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Lionair plane down in Bali.

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Lionair plane down in Bali.

Old 14th Apr 2013, 14:41
  #281 (permalink)  
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Yep. Why spoil good stories with flight data and audio recordings?

(...spoilers and reversers in the ditching....??, ...someone really said that?)
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 14:58
  #282 (permalink)  
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#7 and possibly #205. Several 'opinions'/'questions' about gear.
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 15:01
  #283 (permalink)  
 
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I don't post very often on PPRuNe because its too much of a free-for-all sometimes, but I feel I have to add to the voices saying "Hold on, lets quit making judgements until all the facts are in the open!"

1. I think it is grossly unfair to heap blame on the crew when the evidence at this stage at least suggests whatever action they took saved everybody's lives. My personal view until we hear anything to the contrary is that if the crew were as incompetent as some people suggest they would be more likely to make a complete Horlicks of it, and most of the witnesses to the event would now be in body-bags. Talking of witnesses, here we have a WSJ article, written by a non-aviation journalist talking to a non-aviation witness, but it at least seems to independently corroborate the idea that the crew repositioned the flight path of the aircraft for a ditch, perhaps realising they were not going to make the runway:

Witness Tells of Watching Lion Air Jet Crash - Wall Street Journal - WSJ.com

2. Heaping blame on the country, and all the horrible racist comments some people have come out with. I think its fair to say Indonesia is an emerging country compared with Europe/US/CIS and maybe they have got some way to go yet... but I deal with the Indonesian authorities on a fairly regular basis and I don't think is fair to tar the whole industry there with the brush of corruption. It is fair to say there is a desire to get it right. For example, it is not easy to get a permit to take a large jet aircraft into the country and this is usually achieved with accurate legal documentation, not back-handers.

3. I've read some pretty unpleasant things about the airline, so I don't feel very obliged to jump to their defence, but whatever their internal cultural misgivings, this aircraft was BRAND NEW, there was hardly even time for their engineers to make a mess of it, on a statistical balance of probabilities, these guys have forty something of these planes to work on and ought to be pretty competent, but in the case of this aircraft they are unlikely to have even had a chance to look at it and say "ooh, nice paint".

4. Without wanting to add further speculation into the mix, but purely to add balance and emphasise that we really don't know enough yet... looking at the bigger picture it is worth considering that this BRAND NEW aircraft was recently assembled and delivered by a company who despite their excellent reputation in the field are currently dealing with having the entire fleet of their latest product grounded due to manufacturing and design defects.

I do hope the last point is not a factor as it could have far reaching consequences, but I just wanted to clarify that all we know is there was an incident, but other than that we have no clue whatsoever what the causes were. Nobody on this forum is going to pull the answers out of a bag, but it doesn't look like it is going to be a complicated problem for whoever investigates it to solve and report, so lets sit back and let them do their work. If there's any corruption involved in their findings I'm sure we'll smell it!



....as for the Virgin plane going around? If I was number 2 to a plane suddenly failing to make the runway in front of me I'd instinctively go around, wouldn't you?
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 15:07
  #284 (permalink)  
 
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All good stuff! Have I missed anything? We should be able to get something out of that lot.
And how is this any different from all of the other accident/incidents discussed on PPRuNe in the past? Leave the the investigation to the professional investigators; wait for the official report to be released, and only after that, can we expect to learn from what has happened. In the mean time, we continue to speculate what happened.
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 15:13
  #285 (permalink)  
 
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it seems most likely that they were short on power on final
of course they would be since they descended into the water.

What counts is why

too slow a spool up vs descent rate? ala Capt Asseline ?

dual engine powerloss on landing ala BA B777 ?

commanded power not sufficient to achieve the runway?

I haven't seen a hint of facts to support any of the above scenarios as yet.

Anybody seen a peek at the condition of the fans on both engins Asymetric power ? undamaged blades?
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 15:36
  #286 (permalink)  
 
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All the goods on WADD

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...G8GC-6kje_EPUg
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 15:38
  #287 (permalink)  
 
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Its all speculation .
Not sure about 737 but if missed approach is not at threshold then can a fully managed approach be done ? Should it be in a selected vertical mode ? If the A/C was low on app , had visibility problems due to unexpected rain shower it may have gone wrong very quickly . Engines not powered up due up drafts / shear maybe speed brake left out ? Got visual , to low , pull back , no power up or to much drag and splash .
How ever it happened its great no one died so have to be thankful for that .
Hope the authorities work out the underlying factors and use it to improve their industry .
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 16:09
  #288 (permalink)  
 
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Bali crash may highlight risks of Lion Air expansion,,

The dramatic crash of a Lion Air plane into the sea off Bali has raised fears Indonesia’s fastest-growing carrier may be putting passenger safety at risk with its huge expansion plans, analysts said on Sunday.

Experts also warned that Saturday’s crash, in which all 108 on board survived but the Boeing jet split in two, highlighted a “ticking time bomb” under the country’s aviation sector with a lack of experienced crew to meet fast-growing demand.

A little-known carrier launched 13 years ago with just one plane, Lion Air has struck two of the world’s largest aircraft orders in a staggering US$46 billion bet on Indonesia’s air transport boom.

France announced last month that the carrier had agreed to buy 234 medium-haul A320 jets worth US$23.8 billion from European aerospace giant Airbus.

It came after Lion Air astounded the industry with a US$22.4 billion agreement for 230 Boeing 737 airliners, inked in 2011 as a visiting US President Barack Obama looked on.

The company is betting big on the formidable expansion of air transport in Indonesia, which is experiencing passenger growth of around 20 per cent every year.

With 240 million people, Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous nation, and embraces more than 17,000 islands scattered across 33 provinces.

But Saturday’s crash has heightened fears the plans are overambitious for an airline that already has a poor reputation, suffered a string of accidents, and is banned from EU and American skies over safety fears.

The Boeing 737-800 missed the runway entirely as it came into land at the airport on the resort island of Bali, slamming into the water and splitting in two, causing dozens of injuries but no fatalities.

Officials have given no indication as yet what may have caused the plane, which was brand new and delivered to Lion Air just last month, to ditch. There were 101 passengers and seven crew on board.

On Saturday, investigators said they had located one of the plane’s black boxes and were questioning the pilot.

“I do question whether Lion Air’s exponential growth... will put safety at risk,” Daniel Tsang, an analyst at Hong Kong-based consultancy Aspire Aviation, said.

“When an airline is too focused on growth and puts an emphasis on cutting costs, safety could be compromised.”

Tom Ballantyne, chief correspondent of Orient Aviation magazine, said: “There are always dangers with rapid expansion.

“Airlines have to be very careful when they grow so quickly, and Lion Air has to make absolutely sure that their safety systems are... improved as quickly as the growth of the fleet.”

Lion Air suffered a string of accidents between 2004 and 2006.

The worst was in December 2004, when at least 26 people died after one of its passenger planes skidded off the runway after landing and crashed in heavy rain in the central Indonesian city of Solo.

Wawan Mulyawan, an aviation expert at the University of Indonesia who specialises in crew health issues, said that since the plane was new, a cause of the accident could have been that the pilot was exhausted.

Pilots being rundown and overworked could become more of an issue for the country’s aviation sector as a whole, he said, as airlines expand rapidly and there are not enough qualified crew.

“Yesterday’s crash was the tip of the iceberg,” said Mulyawan. “If the number of pilots cannot grow as fast as the number of planes and flights, we can expect worse cases in the future. It’s a ticking time bomb.”

Lion Air has had problems with pilots in the past. It has been randomly drug testing its crews since several pilots were arrested in recent years for possession and consumption of crystal meth.

No one from Lion Air could be reached on Sunday to comment on whether the crash would affect their expansion strategy.

While the accident may have cast a shadow over the expansion plans of Lion Air, Indonesia’s first private airline founded in 1999 by brothers Kusnan and Rusdi Kirana, analysts doubted it would hold it back in the long term.

It has huge ambitions to expand its network from the current 72 routes, most of which are in Indonesia, and is betting on support from a burgeoning middle class which is keen to abandon travel by bus, ferry and train.

With both its recent mega-purchases in place, Lion Air would boast more than 600 aircraft by 2025, making it among the top ten of the world’s biggest airlines in terms of fleet size.

“Lion Air will have little difficulty in attracting middle class passengers continuously,” said Aspire Aviation’s Tsang.


AFP... 14/04/2013

Last edited by jetjockey696; 14th Apr 2013 at 16:10.
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 17:02
  #289 (permalink)  
 
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Dear Colleagues,
As we heard a news that today one of our colleague got serious accident at Bali.
JT 904 / PK LKS / B 737-800 NG
Stretch : BDO-DPS
PIC : Capt. Mahlup Gozali (Local)
SIC : FO . Chirag Kalra (Indian)

Everyone onboard include active crew has been evacuate and no fatalities.
We highly appreciate with their good job and excellent professionalism.
Now we need all colleague to keep focus on your job and give service excellent to all passenger by giving a flight announcement with warm greetings. We need to keep all passenger feel safe to fly with Lion Air.
Last time kindly to remind you that always be aware of sudden windshear or any kind of weather phenomena that would result on speed drop and even worse aircraft sink especially on very short final position. Don't hesitate to put more additional thrust to disseminate this event and if abnormal thrust position reach it means the stabilized approach criteria has been breach and this is the alert for us to commence immediate GO AROUND. At this time REJECT LANDING Go Around procedure must be comply accordingly.
Finally my colleague I would like to say SAFETY IS COMES FROM OUR DICIPLINE. Always Keep alert and Have a safe flight.
God bless us.
Sincerely yours,
I will hold my personal judgements until a few more facts are known, however... Ehem, if that is really a letter from Lion's CP it seems to give credence to all the other remarkable stories emanating from this airline.

I'm incredulous anyone would want this airline on their CV- if it wasn't so sad it would be funny.
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 17:31
  #290 (permalink)  
 
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Well I think surat itu ada bohong.....bukan oleh CP

It looks made up...I deal with many many Indonesians and they all speak and write English far better than that....
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 17:43
  #291 (permalink)  
 
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Indonesian Track record

Check out this list:

PERFORMANCE REFERENCE HANDBOOK 737

Am I mistaken in thinking that Indonesia is overrepresented?

I particularly noticed Lions 14´Th and then 15´Th of February 2011 accidents. Same type plane, same airport and same accident two days in a row. Me thinks there is a problem here.......
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 18:20
  #292 (permalink)  
 
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Some quotes from this article
Investigators seek cause of new Boeing 737's crash into sea | Local & Regional | Seattle News, Weather, Sports, Breaking News | KOMO News

"The cabin crew had already announced that we would be landing shortly, and I was so excited when I saw the ocean getting closer, but suddenly ... it fell," he said.

The airline said it planned to suck the remaining fuel from the undamaged tanks in the plane's wings before towing it at high tide to avoid destroying the area's coral reefs.

1. a sudden fell
2. there was still fuel left
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 18:47
  #293 (permalink)  
 
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"I'm surprised. The airplane split in two upon impact," he said, estimating it was likely traveling close to 300 miles (483 kilometers) per hour.
I suspect he was assuming a pure water impact, and missed the fact that this aircraft landed in shallow water with a lot of obstructions (reefs and rocks) that would make for uneven forces on the fuselage, and thus a crack at a much lower speed.

Big difference between dropping an egg into water - and dropping an egg onto a knife-edge just below the water surface.
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 18:48
  #294 (permalink)  
 
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Comments from passengers and spotters are more often untrustworthy than usefull, although they do need to be taken into consideration
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 20:21
  #295 (permalink)  
 
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@BOAC

All good stuff! Have I missed anything? We should be able to get something out of that lot.
May or may not have called out a mayday.
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 21:11
  #296 (permalink)  
 
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slamming into the water and splitting in two
Oh, aye? I rather think that if it had slammed into the water, it would have split up into somewhat more than two.

Last edited by Sunnyjohn; 14th Apr 2013 at 21:12.
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 21:12
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NTSB assisting investigation

As is customary, the US NTSB, representing the state of manufacture, is sending a team to assist the Indonesian investigation.
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 21:18
  #298 (permalink)  
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Well spotted, fg! A crucial factor.We are nearly there.
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 21:24
  #299 (permalink)  
 
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surfers wx eyewitness nearby

There was thick cloud around and the wind was quite strong. Then I looked up and the plane had not landed.
Schapelle Corby's boyfriend Ben Panangian was at plane crash scene, helped rescue passengers | News.com.au
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Old 14th Apr 2013, 22:50
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Originally Posted by awqward
Well I think surat itu ada bohong.....bukan oleh CP

It looks made up...I deal with many many Indonesians and they all speak and write English far better than that....
Having received numerous such memos (although but not from this airline), I can say it does sound authentic and is typical of the knee jerk reaction to safety from operators here when an accident or incident happens.

Their English is not good, but understandable .. and bit like your standard of bahasa as well, if I may say so (If I may correct you, what you wrote should be "surat itu mungkin tipuan ... bukan dari CP"
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