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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 13th Mar 2020, 08:40
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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

As bad news arrive everyday , almost every hour now and the endemic peak still weeks or months away , who is strong enough to overcome the storm and how our industry will look like 6 moths from now?
Not only crews and airlines but our whole industry .
For instance with Boeing share price around 150 USD ,today a drop of 70% in a few months, can the commercial division survive ?
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 08:49
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Oh suuure; if the Boeing goes belly up, it will be all due to the 2019. SARS strain and in no way related to the fact America's finest narrowbody is has been grounded for a year, with quite poor chances of ever being allowed to fly again.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 08:53
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Even if it can fly, will airlines still want to proceed or ditch their order on the basis of late delivery...
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 08:58
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According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 09:10
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Yes, let’s sit and watch who’s dying, shall we? Like rubbernecking at an accident. Everybody can think of some candidates in bad shape, but there will be surprises too. Having a discussion who will and who won’t is bad taste in my book. Enough people, in almost ALL companies, will be severely worried at the moment.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 09:13
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Originally Posted by davidjpowell View Post
Even if it can fly
Sure she can fly. She just needs three small items fixed: proper SAS instead of STS, proper stick pusher instead of MCAS and whole world willing to dial the certification criteria down to 1960s standards. Piece of cake in today's world, Naomi Klein would observe.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 09:27
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Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.
We survived SARs and a number of world wars, but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
May I suggest a couple of things:
- Turn off your phone.
- Sell your TV.
- Look at the people around you for what they are.
Then in six months when your still alive and wasting precious oxygen, consider making an apology for being a selfish pri!ck (if it's within your capability).

ATC Watcher, I respect most of your posts but I feel this time you are listening to the idiot brigade that now run our media and finance. In time you will see what I see.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 09:30
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Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.
We survived SARs and a number of world wars, but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
May I suggest a couple of things:
- Turn off your phone.
- Sell your TV.
- Look at the people around you for what they are.
Then in six months when your still alive and wasting precious oxygen, consider making an apology for being a selfish pri!ck (if it's within your capability).

And this statement is supposed to help or solve problems?
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 09:32
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Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.
Yes. 20k have died since September 2019 for flu, and 5k have died of Corona since January 2020. Of those 5k, 1k in Italy in the past 3 weeks alone. You people really, really don't understand exponential growth and the fact that in the most of the world the epidemy has only just started.

Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.
Everybody is /r/iamverysmart about this until they are hit hard. Look at Italy, look at the stories doctors are telling first hand. Who do you think knows something about it? An armrest chair virologist or somebody who is right there, in the cockpit so to speak?

Also, I really wonder what study this guy quoted or used as a basis for his claim? Because you know, if it were so innocent, then how come the Chinese are literary welding people's doors to keep them inside and Italians are not accepting anyone under 60 into the intensive care - literary if you are over 60 you are on your own, left to die. And the cutoff age is getting lower.

But sure, while some of us isolate, go ahead and make corona parties to expose yourself to it and get immune... we'll collect your bodies in a few months as the evolutionary process prunes the unfit.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 09:40
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And this statement is supposed to help or solve problems?
Yes it does. When Tom Hanks recovers from his unfortunate spell with the virus then the idiot brigade will exploit it for all it's worth and completely ignore the doom they were peddling beforehand, the world will then return to normal as if nothing happened (according to them).

Pick that time on the sharemarket and you will do well.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 09:45
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The Banks

FACT - Businesses everywhere, particularly airlines, still managing to sell their services and products - sale goes through credit card and it's not coming back from the banks. All cost, no income. The economic death spiral starts - we should have jailed all of them in 2008.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 09:50
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Hmmmmm, I think ATC Watcher may have been referring to which parts of the industry will survive rather then individuals. Its a very worrying time, right across the board. The USA will be a big risk without universal healthcare, there could be a huge outbreak in that country, which will have an impact on the domestic and international operators, alongside many of the OEMs as well.


Be nice people, as the WHO states, we are all in this together.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 10:02
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Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.
So what is the scientific base that multi vitamins and minerals wil stop this pandemic? Your maths are completely incorrect. I do not even know where to start.

There will be an exponential growth every 6 days until drastic measures are taken that prevent countries healthcare systems to collapse. Yes, the majority of the symptoms are mild. However, 20% still require medical treatment. Hospitals in Italy are overflowing and medical personnel is performing triage.

They have to chose who lives and dies. Before, people above 80, now 60 wil not be admitted. Where does this stop if if beds and material are depleted? Do you think the WHO or doctors in countries as Italy are “merely” panicking?

This has nothing to do with panicking but being rational about the impact of this virus. Being naļeve does not help. Taking vitamins and minerals do not help. Social distancing helps. Please, please, please take 25 minutes the read the article below to fully understand what will happen if we do not mitigate the consequences starting right now.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 10:18
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Whow, do not put words in my post that I did not use. I am not looking at counting bodies and collecting old airlines models.. This is not the Corona virus that will not change things on its own , It , like every accident a combination of factors . the MAX and the corona effect on airlines,for Boeing ( a lot of airlines will at best defer at worst cancel orders , a few will no longer exist when this is over , etc..)
The virus seems to have the same effect to the people as to the airlines, the old/weak ones with pre-condition illness will die first .And since there were quite a few of them before this virus, that will change a lot for all of us here.

If I take my branch , ATC, most of the ANSPs today are privatized or run on separate budgets and depend on airlines paying fees, with less of them flying around, less fees coming in , halving the North Atlantic traffic for instance at flip of a tweet will have huge financial implications. . .They can continue to pay salaries and maintain facilities for some time but after that ? Stopping training and forcing people to retire early ? we did that after 9/11 and less in 2008, and we are still paying the bill as staff shortages are huge.
Same in most of the air travel industry . We could be crippling our industry for years to come ..

As to switching off my phone and not listening to the news. I am not a fan of the ostrich. And absolutely , yes we are all in this together...
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 10:20
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Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.
We survived SARs and a number of world wars, but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
May I suggest a couple of things:
- Turn off your phone.
- Sell your TV.
- Look at the people around you for what they are.
Then in six months when your still alive and wasting precious oxygen, consider making an apology for being a selfish pri!ck (if it's within your capability).

ATC Watcher, I respect most of your posts but I feel this time you are listening to the idiot brigade that now run our media and finance. In time you will see what I see.
You should probably get over yourself. You realize that the majority of those running the countries and making decisions in regards to this crisis are not millennials. Most of them are still of the baby boom generation.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 10:30
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Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
Yes it does. When Tom Hanks recovers from his unfortunate spell with the virus then the idiot brigade will exploit it for all it's worth and completely ignore the doom they were peddling beforehand, the world will then return to normal as if nothing happened (according to them).

Pick that time on the sharemarket and you will do well.
Hand that man a beer 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 10:40
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ATC Watcher, apologies if you thought I put words in your mouth, that was not the intention. My point is (and was) that humans are a resilient bunch, most of us will heed the warnings, apply common sense and will take the necessary precautions, and lo and behold, will survive. But we will do it without all the current media frenzy on the subject which is inducing mass hysteria causing the foolish and greedy to hoard essential supplies - which is precisely my beef. The current situation may be serious, but it is not permanent if we all behave the right way. Unfortunately the industries of self interest - media and finance - are not helping the issue.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 10:42
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How many have already recovered?

Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
When Tom Hanks recovers from his unfortunate spell with the virus then the idiot brigade will exploit it for all it's worth and completely ignore the doom they were peddling beforehand, the world will then return to normal as if nothing happened (according to them).
Are there any stats on the numbers already well?

Counting the totals is all very well but at some point the sick come out the other side as well. Then go back to work as a rolling 20% of a sick working population. 1 in 5 is not that big a number if you look at your own work place.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 10:46
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But unfortunately what you have failed to factor in is just how infectious Covid-19 is. With Western European countries such as Germany now saying - based on their best available scientific advice - that 70% or more of their population may get infected this year it doesn't take a maths genius to work out that in Germany this would mean a 0.5% fatality rate would result in 400,000 deaths.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:00
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Originally Posted by Flyingmole View Post
But unfortunately what you have failed to factor in is just how infectious Covid-19 is. With Western European countries such as Germany now saying - based on their best available scientific advice - that 70% or more of their population may get infected this year it doesn't take a maths genius to work out that in Germany this would mean a 0.5% fatality rate would result in 400,000 deaths.
0.5% is laughable. If the thing is not contained, it can be up to 10%. Look at Italy: 15k cases, 1k dead!

We need to contain this to protect healthcare capacity:
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