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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:27
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=Airbubba;10657974]Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory. Like some other folks here, I've operated out of Mehrabad Airport but not out of Khomeini. Is the depicted dogleg to the right normal on departure?

Looks to be a similar track to the Parot 3G SID





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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:31
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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Sky news reporting Downing Street investigating possibility aircraft was shot down. (Press speculation only - no new information)

https://news.sky.com/story/iran-plan...ssile-11904698
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:31
  #223 (permalink)  
 
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Has anyone remarked THIS article? Perhaps the reason for the delay (offloading baggage from the cargo hold)?

https://112.international/society/16...sdc-47285.html

There were 169 passengers checked in for PS 752 flight from Iran to Kyiv, but two of them did not get aboard. This was announced by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danylov at the briefing, which was broadcasted by 112 Ukraine TV Channel.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:32
  #224 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
The FR24 trace stops with the aircraft still in the climb on the departure heading. You can't tell anything from the trace about what did or didn't happen subsequently.
It looks to me like there is a 20 degree turn to the right before the data is lost. I think the FR24 dataset has been updated with the 'granular' data from the local ADS-B receiver(s).

Here's the FR24 plot of the .kml file plotted on Google Earth:



The standard FR24 plot:



And the FlightAware track log showing a course change in the last point:


Last edited by Airbubba; 9th Jan 2020 at 15:44.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:37
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SA Brit View Post
Originally Posted by Airbubba View Post
Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory. Like some other folks here, I've operated out of Mehrabad Airport but not out of Khomeini. Is the depicted dogleg to the right normal on departure?
Looks to be a similar track to the Parot 3G SID

Or possibly the Parot 2H from the timing of the turn?

Thanks, I appreciate it.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:39
  #226 (permalink)  
 
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Salute!

As Mozella points out, it is not unheard of to have SAM operators and others tracking commercial aircraft. So the theory that an unintentional/accidental launch happened is worthy of examination. However, if that is the case then I doubt the government would be quick to admit such.

Our very own NORAD had "accidental" shootdowns back in the day, and I went thru one pressure chamber training session with a troop that was shot down by an F-102. The Deuce pilot had failed to confirm a weapon system evaluator missile ( inert warhead and motor) was loaded, and a live AIM-4 used for load crew training was launched. We went the full distance when carrying WSEM's, including opening the bay doors and extending the missiles on their trapeze launch rails so the seeker could lock on. For the nuclear Genie on my VooDoo, we rotated the bay door and confirmed the targeting data was sent to the rocket and then the fire signal. Our live nukes had a whole different buncha layers of security and such, as you can imagine. However, I did get to touch them when pre-flighting and cocking my plane on the alert pad. During some inspections and exercises we got them outta the bomb dump and actually loaded a few. You know, "war games" !!

So it is possible a SAM site was tracking the airliner and a safety interlock failed or was incorrectly set. I have a problem with the launch crew not turning off the guidance signals ( if the thing was command guided like ones I saw over Hanoi and not a radar/optical seeker). And even the semi-active seeker types can go "dumb" if you turn off the tracking radar.

Gums sends...
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:45
  #227 (permalink)  
 
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Seems to be confirmed to be a missile, not one but two:
@krisvancleave.@cbsnews: US officials are confident Ukrainian Flt 752 was shot down by Iran. US intelligence picked up signals of the radar being turned on & satellite detected infrared blips of 2 missile launches, probably SA-15s, followed shortly by another infrared blip of an explosion.

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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:54
  #228 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Airbubba View Post
It looks to me like there is a 20 degree turn to the right before the data is lost. I think the FR24 dataset has been updated with the 'granular' data from the local ADS-B receiver(s).
Yes, the FR24 granular data and FlightAware show a 14 track change (289 to 313) over the course of about 30 seconds (02:44:15 to 02:44:45), so about half a degree per second.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:57
  #229 (permalink)  
 
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US UK and Iraqi officials seem to be in agreement on this now after distancing from it yesterday.

BREAKING: Senior US and Iraqi officials report that the Ukrainian airliner that went down outside Tehran was brought down by a surface to air missile.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:58
  #230 (permalink)  
 
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Quick debris map as best i can gather from the images.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:03
  #231 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sailvi767 View Post
Yes, really! Certainly they would never see a missle fly out at anything beyond 2 digit ranges.
Originally Posted by LiamNCL View Post
Yep, it would be nave to think that we didn't have good enough satellite coverage to detect a SAM launch in Tehran.

Last edited by Airbubba; 9th Jan 2020 at 17:20.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:12
  #232 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Interflug View Post
Accidental. Oh, nobody would have thought so. It looked like a regular landing to me.
Unbelievable...
Accidental in terms of shot down, Nobody is saying Iran done it on purpose but it looks like a missile downing to me.

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Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:19
  #233 (permalink)  
 
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Breaking news of missile launches:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:22
  #234 (permalink)  
 
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You have a SAM site sitting under the departure corridor of a major international airport, this was no mistake.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:22
  #235 (permalink)  
 
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Just in:
WASHINGTON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - A Ukraine airliner that crashed in Iran, killing all 176 people aboard, was most likely brought down accidentally by Iranian air defenses, U.S. officials said on Thursday.
One U.S. official said U.S. satellites had detected the launch of two missiles shortly before the plane crashed, followed by evidence of an explosion. Two officials said Washington believed the downing of the plane was accidental.
The Pentagon declined to comment.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:39
  #236 (permalink)  
 
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Good work by some open minded Ppruners, IMO. Some very well observed details of high velocity frag damage to parts of the airframe, some accurate interpretation of the recorded initial flightpath and some well considered consideration of the subsequent descent and crash. Additionally, the smoking evidence of the missile seeker was well explained and treated with the appropriate caution by those with knowledge. I am sure more details will emerge. RIP the victims.

OAP
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:46
  #237 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
EDML,

Pretty quick thinking on someone's part to publish that photo of the Seeker Head.....was it taken into evidence by the Iranian authorities....the Seeker Head and photos....and a Statement by the finder himself?

If not....what investigation was done to confirm/deny the validity of the "claim" made by the poster of the photo?

Either it is genuine or it is not.....which is it and how is the truth of the matter documented?

Can we trust what is being put forward regarding the Seeker Head by the Iranian Government?
We can't trust either side.

However, if I would have found a missile part near a crashed aircraft I would have done more to document what it is and where it was found. E.g. a picture showing the wider surroundings so that the location can be verified. Turning it over to the authorities might be a problem in Iran, I agree on that.

I have seen so many pictures after aircraft accidents posted on social media where, after a short period of time, it was determined, that they did not even show the aircraft that had crashed.

Without any kind of proof or further information I tend to be very skeptical with pictures found on social media sites.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:50
  #238 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting image (Ghetty Images) just appeared on CNN. Shows a big section of fuselage (Heat damaged) partially embedded in a building. Surely not the same plane?

Last edited by jewitts; 9th Jan 2020 at 16:57. Reason: addition
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:53
  #239 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jewitts View Post
Interesting image (Ghetty Images) just appeared on CNN. Shows a big section of fuselage (Heat damaged) partially embedded in a building.
CNN is fake news as usual. That's a 707, not a 737. Some of us can tell the difference.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:56
  #240 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jewitts View Post

Interesting image (Ghetty Images) just appeared on CNN. Shows a big section of fuselage (Heat damaged) partially embedded in a building.
Yes, that's a good photo of the SAHA Airlines crash in Karaj on Jan 14th 2019. (707)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_S...eing_707_crash
The BBC has rolled out old Learmount for Radio 4 and News At 6 so there goes all credibility for that organisation.
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