Lionair plane down in Bali.
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: In my seat
Posts: 822
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
That is absolutely not microburst weather. just a small tropical shower, totally normal anywhere in the Tropics. yea it reduces visibility, makes runways very wet and sometimes very slippery, but this is not severe windshear, aircraft dropping of the air while having full thrust kind of weather.
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Bali, Indonesia
Posts: 264
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
@despeque
Absolutely agree as I keep trying to say. These conditions are very common for landings at DPS and this is the first time an aircraft has landed short. There was NO TS activity in the vicinity. NOT microburst/Windshear conditions at all. TOGA weather yes, if at MDA but NOT, as you put it "Dropping out of the sky at TOGA thrust weather" I think PJ2 might be onto something.
I'm not quite sure but it appears on some of the pictures that the slats are in landing configuration (I am not aware of any pictures that show the flaps configuration) and, according to earlier reports and pictures, the gear was torn off on the reef. How can that be ?
I'm not quite sure but it appears on some of the pictures that the slats are in landing configuration (I am not aware of any pictures that show the flaps configuration) and, according to earlier reports and pictures, the gear was torn off on the reef. How can that be ?
Last edited by philipat; 17th Apr 2013 at 12:14.
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Wilts
Posts: 90
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A4:
Not true. You can level off at MDA and run in towards the MAP, even if still IMC. You only have to make a decision at the MAP.
At MDA you're either visual or you go-around.
Not true. You can level off at MDA and run in towards the MAP, even if still IMC. You only have to make a decision at the MAP.
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Australia
Posts: 622
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Yes it is typical weather, but perhaps the crew got caught out by it at the minima or just after and they elected to go-around. However if the Autothrottle had been disengaged earlier in the approach, they hit TOGA for the go-around but failed to push the thrust levers up but followed the flight direct (go-around mode) the aircraft would have pitched up, speed would decrease and the aircraft would continue descending until it hit the water. So the WEATHER would be a contributing factor.
Last edited by BPA; 17th Apr 2013 at 12:16.
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Inverness-shire
Posts: 577
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Hi Guys
well I just survived one leg Merauke - Jayapura as SLF on Lionair then Jayapura - Makassar - Jakarta on Merpati which according to some posters seems to make me about as lucky as a Lancaster crew doing 3 trips to Berlin & back. However from where I was sitting the cabin staff all appeared entirely professional and the landings were no more "arrivals" than most of the other heavy jet flights I've ever had.
It might be worth a mention that many of the airport runways in Indonesia are perched on the edge of islands, with either high ground to one side or one end, and often with cloud/rain on the high ground and at times seriously heavy rain storms. It can't be easy for the guys up front sometimes.
Plus there are about 240 million Indonesians spread over a huge area and they travel a lot. Indonesia may possibly compare with a fair bit of the whole of Europe in terms of daily aircraft movements, but in more difficult operating circumstances.
So In my extremely humble and worthless opinion I think some of the comments on this thread may have been a teensy tad OTT.
I pass on the P2F issue. I've always had to pay for my flying
well I just survived one leg Merauke - Jayapura as SLF on Lionair then Jayapura - Makassar - Jakarta on Merpati which according to some posters seems to make me about as lucky as a Lancaster crew doing 3 trips to Berlin & back. However from where I was sitting the cabin staff all appeared entirely professional and the landings were no more "arrivals" than most of the other heavy jet flights I've ever had.
It might be worth a mention that many of the airport runways in Indonesia are perched on the edge of islands, with either high ground to one side or one end, and often with cloud/rain on the high ground and at times seriously heavy rain storms. It can't be easy for the guys up front sometimes.
Plus there are about 240 million Indonesians spread over a huge area and they travel a lot. Indonesia may possibly compare with a fair bit of the whole of Europe in terms of daily aircraft movements, but in more difficult operating circumstances.
So In my extremely humble and worthless opinion I think some of the comments on this thread may have been a teensy tad OTT.
I pass on the P2F issue. I've always had to pay for my flying
Originally Posted by A4
Er, please tell me you're not serious. How/where would you "set" FPA approaching MDA?
Last edited by Capn Bloggs; 17th Apr 2013 at 12:46.
My logbook reveals that I've landed at WADD 220 times, with 65% of the time on 09 which is the prevailing runway for most of the year, so I guess I'm qualified to say the cell and associated downpour that you see in that photo is definitely not inline with the final approach course for 09. The inbound course (091) if offset 5 degrees to the left of the runway centerline, and would be well out of view of the photo.
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Montreal
Age: 91
Posts: 156
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Bali crash
May I suggest we wait for the FDR results before pontificating on the reason for this undershoot.
It was suggested that there is no effect from a "normal" rain shower, however, "normal" depends on the IAS and can be affected by tailwind due to vortex and/or rain on wings that are close to stall speed as when a pilot is trying to make a short field landing i.e. "dragging it in".
Therefore, let's wait for the facts before going into 20/20 vision speculations !
As a long term soaring pilot I am very aware of water on the wings and the negative affect it has on L/D and this I respect in the highest degree when flying near rain and CB's.
It was suggested that there is no effect from a "normal" rain shower, however, "normal" depends on the IAS and can be affected by tailwind due to vortex and/or rain on wings that are close to stall speed as when a pilot is trying to make a short field landing i.e. "dragging it in".
Therefore, let's wait for the facts before going into 20/20 vision speculations !
As a long term soaring pilot I am very aware of water on the wings and the negative affect it has on L/D and this I respect in the highest degree when flying near rain and CB's.
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Bali, Indonesia
Posts: 264
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
@Smiling Monkey
And I am also NOT convinced that is a picture taken on the day of the accident. Is there any proof of that? Granted, my position is some distance away and granted that these cells are localised. But that sure as hell doesn't seem to portray what I saw on the day. Even if it was, It's not microburst/windshear conditions. And as you correctly say, it is way of the approach path. Winds were light SE so would likely have interfered with approach LATER and FURTHER OUT.
Last edited by philipat; 17th Apr 2013 at 13:08.
Ut Sementem Feeceris
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 3,367
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Descent in VNAV. At DDA+300ft: set charted FPA
Without wishing to start an A v B debate it does seem a bit of a faff (English for nuisance). Selecting an FPA executing, confirming on FMA right at about the time you want to be looking out... FD's off then ON to ARM pop-up? TOGA buttons.....it all seems a bit high workload at a critical time. Does the AP have to be disconnected to execute the GA?
A4
WHO will be examining the FDR and CVR and is there any chance of shenanigans if they don't like what comes up?
detikNews : situs warta era digital
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: England
Posts: 969
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Although the details of this accident are far from clear, there are aspects which we can consider and learn from.
See the incident report below. There are many good safety lessons re wind-shear, and being written from the crew’s point of view it provides a valuable perspective of why we need ‘flying’ to go just right.
“If the microburst encounter happened at any lower altitude or if there was any lesser crew response, then the resulting aircraft flight path could have led to a major accident.”
“Follow recommended procedures to give the optimum performance. Practice an encounter with the FAA level 4 windshear in the simulator.”
“Severe wind shear or micro downburst conditions can occur near any cumulus clouds; they are not limited to Cb clouds.”
“The most significant yet unusual warning of the encounter was the crew's awareness of the exceptional noise of very intense rain.”
Note that the conditions did not involve a Cb, just a big Cu and that the met report was 'light rain falling at the airfield”; the WXR did not detect anything significant. The aircraft did not have windshear warning system, but a reactive system may not have bettered the Captains awareness, nor might a predictive system identify a rapidly developing hazard.
Also note what can be deduced from FDR analysis.
Windshear Incident
“The probability of encountering a hazardous situation does not recognise age, experience, or length of service - if it can happen, it will happen; probably to you!”
“If you have been unfortunate to have a severe safety event you are not exempt from another!
Having had one event, it can lead to a consequential event.”
See the incident report below. There are many good safety lessons re wind-shear, and being written from the crew’s point of view it provides a valuable perspective of why we need ‘flying’ to go just right.
“If the microburst encounter happened at any lower altitude or if there was any lesser crew response, then the resulting aircraft flight path could have led to a major accident.”
“Follow recommended procedures to give the optimum performance. Practice an encounter with the FAA level 4 windshear in the simulator.”
“Severe wind shear or micro downburst conditions can occur near any cumulus clouds; they are not limited to Cb clouds.”
“The most significant yet unusual warning of the encounter was the crew's awareness of the exceptional noise of very intense rain.”
Note that the conditions did not involve a Cb, just a big Cu and that the met report was 'light rain falling at the airfield”; the WXR did not detect anything significant. The aircraft did not have windshear warning system, but a reactive system may not have bettered the Captains awareness, nor might a predictive system identify a rapidly developing hazard.
Also note what can be deduced from FDR analysis.
Windshear Incident
“The probability of encountering a hazardous situation does not recognise age, experience, or length of service - if it can happen, it will happen; probably to you!”
“If you have been unfortunate to have a severe safety event you are not exempt from another!
Having had one event, it can lead to a consequential event.”
Last edited by PEI_3721; 17th Apr 2013 at 13:42. Reason: typo
Is this the standard method on the 738?
The most significant yet unusual warning of the encounter was the crew's awareness of the exceptional noise of very intense rain.
The coded E/D on this approach is at MA09, not at 50' over RW09...surprise .
If MDA 470 is set in the MCP (new RC A/P will accept this)
Last edited by Capn Bloggs; 17th Apr 2013 at 14:05.
Per Ardua ad Astraeus
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: UK
Posts: 18,579
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
PEI - the 737-6-900 have both predictive and reactive windshear warning systems.
OK - your penultimate para is a little concerning given the prevalence of 'magenta-line kids'.
OK - your penultimate para is a little concerning given the prevalence of 'magenta-line kids'.
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Seattle
Posts: 167
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"Who will be examining the FDR and CVR and is there any chance of shenanigans?"
