound diverts aswell as outbound diverts, as on here only BAD things are said about LBA, I thought i'd just let people know we do have GOOD things happen to us! Yes we had an average on 9.1 flights per airport, but they don't all come to LBA do they! LBA lost 49 flights to LPL,MME,MAN,DSA,NCL,HUY and EMA so divide 49 by 7 and guess what .... it is 7! So on average we still had more diverts per airport to us than from us!!!

....... jees im glad you arn't on the marketing team for one of those airports ........

At the end of the day my aim was to highlight that we do get inbounds aswell, which is often overlooked! Well thats my 'rant' over, i'm go shut up now until Ryanair make a decision.

Last edited by A320fan; 27th Jan 2008 at 21:01.
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 21:19
  #332 (permalink)  
 
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The top 6 airports for diversions 2006

If I read the statistics correctly the LBA was the 6th worst airport in the
country for the number of diversions.

1 Stanstead 166
2 Luton 100
3 London City 89
4 Bristol 83
5 Birmingham 57
6 Leeds 53

It is a myth to say that we are the worst airport for diversions.It is based on our past reputation.It would be better still if we could get Cat2 or better on 14.Maybe that's where the money should be spent.

ILS32
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 21:32
  #333 (permalink)  
 
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........... maybe those figures would give a better representaion as a % or a ratio e.g. No. of inbound flights compared to the no. of diversions?

Bet that would bump up LBA's chart position!!!!!
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 21:44
  #334 (permalink)  
 
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Agreed, I was just about to post the same thing of all those airports LBA will have the lowest number of AT movements. The % figure would probably bump LBA into first place but then again it is the highest airport in the UK and suffers the worst for low cloud and X winds but at least the CAT3 has made a huge improvement.

Roll on some runway and ILS system improvements, sadly this seems low down Bridgepoints priority list. Terminal improvements have to come first but more retail outlets is not the way forward for increasing business in my book, slowing the diversion rate will help improve the airports reputation with it's customers both pax and airlines. The 757 Cat3 problem must be resolved before next winter, loosing 200+ pax a time, 400+ including the outbound, will not help the extra retail outlets sales will it?.
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 22:25
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Retail development vs operational development

I want to see Cat II on 14 and the 32 undershoot sorted to prevent the float which scuppers Jet2's 757s just as much as anyone else.

However the reality of UK airport economics is that airlines pay very little to the airport operator for access and its down to the airport to make its money from ancillaries.

Bridgepoint need to get pax through the door but once they done that they've got to get them to spend too. This is one of Bridgepoint's stated aims.

This is one of the interesting issues when you consider the merits of attracting an operator like Wizz. Fine to get people through the terminal, however if the main demographic is punters from downroute that *may not* spend in the cafes and shops - its going to cost the airport operator more than the notional income that these pax derive.

Last edited by 14 loop; 27th Jan 2008 at 22:28. Reason: typo
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 22:30
  #336 (permalink)  
 
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757 Speedbrakes and HOODED

You are both correct compared to the number of movement we would be top of the list.We are getting better and the 53 diversions for 2006 look good if compared to 2000, when 227 aircraft had to divert.
In 2000 we probably had half the number of movements that we had in 2006.

ILS32
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Old 27th Jan 2008, 22:40
  #337 (permalink)  
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Those statistics are best presented as a percentage of all movements rather than absolute values.

I suspect LBA would be further up the list should the stats be presented so.
 
Old 28th Jan 2008, 00:22
  #338 (permalink)  
 
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Diversions as a percentage of Air Transport Movements at LBA and BRS 1997-2006

Here is the most recent batch of continuous historical data I can get. As a comparitor I've included the figures for Bristol (similar geography) over the same period. Both airfields purchased CatIII ILS systems on their westerly runways during the nineties. The reason for diversion is not specified, but in most cases it is wx.

LBA
% ATMs Divs
1997 0.88 25569 227
1998 0.34 25133 87
1999 0.21 25762 55
2000 0.46 28656 132
2001 0.36 28397 103
2002 0.29 28566 83
2003 0.19 29397 57
2004 0.10 31493 32
2005 0.13 35494 47
2006 0.14 37251 53

Bristol
% ATMs Divs
1997 0.71 31546 225
1998 0.29 33645 98
1999 0.53 34986 185
2000 0.51 36185 183
2001 0.39 40947 161
2002 0.26 45829 120
2003 0.19 49548 93
2004 0.14 56079 76
2005 0.11 61311 67
2006 0.13 65825 83


Both airfields have similar 'diversion rates' over the period. In both cases the trend is actual diversion totals down whilst over the same period ATMs up (although the magnitude of ATM growth at BRS far greater).

Interesting that Bristol doesn't recieve the flaming that LBA does over its weather record - despite the diversion rate being similar.
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Old 28th Jan 2008, 01:03
  #339 (permalink)  
 
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Diversions as a percentage of ATMs 2006 league table

Here goes

1 Plymouth
2 Wick
3 Newquay
4 City of Derry
5 Sumburgh
6 Cardiff
7 Coventry
8 Southampton
9 LBA
10 Bristol
11 London City
12 Luton
13 Belfast City
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Old 28th Jan 2008, 07:41
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RE run the list based on airports with a Cat3 ILS on at least one end and it comes out rather diffrent !
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