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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 19th Mar 2020, 15:59
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
2-3 months of confinement at home ,as it looks like we will all soon or later be confronted with, will give time for people to look into their priorities. I doubt that when this over everyone will have the wish to travel for leisure a few times a year , or the money for it ..
It will also dramatically increase cases of domestic violence injuries and deaths.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 16:18
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Smile

Originally Posted by Lord Farringdon View Post
No this isn't a B737 Max FDR readout. But the outcome for Boeing looks to be shaping up to be the same.

Lordy.

It's not junk bond, but, ouch. Presumably those that claim credit on the way up continue their claim to the Split S?
It's heading towards a buying opportunity. Not quite yet, but not far off. Check out their cash per share, and the value of their programa that aren't in strife. That takes a bit more digging, they have had a year to remember.

Its one of the few times that a stock market ticker has had need of a GPWS Mode I warning...



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Old 19th Mar 2020, 16:22
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Originally Posted by TACHO View Post
Sorry I was talking cross purposes there. What I was trying to say is, that at the moment, the industry is effectively critically sick. Any operator who survives this will be incredibly lucky. The reason for this however is not the virus. At least it was not initially. It is as a result of the public and media's response to the virus. Which in turn has damaged the economy. This is not a viral problem, but an economic one.

Further to my point I know of one (major) airline that is not just halting its operation, but trying its hardest, not to support its staff, but adding long term draconian changes to thier terms and conditions that are little more than opportunism whilst the chips are down. It has nothing whatsoever to do with Corona, it is in fact asking its staff to fund its recovery and make life cheaper whilst simultaneously pleading poverty to the government for a handout.... All the while it has data on its website, effectively boasting about how much spare cash it has... they want to preserve their profit at great cost to their workers, who are already struggling, and that isn't right. Socialism only exists in the upper echelons of business, beneath that it's still very much capitalist.

In summary I think the industry will be changed beyond recognition by the end. However Corona was merely the spark that ignited the absolute dumpster fire that is our economy, the rules of our economy, and how the world and business in particular operated. Corona wasn't the reason, all it has served is to highlight how already fragile, broken, corrupt and useless the system already was
true, and not valid only for aviation, but other fields of industry. And it is getting worse in the future...SARS is just a beginning....nobody knows for instance what creatures from the past are waiting in the permafrost...which is melting...

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...r-covid-19-aoe

and to people who are dissmissing Covid-19 death rate - SARS Cov-2 is spreading much faster and aggresivly as influenza virus and can bring people with underlaying conditions to their premature death. Comparing flu with SARS spread is just plainly mad and irresponsible.
Imagine SARS type virus spread with EBOLA, where deat rate is 90%...

Last edited by kontrolor; 19th Mar 2020 at 16:50.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 16:42
  #244 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by TACHO View Post

In closing I will add, I'm not worried about the lack of toilet paper on the shelves. The daily mail seems to have no problem making extra prints to satisfy the public appetite, and nails for the bathroom are still readily available. I'll just have to make sure the print doesn't stick, or I'll end up with more sh!t than I started with.

Goodnight all and for those of you actually in the industry, I genuinely wish you nothing but the best.
My sides are aching from laughter. Thanks T.

I've been looking at the TV while Fox news is running and trying to find a way to supplement the toilet paper scarcity.

Odd thing,... toilet paper?

really?

I mean to say, if you do a warm fuzzies leadership vignette, and you have 12 things to take to the desert Island, I'm sorry, toilet paper doesn't get a mention. I'll take the girl, the $5 note, the fillet mignon, the Cupano Brunello di Montalcino, 2002, the satphone, the solar still, probably an FN 5.7, a GPS, a piezo lighter, and a double sleeping bag. And a girl, and flares. Toilet paper is not on the list. So we get a bug, admittedly a rather nasty, escape the sandpit type of bug, that doesn't usually cause dysentery, If I have double pneumonia, the last of my worries is a clean butt. If I have septicaemia, the problem is on the inside, not on the outside.. If my cat sees the toilet paper roll, then it becomes discombobulated, and more of a model of fractal geometry at play... Nope.... not sure what the fuss is about. If they had gone for the biltong first, then I would indeed be worried.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 16:52
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toilet paper is for many people psychological link to civilisation. Ergo - no toilet paper = end of civilization.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 18:52
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Not IMHO. When I arrived in North Africa, there wasn't a toilet roll in sight. However we had bdays?. There was a plastic jug full of water within easy reach. That, was better than smearing sh&t all over your backside, using toilet paper. The classy ones had copper tubing, pointed at your backside, with a valve. Get the pressure right and your you know what, in the right position, it was quiet a thrilling experience.

Last edited by Dan_Brown; 19th Mar 2020 at 20:18.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 20:31
  #247 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TACHO View Post
Sorry I was talking cross purposes there. What I was trying to say is, that at the moment, the industry is effectively critically sick. Any operator who survives this will be incredibly lucky. The reason for this however is not the virus. At least it was not initially. It is as a result of the public and media's response to the virus. Which in turn has damaged the economy. This is not a viral problem, but an economic one.

Further to my point I know of one (major) airline that is not just halting its operation, but trying its hardest, not to support its staff, but adding long term draconian changes to thier terms and conditions that are little more than opportunism whilst the chips are down. It has nothing whatsoever to do with Corona, it is in fact asking its staff to fund its recovery and make life cheaper whilst simultaneously pleading poverty to the government for a handout.... All the while it has data on its website, effectively boasting about how much spare cash it has... they want to preserve their profit at great cost to their workers, who are already struggling, and that isn't right. Socialism only exists in the upper echelons of business, beneath that it's still very much capitalist.

In summary I think the industry will be changed beyond recognition by the end. However Corona was merely the spark that ignited the absolute dumpster fire that is our economy, the rules of our economy, and how the world and business in particular operated. Corona wasn't the reason, all it has served is to highlight how already fragile, broken, corrupt and useless the system already was
Logging in for the first time in years to applaud this post. An excellent summary, well done.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 20:45
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Originally Posted by Tick Tock Man View Post
Logging in for the first time in years to applaud this post. An excellent summary, well done.
Hear hear.

This version of capitalism does not work - too cut throat & loaded against employees - past & present (pensions?)

Mind Flightradar24 appears busy as ever!

Last edited by covec; 19th Mar 2020 at 23:04.
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Old 19th Mar 2020, 23:04
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Originally Posted by Tick Tock Man View Post
Logging in for the first time in years to applaud this post. An excellent summary, well done.
Absolutely spot on. There must be a change.
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 06:49
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If you want a better place to live then embrace change!
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 08:31
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The reason for this however is not the virus. At least it was not initially. It is as a result of the public and media's response to the virus. Which in turn has damaged the economy.

Have to disagree. Didn't it start in China without free media western style, without public debate and still lockdowns and production stops?
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 09:03
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What we have is not capitalism but really pusedo socialism. The whole idea of capitalism is that you fail, not get a government bailout nor Chapter 11 protection.

If there was no bailouts, no chapter 11 and companies failed properly it would be a very different world.

Noone in big business is a real capitalist it is to hard core for them.
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 09:05
  #253 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
Have to disagree. Didn't it start in China without free media western style, without public debate and still lockdowns and production stops?
It did start in China but once awareness of it escaped those confines and western broadcast and later social media got hold of it the process began..

I do agree with Tacho's post, however it will be interesting to how aviation recovers from this.

People have short memories and I bet some are already thinking that when this is all over and they have escaped from "lockdown" they will reward themselves by catching up on stag do's in Riga or hopping across the Atlantic for a weekend of Christmas shopping (Christmas 2021 at the very earliest IMHO) in New York..



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Old 20th Mar 2020, 09:18
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This is an eye opener. Capitalism's dirty secrets presented by a billionaire and beneficiary of the broken system. He talks about how modern Economics is not something something you can learn from a text book. It is a pseudoscience created by greedy people with power and influence over government and media and who do their best to make any alternative look like pure evil. Please watch to the end.
Just another Billionare building a moat around his wealth stopping people starting from nothing to being independently wealthy. Also alot of blurring of terms from what true free market ideas represent.
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 12:16
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Has this chaos really just served to expose just how utterly dependant the ‘free’ world is on the totally un free Chinese ?? Perhaps that is a lesson well worth learning, before we get cut off for real!
David
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 13:17
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
Have to disagree. Didn't it start in China without free media western style, without public debate and still lockdowns and production stops?

Yes the virus started in China. As my post above says quite clearly, The Virus itself isn't the problem facing the world. This is now an economic problem. People are being laid off left right and centre not because they are sick (globally as a percentage the cases are actually very low), they are being laid off because the world and joe public is afraid of being sick. This has been caused purely by the media and peoples hysteria. To quote a wise man that I know. "They've kicked the snowball down the hill, and now have no way of stopping it". The media have given a germ a name, turned it into an entity and then released it. If no one had heard of corona, and there was just another type of 'flu' going around. Would we have known any different? Would the shelves be empty of toilet paper and other goods? The answer is no. It has become a self sustaining creature, that feeds on headlines... and I suspect the deaths globally caused by stress, depression and panic will eventually far outweigh those caused directly by the virus.

China is a different ball game. For the following reasons:

As I am sure you see aware it has a huge population, the normal rules of statistics lead to figures which sound big, but on a 'chinese' scale are not. I'll give you an easy example. If you have a skill or talent or condition that is 'one in a million'... in China there is, statistically, a thousand people exactly like you. So the 'outbreak' reported from china was hardly the catastrophe they were pushing.

Secondly China is a one off in the way it deals with things. The use of terms such as 'lockdown' as an effective means of dealing with the virus, might very well work in a society that is already oppressed and the individual only exists 'for the good of the state'... if we are going to copy china then let's get a few hospitals built in a week, I know I'm not doing anything else at the moment (I haven't got so much as a sniffle at the moment by the way, and I'm willing to make you a bet that neither have you). Did china face the problems of having a run (pun intended) on toilet paper and people decimating the shelves? Were people put out of work in china? Did their economy, whilst they were nailing shut their front door, say, 'oh by the way you still have to pay your landlord the rent'?

Thirdly, China's life blood is its manpower as a source of cheap labour. It is literally people powered. If there is even a small loss of production due to a mass cold, then the financial ramifications on economies of scale are colossal. They attempted to isolate it, not because of its fatality (which is actually very small). But because of its potential to spread in a very dense and overpopulated region that deals with vast amounts of production. I'm not going to add statistics here, but what I will say is if a percentage of a small number cant work, it isnt a big deal. If a percentage of a large number cant work, in a country that's life blood is the people churning out goods, then it is. They would have had the same reaction and taken the same measures if it was a bad case of gastric flu.

The fact that it originated in China with its closed media bears little significance, I dont understand your point. Western nations still report on global events and present their own 'spin' on it. The media in the UK still reported it, and as early as January they have been slowly ramping up the hysteria. To give a real life example BBC radio 1 'newsbeat' had an attention grabbing headline that announced 'Corona virus cases in Britain increase by one third'... yet when you listen to the report, which came at a stage where I think around 12 people in the UK were confirmed cases, it basically stated that 3 or 4 Britain's had returned back to the uk, after being diagnosed and isolated with corona elsewhere... they were not newly infected, and whilst statistically the number of cases on British soil had increased, the headline didn't match the facts.

To give you another example, The media have bandied around terms like 'outbreak' with reckless abandon (it was written in solid red on the front page of our national rag)... and perhaps more disgustingly 'superspreader' to describe a man who 'infected' other people. This 'superspreader' was so very much on deaths door with this plague like, flesh eating, zombie making, virus... that he went skiing! And then he so cruelly managed to infect his friends. I am almost certain that none of them died, but they may have had quite a bad hangover from the apres.

Anyway apologies for the long post. I'm off work at the moment you see, so need something to do. My new position won't take me in the current climate and my old position is also gone. As a now former captain, I'm about to apply for a job in a supermarket, as the economy still dictates that I must still pay my bills, and regardless of the 'dangers' of this virus, it seems that whilst we aren't allowed to go to the pub or fly in an aeroplane, it still is perfectly socially acceptable for the great unwashed to congregate en masse, in order to pillage the shelves to ensure they are better off than their neighbour... plenty of demand there. This is the true cost, symptom and infection of the 'corona virus'... not the sickness.

Stay well all.
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 13:37
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Originally Posted by The AvgasDinosaur View Post
Has this chaos really just served to expose just how utterly dependant the ‘free’ world is on the totally un free Chinese ??
Some people are thinking about that question. I have my doubts whether anything will actually change...the influence of money being what it is:

“When the virus peters out and the panic fades, China may be permanently rebranded and recalibrated by the world at large. Its trading partners will trust it far less to honor any commitments or to abide by any international agreements.”


“Some assembly plants will be shut down. Nations will be less trusting to outsource key industries to Chinese companies.”




https://www.amgreatness.com/2020/03/...de-down-world/


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Old 20th Mar 2020, 14:01
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Originally Posted by The AvgasDinosaur View Post
Has this chaos really just served to expose just how utterly dependant the ‘free’ world is on the totally un free Chinese ?? Perhaps that is a lesson well worth learning, before we get cut off for real!
David
That is Trump.s view but not the liberals, Dems, Labour Conservative etc. Too many senior Tories have their snouts in the Chinese trough. Labour and the Dems love China especially Biden.
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 14:09
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Well said TACHO , I totally agree. But unfortunately we are living in a (social)media driven world where an absolute majority relies and expects
somebody to tell them what to do and how to behave in preference of doing their own bit of critical thinking and research. And I see that media knows it and absolutely thrives on it! Just look at all those red flashing headlines and dedicated LIVE UPDATES pages everywhere where some random otherwise little known person finally gets his/her 5 minutes of fame yelling the "The End is Nigh". I feel as if it gives them a power trip of kind, so they sensationalise every aspect of information and then feed it to the public to get another high and boost their feeling of self-importance. On BBC, for example, not once have I seen an article with a level-headed analysis of the situation from likes of Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg or similar experts. Just fear-porn and 42 how-to different guides on how to wash your hands properly.
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Old 20th Mar 2020, 15:10
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British and American economic shutdowns for Covid-19 virus

(Thanks TACHO)

NPR this am had Dr. John Ionides, Stanford University Professor. Maybe a summary sentence of his short presentation was: "If you ruin the economy, that will result in millions of people dying for other reasons."
(The clip said he would be on at greater length later.)

California and Pennsylvania governors just shut down all "non-essential" businesses. In PA this includes "State Stores," which are the only places all spirits are sold. Also, a large fraction or majority of the wine, since they were the only source until recently. So wine drinkers will head for the large food stores where they will be exposed to orders of magnitude more people for much longer time periods. (State Store customers seem to know what they want and don't spend much time procuring it.) For spirits, it will be road trips to surrounding states...interacting at rest, fuel and food stops with other travelers.

(State Store profits and wine&spirit taxes are also a large source of State income, where sales and income taxes will decline, and unemployment benefits and special expenses will increase, in this economic recession.)


Last edited by dogsridewith; 20th Mar 2020 at 15:42.
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