CORK - 5

[EI Premier]

Just hear Aer Lingus are planning to re-instate ,

Dublin-San Francisco & Washington for Summer 2011 ! maybe EI could be on the horision for Cork its also returing to profitability in Q1 2011

Rapid expansion is NOT on the horizon. I have heard in the past several days that Dublin - San Francisco, is the penultimate route awaiting re-activation - however the timing has to be right. We need to see:

• A firming of the overall Global macro environment, at least at current levels but realistically a further improvement is needed to support Business traffic on this route.

Oil prices remain constant, having declined sharply in the past 21 days approximately. With the latest IEA et al consumption forecasts, significant recovery beyond US$80 per barrel is unlikely in the near to medium term. Even if this were to occur, this would not be a problem for Aer Lingus becasue they have hedged a significant amount of their fuel requirements for fiscal 2011.

Let's be clear on one point though - Aer Lingus will NOT operate the DUB-SFO in a situation where Oil is in excess of the above mentioned prices.

Based upon current fare yields, Aer Lingus need approximately 60% occupancy of the Business cabin and 68% to 70% of the Economy cabin to ensure a B/E result on the DUB-SFO route, albeit with the slight likelihood of a small profit at these rates. We must not forget the softness of the market at the moment and the fact that Revenue per passenger on the DUB-SFO will be some 25%-30% lower than was previously paid before the route was suspended - this includes the Business cabin. If the route is to be re-activated, additional immediate Fixed Costs will be incurred and interest will have to be strong enough to at least support a B/E outcome.

Washington, in its previous form at least, operated directly by an Aer Lingus A330 is highly unlikely to re-occur. The demand is NOT there ex Ireland for regular flights, especially with sufficient services to BOS and JFK - just a one hour plane journey north. Regardless of it being the seat of government, the demand is not there for a reinstatement of IAD on a continuous basis with regular frequencies.

Expansion will be restrained in the near to medium term. In any expansion, a West Coast USA link is top priority for re-activation.

Ceteris paribus, I expect a re-launch/re-activation of a West Coast link within the medium term if expansion is to take place.

With regard to profitability. Some may not realise, Aer Lingus have already been profitable on various individual days during fiscal 2010 to date, something that was rarely achieved during 2009. The Ash crisis won't help and we are going to see a solid €35 million in exceptionals this year.

Weekly profitability and B/E results should be achieved during this coming June, July and August - fingers crossed for no further interruption to services. I've been saying for some time that I don't expect solid profitable results for Aer Lingus until Q2, 2011 and I would still stand by that assumption.

I echo the sentiments of Shamrock350 also in relation to Cork - the environment will have to recover hugely before we are to see any large scale expansion by Aer Lingus.

There's one key word - Demand.

Regards,

EI Premier

[Kavs8]

Well EI Premier,

If EI are going to be replacing Enda Corneille anytime soon i'l be advising them to appoint you! such detailed responces really do put the main facts in place....

Also i really do think that there will be no expansion until Q2, 3 2011 in Cork even if its Short-Haul !

But San Francisco/L.A. would be a nice re-introduction it was a pity it was suspended, although in turn for the right reasons.

[EI Premier]

Hi Kavs8,

Well thank you! If only, maybe some day!

I would very much agree with you regarding any expansion at Cork and any likely timeframe. Cork, in it's current guise works well for Aer Lingus and is a profitable base. Again, any increase in services or launch of new routes will have to see a significant pickup in the domestic and international economic environment.

With regard to profitability, Q1 is traditionally weak also for many carriers, including Aer Lingus so I think that Q2, 2011 is where we will see the true results of both cost consolidation and a slight improvement in the overall environment, but of course there will be profitable periods for the remainder of this year.

The next item on the agenda in the medium term will potentially be a revision of the Long Haul Airbus order placed in the Mannion era.

I think we would need to see growth in Real GNP of at least approximately 7-10% before any such expansion from Cork would be on the agenda.

Regards,

EI Premier

[Kavs8]

Winter schedule (full) for all EI bases to be released on Wednesday, June 2nd 2010. Fingers crossed Cork can be better off i.e. no fleet reduction/dest....

[840]

I doubt we'll see a fleet reduction, but with a Cork-based aircraft operating some Gatwick flights, we're either going to lose frequency or destinations.

Berlin is obviously the destination with the most difficulties. Birmingham and Manchester are most vulnerable to frequency lost, although the Tuesday evening service to Amsterdam doesn't seem to be bookable either.

Only if another Aer Lingus Regional aircraft turns up to operate some of the BHX and MAN flights will be not lose some service.

[fruitnfibre]

The ORK-BHX route has been a total farce for the last ten years (from a customer viewpoint). Multiple carriers, scattered schedules, even AL with their monopoly this year couldn't manage to get the timetable right with constant changes and tinkering.
At the risk of sounding controversial, surely Cork Airport could offer exclusive rights to one airline for a fixed period thus ensuring some stability for the long suffering flyer. (please don't start with the anti-competitive rants).
As per previous posts, I reckon this one will see props return to the winter schedule.

[840]

It is a mystery how BHX and MAN have been so messed around with.

Back in the day when it was a BA (Cityflyer?) service to MAN, there were three flights a day. True, they weren't the cheapest, but it meant people had a choice of when they would fly.

What BHX and MAN need is a simple 2 flights a day schedule, with one of the flights (probably the morning) operated by a prop. It would have the capacity about right and still give people the day return option.

In general some of the EI flight timings baffle me.

Seeing flights depart to Malaga and Faro (leisure destinations) on a Monday morning (prime business traveller time) and then having lunchtime services to Manchester and Birmingham (business destinations) at lunchtime (a time which doesn't suit business travellers, but is neutral for leisure passengers) makes no sense

[Kavs8]

I dont now how the schedule is going to work out to be honesed but lets wait till wednesday and see

[Kavs8]

FINNALLY ! CAA have paid tribute to FR for their announcement bit late though lol Cork Airport - Cork Airport Welcomes Announcement of New Seasonal Ryanair Services

[Charlie Roy]

surely Cork Airport could offer exclusive rights to one airline for a fixed period thus ensuring some stability for the long suffering flyer

Any airline from an EU member state can operate a route between any airports in EU (PSO routes excluded, blacklisted airlines excluded). You could have, for example, 20 airlines operating Cork to Birmingham and neither Cork Airport, The Dublin Airport Authority, The Irish Aviation Authority, The Civil Aviation Authority, nor Birmingham Airport could do nothing about it as long as there were slots enough.

[Kavs8]

Well its released and its not to good for Cork:

Alicante -> Seasonal
Amsterdam -> Twice daily on M-WTF-S with daily service on -T---S-
Barcelona -> -T-T-S-
Birmingham -> Not yet bookable
Bristol -> Daily
Cardiff -> M-WTF-S
Edinburgh -> Not yet bookable
Faro -> Seasonal
Geneva -> -----S- (Operated by DUB a/c)
Glasgow -> Daily
Lanzarote -> -T-T-S-
London/Gatwick -> Daily (operated on M-W-F-S by ORK a/c & operated on -T-T-S- by LGW a/c)
London/Heathrow -> 4 daily
Malaga -> M-W-F-S
Manchester -> Not yet bookable
Munich -> M---F-S
Paris/CDG -> Daily
Rome -> Seasonal
Tenerife -> --W--S-

At the moment only 3 EI A320 are showing... with the RE rotations it looks like their could be 3 EI A320 this winter & 2 RE ATR72 ... but MAN & BHX also could have the 4th EI A320 between the routes but im puzzled at this stage and sad to see FCO go seasonal as well as stund at the GVA rotation!

[irishbcn]

Barcelona is gone to Tu Th Sa and morning flights, disaster!!!!!!!!

[840]

I suspect you're right about it being 3 x A320 and 2 x ATR72.

The main surprise is probably the withdrawal of Rome.

The main irritation is Gatwick going down to a single lunchtime flight - not easy to compete with Ryanair if they aren't offering a more convenient product.

[Charlie Roy]

The main irritation is Gatwick going down to a single lunchtime flight - not easy to compete with Ryanair if they aren't offering a more convenient product.

Indeed, what's the point of competing with Ryanair on this route if they're just offering a once daily flight at similar times?! Either compete seriously or cut your losses. Aer Lingus continue to make this mistake time and time again.
In recent history having gone into competiton with Easyjet on routes out of Belfast and Gatwick and then after a year or two of money burning admitting defeat.
Whereas in Cork Aer Lingus have a history or being successful at coming on to a route and pushing the competitor off it (jetMagic, bmibaby) I don't believe they can win a battle with Ryanair for the Cork to Gatwick route given the measly one daily afternoon offering

[ryan2000]

Cork Schedule

This is a disaster for Cork Airport. Barcelona timings and days are awful. Rome gone, Geneva cut to a token 1 day week service.

Weekend City breaks now down to Munich, Paris or Amsterdam. No doubt this move will be dressed up as a good news story when EI Regional i.e Aer Arann announce Birmingham and Manchester as a new route.

Traffic at Cork Airport continues to decline. Down 15% ytd following a similar nose dive in 2009.

No amount of slick press releases can get around these sober facts.

[Provance]

I myself predict that we'll see DUB based aircraft doing W patterns from MAN and BHX

[Charlie Roy]

Manx2

In addition to Belfast via Galway, Manx2 will also offer Isle of Man via Galway on Fridays and Mondays (3 hour one way trip).

I myself predict that we'll see DUB based aircraft doing W patterns from MAN and BHX

The loaded winter timetables for DUB-BHX and DUB-MAN do not (currently) show a W pattern... I am very curious to know what's happening on these routes (and Edinburgh too for that matter).
I wonder is Rome now effectively "seasonal" or simply axed as has happened to other Aer Lingus Cork routes to capitals like Warsaw, Prague, Madrid, Berlin...

[ryan2000]

EI at Cork

Latest word is that the 320 will return in March. Time will tell I suppose. Interesting comment about the W's on Birmingham and Manchester. Can't see RE conceding Edinburgh to EI.

[Kavs8]

Guys dont forget...

the 4th EI A320 could be remaining it could operate as ....

06:20 - BHX (DEP/ORK) -> Mondays to Fridays.
09:25 - BHX (ARR/ORK) -> Mondays to Fridays.

06:30 - MAN (DEP/ORK) -> Saturdays & Sundays.
09:25 - MAN (ARR/ORK) -> Saturdays & Sundays.

10:00 - FCO (DEP/ORK) -> Mondays & Fridays.
17:10 - FCO (ARR/ORK) -> Mondays & Fridays.

10:20 - FAO (DEP/ORK) -> Wednesdays & Sundays.
16:35 - FAO (ARR/ORK) -> Wednesdays & Sundays.

11:00 - SXF (DEP/ORK) -> Tuesdays, Thursdays & Saturdays.
17:05 - SXF (ARR/ORK) -> Tuesdays, Thursdays & Saturdays.

18:00 - BHX (DEP/ORK) -> Saturdays & Sundays.
21:05 - BHX (ARR/ORK) -> Saturdays & Sundays.

18:00 - MAN (DEP/ORK) -> Mondays to Fridays.
21:05 - MAN (ARR/ORK) -> Mondays to Fridays.

[Charlie Roy]

Latest word is that the 320 will return in March.

I wouldn't pay much attention to "the latest word", what with March 2011 being a long way away, the evolving Aer Lingus Regional story, the possibility of the tourist tax being revised, the volatility of Ryanair's whims (scathing Cork's charges but then throwing in a 2nd aircraft for the summer), and most of all because "the latest word" has often promised the imminent arrival of an extra Aer Lingus A320 but now instead we're losing one.

Also, I personally wouldn't be surprised if MAN and BHX were to become Aer Lingus Regional routes.

All that said, maybe we're getting a bit carried away here, assuming we're losing Aer Lingus A320 number 4. Maybe its schedule just isn't loaded yet?
It could then operate Manchester, Birmingham, Rome, Alicante, Faro.