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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 13th Mar 2020, 12:51
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by derjodel View Post
This is deceiving.

Once you are confirmed, the probability of dying is 3.4% (or whatever the number currently is), because you are now in the tested cohort, and we know the mortality rate of the tested cohort.
Here are today's stats for State of Massachusetts:
Number of positive cases - 108
Number confirmed positive - 6
Number of pending positive - 102
Number of hospitalizations - 10
Number of investigations to determine if hospitalization is required - 9
Patients not hospitalized - 89
Number of deaths - 0
Total number of people subjected to quarantine - 1,083
Number in quarantine - 445
Number completed quarantine - 638

Interesting to note that of the 108 confirmed cases, 89 resulted from a Biogen conference, 5 from travel, 8 from medical center compromise, 13 under investigation.


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Old 13th Mar 2020, 12:51
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OPENDOOR View Post
https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death

World population is approximately 7.7 billion. The worst case infection rate has been quoted as 80% which would give 6.16 billion. If the mortality rate of 1% is correct then 61.6 million extra deaths.

I wish I hadn't looked now.
Not extra deaths, just attributed deaths. An already underlying death rate. would have taken us out any way. So show me the difference in total death rate for all causes in the next year and compare it to past years to make a point of how potent this really is.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 12:55
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by derjodel View Post
This is deceiving.

Once you are confirmed, the probability of dying is 3.4% (or whatever the number currently is), because you are now in the tested cohort, and we know the mortality rate of the tested cohort.
No, not deceiving. It just demonstrates that there are several legitimate ways of calculating "death rate" or "probability of dying", depending on what you choose as the denominator.

Last edited by DaveReidUK; 13th Mar 2020 at 13:13.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 13:04
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by derjodel View Post
0.5% is laughable. If the thing is not contained, it can be up to 10%. Look at Italy: 15k cases, 1k dead
Italy got into the unenviable situation that the health system was overwhelmed. Not to say that it cannot happen elsewhere. Once it is overwhelmed they have to turn to triage and that basically means that mortality goes up a lot as you simply stop helping those cases beyond a certain threshold, to preserve the available system for those where it makes most sense. Yes, that is usually done in war and not in a western country, but it can, and in this case, it did and does happen. Basically: Young and a good chance to survive? Get all the help you need. Old and very low chance? No more care, happy dieing.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 13:41
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Denti View Post
Italy got into the unenviable situation that the health system was overwhelmed. Not to say that it cannot happen elsewhere.
Italy will look like a walk in a park when shit hits the fan in the UK and USA.

Italy took extreme measures as soon as they had first confirmed case. UK and the USA are lagging far behind the reaction curve.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 14:14
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Denti View Post
Italy got into the unenviable situation that the health system was overwhelmed. Not to say that it cannot happen elsewhere. Once it is overwhelmed they have to turn to triage and that basically means that mortality goes up a lot as you simply stop helping those cases beyond a certain threshold, to preserve the available system for those where it makes most sense. Yes, that is usually done in war and not in a western country, but it can, and in this case, it did and does happen. Basically: Young and a good chance to survive? Get all the help you need. Old and very low chance? No more care, happy dieing.
Also remember that the number of detected cases vs. the actual number of cases will be very different. This will depend on the number of people tested for example. Look at the different test rates across different countries, it varies very widely.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 14:15
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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This link provides some interesting info: https://informationisbeautiful.net/v...w3X9GierRrd6w4
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 14:19
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lomapaseo View Post
Not extra deaths, just attributed deaths. An already underlying death rate. would have taken us out any way. So show me the difference in total death rate for all causes in the next year and compare it to past years to make a point of how potent this really is.
I sincerely hope I will be able to do that
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 14:40
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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Hi,

For credible information on the number of cases Johns Hopkins University has been coordinating global information:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Todays stats 13 March 20 2:15pm:
Confirmed cases: 137,066
Recovered: 69,643
Died: 5,069

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Old 13th Mar 2020, 15:05
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.
Or ... the UK's NHS is expecting 1/5 (20%) of the population to become infected. The WHO is reporting global mortality rates amongst infected individuals to be 3.4% (The Lancet has it higher at 5.7%).

For the UK alone, if the NHS & WHO numbers are correct, with a population of 66.4 million, that’s 13m infections with a mortality of over 451,000 (that's roughly the population of Cardiff, or Miami)

In the US, population 327 million, that equates to 65 million infections (equal to the entire population of the UK) and 2.2 million additional deaths (approx the population of Paris, or Houston).

Flu kills about 600,000 globally per annum.

But yes, wash your hands.

JAS

Last edited by Just a spotter; 13th Mar 2020 at 15:40.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 15:15
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by derjodel View Post
Italy will look like a walk in a park when shit hits the fan in the UK and USA.

Italy took extreme measures as soon as they had first confirmed case. UK and the USA are lagging far behind the reaction curve.
No - the USA is far behind.

The UK has consciously chosen to take a somewhat different approach: actually listening to the scientists rather than worrying about any forthcoming elections. They accept that people will die, but they also accept that most people will be exposed to the virus at some point soon, and actually want that to happen so that they get to the point of "herd immunity" and the risk of a second wave of infections is much reduced. The essence of the UK's strategy is to curtail people's quality of life and economic activity as little as possible whilst trying to manage levels to the point where the NHS is stressed, but not overwhelmed.

Personally, I approve, and shall Keep Calm and Carry On.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 15:17
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.
Your stats are mostly wrong. The one that is sort of accurate is that 1/5 of us will get it... 20%... that's the low end of figures with many saying as high as 60% but lets go with your 20%. The rest of the numbers are just wrong. 14% of cases require hospitalization. 5% of total cases require an ICU and a ventilator. 1% are dying (higher in countries where hospitals have been overrun like Italy where it is 3-4%). Let's take 20% of the US population... that's 65.5 million that will have it in a year... 9.2 million will be hospitalized and 655,000 will die. That's the US alone and again assumes only 1/5 will get it. That's using all the CDC and WHO's latest numbers. We only have 350,000 open hospital beds nationwide for the 9.2 million also, when the hospitals get overrun the mortality rate worldwide climbs from 1 to 3-4+% so it can get worse.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 15:46
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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Heard the official advise in germany, where testing is easy to come by and, as the originator of the most widely used test, has been available quite early. The health institute (Robert-Koch-Institute) expects that around 60 to 70% of the population will be infected as long as no vaccination is available as there is no immunity against it and that is the figure needed for herd immunity. That said, quite a large number of the infected will not display any symptoms, therefore will usually not be tested, generating quite a large hidden number of infected and spreading persons. Of those positively tested around 20% will develop into a severe case. Although germany has quite a large number of ICU beds available, current guidelines are there to flatten the curve and spread the bulk of the severe cases over a longer time (but a lower number at any given time). That said, due to its federal structure central government has only limited powers to enforce any of the advise, it has to be put into action within any of the states individually.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 16:45
  #54 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
As bad news arrive everyday , almost every hour now and the endemic peak still weeks or months away , who is strong enough to overcome the storm and how our industry will look like 6 moths from now?
Not only crews and airlines but our whole industry
.
For instance with Boeing share price around 150 USD ,today a drop of 70% in a few months, can the commercial division survive ?
(My bold on the quote)
ATC Watcher's topic is about the airlines industry, not about human death rate stats hamster wheel...
There is already a pretty long topic about it on Jetblast.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 16:51
  #55 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Good Business Sense View Post
FACT - Businesses everywhere, particularly airlines, still managing to sell their services and products - sale goes through credit card and it's not coming back from the banks. All cost, no income. The economic death spiral starts - we should have jailed all of them in 2008.
Jail wasn't good enough for those w**kers!
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 16:55
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?
I do not know how, but among survival ones will be Alitalia.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 17:12
  #57 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ehwatezedoing View Post
(My bold on the quote)
ATC Watcher's topic is about the airlines industry, not about human death rate stats hamster wheel...
There is already a pretty long topic about it on Jetblast.
Thanks ,ehwatezedoing , exactly . Maybe my thread title was poorly phrased as when I mean "survive" I mean who will still be there with a job in 6 months , and which /how aviation business will overcome the next 6 months.
If we want to discuss statistics , plenty of web sites giving us that .
Singapurcanac :
among survival ones will be Alitalia.
I like your sense of humor , but you probably are right ,they are likely to get massive State aid and survive us all. You have to admire Italians sense of resilience ..

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Old 13th Mar 2020, 17:40
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Denti View Post
Heard the official advise in germany, where testing is easy to come by and, as the originator of the most widely used test, has been available quite early. The health institute (Robert-Koch-Institute) expects that around 60 to 70% of the population will be infected as long as no vaccination is available as there is no immunity against it and that is the figure needed for herd immunity. That said, quite a large number of the infected will not display any symptoms, therefore will usually not be tested, generating quite a large hidden number of infected and spreading persons. Of those positively tested around 20% will develop into a severe case.
Denti's talking epidemiology

Covid19 spreads like the common cold; so, a strong probability just about all of us will be exposed to it over the next few years. Identified cases tend to be the severe ones, but at least that denominator (positive tests) is known. Silent infections are likely a much larger denominator that we don't really know at present.

As for a vaccine, they've been trying for many decades to develop one against a fellow coronavirus, the common cold.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 17:43
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Does anyone know what's happening at Air France? Traditionally, an exceptionally secure and strong workforce.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 18:00
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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This is what bothers me about the herd immunity plan.

Suppose the UK has 10,000 ICU beds. Suppose each person with corona virus who needs one takes up 5 days.

Then there can be 2000 new ICU admissions per day.

If the fraction of people with the virus who end up needing an ICU bed is 5%, that means the infection rate has to be kept below 40,000 per day.

To get to herd immunity in the UK, 60% of people have to get the virus, around 40 million people.

To do this without overwhelming the NHS then takes 1000 days, or roughly three years.

But the idea is to get herd immunity in place by the Autumn.

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