Ryanair exodus, what is the plan?
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Quite so,
There will never be a problem filling the right seat at RYR (for the foreseable future anyway), there is a line a mile long of starry eyed wanabees fresh out of Oxford or wherever willing to sell their soul to fly a B738, and it only takes RYR a couple of months or so to get them on line.
However, if significant numbers of 2500 hour + F/O's leave, plus some of the younger Capts who as you say,realise that another 30 years in the LHS with RYR is unsustainable, then I can see a problem, especially if the supply of suitable DECs dry up.
With a relatively high failure rate of command upgrades (rumoured to be over 40 %), its filling the LHS that's going to be a problem for them.
PS
You're right about them "wanting" to hang on to the older Capt's , the company has been a lot more accommodating towards me recently !!
There will never be a problem filling the right seat at RYR (for the foreseable future anyway), there is a line a mile long of starry eyed wanabees fresh out of Oxford or wherever willing to sell their soul to fly a B738, and it only takes RYR a couple of months or so to get them on line.
However, if significant numbers of 2500 hour + F/O's leave, plus some of the younger Capts who as you say,realise that another 30 years in the LHS with RYR is unsustainable, then I can see a problem, especially if the supply of suitable DECs dry up.
With a relatively high failure rate of command upgrades (rumoured to be over 40 %), its filling the LHS that's going to be a problem for them.
PS
You're right about them "wanting" to hang on to the older Capt's , the company has been a lot more accommodating towards me recently !!
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very interested in your comments. To my knowledge there has been NO "COMPANY" spin with regard to a possible order of 787s, so how can you be sure that they would go for 777. Have you got this on good authority?
There will i am sure be any amount of stories of how many people are leaving, how many guys have pulled off OCC courses, etc. i would imagine ryr will be the only ones who really know the truth, and for the remainder of this year i don't see a big problem as the winter slow down will ease pressure, but as we all know its the left seat thats a problem for them and with most captains already doing the odd day off for them to create stby's there is obviously a shortage, any captains leaving that are not being replaced by sfo is where the trouble starts for them, for every 4 that go it's a plane not operating next year, thats before you factor in new aircraft. We may well see a return to the days prior 06 when aircraft were wet leased to help run the schedule. Will it mean a change in the t&c conditions, properly in the short term not, will it mean mol walks around cursing the need for pilots at all, most certainly, the only way i would imagine that increases in t&c will happen will be on a one to one bases.
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Hello
Has anyone heard any rumours about RYR commencing any recruitment of rated and experienced FOs or is it still only rated Captains and new Cadets that they are interested in? Had hoped that with guys leaving demand for FOs with 2000 + hours would open up recruitment.
Has anyone heard any rumours about RYR commencing any recruitment of rated and experienced FOs or is it still only rated Captains and new Cadets that they are interested in? Had hoped that with guys leaving demand for FOs with 2000 + hours would open up recruitment.
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More than 2600+ CVs of fresh 200hrs CPL young guys are on Ryanair's Desk standing by, all willing to fly a beautiful B737-800 with a nice base in Europe, for just a few pennies 
So people going to Emirates and other middle east companies will allow even cheaper new labour to join Ryanair. This is how it is at Ryanair.
Remeber, MOL is aiming to offer its passengers only free tickets
As for people leaving Ryanair, they might see themselves even more p.issed off at Emirates, flying maximum hours/year on a fully automatic airplane, based in a hot, dry expensive country, far from everything
So people going to Emirates and other middle east companies will allow even cheaper new labour to join Ryanair. This is how it is at Ryanair.
Remeber, MOL is aiming to offer its passengers only free tickets
As for people leaving Ryanair, they might see themselves even more p.issed off at Emirates, flying maximum hours/year on a fully automatic airplane, based in a hot, dry expensive country, far from everything
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Bia Botal has is right, no one will actually know what the actual crewing scenario is besides Ryanair itself. Rumour fills the air here like a thick fog. One day no body is leaving and the next day half the crew are upping sticks. Pilots are naturally inquisitive soles and have a burning interest in the next best thing. However when push comes to shove, actually making the commitment to move, especially far a field, doesn't come easy; no matter how serious they sound when chatting in the corner of the crewroom or at FL370.
It's fairly certain that FR will be losing crew in the coming months to the likes of Emirates; however I strongly doubt it is going to be a 'mass exodus.' We are all working hard at the moment which suggests that crewing levels are covering capacity. There are people working occasional days off, however as bia suggests; this is freeing up standby cover as and when. There has been no talk of crews doing regular out of base rotations, suffering from constant roster alterations or being under continual pressure to work a 6th day. That to me would be the real indicator that crewing are starting to suffer. Until then we appear set to ride this summer out. Crew levels will be more than adequate for the winter. Then potkettleblack will have his chance to see a few aircraft parked up!!
The continual rumbling is that we are short on Captains, however that's been the case since I joined. This, in my opinion, is based on projected growth. The airline knows that it needs to keep the flow to the LHS going. As for favouring DECs? I think its more based on the fact that it doesn't have any other option. The internal CU process doesn't even cover it, and that's even if everyone were to pass so I'm told. Plan B may indeed be hiring a few command ready FOs. However this has been attempted before and had limited success.
On the other hand, growth will eventually stop (within 2 to 3 years?) If we do hit a double dip recession then attrition will again be low. The burning desire for CUs and DECs will be a thing of the past. High time career FOs at Ryanair anyone?
It's fairly certain that FR will be losing crew in the coming months to the likes of Emirates; however I strongly doubt it is going to be a 'mass exodus.' We are all working hard at the moment which suggests that crewing levels are covering capacity. There are people working occasional days off, however as bia suggests; this is freeing up standby cover as and when. There has been no talk of crews doing regular out of base rotations, suffering from constant roster alterations or being under continual pressure to work a 6th day. That to me would be the real indicator that crewing are starting to suffer. Until then we appear set to ride this summer out. Crew levels will be more than adequate for the winter. Then potkettleblack will have his chance to see a few aircraft parked up!!
The continual rumbling is that we are short on Captains, however that's been the case since I joined. This, in my opinion, is based on projected growth. The airline knows that it needs to keep the flow to the LHS going. As for favouring DECs? I think its more based on the fact that it doesn't have any other option. The internal CU process doesn't even cover it, and that's even if everyone were to pass so I'm told. Plan B may indeed be hiring a few command ready FOs. However this has been attempted before and had limited success.
On the other hand, growth will eventually stop (within 2 to 3 years?) If we do hit a double dip recession then attrition will again be low. The burning desire for CUs and DECs will be a thing of the past. High time career FOs at Ryanair anyone?
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Mike, part agree, part disagree. Career airline it isn't however a recognised grounding for a future career path it is. I'm not sure if 'most' FOs believe that the grass is always greener. Whilst there isn't an ambition to remain here forever more, I think a few FOs have become wise to the fact that it is better to leave after a year in the LHS than leave from the right. Command time is and will remain a valued commodity. Whist a 2500 hour FO meets the minimum entry requirements for Emirates; he/she is as just about as useful as tits on a nun everywhere else!
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If Ryanair ever gets short of FOs to upgrade there is plenty of young Turbo-prop commanders who would self fun a DEC... (I have heard the conversations)
"Wanted... Flybe captains with 2000 hours command on the Q400 who will take out a loan for a 73NG rating, at their own risk of not passing the line training"
Problem solved
It's a shame but people now are happy to get in more debt to advance their careers, just look at the adverts regularly on here, you can now pay for 500 hours 747 command time!
"Wanted... Flybe captains with 2000 hours command on the Q400 who will take out a loan for a 73NG rating, at their own risk of not passing the line training"
Problem solved
It's a shame but people now are happy to get in more debt to advance their careers, just look at the adverts regularly on here, you can now pay for 500 hours 747 command time!
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a few years ago when ryr had 900 pilots this would have been an issue..they say 5% of crew must leave before theres an issue... 5% of 2 and a half thousand pilots wont be leaving ryanair in near future...
also for those who feel the ryanair business model will have to change when pilots demand fair treatment and deals, well o leary selling a chunk of shares yesterday is fuel to your fire
also for those who feel the ryanair business model will have to change when pilots demand fair treatment and deals, well o leary selling a chunk of shares yesterday is fuel to your fire
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In Ryanair it is very simple to find out information if you ask a base supervisor or anyone in the offices in STN. So asked in STN tonight. The inflight supers have access to all reports in every base.
Exodus my ass - 9 Captains and 9 Copilots leaving in total over the next three months. Four to Emirates - 1 Cp and 3 Co-jo - 2 to FlyDubai a Cp and a CoJo. I know 2 of the CoJos leaving to Emirates and both failed command in STN twice. Over a year that is maybe 80-100 leaving in total out of 2600.
As trainers all briefed that 3 OCC courses cancelled - replaced with Command courses. DEC courses end next March. No plans to ever hire DE FO's as it takes winter and 2 SIMS to get into command process.
MugaB running crewing very tight. CoJos getting a lot of hours.
FR data very easy to find out. In STN the sign in sheet and Netline are on desks to all crew members and you can easily see how many crew in base and work out crewing from a/c numbers. It looks like we are down in STN to approx 160 Cp and 160 Fos which is really just enough for winter a/c. Same data easy to get at all other bases.
MugaB rumoured to be leaving FR for EZYland to fix the crewing issues which is what he did at Ryanair in 06. He looks ill to me - very gaunt. Good riddance.
Ryanair real problems are creating revenue. Straying from the model with all these long flights - ops I did on many Canaries flights with less than 50% last Winter.
Bizzare - Worked floating in DUB for a few weeks and carried up and down to ORK twice in a week a head marketing guy who seems to commute daily to DUB. Not very Ryanair style. We had to delay flights twice and lie for his commute. He never said as much as thanks. New commercial staff would help I think. There will be no pay increases unless they fix how to get more cash in the L1 door.
Exodus my ass - 9 Captains and 9 Copilots leaving in total over the next three months. Four to Emirates - 1 Cp and 3 Co-jo - 2 to FlyDubai a Cp and a CoJo. I know 2 of the CoJos leaving to Emirates and both failed command in STN twice. Over a year that is maybe 80-100 leaving in total out of 2600.
As trainers all briefed that 3 OCC courses cancelled - replaced with Command courses. DEC courses end next March. No plans to ever hire DE FO's as it takes winter and 2 SIMS to get into command process.
MugaB running crewing very tight. CoJos getting a lot of hours.
FR data very easy to find out. In STN the sign in sheet and Netline are on desks to all crew members and you can easily see how many crew in base and work out crewing from a/c numbers. It looks like we are down in STN to approx 160 Cp and 160 Fos which is really just enough for winter a/c. Same data easy to get at all other bases.
MugaB rumoured to be leaving FR for EZYland to fix the crewing issues which is what he did at Ryanair in 06. He looks ill to me - very gaunt. Good riddance.
Ryanair real problems are creating revenue. Straying from the model with all these long flights - ops I did on many Canaries flights with less than 50% last Winter.
Bizzare - Worked floating in DUB for a few weeks and carried up and down to ORK twice in a week a head marketing guy who seems to commute daily to DUB. Not very Ryanair style. We had to delay flights twice and lie for his commute. He never said as much as thanks. New commercial staff would help I think. There will be no pay increases unless they fix how to get more cash in the L1 door.
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Exodus my ass - 9 Captains and 9 Copilots leaving in total over the next three months. Four to Emirates - 1 Cp and 3 Co-jo - 2 to FlyDubai a Cp and a CoJo. I know 2 of the CoJos leaving to Emirates and both failed command in STN twice. Over a year that is maybe 80-100 leaving in total out of 2600.
As trainers all briefed that 3 OCC courses cancelled - replaced with Command courses. DEC courses end next March. No plans to ever hire DE FO's as it takes winter and 2 SIMS to get into command process.
It might take 1 winter and 2 sims to upgrade a DE FO, it takes around 3/4 years to upgrade a cadet in the best case (with around 50% failure rate).
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Stn Pilot Rubbish
please don't suggest that you know everything from speaking to a base supervisor. It's inane to think that. People are leaving. A figure I heard today from a senior figure was 125. But who knows, and who really cares? its a bit of a rubbish job and no surprise people want to leave.
Last edited by 111boy; 29th Jul 2010 at 14:49.
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please don't suggest that you know everything from speaking to a base supervisor. It's inane to think that. People are leaving. A figure I heard today from a senior figure was 125. But who knows, and who really cares?
There is also lots of interesting audited data on the SEC 20f which is located here:-
SEC Info - Ryanair Holdings PLC - 20-F - For 3/31/10
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figure i heard was 125 pilots leaving (cpt +fo), secondhand info, but from someone i would expect to know. but who really cares, this is normal. you get a better offer, then you leave.
a look in the back of flight international the last few weeks shows that airlines outside the uk are beginning to hire, although our carriers are all still dead in the water. however, the international nature of ryanairs pilot workforce (with plenty of guys commuting during days off), means that there is no attachment to the uk or ireland or anywhere. flying in the sandpit would mean a big move for a brit, but for someone who's commuting to the uk from the far side of europe or is already living abroad, not really.
a look in the back of flight international the last few weeks shows that airlines outside the uk are beginning to hire, although our carriers are all still dead in the water. however, the international nature of ryanairs pilot workforce (with plenty of guys commuting during days off), means that there is no attachment to the uk or ireland or anywhere. flying in the sandpit would mean a big move for a brit, but for someone who's commuting to the uk from the far side of europe or is already living abroad, not really.
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Horses mouth ( TRI ) , apparently NO DECs for next year , T&Cs continue to deteriorate !!
So much for that !
I reckon the beancounters have detected the double-dip recession biting and would rather be temporarily short of crew ( if they have got it wrong ) than make the mistake ( to them of course ) of spending 1 cent for no reason .
My 2 cents.
So much for that !
I reckon the beancounters have detected the double-dip recession biting and would rather be temporarily short of crew ( if they have got it wrong ) than make the mistake ( to them of course ) of spending 1 cent for no reason .
My 2 cents.
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Out of the frying pan into the fire!
I regularly talk to some guys from Emirates down route, and what I hear from them does NOT make me want to fly for them. All of it (the brainwashing, the hard work, the STASI bullying tactics) remind me of my days in Easy. All of them look fatigued, overworked and NOT happy!
Sure, the lure of those shiny jets and 4 stripes is very appealing, but that's the problem with low-cost pilots in general: they only look at flying shiny jets and a quick upgrade (turbo prop --> Easy Ryan 737/A319 --> Emirates) but they always forget to look at the company! Out of the frying pan into the fire indeed!
Everybody wants it NOW; the quick upgrades, the shiny jets etc. Nobody wants to invest time into a decent company and join at the bottom of a seniority list anymore. Well, guess what: there's a price you pay for those shiny jets and those quick 4 stripes, and that price is the very reason why people now want to leave Easy and Ryan in droves! Don't make the same mistake again, if you want to leave then leave for something significantly better!
I would seriously recommend against anyone leaving a (lousy) European company with poor T&C's to fly for a (lousy) Middle Eastern company with poor T&C's, unless you're happy with the career model of always being underpaid, overworked yet flying a shiny jet with 4 stripes!
Even if you're not that happy now in Easy or Ryan you're still in Europe, and not an immigrant worker in a desert police state without any basic human rights, basically on par with these poor Pakistani and Bangladeshi workers who are slaving away on the next skyscraper.
Your much better off getting your act together and make that European company a better place to stay and work!
Now that would seriously p!ss off MOL!
Sure, the lure of those shiny jets and 4 stripes is very appealing, but that's the problem with low-cost pilots in general: they only look at flying shiny jets and a quick upgrade (turbo prop --> Easy Ryan 737/A319 --> Emirates) but they always forget to look at the company! Out of the frying pan into the fire indeed!
Everybody wants it NOW; the quick upgrades, the shiny jets etc. Nobody wants to invest time into a decent company and join at the bottom of a seniority list anymore. Well, guess what: there's a price you pay for those shiny jets and those quick 4 stripes, and that price is the very reason why people now want to leave Easy and Ryan in droves! Don't make the same mistake again, if you want to leave then leave for something significantly better!
I would seriously recommend against anyone leaving a (lousy) European company with poor T&C's to fly for a (lousy) Middle Eastern company with poor T&C's, unless you're happy with the career model of always being underpaid, overworked yet flying a shiny jet with 4 stripes!
Even if you're not that happy now in Easy or Ryan you're still in Europe, and not an immigrant worker in a desert police state without any basic human rights, basically on par with these poor Pakistani and Bangladeshi workers who are slaving away on the next skyscraper.
Your much better off getting your act together and make that European company a better place to stay and work!
Now that would seriously p!ss off MOL!
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Even if you're not that happy now in Easy or Ryan you're still in Europe, and not an immigrant worker in a desert police state without any basic human rights
Dubai might not be the country of freedom but surely Emirates is a major step up as far as basic T&C's goes if compared to FR and considering the very young average age of the FR pilot population there are hundreds willing to give it a try.
Your much better off getting your act together and make that European company a better place to stay and work!
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dannyalliga, that kind of short term, vicious circle thinking will always get people into crappy companies, yet never out of their misery...
Like spineless fools looking for a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, they leave and prostitute themselves to the next slave/camel driver for a couple of pennies extra, instead of staying and improving their current situation.
It's pretty obvious which way those psychological airline entry tests are biased when it comes to "fight of flight" questions!
Like spineless fools looking for a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, they leave and prostitute themselves to the next slave/camel driver for a couple of pennies extra, instead of staying and improving their current situation.
It's pretty obvious which way those psychological airline entry tests are biased when it comes to "fight of flight" questions!
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Bokkenrijder,
are you referring to FR pilots in your speech?To those that pay 30k euros to get into the right seat and that accept base changes/paycuts/less days off to go to the left seat?
You are talking about modern prostitutes here my friend, there is no pride nor any sort of attachment to the brand nor the flag in FR pilots, no sense of belonging whatsoever.
The recipe is lacking the basic ingredients for any kind of pro-active action.
The very same ingredients are however perfect for those who are in constant search for something more and willing to betray anyone for gold.
That's why Emirates is the most common topic during the cruise at Ryanair....
are you referring to FR pilots in your speech?To those that pay 30k euros to get into the right seat and that accept base changes/paycuts/less days off to go to the left seat?
You are talking about modern prostitutes here my friend, there is no pride nor any sort of attachment to the brand nor the flag in FR pilots, no sense of belonging whatsoever.
The recipe is lacking the basic ingredients for any kind of pro-active action.
The very same ingredients are however perfect for those who are in constant search for something more and willing to betray anyone for gold.
That's why Emirates is the most common topic during the cruise at Ryanair....
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Dubai might not be the country of freedom but surely Emirates is a major step up as far as basic T&C's goes if compared to FR and considering the very young average age of the FR pilot population there are hundreds willing to give it a try.
That's why Emirates is the most common topic during the cruise at Ryanair....
As I said, I regularly meet and talk to EK pilots all over the world and the picture they paint is not a pretty one...
I've seldom seen such naivety and stupidity written;
you should know Ryanair's core philosophy is to drive DOWN costs (including labour) at ALL costs.
Ryanair will spot the reduction in staffing levels and will immediately offer direct entry Captains decent contracts.
You are talking about modern prostitutes here my friend, there is no pride nor any sort of attachment to the brand nor the flag in FR pilots, no sense of belonging whatsoever.
This is the way is has ever been and how it always shall be at Ryanair.
You poor misguided souls never really thought this thing through now did you? EK is nothing more than a sort of 'higher cost' long haul version of FR, complete with cabin crew from the 3rd world and pilots desperate enough to join them. And of desperate and naive pilots there seems to be an endless supply...
Final tip: have a look on Youtube and search for documentaries about the UAE, what it means to have debts you can't pay off (mortgage..) and how they treat foreign workers. Last week there was a good documentary on the BBC about this issue and here's the result from a quick search;
YouTube - The Human Cost Of Dubai's Economic Meltdown
YouTube - The Human Cost Of Dubai's Economic Meltdown
Final tip: don't be stupid, naive and ill prepared, read the threads about EK here on PPRuNe!!!!!!!
Last edited by Bokkenrijder; 30th Jul 2010 at 15:45.