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Lionair plane down in Bali.

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Lionair plane down in Bali.

Old 15th Apr 2013, 03:27
  #321 (permalink)  
 
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Will the investigation get to the bottom of this??

I have been reading this with interest and note a comment from Smiling Monkey

And how is this any different from all of the other accident/incidents discussed on PPRuNe in the past?

Leave the the investigation to the professional investigators; wait for the official report to be released, and only after that, can we expect to learn from what has happened.

In the mean time, we continue to speculate what happened.
Please have a look at the absolute mess Australia's casa and atsb have made with the Westwind ditching at Norfolk Island in 2009. The Senate inquiry is riveting reading.

A summary is at: http://www.pprune.org/australia-new-...ml#post7792224

and more information at: 2012 ? PelAir [Norfolk Island] | Assistance to the Aviation Industry
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 03:28
  #322 (permalink)  
 
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It doesn't matter what minimums were but why did they land in the water? Did they look at their radar? The DFW windshear crash was really emphasized in our training of how to avoid a repeat of that. Going into San Salvador one day I held an extra circuit in holding when minimums came back up to let things stabilize. Now I had a nice easy approach with a headwind instead of a quartering tailwind. I did all my hero stuff in the 20's and 30's, not in my 50's.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 04:19
  #323 (permalink)  
 
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And that's the stuff ( attitude/ wisdom/ practical examples) we need in our airlines. Good example Bubber.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 04:51
  #324 (permalink)  
 
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It doesn't matter what minimums were but why did they land in the water?
Possibly by the time they realised that they had lost visual reference and needed to GA the laws of physics and aerodynamics meant a water landing was inevitable.

I would guess that this was a different scenario to DFW as they weren't unstable for most of the approach. I would also put forward a suggestion that a windshear warning wasn't triggered as it would have been at DFW.

Most readers of this thread forum would not be in the slightest bit interested in the Australian regulator/investigator.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 05:49
  #325 (permalink)  
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. . . but the volume of water may have been enough to reduce the performance of the aircraft such that the GA commenced at a low level was not going to prevent the impact with the water.
Brings back a few butt-clenching memories. Last minute and very unexpected wall of water, and a very real feeling of ground speed being diminished in the deluge.

seven's post.
"Lift literally being washed off the wings." [Sic]
is also a good description of how it feels.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 07:25
  #326 (permalink)  
 
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Unhappy

Oh, for the Love of, uh, "the deity of your choice"...if the thing was working properly and wasn't out of gas, they screwed the pooch. "The rain destroyed the lift!" I'd laugh if it didn't make me want to cry. How do you reckon millions of flights land in the dreaded RAIN every day? The largesse of Jupiter? I've flown through storms I'd have drowned in without the windshield, and the wings never magically stopped flying. No doubt the Feds will come out with an exhortation to avoid all rain in the future. Lulz.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 08:21
  #327 (permalink)  
 
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All good stuff! Have I missed anything?
May have been flying too fast/flying too slow/had too much energy/had too little energy.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 08:53
  #328 (permalink)  
 
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Its the actual email sent from the Cheif pilot (Destyo Usodo) to all flight crew.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 08:58
  #329 (permalink)  
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Groundspeed Mini Function

Does the 738 have an similar function to the Airbus GS Mini? For those unfamiliar, the airbus system is designed to ensure the aircraft maintains a minimum groundspeed during gusty approaches. Consider the following. You have a target approach speed of 145kts and autothrust/autothrottle is engaged. You encounter a positive shear of 15 kts so your IAS now increases to 160kts and your groundspeed reduces to 130kts. With a conventional system, because you're now above your target approach speed the thrust will be REDUCED to achieve target. The shear then ceases and your IAS and GS reduce accordingly - however , you've already lost an additional 5-10kts due to trying to reduce to your original target approach speed so you're now slow, with reduced/idle thrust AND reducing energy. Unless the thrust is applied appropriately a sink could develop very quickly.

On the Bus, when the gust is encountered your target approach speed actually INCREASES (to maintain GS) which requires thrust to be maintained or increased. As the gust recedes, and target speed slowly reduces, thrust is adjusted SLOWLY back to what's required. This is a dynamic function and results in the target approach speed sliding up and down the speed scale during the approach - but it maintains the aircraft energy and keeps the engines spooled to avoid a low energy/low thrust scenario.

So, with a rapid sink into the sea, there is a possibility of positive shear (gust front with the heavy rain encounter) with an associated thrust response as described above leading to an unrecoverable situation.

Can any Boeing drivers confirm the systems or procedures (increased approach speed?) required in such conditions.

A4
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 09:18
  #330 (permalink)  
 
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No, the B737NG does not have the sort of function that you mentioned above. Though there is something similar, A/T in ARM mode. But Lion SOPs dictate the disconnection of A/T when the aircraft is being manually flown on landing.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 09:22
  #331 (permalink)  
 
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FAA orders inspection of Boeing 737 tail planes - not relevant

The AD referred to in earlier posts was preceded by an NPRM in September 2012, so clearly isn't a reaction to the Lion Air accident.

Although the AD applies to all 737NGs, Boeing have stated that stabilizer attachment pins delivered after August 2008 are not suspected of having incorrectly applied wear and corrosion protective surface coating.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 09:47
  #332 (permalink)  
 
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More prictures from salvage

Here are more pictures, also from inside. The tail has been taken/broken completely off now.

Må kappe opp Lion Air-flyet - VG Nett om Indonesia
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 10:10
  #333 (permalink)  
 
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The aircraft in Bali has the line number 4350.
The AD points to a rear spar attach pin installed on line number 1 to 3534.
And these aircrafts have to be inspected prior to the accumulation of 56,000 total flight cycles on the pin, or within 3,000 flight cycles after the effective date of the AD, whichever occurs later.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 11:20
  #334 (permalink)  
 
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Again, just FWIW, I live in Bali about 4 miles East of the 27 DPS threshold. On the day of the accident there were very light breezes from the SE and some localised rain showers but nothing heavy. There was NO TS activity. Given the prevailing winds, anything over to the West, would normally have come through Sanur earlier. And it did not. It would seem to me that the conditions for windshear were simply NOT present. Of course, we need to wait and see and I will, of course, stand to be corrected.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 11:21
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would appear the media are paying attention to the speculation within this thread....
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 11:29
  #336 (permalink)  
 
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would appear the media are paying attention to the speculation within this thread....
And no doubt will speculate about the speculation. 'Twere ever thus.

Plenty of meat for them in this trenchant analysis:

An early probe by the National Committee for Transportation Safety (KNKT) points to undershooting the runway as the cause of a Lion Air plane that landed in the sea on Saturday, an investigator said on Sunday.

“The possible cause is undershoot. We are still looking at why the plane undershot the runway,” Masruri, head of the KNKT’s air transport accidents research department, told reporters.



.

Last edited by justanotherflyer; 15th Apr 2013 at 11:33.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 11:43
  #337 (permalink)  
 
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given the met, my bet is a wet microburst that they could not have seen, nor would radar have spotted it, (unless pointed straight up), because it came down on top of them.
These things don't appear from nowhere. If it did smash the aeroplane into the water, it would have been plainly visible on the radar with moderate up-tilt as the approach was started, around the IAF.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 11:50
  #338 (permalink)  
 
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Tail wind max?

Could anyone suggest what the tail wind maximum allowance is for a B738 given the circumstances, and can they land on this runway from the opposite end to 09? Earlier and apparently credible local weather reports on this thread have suggested that the eastern end approach was as clean as a whistle with light winds. Forgive me for being a layman, but I'm curious as to what it actually takes to bring about a runway change or actually close an airport.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 11:57
  #339 (permalink)  
 
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If microburst is a possible contributory cause, one presumes the crew would be trained and practised in the Windshear Escape Maneuver?

I appreciate that a severe microburst may compromise the ability of the aircraft to climb with ramifications when at low level.
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Old 15th Apr 2013, 12:02
  #340 (permalink)  
 
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Hi, I'm a journalist. We always monitor this forum, its the best way to figure out what is happening. Just wondering if any of the professional pilots here would be interested in helping with a story about Lion?

Totally off record and confidential. PM if you can help.
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