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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 10th Jan 2020, 00:28
  #301 (permalink)  
 
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For what it's worth here's my take on this.
I do think there may have been an initial technical fault which may or may not have been communicated to ATC which caused the aircraft to turn back towards the airport. From what I see the remains were taking a distinctly SE track. This may well be the root of the first claims that a "technical issue" had downed the aircraft. From what I can gather in the various translated statements is that the aircraft did not declare an emergency, but that does not rule out a non-urgency communication of a minor problem. Apparently this aircraft had already left tower frequency and was either in the process of changing enroute or had already done so, so any comms would unlikely to have been with local at this point.

Having worked airfields with air defences in climbout and approach lanes I can assure you that there will be comms between tower and those sites, maybe not so between the enroute sector and the missile battery. Maybe we have a situation where pilot knows he is turning back, sector knows he is turning back but tower and missile site are still unaware.

Add to this the heightened state of the defences, the steady stream of NW'ly outbounds and suddenly an aircraft appears (reappears) heading towards the airfield. It's not expected, no communication from anyone as to what it might be and a conclusion jumped to by the battery crew before anyone can get the message to the right people in time.
Whatever the cause, this remains a tragedy and thoughts go out to all involved and affected.

PS. We all know the Aviate, Navigate, Communicate mantra oft repeated on here. In the current clmate, especially in missile protected regions maybe that last point starts to take on a higher priority.
Stay safe.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 01:33
  #302 (permalink)  
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/w...h-ukraine.html
  • Jan. 9, 2020 Updated 8:56 p.m. ET

American satellites, designed to track missile launches, detected the firing of the Iranian short-range interceptor. United States intelligence agencies later picked up Iranian communications confirming that the system brought down the Ukrainian airliner, officials said.
Iranian officials questioned the Western account, saying the plane would have exploded if hit by a missile. The air defense system used Wednesday, however, is designed to explode near aircraft, creating shrapnel that takes a plane out of the sky, rather than directly hitting it.

In addition to denying responsibility, Iran invited the National Transportation Safety Board of the United States to assist in the investigation despite previous reports that the Americans would not be involved, according to correspondence reviewed by The Times. The board assigned an investigator to the crash, a spokesman said on Thursday evening.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 01:42
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NTSB media release tonight.


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Old 10th Jan 2020, 02:14
  #304 (permalink)  
 
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Opposition advocacy journalist Malachy Browne gives this analysis of the video locales.



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Old 10th Jan 2020, 02:17
  #305 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe there was a drone watching it to detect launches?
The satellites do a better job of that, as reported. "Drones" usually operate at higher altitudes.

Strange that it took so long for the videos to emerge.
The phone footage was on line within only about six hours of the accident. You think that a long time?

Last edited by Icarus2001; 10th Jan 2020 at 02:30.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 02:35
  #306 (permalink)  
 
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The maps on the Aviation Herald depict the following sequence:

- Aircraft departs airport heading northwest and paralleling the Karaj River.
- Missile strike video recorded with camera pointing northeast from near the Karaj River (town of Parand) as aircraft passes right to left - still tracking NW.
- no radio transmissions or XPDR received after approximately that point
- then the track turns right to SE to point of ground impact.

Is there evidence contradicting that sequence?

I've seen no evidence whatsover that the aircraft was hit by a missile while travelling "back to the airport" - and video that implies it was hit while travelling NW enroute Kyiv. But I have an open mind if there is additional evidence.

Crash: UIA B738 at Tehran on Jan 8th 2020, lost height after departure, aircraft on fire after missile hit
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 02:59
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Originally Posted by SASless
Profit,

Very interesting analysis.....now I remember why I enjoyed Math Studies in University.....it allowed for a good Kip after Lunch.

Can you offer some suggestion of where the Missiles originated from based upon what you have discerned from all your number crunching?
Some local people in Teheran suggested that, missile is originated from here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/35...3!4d50.9051985

They said it is some sort of air defence military object. Missile specifications allow easily to intercept that plane at 2400m altitude from the site.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 03:37
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Originally Posted by Avman
Mrs Doubtfire: From what I could make out just looking at FR24 is that there were no departures for about 45 minutes prior to the AUI departure. Is that correct?
Correct. From the FlightRadar24 blog, it looks like PS752 was on a normal path for western departures:


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Old 10th Jan 2020, 03:40
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hooke.s_law: 27 flights were counted before, in&out Tehran airport.
27 flights went in and out of the Tehran airport...WITH TRANSPONDERS working. Something happened to this airplane, that cut all of it's communications, including transponder. The plane was headed practically right at Prada's air defense site, not squawking, not talking, in the dark, toward soldiers on high alert, anticipating an attack.

Naturally, they shot it down.

I think the key question then is, what caused the transponder and radios to cease working, at the end of the radar plot?
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 03:54
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Originally Posted by Takwis
27 flights went in and out of the Tehran airport...WITH TRANSPONDERS working. Something happened to this airplane, that cut all of it's communications, including transponder.
But the transponder WAS working. As evidenced by flightradar24 having the flight path.

The video showing the alleged rocket impact on the plane was geolocated, it was made very close to the point of the last transponder transmission. So the failure of the transponder is the consequence of the plane being shot down, not its cause.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 05:20
  #311 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Prada
Some local people in Teheran suggested that, missile is originated from here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/35...3!4d50.9051985

They said it is some sort of air defence military object. Missile specifications allow easily to intercept that plane at 2400m altitude from the site.
That is one of a couple of interesting installations, however the TOR is a mobile platform and would have been dispersed if there was an expectation of an attack. Movement of launchers would have bben part of the contingency if the attack into Iraq was planned with a modicum of depth.

The missile in the latest video taken from South of the track shows the plume of the SRM of the 9M331. That precludes the flight distance from the prepared sites that have been suggested. The max engagement range of an target is beyond the motor life, the burn time is a known value, and is less than that needed at the velocity of the missile. Anything over 5Km, there would be no SRM burn plume visible at detonation.

The video of the detonation at altitude is more than likely the second missile fired for various reasons.

The war head on these missiles will devastate the aircrafts systems but is not likely to completely destruct the aircraft of that size. It damages from fragmentation dispersed radially around the center of the weapon body. With CLOS it is not often going to actually hit a target, but a transport category aircraft is a simple target. Even IR missiles miss on many occasions.. (recall Arkia)

The 9m331 warhead is frag, don't believe it is a continuous rod though.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 05:30
  #312 (permalink)  
 
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Looks like Boeing also has an invite to be guests of the Revolutionary Guards. Their visas will be ready as soon as the site is completely bulldozed. I hope I'm joking but I know that I'm probably not.

From the Associated Press:

Iran invites Boeing to probe plane crash that killed 176


By NASSER KARIMI and JOSEPH KRAUSS 3 minutes ago

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran has invited Boeing to take part in the investigation into a Ukrainian jetliner that crashed earlier this week at a time of soaring tensions between Washington and Tehran, killing all 176 people on board, state media reported Friday.

The move came after Western leaders said the plane appeared to have been unintentionally hit by a surface-to-air missile near Tehran hours after Iran launched ballistic missiles at two U.S. bases in Iraq to avenge the killing of its top general in an American airstrike.

The ballistic missile attack on the bases caused no casualties, raising hopes that the standoff over the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani would end relatively peacefully. But Iran has sent mixed signals over whether its retaliation is complete.

The state-run IRNA news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying Iran “has invited both Ukraine and the Boeing company to participate in the investigations.” The spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, said it will also welcome experts from other countries’ whose citizens died in the crash.

Iran had initially said it would not allow Boeing to take part in the probe, going against prevailing international norms on crash investigations. It later invited the U.S. accident-investigating agency to take part in the investigation.The National Transportation Safety Board said late Thursday that it would “evaluate its level of participation,” but its role could be limited by U.S. sanctions on Iran. U.S. officials have also expressed concern about sending employees to Iran because of the heightened tensions.

Under rules set by a United Nations aviation organization, the NTSB is entitled to participate because the crash involved a Boeing 737-800 jet that was designed and built in the U.S.

There was no immediate comment from Boeing.

U.S., Canadian and British officials said Thursday it is “highly likely” that Iran shot down the Boeing 737 that crashed near Tehran late Tuesday. U.S. officials said the jetliner might have been mistakenly identified as a threat.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose country lost at least 63 citizens in the downing, said “we have intelligence from multiple sources including our allies and our own intelligence.”

“The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile,” he said.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison offered similar statements. Morrison also said it appeared to be a mistake. “All of the intelligence as presented to us today does not suggest an intentional act,” he said.

Mousavi said Iran asks Canada’s prime minister and any other government to “provide any information they have to the investigation committee.”

Iranian officials have ruled out a missile strike, and initially said the plane appeared to have crashed because of technical difficulties.

A preliminary Iranian investigative report released Thursday said that the airliner pilots never made a radio call for help and that the aircraft was trying to turn back for the airport when the burning plane went down.

The Iranian report suggested that a sudden emergency struck the Boeing 737, operated by Ukrainian International Airlines, just minutes after taking off from Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran early Wednesday.

Before the U.S. assessment, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency quoted Hasan Rezaeifa, the head of the civil aviation accident investigation commission, claiming that “the topics of rocket, missile or anti-aircraft system is ruled out.”

___
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 05:59
  #313 (permalink)  
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Amazing statements made here based on Twitter, insagram videos of bad quality, conspiratorial or Iranian opposition web sites, but OK Trudeau and Trump said they had intelligence proving it , so let's wait until if they share it .The photo posted by Airbubba in post 317 indeed refresh some memories for those old enough to remember this guy , you could add Colin Powell to that.
I smell another big rat .. but maybe it is just my suspicion nature.
As said it again , the aircraft was on the SID under the control of Merhabad ACC. and was cleared to FL260 , so mis-identification is very unlikely and as it is a joint Aciv/mil ATC facility the ,military would have had the details . The attitude of the Iranian CAA does not lend towards a cover up ,, For the rest... a unsupervised a trigger happy revolutionary guard ? maybe, anything is possible..
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 06:37
  #314 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Captain Biggles 101
It's just very suspicious all the facts and emerging snippets of information together on this one.

3. The fact it was a Ukrainian aircraft yet again, third time either shot down or aircraft disappears.
What do you mean ?
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 06:40
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Originally Posted by JanetFlight
Oh my God...if this notice is true this sounds plain stupid and abnormal...!!!???
Iran authorities are bulldozing the crash site...Really!?
https://www.businessinsider.com/iran...igation-2020-1
That piece of equipment is not a bulldozer, it is a loader, and will likely be being used to lift heavy pieces of aircraft for recovery. In that picture there is no evidence of the site being bulldozed. There is a significant amount of imagery coming from the site and there is no imagery of the site being bulldozed.

In fact the article reads: "Iran has used bulldozers to move around pieces of debris from a crashed Ukrainian passenger jet, potentially destroying evidence which could help determine exactly what happened to it. Images and reports from the crash site, just outside Tehran, show at least one bulldozer working in the debris at the site"

The article doesn't say they are bulldozing the site, and the article wrongly refers to a picture of "at least one" loader as a bulldozer (in typical journalistic hyperbole).

To be honest I don't even think the site needs to be preserved, there is already enough evidence including video and reported radar tracking of missile attacks. And the Iran government has nothing to gain by shooting down a Ukrainian plane filled with Iranian passport holders so it was obviously an accident or rogue activity. Iran still wants to function as country and closing down air travel does not do it any benefit whatsover.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 06:50
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Originally Posted by Ian W
This seems relatively conclusive "New Video shows 'missile' hit Ukrainian Airlines Boeing 737 before it crashed killing 176

Daily Mail Story

Video of missile and explosion
Seems they misidentified the launch area though? I believe the missile need to have come from the sand-bag-like base (as was pointed out very early) in the _right_ of the image, not to the left as daily mail drew. Its from opposite side of the flight path compared to the video so the missile can not have come from the left there, too.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 08:34
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Still Frame taken from the video posted under discussion - with bellingcat and clever chaps here doing the geo-locating above.
Frame is 0.8 seconds after explosion.


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Old 10th Jan 2020, 10:38
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Not good news; unless all pieces have been tagged, carefully collected and removed to a hangar somewhere for reconstruction.

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Old 10th Jan 2020, 11:07
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Has there been any expert analysis of the sound which follows the visual flash after a corresponding delay due to distance?

To my ears it is the sudden sharp sound of an explosive, rather than any noise due to e.g. an engine failure. And an internal explosive would likely be much smaller and not anywhere near so loud. This seems to be further evidence of a missile.
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Old 10th Jan 2020, 11:15
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There appear to be some very naive comments on this thread and an assumption that in Iran there exists a fully integrated and coordinated civil military system. History tells us that even more mature and capable States around the world get it wrong.

In 1998 the USS Vincennes, a state of art guided missile cruiser with highly trained warfare specialists, shoots down an Iranian Airbus flying south out of Bandar Abbas, with the correct squawk, following an airway and in contact with ATC. 290 deaths

The shooting down of a UK GR4 by a US Patriot Missile in 2003 (Gulf War II). Edited thanks

The shooting down of MH17 over Ukraine by Separatists or others unknown - 298 deaths

Aeroflot 902 in 1962 with 80+ deaths during an air defence exercise

Siberian 1812 in 2001 during a Ukrain military exercise 78 dead

There are lots of examples of deliberate and accidental shootdowns across the decades. Some of the accidental ones will be down to poor procedures, not following safety routines, incompetence, fear, disregard for safety, ignorance, lack of identification equipment, lack of training or a whole combination of everything. Even a highly technical system can get it wrong and present to someone on high alert, a hostile target that is in fact a civilian aircraft with innocent souls onboard. I echo the comments of a previous poster in regardless of how much more fuel it will cost, shut such airspace down and do not allow aircraft to fly across conflict areas.

May they all rest in peace,

Last edited by Widger; 10th Jan 2020 at 12:00.
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