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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 14th Mar 2020, 13:20
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
As bad news arrive everyday , almost every hour now and the endemic peak still weeks or months away , who is strong enough to overcome the storm and how our industry will look like 6 moths from now?
Not only crews and airlines but our whole industry .
For instance with Boeing share price around 150 USD ,today a drop of 70% in a few months, can the commercial division survive ?

Cargo ops, unscheduled ops and of course military ops will survive.

The airline sector completely missed its mark in January.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 13:47
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RexBanner View Post
Now the fear is largely confined to not being able to get back from their destinations if a quarantine/lockdown is put in place.
Well, sad to say the fear here is not being able to buy food. You can't find meat, vegetables, bread, milk, toilet paper, or even SPAM in any store. Doesn't seem to be stopping either and the stores can't re-stock fast enough.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 14:38
  #83 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by b1lanc View Post
Well, sad to say the fear here is not being able to buy food. You can't find meat, vegetables, bread, milk, toilet paper, or even SPAM in any store. Doesn't seem to be stopping either and the stores can't re-stock fast enough.
Our stores are going to short hours to allow them time to restock the. empty shelves. Trucks with new supplies in the pipe line are on the way from warehouses. Eventually the stores will be over-supplied and the stuff like toilet paper will go on sale making the idiots who stockpiled think more deeply about their decision making.

Maybe the meat and dairy products they scooped up in full carriages will spoil before they make a run on refrigerators.

Now making a run on booze I can understand since we are advised to stay by ourselves in our own rooms
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 16:46
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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Flights from UK and Ireland to USA suspended from midnight EDT Monday night (March 16), just announced by Mike Pence on CNN.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 17:16
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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Great article !!

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 18:05
  #86 (permalink)  
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Great article !!
not great , scary ! If half of what this guy says happens , it will be not only be the aviation sector that collapses, but entire States...
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 18:24
  #87 (permalink)  
 
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Yeah I know. I don't mean Great as in Great news obviously, I meant Great as in Great article. the guy seems to have a credible argument.
I am going with the thought that "most all of us will be fine, nothing more than a cold" and the belief that "we should all function as normal, other than washing hands and social distancing to buy time"

My boss says "its mankind against the virus..only one will win"

I am betting on Mankind. and I hope that this event brings us all closer together as a human race and understand that we are all vulnerable and we should put aside our differences on many things as much as we can.

This virus we will overcome... The next one, the one virologists call X is the one to fear, the one where the kill rate could be as high as 70pct and be just as infectious as this one.

Mankind needs to come together and kumbaya because one day .....

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Old 14th Mar 2020, 23:12
  #88 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by armchairpilot94116 View Post
Yeah I know. I don't mean Great as in Great news obviously, I meant Great as in Great article. the guy seems to have a credible argument.
I am going with the thought that "most all of us will be fine, nothing more than a cold" and the belief that "we should all function as normal, other than washing hands and social distancing to buy time"

My boss says "its mankind against the virus..only one will win"

I am betting on Mankind. and I hope that this event brings us all closer together as a human race and understand that we are all vulnerable and we should put aside our differences on many things as much as we can.

This virus we will overcome... The next one, the one virologists call X is the one to fear, the one where the kill rate could be as high as 70pct and be just as infectious as this one.

Mankind needs to come together and kumbaya because one day .....


I like a good doomsday scenario as much as the next guy, but a virus with the CFR you describe wouldn't be that effective at spreading as it would kill its host too fast.

Paradoxically, one large reason Covid-19 is tough to fight is precisely because it's not as deadly as previous ones like SARS and MERS, which were more easy to identify cluster outbreaks of and thus contain because - so many people died so fast.

But to be on the safe side, make sure the reflective shiny side of the tinfoil is on the outside of your hat, dull side in.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 23:38
  #89 (permalink)  
 
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Indeed! I shall continue to look for wayward asteroids as well with that hat on ! I am upbeat about us defeating this virus though.

.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...y-warned-about
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 00:18
  #90 (permalink)  
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We survived SARs and a number of world wars, but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
Yep, 50 million of them ~1919


If you haven't done so after my last emotional outpouring, please take time to read this young nurse's story on this dedicated site.* It spells out the bravery of the time, an era when they must have started to know the extreme danger they were in but carried on nursing anyway. We know so much more now but the enemy is subtle. It has evolved. It is designed to kill us, it has no other purpose - other than its skilled determination to modify itself and reproduce.

*https://heatonhistorygroup.org/2016/...gg-remembered/

I used to take Gaia and the Earth goddess with a pinch of salt. Fun, but no real science involved. How wrong I was. Some of the Earth's defences equal the realms of science fiction. It's as though Homo sapiens have really T'd off its defence systems and something is working hard to destroy the temporarily successful species. Temporary is measured in hundreds of thousands of years.

Nonsense? Now that carbon dating is so breathtakingly accurate, we hope, we find that our species has wiped out the advanced species, along with the flora and fauna of easily definable continents, like say, Madagascar. We have only the remnants of at least six other Human species. The point? Whether or not a virus is a living entity is an almost philosophical question. Most mechanisms with this power have a purpose. To analyse what's going on takes us into theological and metaphysical argument. Our, and other nations' wellbeing is being affected by a sub-microscopic quasi-life form. Sir Fred Hoyle beat a lone drum about these entities for a lot of his life. Right now, some of his ideas are making me feel very uncertain about our future.

It's perhaps comforting we're seeing a united, international, fight against this adversity. In itself, an oddly science fiction scenario.

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Old 15th Mar 2020, 00:32
  #91 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Loose rivets View Post
Yep, 50 million of them ~1919
This was an interesting event which started in 1918 when the US began shipping soldiers overseas. The gov't even then warned people not to congregate in large crowds. Interesting article below. TV show on last week - towns that heeded the warning just west of Philly have a very low mortality rate.

You simply never know. The Spanish flu cut down healthy people equally.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/100-year...y-loan-parade/

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Old 15th Mar 2020, 00:49
  #92 (permalink)  
 
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The Italian reports indicate that the virus is dreadfully dangerous to older people, but fairly benign for people under 50, with flu like death rates of around 0.2% .for the younger, but up to 15% for those over 80.
That suggests that it is pointless to thrash the global economy via social shutdowns when a focus on protecting the old until a vaccine is available would be more effective at much lower human cost.
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 01:11
  #93 (permalink)  
 
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By the end of the year assorted governments will be hailing the fact they made their Green targets.
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 01:27
  #94 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
The Italian reports indicate that the virus is dreadfully dangerous to older people, but fairly benign for people under 50, with flu like death rates of around 0.2% .for the younger, but up to 15% for those over 80.
That suggests that it is pointless to thrash the global economy via social shutdowns when a focus on protecting the old until a vaccine is available would be more effective at much lower human cost.
But one of the reasons it is so deadly for older people in Italy is that they are often denied access to intensive care units because they are full.Younger patients get priority.
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 01:45
  #95 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by marchino61 View Post
But one of the reasons it is so deadly for older people in Italy is that they are often denied access to intensive care units because they are full.Younger patients get priority.
As it should be, it is called triage. I am over 75 and have no problem with this action/decision
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 02:26
  #96 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by marchino61 View Post
But one of the reasons it is so deadly for older people in Italy is that they are often denied access to intensive care units because they are full.Younger patients get priority.
I'd like to see some support for that statement.

Sure over here it's natural that typical triage processes tend to treat the younger crowd of gun shot wounds stabbings and nail-gun shootings before coughs, snot noses and falls. OTOH I watched and/or participated in old foks with possible strokes and heart attacks going to the front of the queue
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 02:27
  #97 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by armchairpilot94116 View Post
By a great story teller with zero expertise in pandemics, statistics, or public health!
https://wikiherald.com/tomas-pueyo-bio-wiki/
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 02:31
  #98 (permalink)  
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Philly. I was unaware of that. What a frightening read. However, the strain seems to have been different. (to contemporaneous strains) Why the young were so vulnerable is seemingly still a mystery.
"No soldier on the field of war battle could be any more courageous. Nor are the nurses on the front one whit more heroines than these girls." – William G. McAllister, superintendent of Philadelphia General Hospital, to the Evening Public Ledger
I'm not quite sure why I'm so emotional about Kate Elizabeth, perhaps because she died just months before my grandfather, both by pneumonia. CSM Rathborne was gung-ho when in Flanders in 1915. A letter home was so inspiring and eloquent that the local press published it. Like a lot of front-line combatants, his vulnerability to lung infection was probably due to having being gassed.
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 03:02
  #99 (permalink)  
 
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In my years of constant flying to & from Asia (in the back of the plane) I befriended a number of crew over time. I still keep in touch with a few and worry about their health and financial future. In the US it's not uncommon for people to set up a GoFundMe page for crushing medical debt and I would not hesitate to chip in to help a PPL or FA who finds themselves on the brink due to evaporating job or infection.
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Old 15th Mar 2020, 03:07
  #100 (permalink)  
 
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Why the young were so vulnerable is seemingly still a mystery.
One theory you already suggest - debilitation by gassing (or trench life in general).

Another I've seen is that the particular 1918 strain induced immune-system "storms" that themselves caused body damage - a healthy young immune system could actually be a liability. cf: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

These weren't really recognized and studied until transplants (and immune reactions to them) became common more than half a century later.
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