Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

[Fly.Buy]

Originally Posted by Lord Farringdon

The Iranians had just fired a bunch of ballistic missiles at US air bases in Iraq. What would you as an Iranian commander in the field think will happen next? Nothing? A strongly worded phone call to the Ayatollah from Trump? Or a US air strike on the airfield you are protecting? Poor communication would play a part along with poor training, poor leadership, tension and expectation if this accident ultimately proves to be a shoot down miscalculation.

i fully understand the circumstances and except your point, however the point I am trying to make is that if the Ukrainian flight was one of a line of aircraft at regular intervals taking off from an international airport on a well defined departure route then why was it singled out? Surely the weapons controller would have noted the regular flow of aircraft departing from this airport especially if any aircraft had already taken off ahead of this flight.

[WHBM]

Originally Posted by unmanned_droid

Especially as this aircraft was apparently about an hour behind schedule. Perhaps there weren't supposed to be any aircraft operating from the airport at that time (I guess someone here would know?) - the SAM unit wouldn't necessarily be tied in to the civil ATC or monitoring their freqs, let alone be actively talking to them on the 'phone or radio.

There were 9 scheduled jet departures 0400-0459, 3 0500-0559 (including the Ukrainian) and 4 0600-0659. It seems operating an hour or more late is also pretty standard there.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Airbubba

Iran CAO chief's position on the new information about the shoot-down from a CNN interview:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219

I will hazard a guess that Baghdad Bob got a new job. (yes, that is a joke ... he was an Iraqi)

Ali Abedzadeh said, "if a rocket or missile hits a plane, it will free fall."

Unless it doesn't fall apart in a milisecond.

Abedzadeh asked, "How can a plane be hit by rocket or missile" and then the pilot "try to turn back to the airport?"

If there are pilots on board and some control authority is present, that's how.
For a fellow who is the minister for the CAO, he seems to know very little about flying.

However, he also added that, "the black box of this very Ukrainian Boeing 737 is damaged.
Ukrainian Aviation experts arrived here in Tehran today. We had a session with them. From tomorrow they will start decoding the data."
"If the available equipment is not enough to get the content" Iran will outsource the boxes to "the experts from France or Canada," Abedzadeh said.

Ended on a positive note

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219

[RCyyz]

Originally Posted by Pilot DAR

The link to the Canadian Prime Minister's news conference ... is live at 15:00 eastern time now. Prime Minister Trudeau is being pretty definite about it, though repeats the need for a full and credible investigation. The reporters are asking good questions...

Here's quote from Prime Minister Trudeau as reported by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation:

Originally Posted by CBC

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says intelligence now indicates the Ukrainian passenger aircraft that crashed outside of Tehran on Wednesday, killing everyone on board — including 138 people destined for Canada — was shot down by an Iranian missile.

"We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence. The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile," he said during a news conference in Ottawa, adding that it might have been an unintentional act.

[TEEEJ]

Originally Posted by unworry

Bellingcat are currently geolocating the latest video and have stated the NYTimes have obtained a high resolution version of the video.

It seems legit.


From their twitter thread:




and heres a version of the latest telegram video without watermarks

I concur with geolocation.



Google Map Link

https://goo.gl/maps/zgxMVMUfAcuxyHDD6

Video at following post

Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

[Airbubba]

Originally Posted by Rocchi

Is it just me or is anyone at the accident site concerned about gathering body parts for future funeral arrangements. Do they even care.

In keeping with the mood of the thread. It looks more and more like a shoot down.

I thought that the Red Crescent and other rescue personnel appeared to be quite professional in their recovery of the human remains.

The scene looked to me much more organized than some other crash sites overseas, e.g.



One irony to a Westerner is that some of the photos posted by the ISNA (Iranian Students' News Agency) showed body parts without censorship but wedding photos of a bride not in a hijab were bowdlerized.

[MrsDoubtfire]

Originally Posted by unmanned_droid

Especially as this aircraft was apparently about an hour behind schedule. Perhaps there weren't supposed to be any aircraft operating from the airport at that time (I guess someone here would know?) - the SAM unit wouldn't necessarily be tied in to the civil ATC or monitoring their freqs, let alone be actively talking to them on the 'phone or radio.

Traffic in and around Tehran during the time in question according to Flightradar:
https://www.flightradar24.com/2020-0.../35.56,51.64/9

[BFM]

This is a still from the first frame showing the rapidly growing light source, which is consistent with an explosion. It appears to be partly shielded, suggesting it may be exploding under and in front of the port wing (the aircraft would be moving from right to left at the moment of impact) perhaps?

[retired guy]

New York Times has up to date “confirmation”of missile attack.
Always seemed only reasonable conclusion.
At least it’s not more bad news for Boeing which could have been terminal if the plane had simply exploded due to massive unprecedented explosion
very sad indeed for all concerned whatever the cause
RG

[Willard Whyte]

Originally Posted by Timbo 2019

Indeed. Not only would Iran's SAM defences been on edge at the time, is it not highly likely that the US would have been overhead watching what was happening?

Perhaps the SAM was intended for a US military spy plane?

It might suit both sides to conceal the cause.

Unlikely, normally different SAM designs for high level vs. low level targets, and the picture, if kosher, is of a low level system.

Originally Posted by retired guy

At least it’s not more bad news for Boeing which could have been terminal if the plane had simply exploded due to massive unprecedented explosion

RG

Which is probably why the Iranians responded rather too quickly with 'technical malfunction' as the cause. Bet they couldn't believe their luck when it turned out to be a 737.

[ThreeThreeMike]

Originally Posted by SASless

A SAM Head is found DURING the search of the downed aircraft crash site in Tehran, in a crash that took place during a very tense period of time due to Iran launching missiles into Iraq, with unusual puncture evidence, the Iranians do not want to release the CVR and Data Recorder, and we are wanting to look at something other than what is patently obvious?

When it looks like a Duck, waddles like a Duck, and quacks like a Duck.....you know...it might just be a Duck!


https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrain...1-missile.html

Originally Posted by Callsign Kilo

You can understand that due to the sheer volume of 737 flights worldwide on a daily basis, this devastating crash of a 3 year old airframe in a part of the world that has seen an unprecedented amount of alarming activity in recent days is being regarded by some as slightly more than coincidental.

In spite of the literary gymnastics by some posters that attempt to explain away the obvious, it's becoming quite clear the aircraft was shot down by an AA missile.

​​​​​​​The videos, photos of penetration damage, and most significantly the missile seeker head, reflect the fact that the totalitarian Iranian regime cannot prevent the ubiquitous smartphone from revealing that what had been suspected has indeed occurred.

[JanetFlight]

New clip more extended from a total new angle and duration

Instagram

Or
w w w.instagram.com/p/B7HdTwcFJgg/?igshid=1olk482vnapv
Close the Ws

[Avman]

Mrs Doubtfire: From what I could make out just looking at FR24 is that there were no departures for about 45 minutes prior to the AUI departure. Is that correct?

[pattern_is_full]

I don't put much weight on the meaning of the heading reversal. ALL of the following LOCA accidents involved a heading reversal or close approximation. None of them were "trying to return to the airport" - they were simply ~halfway through an out-of-control spiral at the moment of impact.

AF447
Colgan Air 3407
AirAsia 8501

I believe this aircraft simply just "rolled in" once the aerodynamics and/or the control systems and/or the crew were compromised by the missile strike.

[aox]

Originally Posted by Captain Biggles 101

9. Immediate statements that black boxes would not be shared with Boeing and US.
10. Early statements stating memory of black boxes damaged likely without detailed lengthy specialist attempts.

It just doesn't look good the overall picture emerging, and understandably nobody will admit what the real facts are.

Only a thorough genuine transparent investigation will tell, and you only get that if all sides want to reveal the truth. In the absence of an open transparent investigation, the events and information allows everyone to come to their own conclusions.

The reports of refusal to share the recorders outside the country were later called as due to poor translation.

A more recent report has

"... the black box of this very Ukrainian Boeing 737 is damaged. Ukrainian Aviation experts arrived here in Tehran today. We had a session with them. From tomorrow they will start decoding the data."

"If the available equipment is not enough to get the content Iran will outsource the boxes to the experts from France or Canada," Abedzadeh said.

Of direct concern to what you say there is will the investigation be carried out and openly published by the relevant authorities, including those coming from abroad, or will things be hampered by the state.

A spokesman for the Iranian regime has been quoted denouncing speculation about missiles as a form of psychological warfare. Not necessarily promising for the clarity of the ultimate result.

[unmanned_droid]

Originally Posted by WHBM

There were 9 scheduled jet departures 0400-0459, 3 0500-0559 (including the Ukrainian) and 4 0600-0659. It seems operating an hour or more late is also pretty standard there.

Thanks for the info. I believe the situation still leaves room for the aircraft to look potentially suspicious in the prevailing circumstances (not that this in any way excuses the actions of the operators).

MrsDoubtfire - your link didn't work for me, although that may be because of how my browser is configured.

A shoot down was the only viable conclusion I came to. I consider catastrophic failure of a wing tank and thus the loss of the aircraft, due to a UERF or FBO event to be even less likely than a SAM shootdown in the environment the aircraft was being operated in.

Debris trajectories are considered as part of the airworthiness requirements of the aircraft (as TDRacer mentions up thread - there is a requirement for +/- 5 degrees coverage forward and aft of a defined zone). On some aircraft designs, where it is not possible to avoid intersecting the wing with high energy damage, purposely dry volumes are designed in to try to stop fuel venting over parts of the engine hot enough to ignite the fuel. QF32 showed that a turbine could fail and penetrate the wing, and ignite fuel, but that a fire was likely to put itself out, either due to impinging air on the outside blowing the fire out, sheer liquid fuel quantity extinguishing the fire or due to a lack of air on the inside of the tank - fire uses up the bay free air. QF32 also shows that you can almost completely sever the front spar and maintain adequate structural integrity for normal flight and landing. This is not a design case!

[Pilot DAR]

I know that the insurance for my planes specify exclusions for damage resulting from an "act of war". Would being downed by a missile be considered an act of war? I recall that the US [eventually] paid out the Iran airline when they shot their airliner down many years ago. I don't recall what was the outcome of the MH17 shoot down. Would an airline be able to collect on their liability and aircraft hull insurance when it was determined to have been shot down?

[Lord Farringdon]

Originally Posted by BFM

This is a still from the first frame showing the rapidly growing light source, which is consistent with an explosion. It appears to be partly shielded, suggesting it may be exploding under and in front of the port wing (the aircraft would be moving from right to left at the moment of impact) perhaps?

Interesting. Not sure if that may just be a lighting artifact between video frames. However, if it is a shadow cast on initial detonation it would not be on the port (left) side since that is in line of sight with the camera and therefore 'under the wing' would be visible, not hidden. The missile appears to approach the aircraft from off centre and to the right. You get a sense for this when you compare the missile track against the post impact aircraft track. So it is more likely the missile approached and detonated on the starboard (right hand) side of the aircraft in which case the initiation of the warhead may have been partly shielded by the fuselage which seems more likely in this case. Not trying to 'make this fit', but this would also support right hand side fragmentation damage alluded to earlier especially the hole punched through the vertical stabilizer from right to left and the (probable) right hand aft engine cowl / tail-cone assembly.
All very sad.

[Ian W]

This seems relatively conclusive "New Video shows 'missile' hit Ukrainian Airlines Boeing 737 before it crashed killing 176

Daily Mail Story

Video of missile and explosion

[Profit Max]

I did my own geolocation of the video and found the same (didn't refresh for a while so I didn't see comments - good to have independent confirmation). Video was shot from here: 35.489223, 50.906857, and the explosion happened in North-West to North-North-Westerly direction.

According to my estimates, the sound of the explosion arrives 10.8 seconds after the flash, which means the video was shot from around 3.7 km away from the explosion. Last known altitude from flightradar24 is 7925 feet. Ground altitude is around 1.1 km. So with some trigonometry, we find that the ground distance from the point where the video was taken is around 3.5 km. With the location of the person taking the video and the line of sight, the explosion happens roughly in this area: 35.5161, 50.9287

However, it appears, the aircraft travelled around 17 seconds between the last ADS-B transmission and the time of being hit by the missile based on the intersection of the presumed flight path and the line of sight from the video. Altitude would then have been approximately 800 feet higher, so ground distance from person taking video would only have been 3.3 km, putting the revised location of the explosion in this area: 35.5140, 50.9263. The angular altitude of the explosion as seen from the position of where the video was taken would then be around 25°, which seems to be consistent with the video (but someone should check this in detail).

Working assumption for the reason of the missing 17 seconds would be that there were two missiles launched (as suggested by the intelligence from the US). The first missile was launched at took out ADS-B and radio at least. The explosion is heard and the person turns on the video camera just in time to catch the second missile hit the plane.