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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:16
  #261 (permalink)  
 
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Quite some newbies here, troll accounts??

It seems that some are blind for all the evidence, she was shot down, period.
- Iran was in a high state of alert
- No way an engine failure on a 737 will result in a crash like this
- All data stopped instantly, not the case when a engine fails.
- She flew straight to a SAM site
- Missile head found
- Damage on aircraft consistent with an external explosion
- And more videos emerging of the accident happening, the latest is quite obvious.
- Tehran is a big city so why would anyone doubt there where people outside is beyond me...
- Buldozing the crash site... something to hide??

Think all what you think, this was a shoot down.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:18
  #262 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by derjodel
Quite a lucky catch! I mean, I donĎt usually just hang out in a cold recording dark sky and some buildings for no apparent reason.
You don't know the reason why he started filming. Maybe he heard the launch? Or this is the second impact of the rumoured two missies?
And after all, somebody also filmed the first plane into the WTC by accident, with the huge amount of cameraphones around, chances are better and better something interesting is filmed, if not by pure chance.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:20
  #263 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrasz
The media frenzy is getting out of control so it is impossible at the moment to assess the accuracy of any report. However IF it does turn out to be an accidential missile launch, then the degree of incompetence on all levels of the Iranian government is much higher than I ever imagined. Again IF, then surely someone should have realised by dawn that one of their AA missiles is missing...
Or quickly removed the launch equipment, keep schtum, deny everything, like MH17. It would not be the first time such a mistake has happened - not least Iran Air 655 which showed incompetence in a supposedly sophisticated US naval force. Why would you be surprised that Iranian government forces that you strangely appear to hold in such high regard would or could be incompetent?

Has the 737 Max debacle shown Boeing to be competent? Discuss.

People make mistakes. Bad mistakes. The consequences can be horrific.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:30
  #264 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Auxtank
Are we watching the same video? I see the left to right trail left by something but I don't see the aircraft on fire falling right to left.
I would guess that the aircraft didn't burst into flames immediately. The other videos of the aircraft on fire just before impact are fairly low to the ground. From the point of loss of ADS-B data to crash site is 2-3 minutes of flight time. This video only shows 15 or so seconds post alleged intercept.

Also, look at the following coordinates: 35.489244, 50.907144

Camera angle about north-northwest from there.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:36
  #265 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RTM Boy
Or quickly removed the launch equipment, keep schtum, deny everything, like MH17. It would not be the first time such a mistake has happened - not least Iran Air 655 which showed incompetence in a supposedly sophisticated US naval force. Why would you be surprised that Iranian government forces that you strangely appear to hold in such high regard would or could be incompetent?
People make mistakes. Bad mistakes. The consequences can be horrific.
I think you totally misunderstood my comment. The thought that some trigger happy Iranian AA unit fired the missile out of sheer incompetence is entirely plausible. I'm simply saying that should that have happened, the Iranian authorities would have acted with much less openness. From the reporting of the accident so far, I don't see any attempt at a cover-up. In Iran ANY information that is released to the public is carefully scrutinized, and anything that would put the regime in a bad light is supressed. What I do find inconcievable is that if indeed this was a FF incident, the news of it would not have reached the highest levels even before the rest of the world was aware of anything.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:39
  #266 (permalink)  
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Smoking gun, end of conversation.
................
Come on, keep an open mind...this is an investigation.
We're pilots right? We observe what we see for what it is at the time, apply the procedure, then observe for more information, and reassess.... right?

Sure, discuss here, and even speculate, but, do you want to be the pilot here who announces that their mind is closed to more information about the event? Pilots with closed minds miss new and possibly important information (and sometimes end up looking foolish).
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:40
  #267 (permalink)  
 
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Possibly linked earlier but I'll attach it here for reference. The Iran Civil Aviation Organization Preliminary Accident Report in Farsi and English.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf
Iran-CAO-PS752-Initial-Report.pdf (572.5 KB, 222 views)
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:52
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A few extracts from the link that Airbubba has provided:
The crash site track indicates that the aircraft was first approaching west to exit the airport boundary, but turned right following a technical problem, and had a track showing returning to the airport.
This is a prelim report, "technical problem" details to follow, be amplified, or perhaps be gone once CVR/FDR analysis completed.
The gathered evidence at the crash site shows that impact point with the ground was a recreational park and after the initial impact, other impacts were also observed, wrecking the aircraft fuselage spread across all the track at the accident site.
Parts of this aircraft came down at multiple locations.
The rescue and search operation team found the Aircraft black boxes, including the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), and is currently held by the investigation team of Iran AAIB. Both devices have been damaged as a result of the accident and catching fire. The memory parts of both recorders are in good conditions, though the physical damage to their main components is noticeable.
Good news.
A special group was formed and any laser attacks and electromagnetic (radioactive) threats and unlawful actions have been rejected by conducting the relevant sampling and analysis up to now.
A revision may be pending ... but they do rule out a l@ser attack so far ...
An initial notification was sent to Ukraine as the State of registry and the operator, the NTSB as the State of design and manufacture, Sweden (SHK), Canada (TSB), and Afghanistan CAO as the States whose citizens suffered fatal injuries in this accident.
Ukraine requested to participate in the accident investigation process, and introduced a go-team to identify and transfer their nationals' corpses, and perform other responsibilities resting with the country registering and operating the aircraft in such conditions, which has already arrived in Iran.
In accordance with the Annex 13, the investigation team would like to invite all the States involved in the accident to participate in the investigation process.
I have a recommendation for fellow PPRuNers:
please do not impugn the motives of the investigation team nor the Investigating body.
I ask this due to remembering some vitriol directed at BEA in some threads as we all discussed the AF 447 accident and beat the horses dead ...
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 19:02
  #269 (permalink)  
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The link to the Canadian Prime Minister's news conference should be here:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cha...rash-1.5420398

It is live at 15:00 eastern time now. Prime Minister Trudeau is being pretty definite about it, though repeats the need for a full and credible investigation. The reporters are asking good questions...
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 19:05
  #270 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrasz
I'm simply saying that should that have happened, the Iranian authorities would have acted with much less openness. From the reporting of the accident so far, I don't see any attempt at a cover-up. In Iran ANY information that is released to the public is carefully scrutinized, and anything that would put the regime in a bad light is supressed. What I do find inconcievable is that if indeed this was a FF incident, the news of it would not have reached the highest levels even before the rest of the world was aware of anything.
They can't cover up evidence on the site, but they can keep denying a shoot down, even forever. They can try to influence the investigation or blocking it at some point sending all foreigners home and disagreeing on finding. Their CAA Chief is fully playing this part already, but isn't said that someone else won't be able to let the truth come out.There is too many smartphones around to control them all. Some Iranians are and will continue sharing what they have photographed or filmed. Use of VPN is common to work around censorship. Iran Gov.t. can suppress and say anything they want within the country, but not in the rest of the world. They cannot silence the families of the 76 non-Iranian victims, neither their respective Gov.ts, or even the airline itself. Iran Gov.t is not stupid, by looking at how the played the "no effects revenge", I think it's quite possible that at some point they might cave in and admit, trial and execute some unlucky but factually responsible individual. I think that would be their "best" way to handle the aftermath of this tragedy.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 19:07
  #271 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by paperHanger
Pause the video and use the slider, you can clearly see to missile path all the way to the point of impact ...
There is no way for me to verify the video; i.e. who knows when and where it was taken.
However, as someone with 153 combat missions over North Viet Nam back in the day, I've seen countless SA-2 missiles launched and more than a few of them hitting aircraft. From what I see when using the slider to slow down the video, I'd bet my house that it shows a SAM of some kind killing an aircraft of some kind. It looks just like the SAMs I saw in Viet Nam. Could it be the Ukrainian aircraft? I can't say.

Could it be an accidental shoot down by the Iranian Military? After living in Iran for a number of years when I was serving as a flight instructor in their F-14 program I observed a good number of absolutely astounding failures of common sense by my IIAF colleagues. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this was an accidental missile launched committed by a member of the Iranian military.......... not surprised at all.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 19:23
  #272 (permalink)  
 
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Might be useful to some. I created these for my own investigation, then decided I might as well share them. Of course, a significant assumption is that the source video, posted somewhere earlier in this thread, is genuine.

For pretty accurate maintenance of direction of viewing, more or less the same section of a building has been maintained in the bottom left corner. The scale is identical in all pictures. The path of the moving light (missile/projectile/con trick/whatever) is therefore defined by the sequence of pictures, moving from from top to bottom. The pictures are not, however, accurately equally spaced in time (although they aren't far from it).

My own conclusion, FWIW, is that the moving light is a missile/projectile/con trick/whatever. Take your pick or invent your own.







Last edited by Erwin Schroedinger; 9th Jan 2020 at 19:41. Reason: Correcting a glitch in the previous Reason for Editing. Happy now?
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 19:35
  #273 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fly.Buy
Like everyone else I am Just wondering how this set of tragic circumstances came about (if true about the missile). Was the Ukrainian 737 the first flight out of Tehran? If not then what was the flight in front and how many minutes ahead was it? Were there many flights that departed ahead of the Ukrainian flight and did they depart on a similar pattern? If there had been a busy departure schedule ahead of this flight I wonder what made the weapons controller single this particular flight out? If indeed this was the cause of this tragedy.
The Iranians had just fired a bunch of ballistic missiles at US air bases in Iraq. What would you as an Iranian commander in the field think will happen next? Nothing? A strongly worded phone call to the Ayatollah from Trump? Or a US air strike on the airfield you are protecting? Poor communication would play a part along with poor training, poor leadership, tension and expectation if this accident ultimately proves to be a shoot down miscalculation.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 19:38
  #274 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mozella
There is no way for me to verify the video; i.e. who knows when and where it was taken.
Surely not an official verification but on the Internet if a given picture or video was posted before, someone will be able to show where and when.
So, if can't be shown that the video was already "known", either it has been quickly and skillfully fabricated, or someone had the good luck of possessing an unrelated but very fitting video to share at the very best time. Both things are possible, but how much likely?
Then regarding the question about why someone would have been out in the cold early hours with a smartphone ready to film, I think it's very possible that many in Tehran got to know of the Iranian launches, or even if they didn't, they went out to document any possible development, even if that could have been the last thing they did in their life. And they filmed, survived, and shared, we should be thankful.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 19:52
  #275 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrasz
I think you totally misunderstood my comment. The thought that some trigger happy Iranian AA unit fired the missile out of sheer incompetence is entirely plausible. I'm simply saying that should that have happened, the Iranian authorities would have acted with much less openness. From the reporting of the accident so far, I don't see any attempt at a cover-up. In Iran ANY information that is released to the public is carefully scrutinized, and anything that would put the regime in a bad light is supressed. What I do find inconcievable is that if indeed this was a FF incident, the news of it would not have reached the highest levels even before the rest of the world was aware of anything.
Perhaps the authorities didnít know. If someone messed up, they might be reluctant to advertise the fact to whoever their superiors are for fear of whatever terrible punishment the regime might administer, and might simply have got out of there very quickly. It did happen very early in the morning. The regime might not have controlled any info because they didnít know there was a need to.

Both Canadian and Ukrainian officials are now saying they believe the plane was downed by a missile.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 19:52
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Iran CAO chief's position on the new information about the shoot-down from a CNN interview:

The head of Iran's Civil Aviation Authority is questioning the US allegation.Speaking to CNN, Ali Abedzadeh said, "if a rocket or missile hits a plane, it will free fall."

Abedzadeh asked, "How can a plane be hit by rocket or missile" and then the pilot "try to turn back to the airport?"

He also told CNN the plane's black boxes are damaged and Iran may need help decoding them.

"Generally speaking, Iran has the potential and know-how to decode the black box. Everybody knows that," Abedzadeh said.

However, he also added that, "the black box of this very Ukrainian Boeing 737 is damaged. Ukrainian Aviation experts arrived here in Tehran today. We had a session with them. From tomorrow they will start decoding the data."

"If the available equipment is not enough to get the content" Iran will outsource the boxes to "the experts from France or Canada," Abedzadeh said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 19:53
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As a certain POTUS learned back in the 1970s, it's not always the act that dooms you, it's the coverup.
If it indeed was an accidental or inadvertent shootdown, Iran would be well served to come clean as soon as they can verify what happened, apologize (along the obligatory effort to shift the blame to 'The Great Satan'), and pay out some reparations. Because the truth will come out - too much evidence is out there - and denying it just makes you look worse.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 19:54
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Originally Posted by Lord Farringdon
The Iranians had just fired a bunch of ballistic missiles at US air bases in Iraq. What would you as an Iranian commander in the field think will happen next? Nothing? A strongly worded phone call to the Ayatollah from Trump? Or a US air strike on the airfield you are protecting? Poor communication would play a part along with poor training, poor leadership, tension and expectation if this accident ultimately proves to be a shoot down miscalculation.
Especially as this aircraft was apparently about an hour behind schedule. Perhaps there weren't supposed to be any aircraft operating from the airport at that time (I guess someone here would know?) - the SAM unit wouldn't necessarily be tied in to the civil ATC or monitoring their freqs, let alone be actively talking to them on the 'phone or radio.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 19:54
  #279 (permalink)  
 
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New York Times showing the video and claiming they've verified it:

Video verified by The Times appears to show a missile hitting a plane near Tehran airport around the time and place a Ukrainian jet crashed.

After the apparent missile strike, they interview a local resident who says he heard the explosion, thought the US was attacking, and rushed to his cellar/bunker. So it seems people in Tehran were very much on edge, expecting an American reprisal.

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Old 9th Jan 2020, 20:00
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Bellingcat are currently geolocating the latest video and have stated the NYTimes have obtained a high resolution version of the video.

It seems legit.


From their twitter thread:
We are analyzing this new video supposedly showing a mid-air explosion. By our initial estimation, the video shows an apartment block in western Parand (35.489414, 50.906917), facing northeast. This perspective is directed approximately towards the known trajectory of #PS752.
and heres a version of the latest telegram video without watermarks

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