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Lionair plane down in Bali.

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Lionair plane down in Bali.

Old 16th Apr 2013, 00:37
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As I recall they had an American FE that said they were too low but the captain ignored because of cultural differences not allowing a subordinate to tell the captain what to do.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 01:07
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I had to take control from my chief pilot once in a 4 engine corporate jet once, Jetstar, because in a driving rainstorm with max crosswind he was landing half way down a 6500 ft runway so went around. I knew I was fired but to my surprise he thanked me. Sometimes you have to just survive and just find another job. Much better than being dead.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 01:12
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there are pilots who are amazingly attuned, so totally ONE with the plane that they are flying at a whole different level than those pilots who are sort of just along for the ride.

the increased automation of planes is reducing this "ONE NESS" with the plane.

good for you bubbers with that jetstar thing...which airport?
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 02:28
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Lafayette, LA I think. I guessed at the runway length, just knew it was longer than SNA. The chief wouldn't let me put on the wipers because they were too noisy for the customers. I said I can't see because the wipers were off at MDA he said turn them on and we were approaching the threshold at 400 feet so said go around and pushed the throttles to max when he was going to landing flaps and idle power then I went to go around and changed flaps. I have never had anybody do that to me but am happy I did it that night.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 02:50
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SSR, we must have some young pilots out there that can do it too. Look at the talented 21 year old fighter and bomber pilots we had in WWII. I know you have to kick the kid out of the house now at 24 but in our era we were on our own at 18. What is wrong with the new generation that can't grow up?
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 03:17
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Hasn't anyone noticed that the real reason for this mishap hasn't been brought up? The PIC was texting his wife, on final approach!!

It's interesting to note that one European pax reported in some detail that the aircraft went through "the heaviest rainstorm he had ever encountered in an aircraft, 2 to 3 minutes of solid rain", just prior to the ditching.

Anyone who has ever had any extensive experience with weather, knows full well - particularly in the tropics - that it is entirely possible to have clear sky and full sun, and little wind where you're located - yet only 2 or 3 miles away, you can have a violent thunderstorm raging, with strong wind gusts and heavy rain.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 03:26
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@Onetrack

That would explain why the line itself issued a statement that the weather was good and not a factor in the accident.

I agree that tropical weather is a localised phenomenon BUT I have lived in Bali for 20 years and have a pretty good grasp of local weather conditions. On the day of the accident there was NO TS activity. That, of course, does not preclude localised rain showers on approach.

The boxes were an easy recovery job so the answers should be available shortly.

PS. I heard from my equally unreliable sources the PIC was actually sexting his girlfriend ;-)

Last edited by philipat; 16th Apr 2013 at 03:30.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 03:40
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@philipat - I have no doubt you're firm in your conviction that there was no TS activity of consequence in the aircrafts flight path. I'm not so sure about the truth of the Lionair statement.

As we all know, the flight recording instruments will soon reveal all. I'm hazarding a WAG, that as it's fairly accurately recorded, that around 90% of aircraft crashes are pilot error - and that this was a totally brand-new aircraft - I'll wager the cockpit communications will be very revealing.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 03:48
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It can't be that difficult to find out if the weather was bad or not. There were a lot of surfers nearby who saw the accident, and headed straight to the crash site after the flight ditched.
And if there is a wall of water between me and the airport, I don't think I would see very much of it. Where they were flying blind below minima on a non precision approach?
Whatever happened to predictive and reactive windshear warnings? The bells should have gone off one way or another?
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 04:12
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There are many conflicting reports of just exactly what the weather and visibility was like, at the time, or just before the crash. The chief of the Ngurah Rai Airport's weather station is on record as stating that visibility was 6 miles and there was "no rain".
He might have been stating that he could see no rain. Other reports state that there were some TS clouds at 1700 feet, and a lot of low cloud beyond the 6 miles visibility range.

One has to ask, at a tourist location, in mid-afternoon, with large numbers of people about in public, why no-one actually sighted the jet going down - or even hitting the water?

The surfer who was in the water at the time of the crash, and who paddled out to rescue pax - has stated he never saw the aircraft go down - but he heard a huge splash, and he encountered a sudden large wave - which was the wave generated by the ditching.

This surely has to indicate that the aircraft ditched in low cloud - thus the lack of sightings of the aircraft ditching, by people on the ground?

Leaving out the obvious journalistic BS and the pax's errors in their statements, we have left, only the European pax's statement about heavy rain, and the PIC's statement that he intended to do a GA, but lost altitude so rapidly he was unable to carry out his intended action.

Exclusive: Lion Air crash pilot felt jet "dragged" from sky

'Extraordinary phenomenon hit Lion Air jet' | News.com.au

Last edited by onetrack; 16th Apr 2013 at 04:14.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 04:28
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From http://www.pilotjobsnetwork.com/jobs/Lion_Air

Lion's Air First Officer's rostering system ( verified by independent sources):

6 days on, 24 consecutive hours off duty per week. day by day schedule, permanent Standby. mandatory to fly more than 90 hrs per month otherwise you will be penalize. new system casino schedulle, pilots must pay to get a requested route and the requested crew. normally for locals.

There's MORE: Regarding pay:


FO top After line training: 2000 usd+8.5 use per hourr hour (100-120) hrs per month). Figures are before tax 11/Nov/11

Those hours ARE ABOVE INDONESIAN CASR (110 hrs).

From internal sources:

Agents take a significant cut for the foreigners. Part of the cut goes to Lion Air management for "kickback commission". Some are "shared" with pertinent regulatory authorities to "accept an arrangement"

Some flight hours are deliberately undocumented for cover ups. Additional pay provided at higher rates above legal flight hour limits. An audit was reported to have noted a pilot flew 160 hours in 1 month.

Management thinks those who do this are the "loyal" ones and get "preferential" treatment. When they get into an accident and found to hv violated, they r the " black sheep" if revealed.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 04:43
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Note the terms of employment

From Now Lion Air wants to make money out of jobless pilots from India [Archive] - PPRuNe Forums

"What is the penalty of early termination of contract?
Any termination at the initiative or caused by the behavior of the pilot will lead to a penalty of 100,000 USD"

Imagine a low time pilot who has invested tens of thousands of dollars in getting a CPL, unable to find a job, threatened for "termination" for "behavior", and asked to pay USD 100,000 as per a signed contract.

All they have to do is "pass the impression" that a "go-around" will b questioned and may be considered as "unacceptable behavior"

Obviously, this is nothing short of modern slavery!

Everything gets skewed with corruption and poor law enforcement.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 04:53
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@Onetrack

With respect, and just to be clear, I am NOT saying that there was not any rain on the approach, just that there was no TS activity in the vicinity. I very often land in Bali on the default 09 Runway through scattered showers on and off through the approach, sometimes quite heavy, followed by complete calm and very good visibility.

There was localised light rain (Heavy if you are flying right into it) and scattered low cloud all across South Bali at the time of the accident. But no TS activity. Even Australian surfers know that if there is TS activity around, it's best to get out. They learn this in school.

Although Indonesian Corporations often work in mysterious ways, from the point of view of potential liability, I would have thought that their Legal Department would NOT have allowed Lion to issue a statement to the effect that weather was not an issue unless they believed that this was demonstrably the case.

Anyway, as you rightly note, the answers should soon be available. Like you, I expect that the CVR will be very interesting.

Last edited by philipat; 16th Apr 2013 at 04:55.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 05:09
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Originally Posted by onetrack

This surely has to indicate that the aircraft ditched in low cloud - thus the lack of sightings of the aircraft ditching, by people on the
I've been flying in and out of DPS for the last three years and have a good appeciation of the weather conditions there at this time of year. Considering the METAR gives the temperature as 30 C and dewpoint 25 C, it's very unlikely that there's low cloud at the time. Reduced vis due to a torrential down pour is more likely the reason than being obscured by low cloud.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 05:51
  #395 (permalink)  
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mata abad

Accident: Lionair B738 at Denpasar on Apr 13th 2013, landed short of runway and came to stop in sea

Flight was scheduled straight back to Bandung,not an international destination
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 06:03
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'Twill be interesting to see if engine inlet or EGT calibration (relative to original engine water ingestion test) or DFDR/QAR data mining can establish an abnormal severity of cloud burst.
0 n 1
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 06:12
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eye witneses

I dont really like to speculate before the facts but as surfer close to the site reports he saw the plane with the splash sound, it makes me wonder why he didnt hear the sound of engines spooling up if a GA or stall recovery initiated, those things are very noisy over the open sea and if Full throttle was applied surfer would be aware of the plane earlier than the splash sound. He would state something like, i heard the plane and then it splashed into water etc..
Its just what came into my mind when i read his story..
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 06:49
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From an earlier post..

French businessman Jean Grandy, 49, one of four foreigners on the plane, said that the flight from the city of Bandung in West Java had appeared to be landing smoothly.

"The final approach was fine," he told AFP.

"Then suddenly, a cloud enveloped us. Torrents of water were pouring on us, it was an enormous downpour. It only lasted two, three minutes.

"It was almost as if it was night, even though the sun had been shining just before," said Grandy.
Two or three mins and dark? Sounds like a pretty large lump in the sky. Photos suggest visibility was otherwise quite good. Wonder why they didn't see it ahead of them?
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 07:55
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So it seems the go around was not executed as expected, due to:

Pilot ('s) error/CRM?
Technical problem with the aircraft?
Weather?

Or a combination..we can assume the CVR and FDR should give us the answer fairly soon.
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Old 16th Apr 2013, 08:16
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What does an accident look like on paper?
We have put forward a lot of ideas and suggestions about what may have happened at the pointy end, ie what the crew may or may not have done, doing that is an " old school" way of thinking about accidents IMO.
There may well be one, two or three errors regarding decision making, procedure, technical tasks etc from the pointy end, but I'd bet a months wages that there will be many more causal factors further up the chain.
How many decisions/policies of the Indonesian regulating body will have a hand in this?
How many decisions/policies of the Lion Air management team ( think recruitment, training, rostering SOP's) will have a hand in this?
If the aim is to reduce further accidents from occurring then these higher level causes seem to me, to be the most effective place to attack the problem. To attack the problem these links in the chain at least have to be acknowledged
as existing. As professional pilots we should be singing it from the roof tops rather than focussing solely on the last two or three links like Jo public naturally does.
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