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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:57
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Originally Posted by Lord Farringdon

Finally, these three images of the what I am guessing is the remains of 2L. Note the white streaks around the frame. More evidence of the intensity of the fire on that side of the aircraft. The RH engine tail cone and aft cowling. (can someone confirm this is in fact the RH. I am assuming so since it appears less burnt. Note the hole.
The engine core exhaust and aft cowl are airframer- supplied (i.e. not supplied with engine) and are bolt-on interchangeable between left and right engines. So probably can't distinguish from that pic which side it came from without serial numbers, or for instance if exhaust was still attached on other engine, etc.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 16:58
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Iranians call U.S. conclusion not true

The head of Iran's civil aviation authority has said the U.S. conclusion is simply not true, CBS News senior foreign correspondent Elizabeth Palmer reports from Tehran. A website affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard called the U.S. intelligence a conspiracy cooked up by Iran's enemies, Palmer reports.

BY ALEX SUNDBY
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:04
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Radars turned on and missiles fired... Not a proof... but, then again, if that´s what you want you´ll likely have to wait.... forever to make the conclusion.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:07
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https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrain...icials-believe
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:11
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Quite a bit more detail now coming into the news, about the missile from multiple sources - as described on here from the word go.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:17
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Originally Posted by andrasz
Nonsense. The IRG answers directly to the supreme leader (not to the civilian government). It is a disciplined and well trained force and it does exactly what is ordered, nothing more nothing less. The regular Iranian military is another story, sheer incompetence from their part is conceivable, however rather unlikely given the apparent unrestricted access to the accident site for local journalists. If there were anything to hide, there are few better than the Iranian authorities for acheiving it.
Nonsense is it? You must have contacts very high up in the Iranian regime. The BBC’s Middle East Security correspondent Frank Gardner has just said multiple sources are claiming an accidental ‘anti-aircraft missile’ launch struck one of the plane’s engines. We will of course have to wait and see, because wisely I’m not going to claim certainty about any aspect of this tragic crash resulting in such loss of life. Nothing more, nothing less.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:24
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:31
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If that is true - then that is the most significant development in the last 24 hours and most worrying.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:33
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The NY Times is also reporting the missile story. Included in their report, however, is this interesting tidbit:

. . . the Iranians, through the International Civil Aviation Organization, invited the National Transportation Safety Board of the United States to assist in the investigation despite previous reports that the Americans would not be involved, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/w...h-ukraine.html
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:34
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I think that last video removes all doubt...
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:38
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WOW...
Damn, that looks very clear to me
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:54
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Originally Posted by Auxtank
Last doubt of what? That the aircraft suffered an explosion in flight?
There is clearly a missile going upward, left to right then a detonation and we see the aircraft on fire falling right to left. If the reports coming out in US publications now are true, that may have been the second missile launched and why the man was filming, having seen/heard the first missile detonate.
Edit to add: Obviously with the caveat this is an authentic video.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:57
  #253 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RTM Boy
Nonsense is it? You must have contacts very high up in the Iranian regime. The BBC’s Middle East Security correspondent Frank Gardner has just said multiple sources are claiming an accidental ‘anti-aircraft missile’ launch struck one of the plane’s engines. We will of course have to wait and see, because wisely I’m not going to claim certainty about any aspect of this tragic crash resulting in such loss of life. Nothing more, nothing less.
The media frenzy is getting out of control so it is impossible at the moment to assess the accuracy of any report. However IF it does turn out to be an accidential missile launch, then the degree of incompetence on all levels of the Iranian government is much higher than I ever imagined. Again IF, then surely someone should have realised by dawn that one of their AA missiles is missing...
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 17:59
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Originally Posted by PuraVidaTransport
There is clearly a missile going upward, left to right then a detonation and we see the aircraft on fire falling right to left. If the reports coming out in US publications now are true, that may have been the second missile launched and why the man was filming, having seen/heard the first missile detonate.
Edit to add: Obviously with the caveat this is an authentic video.
Are we watching the same video? I see the left to right trail left by something but I don't see the aircraft on fire falling right to left.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:00
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Moment of impact just out of shot

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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:05
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It appears the fire is no longer visible from about the 7 second mark. Might this be the plane turning right and descending behind the mountain range?
If the video is fake then someone did a fantastic job what with the CMOS rolling shutter effect, color change of explosion, etc, etc.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:06
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Originally Posted by Interflug
But the open access for local media to the crash site (actually more than would have been allowed in western countries) on the other hand is an indication to the contrary, that the Iranian government has nothing to hide there.

Now that they got caught, maybe the media access policy in Iran is about to change.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:07
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Pause the video and use the slider, you can clearly see to missile path all the way to the point of impact ...



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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:11
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Originally Posted by Auxtank
Are we watching the same video? I see the left to right trail left by something but I don't see the aircraft on fire falling right to left.
I'm guessing the line of sight is obscured by the mountains on the right of the Parot flight path as the plane attempted a return.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 18:16
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Originally Posted by derjodel
Quite a lucky catch! I mean, I don‘t usually just hang out in a cold recording dark sky and some buildings for no apparent reason.
Maybe there was something unusual going on already. News citing US military sources say there were two SAM launches. Maybe it was the second missile that hit.
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