Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Flight Deck Forums > Terms and Endearment
Reload this Page >

Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Terms and Endearment The forum the bean counters hoped would never happen. Your news on pay, rostering, allowances, extras and negotiations where you work - scheduled, charter or contract.

Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 13th Mar 2020, 18:10
  #61 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Somewhere cold
Posts: 38
This thread should be taken as a prime example of restricting ourselves to what we do best, surreptitiously farting during night flights and moaning about house prices, audi drivers and our awful rosters.
Falling_Penguin is offline  
Old 13th Mar 2020, 18:49
  #62 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Tring, UK
Posts: 1,475
If/when we get to the point that a large proportion of people have had it and been asymptomatic/recovered/died, there wonít be a need to restrict travel as itíll be everywhere. Itíll need something to kick-start aviation again, like after 9/11...
FullWings is offline  
Old 13th Mar 2020, 18:49
  #63 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: gatwick
Age: 47
Posts: 70
Originally Posted by Paul852 View Post
No - the USA is far behind.

The UK has consciously chosen to take a somewhat different approach: actually listening to the scientists rather than worrying about any forthcoming elections. They accept that people will die, but they also accept that most people will be exposed to the virus at some point soon, and actually want that to happen so that they get to the point of "herd immunity" and the risk of a second wave of infections is much reduced. The essence of the UK's strategy is to curtail people's quality of life and economic activity as little as possible whilst trying to manage levels to the point where the NHS is stressed, but not overwhelmed.

Personally, I approve, and shall Keep Calm and Carry On.
oh dear, manage the NHS stress levels, right at this moment there are no ICU availability in the north of England. Well that was around 16.30. The NHS which is one of the very best services in the world is totally stressed now never mind any additional demand. Realistically please expect, major mortality rates in the UK. We all on here are worried and so concerned with our business appear to disregard the negative effects upon the population of significant deaths, that are inevitable.
rotorwills is offline  
Old 13th Mar 2020, 20:13
  #64 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: I wouldn't know.
Posts: 4,126
Originally Posted by rotorwills View Post
The NHS which is one of the very best services in the world is totally stressed now never mind any additional demand. Realistically please expect, major mortality rates in the UK. We all on here are worried and so concerned with our business appear to disregard the negative effects upon the population of significant deaths, that are inevitable.
The NHS is a great service, however after 10 years of austerity and chronic underfunding, not in a good shape. Compared to other countries in Europe the number of ICU beds per 100.000 people, while varying per region of course, is even on an average level extremely low. The UK has 6.6, France 9.7, Italy (!) 12.5 and Germany 29.2. Currently the number of cases in the UK are still very low, once it starts to spread in earnest, it will be very interesting indeed.
Denti is offline  
Old 13th Mar 2020, 20:58
  #65 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Back on The Island.
Posts: 468
I seem to remember, possibly in Tony B'Liar's time that the number of active hospital beds were reduced to improve the NHS. Something to do with management efficiency. Does anyone else remember this? I lived in Europe then but certain I have the correct thread... in hope... having lost it now.
zed3 is offline  
Old 13th Mar 2020, 22:08
  #66 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Sydney
Posts: 58
Originally Posted by Falling_Penguin View Post
This thread should be taken as a prime example of restricting ourselves to what we do best, surreptitiously farting during night flights and moaning about house prices, audi drivers and our awful rosters.
The most truthful reply in this thread. But then again, this place is no different to the rest of the internet, just like the non-millennial are no different to the millennials...
Jabberwocky82 is offline  
Old 13th Mar 2020, 22:12
  #67 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: UK
Posts: 30
Look, guys, testing is only being used to advise clinical procedures. It's not being done for statistical purposes - they're not out to test the mild cases! Only the potentially problematic ones, so that it can inform care decisions. The real mortality is found in China & South Korea, who have gotten over the curve and have started testing mild ones. They too had massive CFRs in the 20s & 10s % initially, until they could shift focus from triaging. 1% is bad enough, we don't need this fear-mongering. Once the statistical models will catch up in Italy, I am sure we will see the mortality rate head south of 3%, or potentially lower. Measuring only 'closed' cases is just as flawed as measuring open ones. We can only use the data from complete outbreaks and anyone trying otherwise is just trying to do PhD level statistics with pub logic.

Focus on your flying. Save up money. Make back up plans if you're about to be made redundant. Everyone take a deep breath, relax, look after your loved ones and hope this bug doesn't rear it's head again in the near future.
dobby88 is offline  
Old 13th Mar 2020, 22:21
  #68 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: UK
Posts: 30
Originally Posted by Falling_Penguin View Post
This thread should be taken as a prime example of restricting ourselves to what we do best, surreptitiously farting during night flights and moaning about house prices, audi drivers and our awful rosters.
Real LPT is always in the comments. Couldn't have put it better myself. This comment should be stickied at the top of every page on this bloody forum
dobby88 is offline  
Old 13th Mar 2020, 22:49
  #69 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Southern Shores of Lusitania
Age: 49
Posts: 648
To our grandfathers they asked them to go to war...to us they only ask to sit at our home sofa!

Thinks about it please...Peace!
JanetFlight is online now  
Old 13th Mar 2020, 22:54
  #70 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: UK
Posts: 8
Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
As bad news arrive everyday , almost every hour now and the endemic peak still weeks or months away , who is strong enough to overcome the storm and how our industry will look like 6 moths from now?
Not only crews and airlines but our whole industry .
For instance with Boeing share price around 150 USD ,today a drop of 70% in a few months, can the commercial division survive ?
good grief, why would you want anyone to comment on who will still be in business or not ?

(ps it's 'epidemic' not 'endemic')
poppiholla is offline  
Old 14th Mar 2020, 00:00
  #71 (permalink)  
Psychophysiological entity
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Tweet Rob_Benham Famous author. Well, slightly famous.
Age: 80
Posts: 4,880
Television today: 100 times more likely to die from Corona virus than ordinary flue.

Because I spend hours of every day reading science, or Boeing, empiricism is a word I've had drummed into me. I can find no such ratio tonight, but I've an uncomfortable feeling that the conversion to pneumonia has a dangerously high ratio.

As posted on the Filter thread, I became very angry with the press hijacking a minister by crowding his progress. I can hear the cries of 'Oh, badly played. Or, beastly bad show.' but on behalf of the politician, I really wanted to silence that screaming moron with an action that would have stopped her spraying a potentially lethal mist at me. I suppose thrusting her microphone in her mouth would be considered bad form.

Coved-19 and Recirculation Fans

Slowly, slowly I'm beginning to feel I'm not the only one that puts airborne particles at the top of the list of infection communication - by a long mile.
Loose rivets is offline  
Old 14th Mar 2020, 00:03
  #72 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Europe
Posts: 1
The North of Italy has got one of the best NHS systems in the world (it is the opposite in the South), this is in addition to having one of the highest number of intensive care beds vs 100K of population compared to the rest of the world. This is a serious and very worrying sign of what COVID-19 can do in any other country. The biggest problem now is the impact that COVID-19 will have on any travel related business as global travel will soon be completely banned as we have never seen it before. Airlines, Hotels, Travel Companies, Events Companies, etc will have zero cash flow imminently as transactions have collapsed by a magnitude that has never been seen before. Millions of jobs will be lost as other industries will collapse due to the absence of travel, e.g. airline manufacturers will also temporarily close down, whilst national airlines will have to be nationalized again,all other airlines will disappear. If governments will not step in quickly to support the millions of people losing their jobs then we will also see civil unrest and riots. This prediction seems probably unreal now however it is the first time in my life that I genuinely believe this could be the 3rd WW we have all been waiting for. This time is really scary. Good luck to all of us. The economic collapse is as scary as the massive loss of lives that COVID-19 will cause. Covid-19-->Health emergency/Pandemic-->Banned Global travel-->Travel related businesses collapsing--->Civil unrest. This prediction is not pure pessimism. Governments will have to inject lots of cash to save travel related businesses. Central banks can just produce unlimited e-Money and transfer to Companies, let's hope they will start asap to avoid chaos. So who will survive in 6 months? Only those helped by the Governments, all the others will disappear.
ILS27LEFT is offline  
Old 14th Mar 2020, 01:46
  #73 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: the City by the Bay
Posts: 528
My two cents::

1. Containment works to slow the virus as is happening now in China, Taiwan, Singapore and a few other places.
2. Containment will slow the virus in Italy too, even if that doesn't appear to be the case today.
3. Ultimately the virus may affect quite a lot of people worldwide. But we will overcome. I am hoping what they say that about 80pct of people infected will suffer not much more than a bad cold and not require hospital treatment. The 20pct who do require hospitalization, unfortunately not all of these (depending on available care) will make it.
4. The greater tragedy and danger will be social unrest resulting in lack of food, and water . Also very important lack of income.

We should contain the virus as much as we can in a controlled manner as much as possible, but when a large number of people have gotten sick and containment is no longer an option, we should all get back to work doing what we do and keep the wheels turning on Society. The wheels must turn or else people will starve. We can make it. I am confident we will survive this once in a hundred year viral crisis, we need to remain strong.
armchairpilot94116 is offline  
Old 14th Mar 2020, 02:43
  #74 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Boldly going where no split infinitive has gone before..
Posts: 4,340
Originally Posted by Aithiopika View Post
You have an extra zero in there. .1% to 3.4% is 34x.
True, well caught.
Wizofoz is offline  
Old 14th Mar 2020, 05:44
  #75 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Botswana
Posts: 860
Originally Posted by FullWings View Post
If/when we get to the point that a large proportion of people have had it and been asymptomatic/recovered/died, there wonít be a need to restrict travel as itíll be everywhere. Itíll need something to kick-start aviation again, like after 9/11...
Iíve seen this compared to 9/11 a lot but in terms of the bounce back there will (provided people still have their jobs -big question) be a lot of pent up demand. Donít forget that in 2001 people had just watched a commercial airliner plough deliberately into a skyscraper in New York, psychologically horrifying as it was just unimaginable at that time. People were physically scared of getting on an aircraft because of these imagesí effect on the psyche. Now the fear is largely confined to not being able to get back from their destinations if a quarantine/lockdown is put in place. If those have been lifted then thereís not much to actually dissuade people from starting to travel again aside from the money in their wallet which, as I said earlier, is the big factor here.
RexBanner is offline  
Old 14th Mar 2020, 05:59
  #76 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 1,445
Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying View Post
Denti's talking epidemiology

Covid19 spreads like the common cold; so, a strong probability just about all of us will be exposed to it over the next few years. Identified cases tend to be the severe ones, but at least that denominator (positive tests) is known. Silent infections are likely a much larger denominator that we don't really know at present.

As for a vaccine, they've been trying for many decades to develop one against a fellow coronavirus, the common cold.
Yes some colds are caused by coronaviruses, but most are caused by rhinoviruses.
cats_five is offline  
Old 14th Mar 2020, 07:32
  #77 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: MARS
Posts: 1,044
Europe will go on lockdown, the UK will finally wake up and do the same and then the USA will be the epicentre of the outbreak and the EU will ban flights from the USA.
Widger is offline  
Old 14th Mar 2020, 08:21
  #78 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: On the Edge
Posts: 48
Originally Posted by cattletruck View Post
Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.
We survived SARs and a number of world wars, but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
May I suggest a couple of things:
- Turn off your phone.
- Sell your TV.
- Look at the people around you for what they are.
Then in six months when your still alive and wasting precious oxygen, consider making an apology for being a selfish pri!ck (if it's within your capability).

ATC Watcher, I respect most of your posts but I feel this time you are listening to the idiot brigade that now run our media and finance. In time you will see what I see.
Can I have one bucket of sand please.
DHC4 is offline  
Old 14th Mar 2020, 08:25
  #79 (permalink)  
Pegase Driver
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: May 1997
Location: Europe
Age: 70
Posts: 2,860
Originally Posted by RexBanner View Post
I’ve seen this compared to 9/11 a lot but in terms of the bounce back there will (provided people still have their jobs -big question) be a lot of pent up demand. Don’t forget that in 2001 people had just watched a commercial airliner plough deliberately into a skyscraper in New York, psychologically horrifying as it was just unimaginable at that time. People were physically scared of getting on an aircraft because of these images’ effect on the psyche. Now the fear is largely confined to not being able to get back from their destinations if a quarantine/lockdown is put in place. If those have been lifted then there’s not much to actually dissuade people from starting to travel again aside from the money in their wallet which, as I said earlier, is the big factor here.
People refer to 2001 9/11 because their remember it . I am ( unfortunately) old enough to remember the 1973-74 oil embargo crisis , and this is much more similar .

It started with a crash of the stock exchange following an oil embargo to certain countries, Netherlands was one of them and this is where I was living at the time . Flights were banned , aircraft grounded, , cars prohibited to drive on Sundays , heating oil and electricity was rationed with tickets, and emergency powers given to Governments to impose prison sentences to citizens not following the new rules.. Social unrest followed , government fell and fortunately it stopped right in time to avoid complete chaos The whole story you can read on Internet..
Travel bans looks great on TV to appease public opinion but are creating far more issues than what they are suppose to achieve. the virus is already present everywhere it does not stop at the borders.,But our Industry is the first one that is hit by those bans
.
As the Chinese A350 bringing expertise and respirators to Italy showed yesterday , Aviation is not spreading the virus , it will be essential to fight it too...so let's keep it up while it still can..
ATC Watcher is offline  
Old 14th Mar 2020, 08:46
  #80 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Posts: 341
Well this makes a change. Everything is normally the fault of crewing and ops!
waco is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.