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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:03
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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And note that Germans do some creative statistics there.
If you had asthma and got COVID19 and then died - they count you as asthma death.
So reality is muuuch worse there.


&
Sholayo is offline  
Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:05
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Flyingmole View Post
But unfortunately what you have failed to factor in is just how infectious Covid-19 is. With Western European countries such as Germany now saying - based on their best available scientific advice - that 70% or more of their population may get infected this year it doesn't take a maths genius to work out that in Germany this would mean a 0.5% fatality rate would result in 400,000 deaths.
I'll take my chances with that rate any day.

Like aviation that keeps on growing, the greater the population at risk, the greater the number affected by a single cause. What is needed is the relative contribution of a single cause over a fixed period of time, compared to the basic underlying risk of dying from any cause, known or unknown.

Jet Blast
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:05
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Are there any stats on the numbers already well?
I found this site to be interesting https://www.worldometers.info/corona...navirus-cases/

The last graph (outcome of cases) is compelling.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:08
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.
Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.

Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too...
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:24
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz View Post
Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.

Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too...
I'm not one of those that say "it's just a flu". However, the mortality rate is most likely nowhere near as high as you suggest. Your numbers are only based on known infections. It is fair to assume that there are lot's more unknown infections which will bring down the mortality rate a lot. My guess based on everything I have read is to not more than 1%

Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:28
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz View Post
Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.

Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too...
Did Al Gore do your modeling for that?

1% is the going rate - UK CMO

Take a look at the facts about both topics
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:29
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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In responce to the question "Who will still be here in 6 months". My answer,...Most of us...But with almost eight billion humans on this world the numbers will still be huge.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:32
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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Wait til this hits the 3rd world... Italy can't cope, imagine some parts of Africa...
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:36
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Islandlad View Post
Did Al Gore do your modeling for that?

1% is the going rate - UK CMO

Take a look at the facts about both topics
Please first read the article from the link before spreading partially incorrect statements. Especially the UK is very good at downplaying this at the moment. The 0.5-1% number is due to the fact that we are at the very beginning of this pandemic. Someone infected today will die in approx. 2 weeks. Therefore the current number of deaths is hardly correct to paint a correct picture. So is the number of people infected. The amounts are much higher than known.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:37
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 733driver View Post
I'm not one of those that say "it's just a flu". However, the mortality rate is most likely nowhere near as high as you suggest. Your numbers are only based on known infections. It is fair to assume that there are lot's more unknown infections which will bring down the mortality rate a lot. My guess based on everything I have read is to not more than 1%

Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.
And, of course, your figures are based on "My Guess"- not the experts whose job it is to provide these figures.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:40
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Islandlad View Post
Did Al Gore do your modeling for that?

1% is the going rate - UK CMO

Take a look at the facts about both topics
But 1% is WAY lowball

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...-fatality-rate

Yeah, the CMO says no problem-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ave-it-says-pm

Facts on that other matter

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-than-in-1990s
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:51
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz View Post
A good point but he was referring to a society reacting to keep the peak as low as possible with planned interventions.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:53
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 733driver View Post
I'm not one of those that say "it's just a flu". However, the mortality rate is most likely nowhere near as high as you suggest. Your numbers are only based on known infections. It is fair to assume that there are lot's more unknown infections which will bring down the mortality rate a lot. My guess based on everything I have read is to not more than 1%

Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.
The state I work in has declared emergency - unless you are very high risk or showing severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, you are not tested to confirm COVID - not enough test kits to go around. So likely, you are correct that the mortality rate is quite a bit lower then the numbers being spouted.
b1lanc is online now  
Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:57
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz View Post
And, of course, your figures are based on "My Guess"- not the experts whose job it is to provide these figures.
Wrong: My "guess" based on expert opinion I have read. I'm just making their bets guess my best guess. We do know the number of deaths but we (including the experts) can only guess the number of those infected. It's almost certain that many more people are invected but have not been tested.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:58
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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The U.K. CMO is saying that between 5000 to 10000 people in the IK have the virus, very few are confirmed cases. Like other countries the confirmed cases are the “tip of the iceberg”. So working on that premiss the death rate is about .7%.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 12:04
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jonty View Post
The U.K. CMO is saying that between 5000 to 10000 people in the IK have the virus, very few are confirmed cases. Like other countries the confirmed cases are the “tip of the iceberg”. So working on that premiss the death rate is about .7%.
This is deceiving.

Once you are confirmed, the probability of dying is 3.4% (or whatever the number currently is), because you are now in the tested cohort, and we know the mortality rate of the tested cohort.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 12:07
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 733driver View Post
Wrong: My "guess" based on expert opinion I have read. I'm just making their bets guess my best guess. We do know the number of deaths but we (including the experts) can only guess the number of those infected. It's almost certain that many more people are invected but have not been tested.
Almost certainly true with flu also,
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 12:26
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.... but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
Those would be the same millennials who are unlikely to actually die of this, right? The ones with a very low mortality rate? Unlike all the old farts who are moaning about the millennials...
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 12:30
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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In 2017, there were 56 million deaths globally
https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death

World population is approximately 7.7 billion. The worst case infection rate has been quoted as 80% which would give 6.16 billion. If the mortality rate of 1% is correct then 61.6 million extra deaths.

I wish I hadn't looked now.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 12:40
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wizofoz View Post
Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.

Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too...
You have an extra zero in there. .1% to 3.4% is 34x.
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