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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 11th Jan 2020, 13:58
  #421 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by liider
From this it appears to me that they started to assemble parts of the Airframe on a separate site. Note the remaining wreckage in the background on the left. Investigation perhaps?
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:01
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Originally Posted by Tetsuo
From this it appears to me that they started to assemble parts of the Airframe on a separate site. Note the remaining wreckage in the background on the left. Investigation perhaps?
I believe - from the BBC News report earlier - that those gentlemen are part of the Ukrainian investigation party and indeed that photo was taken by one of the investigators interviewed for the BBC report.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:04
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Originally Posted by one post only!
You probably are. I am no fan of a trump at all, but the tension and bad feeling started well before Trump. It began decades ago. But more recently don’t forget the Americans that were killed by Iranian militia. Or the oil tankers. Or the Saudi oil fields. Be under no illusion this is not trumps fault. But both sides can go back many years with claim and counter claim. This isn’t one persons fault. This is deep seated hatred and distrust.

The main lesson in this is, if airlines won’t stop operating into war zones then the regulators need to do their jobs and take steps preemptively to prevent this kind of thing from happening. They need to grow some balls and as soon as tensions rise ban flights. That was a sudden escalation won’t catch people out.
Regulators don't regulate between nations.
ICAO agreements. , also don't regulate, they only provide a framework for like minded compliance.
In the end it's up to the laws in the nation to decide what gets regulated in the civilian world (but this was a military action).

I'm afraid that the airline itself was ignorant of the high-level-of-tension in the Iranian military at that hour. For this we need a fix

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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:15
  #424 (permalink)  
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On another forum, someone claimed to have seen photos of the cockpit area, with evident shrapnel damage.

I asked a question about this, was this new or an interpretation of previously seen photos, and someone else replied.

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/iran-foreign-minister-a-sad-day-our-profound-regrets-apologies-and-condolences.html?cn-reloaded=1

https://www.kyivpost.com/wp-content/...52092416_o.jpg

(same photo as posted here a few minutes ago, while I was getting this)

Last edited by aox; 11th Jan 2020 at 14:29.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:25
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Less Hair said "Looks like they immediately fired at it when picking it up. I read somewhere Tor can be set to auto fire mode. As soon as it's radar picks up anything the missiles go off. No button pressing needed, squawk doesn't matter"

Yes, that is what I have read. Although the that should only happen if an unfriendly (or no return) was detected by the IFF system.

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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:27
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Originally Posted by Hot 'n' High
Back to topic, whatever the cause of the tragic launch(es), Iran have come clean very quickly, particularly given the “fog of war” and the confusion that must have immediately followed this sad event - and commendably so. More than can be said of the Russians over MH17. I think the Iranian Government are dealing with an awful accident. MH17, while possibly through miss-identification as well, was the victim of a much more involved, shadowy plot. So, credit where credit is due – hard as it will be for all those who have lost loved ones/friends, at least it looks like some degree of closure is swiftly becoming available.

RIP to all ….. and may mankind learn … again!
.
its laughable to think the highest levels of the Iranian government weren’t aware of the shoot down within hours of the tragedy. It just took 3 days to calculate if there was any realistic way of hiding the reality. That the truth has come out and an apology extended is a good thing for closure but let’s go easy on the praise of any nation after they kill hundreds of defenseless civilians.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 15:12
  #427 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by retired guy
I wish that even after now admitting that it was a missile strike, they would not still try and introduce an element of justification . . .
That's pretty much what responsible parties and their national media tend to do.

In the wake of the shootdown of Iran Air 655, a political scientist at George Washington University published a study* comparing US media coverage of the Soviet shootdown of KAL 007 with the Vincennes' downing of the Iranian flight. He found that in the case of KAL, "the angle taken by the US media emphasized the moral bankruptcy and guilt of the perpetrating nation. With Iran Air 655, the frame de-emphasised guilt and focused on the complex problems of operating military high technology." It's a pretty interesting piece of research.

* Robert M Entman, ‘Framing US coverage of international news: Contrasts in narratives of the KAL and Iran Air incidents’ in Journal of Communication, vol 41, no 4, Washington DC, December 1991.

Newsweek covers related to the two incidents:



This past summer, Le Monde Diplomatique ran an article that seems on-point in relation to this discussion and citing the above-referenced study*: US and Iran, Short Memories


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Old 11th Jan 2020, 15:16
  #428 (permalink)  
 
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From the Kyiv Post link above:

A statement by the Iranian Armed Forces on Jan. 11 said the plane was mistakenly shot after it changed course and started flying towards a military base. The statement blamed hostile U.S. military actions for a state of heightened alert, but also acknowledged the need for “fundamental reforms” to prevent such an occurrence in the future. It also promised a full report and to hold accountable those responsible for the loss of life.

Here’s a rough translation of the statement:

“The noble and revolutionary Iranian Islamic nation,

In the wake of the heartbreaking crash of a Boeing passenger plane, a Ukrainian airline that crashed in the early hours of Wednesday morning (Jan. 8), in the wake of a missile attack on the U.S. base of criminals and the possible impact of military action on the incident, the Armed Forces immediately set up an inspection team composed of technical and operational experts, independent of the State Aviation Authority, to investigate this possibility, and the results of the round-the-clock review are made available to the Honorable Iranian People:

1. Following the threats of President (Donald J. Trump) and the criminal America’s military commanders targeting a large number of targets in the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in the event of a counter-operation and in view of the unprecedented increase in air traffic in the region, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces were prepared to respond to possible threats at the highest level.

2. In the hours after the missile strikes, US terrorist forces’ warplanes around the country increased, and some reports of airstrikes targeting strategic centers in the country were reported to numerous defense units and targets on some radar plates. Caused greater sensitivity in air defense complexes.

3. In such critical and critical conditions, Flight PS752 of the Ukrainian airlines departs from Imam Khomeini Airport and, while in rotation, is completely approaching a sensitive military center of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps and at altitude and in form of a hostile flight. In these circumstances, the plane was accidentally hit by human error and, unfortunately, which unfortunately results in the martyrdom of dear compatriots and the death of a number of foreign nationals.

4. The Armed Forces staff, while expressing condolences and sympathy to the grieving families of other countries and the apologies for the human error, giving full assurance that the pursuit of fundamental reforms in the operational processes at the Armed Forces level can be repeated. Make such errors impossible and immediately report the culprit to the Armed Forces Judicial Organization in order to deal with any legal errors.

5. It was also announced that the relevant authorities in the Revolutionary Guards should, as soon as possible, present detailed explanations to the people of Iran.”
Originally Posted by Iron Duck
Apologies if these three related questions have already been answered elsewhere.

1 The Iranians claim the flight was overflying a sensitive military area. Is it marked on the charts? I can hardly imagine the SID would have taken it there. Does the ADS-B data show the flight deviating from the SID?
Here's the SID posted earlier in the thread by SA Brit. It looks to me like they were probably flying the PAROT 2H which does swing by the military areas mapped on other posts here.



And as FR24 posted in their blog (which was later picked up by the New York Times), other flights before the shootdown had similar departure paths.







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Old 11th Jan 2020, 15:29
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The ADS-B transmissions likely stopped because damage from the missile's warhead disconnected the transponder from the GPS antenna that it uses (from earlier in this thread). If that was indeed the case, VHF communications would likely have been affected as well, which explains why there was no mayday or any other call from the crew. That picture of the cockpit and front section of the aircraft suggests that the missile did NOT detonate on the port side, although it's not really possible from the picture to say definitively that it exploded on the starboard side. That said, it would be consistent with the scenario of losing #2 engine with a resulting turn to the right. If the crew hadn't been incapacitated (or killed outright like MH17), they would also probably have continued the right turn in an attempt to return to the airport.

Given that the plane was flying at 275 knots and the missile was likely fired at it head on, it would make sense that the detonation occurred somewhere just aft of the cockpit, severing the connections to communications antennas and probably destroying #2 engine. There was likely a hydraulic system problem as well, and possibly a wing fuel tank puncture and fire.

I haven't posted enough to put a pic in here (or an URL), but you can see the 737-800 antenna locations at w w w.b737.org.uk/images/antennalocations_ng.gif

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Old 11th Jan 2020, 15:37
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Originally Posted by AnglianAV8R
Hold on cowboy ! It just might be the case that the investigators need to confirm that the downing of the aircraft by a missile is the ONLY issue in the downing of the aircraft. Bear in mind that there have been some very sensible questions raised about possible issues before the hit. Until these questions are clarified NOTHING "is just debris".
Not sure why you think someone whose location is listed as Hyderabad, India is a cowboy, ... but I think you are right in advocating for a thorough investigation which may shed light on issues related to the accident.
Which issues do you feel most need answering?
Could you list your top 5 things related to what may be found in the wreckage - now that the ultimate factor, accidental missile launch, is confirmed - that you feel may be contributing factors? While the CVR and FDR may hold some revelations in systems performance, or lack thereof, facts which are to date unknown, those boxes have been declared as found. (And I'll guess useful/readable)

I'll offer a few things that I think may be of interest to those operating in this region that are probably outside the scope of a material investigation angle:
  1. Any change in insurability?
  2. Alerts, risk assessments and decisions in airspace over areas where tensions ratchet up.
  3. Given that there was traffic (departures) before this event, what kind of warning or notification would have led to the crew doing something different? (I take it as a given that most airline companies have little to no way to change how a local military does things)
Mr Rooney's link from a few posts up: http://www.b737.org.uk/images/antennalocations_ng.gif
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 16:02
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@Lonewolf_50 "Cowboy" was banter mode engaged As for what they might want to find..My thoughts on this are that the investigators would seek to clarify that the aircraft and systems were functioning correctly prior/up to the moment they took the hit. In other words, a process of deduction. The aim being to ensure nothing important is overlooked. My investigation experience is not aviation related, but processes have similarities in terms of the basic approach. The bottom line, from my experience, is that nothing "is just debris" until all possible causes/issues have been ruled either in or out.

Last edited by AnglianAV8R; 11th Jan 2020 at 16:21.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 16:05
  #432 (permalink)  
 
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There's a 'something' 307º/13.5 nm from the rw end ... could that be the 'sensitive site'? Can't post Google Earth image, for some reason. Fairly close to the SID, though.

35º33'40.80"N 50º53'54.42"E


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Old 11th Jan 2020, 16:13
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Originally Posted by MPN11
There's a 'something' 307º/13.5 nm from the rw end ... could that be the 'sensitive site'? Can't post Google Earth image, for some reason. Fairly close to the SID, though.

35º33'40.80"N 50º53'54.42"E
I think that is indeed the site of the 'missile research facility'.

Here's Babak Taghvaee's map of the points of interest from a couple of days ago. He's nailed the specifics of this crash from the gitgo from what I can see.

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Old 11th Jan 2020, 16:14
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Originally Posted by canyonblue737
its laughable to think the highest levels of the Iranian government weren’t aware of the shoot down within hours of the tragedy. It just took 3 days to calculate if there was any realistic way of hiding the reality. That the truth has come out and an apology extended is a good thing for closure but let’s go easy on the praise of any nation after they kill hundreds of defenseless civilians.
I quite agree with you CB737 that, ultimately, it should not have happened and the apology could have been quicker. I was simply making the observation that certain other nations who, one might hope to be more “up front” in such cases are consistently as bad/worse – Moscow & Putin for example – where denial is just routine even in the light of significant/overwhelming evidence such as MH17 or Salisbury. And the Russians seem to be a lot more pre-meditated!

Given how such ME governments operate (and the fear of possible and extreme punishment that may await those who were at the LCP and in the chain of command leading away from that LCP will probably have hampered the flow of information), the “fog of war” so created no doubt added to delay in “owning up” to what I suspect was a genuine mistake. The Iranian government was probably caught completely off guard themselves. Knowing something has happened is one thing; getting heads round it is something else. But they “owned up"; the reasons for "owning up" may be cynical or otherwise – who knows what conversations were had in the upper echelons. However, to those affected, it may mean some closure at least within quite a short timescale, certainly compared to MH17.

But, it seems, one also has to ask yet more questions regarding flights generally within/over nations involved in such conflicts – particularly if there has been recent, rather obvious, provocation. That major lesson was brought out in Section 9.4 of the MH17 shoot-down Report by the Dutch; that of requiring adequate risk assessment. It's trying to define what "adequate" is which is the real problem - and I guess we'll never have it 100%. Perhaps some weighting of variables such as "robustness of chain of command" may have to be reviewed in the light of this sad event. Yet again, the fact you may be a bystander in any conflict is absolutely no guarantee of safety in a world of confusion and human fallibility! Time to dust that risk assessment criteria down again in many Airline Boardrooms?
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 16:37
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Whoa.....public protests by Iranians in Iran calling for the Regime's Leaders to step down.....now who would have guessed.

They are asking why the Iranian Government did not shut down Iranian Airspace due to the situation ongoing.

It would appear lots of people are wanting some answers from the Ayatollahs.

http://news.trust.org/item/20200111165001-pawh6

Last edited by SASless; 11th Jan 2020 at 17:06.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 16:48
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Compensation

Inevitably there will be a compensation payout which will not compensate adequately for the loss of loved ones.
Perhaps a more fitting response by the leaders of Iran would also include decision to cease its destabilising role in the Middle East. To know that a loved one’s death helped bring about a change in the outlook there might be a lasting legacy. One can only hope their deaths are not measured just in dollars and cents
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 16:50
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Originally Posted by Airbubba
I think that is indeed the site of the 'missile research facility'.

Here's Babak Taghvaee's map of the points of interest from a couple of days ago. He's nailed the specifics of this crash from the gitgo from what I can see.
Ah, I was too slow! Thanks anyway.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 17:19
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It was following an established SID (Parot 3G). Other earlier departing aircraft had followed very similar tracks.
So the question is; why didn't the missile system's IFF correctly interpret the ADB-S squawk as civilian as opposed to a potential hostile?
Sorry if a bl**dy silly question.

Last edited by Auxtank; 11th Jan 2020 at 17:40.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 17:41
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Trying a swing at what Lonewolf_50 asked about objectives in examining wreckage:
Not taking issue with premise that missile launch was accidental (not questioning the premise here, that is). Also not going into particular elements of the many - and sometimes varied - subject areas AIB reports usually reach.
Instead this incident appears as one which justifies, as well as demands, a complete investigatory work-up and report, even though some key questions won't be addressed (as earlier posts observed). If there is going to be a stronger push for realistic and still meaningful methods to address conflict zones much more effectively, having as full an Annex 13 process and resulting report very likely will be critically important. Certain ICAO Member States could, quite predictably, raise objections (fake or not) about stronger CZ initiatives. With a good, strong and complete Annex 13 process and report in one's briefcase, these cycical objectors could be told to pound sand -- though in the nicey-nice politesse of diplomats' lexicons, of course!

Last edited by WillowRun 6-3; 11th Jan 2020 at 18:18.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 18:01
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I guess there is little to no value for civil aviation to continue this investigation, everyone just better save efforts and money for the next occasion. To save multinational investigation a year and a few million bucks I can draft the safety recommendations here:
1) commission recommends to avoid flight operations within active war risk areas in order to reduce probability of being shot down by air defence
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