Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
As I posted on the previous thread this piece of research from Januarys Economist magazine looks at how long peak-to-trough took in previous major economic crisis:
A 5 year fall would suggest we're approaching halfway down. I would guess its something of that order. So I'd leave job hunting for 3 years I think.
WWW
A 5 year fall would suggest we're approaching halfway down. I would guess its something of that order. So I'd leave job hunting for 3 years I think.
WWW
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It is a concern; unfortunately it will possibly be approximately 18/.5 months before I finish at the age of 34! Indeed such a worry, nevertheless too far down the road to stop and revaluate!
Last edited by Rugbyears; 22nd Mar 2009 at 20:31. Reason: Typo error using the Blackberry to post!
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It's a horrible feeling being too far down the training to turn back. I know because I'm there myself. But that's life, we all know things are **** and the newby jobs market is likely to remain so for some time to come. Rugbyears....I feel for you mate, I'm in the same boat going down the same money draining river without any sign of a paddle aswell!
Having kept up with this thread from its conception some time ago its clear that there are many different ways to try and predict the future but when all's said and done they're just predictions. All the like's of myself and Rugbyears can hope for is a quick turn around. Probably won't happen but then who could have predicted the Oil price trend over the last year or so!
The real question is.....if I could turn back would I?????Logic and common sense says YES YOU BLOODY FOOL! But sadly trying to apply common sense to spending 60k+ on any vocational training without any sort of promise of a job at the end is a hopeless excercise! I'm a modular student so I'm thinking about delaying the IR after I finish my CPL. Decision's decision's!!!
Having kept up with this thread from its conception some time ago its clear that there are many different ways to try and predict the future but when all's said and done they're just predictions. All the like's of myself and Rugbyears can hope for is a quick turn around. Probably won't happen but then who could have predicted the Oil price trend over the last year or so!
The real question is.....if I could turn back would I?????Logic and common sense says YES YOU BLOODY FOOL! But sadly trying to apply common sense to spending 60k+ on any vocational training without any sort of promise of a job at the end is a hopeless excercise! I'm a modular student so I'm thinking about delaying the IR after I finish my CPL. Decision's decision's!!!
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I concur sincerely with your sentiments – I obviously harbour the desire to stagnate the cog wheel of training, however, I maintain this ever-present concern of the 'AGE' factor. I accept it would be foolish to adopt a gung-ho approach to training, rather prolonging the process, although, I retain the notion that the longer I take to complete, the older I am!!! The mere notion of a 34 year old competing with presently unemployed pilots as well as those younger chaps when the aviation field demonstrates signs of a resurge is terrifying! 
I don't know who has made you so paranoid about your age but I'm the same age you are and regularly fly with first officers who are significantly older than I am. Ex-military types are usually very late 30's by the time they hit the airline recruiters desk. Its no impediment. Age discrimination is now illegal. Few airlines now expect to recruit and retain for an entire 40 year career. You'll most likely pay for your type rating one way or another anyway.
Your lapsed IR is more likely going to be the snag than your sub 40 age.
I have pumped out a strongly bearish message now for 18 months. Many take the view that I'm variously enjoying doing so, motivated by shadenfraude, showing off, am a pessimist by nature or glory in doom mongering to Wannabes from a position of immunity. None of which is true. Every Wannabe caught out by this crisis, every dream that is turning to nightmare, is a tragedy. My heart goes out to those for whom their wannabe ambitions prove to be a personal ruination. This industry is vicious and cruel at times and you can do nothing about it bar discounting the ill fortune of your timing.
The storm will pass and the only game in town is keeping afloat until that day.
WWW
Your lapsed IR is more likely going to be the snag than your sub 40 age.
I have pumped out a strongly bearish message now for 18 months. Many take the view that I'm variously enjoying doing so, motivated by shadenfraude, showing off, am a pessimist by nature or glory in doom mongering to Wannabes from a position of immunity. None of which is true. Every Wannabe caught out by this crisis, every dream that is turning to nightmare, is a tragedy. My heart goes out to those for whom their wannabe ambitions prove to be a personal ruination. This industry is vicious and cruel at times and you can do nothing about it bar discounting the ill fortune of your timing.
The storm will pass and the only game in town is keeping afloat until that day.
WWW
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This article has some interesting point and predictions in it.
Air travel: Ryanair reported to OFT as 'anti-consumer' as aviation industry gloom deepens | Business | The Guardian
Air travel: Ryanair reported to OFT as 'anti-consumer' as aviation industry gloom deepens | Business | The Guardian
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Another article (from a useless newspaper) to make you feel happy:
Heathrow's third runway: planning for aviation boom times is no way to deal with economic bust | Environment | guardian.co.uk
The most relevant portion being:
Anyway, the crux of my argument was pithily summed up by easyJet's Stelios Haji-Ioannou. He said: "We are not Aldi or Lidl. It's very difficult to stop eating in a recession but you can stop flying."
Indeed the Guardian reported yesterday that "the number of passengers passing through British airports has fallen for the first time since 1991."
A quick scan on Google shows that in the past six months at least 24 airlines have gone bust, and a total of at least 30 in the last year. Just this month, Heathrow's second biggest airline BMI posted a loss of Ł100m amid "extremely challenging" trading conditions and even the director of the air industry's own trade body IATA, Giovanni Bisignani, has said the "outlook is bleak" and describes a "chronic industry crisis."
Oh what a situation......
Heathrow's third runway: planning for aviation boom times is no way to deal with economic bust | Environment | guardian.co.uk
The most relevant portion being:
Anyway, the crux of my argument was pithily summed up by easyJet's Stelios Haji-Ioannou. He said: "We are not Aldi or Lidl. It's very difficult to stop eating in a recession but you can stop flying."
Indeed the Guardian reported yesterday that "the number of passengers passing through British airports has fallen for the first time since 1991."
A quick scan on Google shows that in the past six months at least 24 airlines have gone bust, and a total of at least 30 in the last year. Just this month, Heathrow's second biggest airline BMI posted a loss of Ł100m amid "extremely challenging" trading conditions and even the director of the air industry's own trade body IATA, Giovanni Bisignani, has said the "outlook is bleak" and describes a "chronic industry crisis."
Oh what a situation......
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2 whites 2 reds,
You should not have to even think about whether to delay or not! It should be intuative! Are you employed? If so you need to keep your job and head above water! I was 20 hours in to my IR when I pulled the plug! The thought of zero job opportunities whilst shelling out loads of cash was all to much and knocked my motivation and thus I knew in my heart I was not performing as well as I could have.
Were eyebrows raised? Yes of course they were but mainly from those not shelling out the cash and taking the same risk!
As for the future, well Ive got until May 2010 to decide! Im in a good job now, no way am I throwing that away for a lottery! For me my flying future maybe just a hobby/ pocket money earner if I get an instructor rating.
Ive stopped at a point that is recoverable quite easily, as WWW says an aweful lot are in real trouble.
Best of luck to all in what you decide
You should not have to even think about whether to delay or not! It should be intuative! Are you employed? If so you need to keep your job and head above water! I was 20 hours in to my IR when I pulled the plug! The thought of zero job opportunities whilst shelling out loads of cash was all to much and knocked my motivation and thus I knew in my heart I was not performing as well as I could have.
Were eyebrows raised? Yes of course they were but mainly from those not shelling out the cash and taking the same risk!
As for the future, well Ive got until May 2010 to decide! Im in a good job now, no way am I throwing that away for a lottery! For me my flying future maybe just a hobby/ pocket money earner if I get an instructor rating.
Ive stopped at a point that is recoverable quite easily, as WWW says an aweful lot are in real trouble.
Best of luck to all in what you decide
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WWW - Not all bad!!!
WWW - I have maintained complete cohesion with your statements, although our viewpoints slightly vary as far as the estimated timescale, I remain in complete support of the message you articulate.
What some may not realise, you are actively informing the wider audience what 'MAY' occur, not what will. Thus, empowering individuals to form an educated assessment of the situation whilst supported by appropriate facts in hand.
I accept you are referred to as Mr Doom and Gloom, rather amusingly may I protest, sadly truth is we are amidst a credit correction, it really is quite that simple! On more then one occasion, you have posted replies empathetic as well as attentive to my training needs, advising plausible avenues of training, you appreciate that there are those too far down the route of training and assist where you can – For this I remain sincerely thankful!!
What some may not realise, you are actively informing the wider audience what 'MAY' occur, not what will. Thus, empowering individuals to form an educated assessment of the situation whilst supported by appropriate facts in hand.
I accept you are referred to as Mr Doom and Gloom, rather amusingly may I protest, sadly truth is we are amidst a credit correction, it really is quite that simple! On more then one occasion, you have posted replies empathetic as well as attentive to my training needs, advising plausible avenues of training, you appreciate that there are those too far down the route of training and assist where you can – For this I remain sincerely thankful!!
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expedite08.....
My brain is telling me to stop and go back to work for a while but my heart tells me to soldier on. Coming from a financial background (not a city broker or banker I hasten to add!) the brain wins quite convincingly so I will be going back to work. I'm now well into the CPL so it makes sense to finish it and then assess the situation honestly and objectively before starting with the IR.
Rugbyears.....Don't worry about your age mate, as WWW quite rightly says, there are many many FO's out there far beyond the age of 34. I'm mid 20's and I wouldn't say I have any advantage whatsoever over you. Infact the airline may even appreciate your additional 10 years or life experience so chin up!
Have a good one all!
2W2R
My brain is telling me to stop and go back to work for a while but my heart tells me to soldier on. Coming from a financial background (not a city broker or banker I hasten to add!) the brain wins quite convincingly so I will be going back to work. I'm now well into the CPL so it makes sense to finish it and then assess the situation honestly and objectively before starting with the IR.
Rugbyears.....Don't worry about your age mate, as WWW quite rightly says, there are many many FO's out there far beyond the age of 34. I'm mid 20's and I wouldn't say I have any advantage whatsoever over you. Infact the airline may even appreciate your additional 10 years or life experience so chin up!
Have a good one all!
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2 whites 2 reds, heres some advice for you then - your brain is made to think and control your actions and your heart is made to pump blood - go with what your brain tells you to do.
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Yes 2 whites 2 reds, complete the CPL. That will give you a good grounding and improve your flying. You have to be firm with your FTO and let them know you are boss if they try and place pressure on you.
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Yeah I have no problem standing my ground with the FTO. But they've been great thus far with the CPL. Really professional and understanding of the whole situation so I have no worries on that front.
As said above the head does indeed win so there's a pretty good chance I'll be putting things on hold for a bit after CPL's done I'll sit down and assess the whole thing properly when the time comes.
Have a good evening folks.
2W2R
As said above the head does indeed win so there's a pretty good chance I'll be putting things on hold for a bit after CPL's done I'll sit down and assess the whole thing properly when the time comes.
Have a good evening folks.
2W2R
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Good morning all, it's a frosty start to the morning but before i begin my usual routine i came across a couple of interesting stories:
Deflation risk as prices to fall
British Airways may be heading for Spain
Not surprising as Geoff Hoon is in bed with BAA which is spanish! Anyway i digress i'll leave that debate for the Jet blast part of the forum.
Deflation risk as prices to fall
The RPI measure of UK inflation is expected to be negative - a sign of falling prices- when data is released later on Tuesday.
Economists expect the Retail Prices Index (RPI), which includes housing costs, to have declined for the first time in 49 years.
If so, it will raise fears the UK is facing a damaging bout of deflation.
Economists expect the Retail Prices Index (RPI), which includes housing costs, to have declined for the first time in 49 years.
If so, it will raise fears the UK is facing a damaging bout of deflation.
The Government would not stop British Airways becoming a Spanish company as a result of a merger with Iberia, the Transport Secretary said yesterday.
BA and Iberia, the Spanish flag carrier, are believed to be near to agreeing merger terms in talks that have been continuing since July.
It is thought likely that the airlines would continue to operate as separate brands under a new operating company after the merger. However, it is not clear whether this parent company would be based in Spain or in Britain.
Geoff Hoon, the Transport Secretary, said yesterday: “We would be completely at ease if the companies took this decision [to base in Spain].”
BA and Iberia, the Spanish flag carrier, are believed to be near to agreeing merger terms in talks that have been continuing since July.
It is thought likely that the airlines would continue to operate as separate brands under a new operating company after the merger. However, it is not clear whether this parent company would be based in Spain or in Britain.
Geoff Hoon, the Transport Secretary, said yesterday: “We would be completely at ease if the companies took this decision [to base in Spain].”
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UK economy teeters on brink of deflation
Britain has fought off deflation for another month as the Retail Price Index (RPI) measure of inflation fell by less than expected, declining from an annual rate of 0.1 per cent to just 0 per cent, it was announced this morning.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) gauge of inflation unexpectedly rose, however, to 3.2 per cent, forcing Mervyn King, the Bank of England's Governor, to write another letter to the Chancellor to explain why inflation is so far above the 2 per cent target.
CPI was up from 3 per cent in January, confounding expectations that it was set to tumble after falling sharply from a peak of 5.2 per cent in September. Official figures reveal that consumer prices were driven up by rising food costs, which observers blamed on the weakness of the pound.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) gauge of inflation unexpectedly rose, however, to 3.2 per cent, forcing Mervyn King, the Bank of England's Governor, to write another letter to the Chancellor to explain why inflation is so far above the 2 per cent target.
CPI was up from 3 per cent in January, confounding expectations that it was set to tumble after falling sharply from a peak of 5.2 per cent in September. Official figures reveal that consumer prices were driven up by rising food costs, which observers blamed on the weakness of the pound.
Out with Labour!
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New IATA forecasts released... pointing to an industry loss of US$4.7bn and passenger numbers down c6% (for their 230 airlines).
On Europe expect capacity cuts of 5%.
.... grim reading... Grim Prospects - Deep Recession, Bigger Losses
“The prospects for airlines are dependant on economic recovery. There is little to indicate an early end to the downturn. It will be a grim 2009. And while prospects may improve towards the end of the year, expecting a significant recovery in 2010 would require more optimism than realism,” said Bisignani.
says it all really....
On Europe expect capacity cuts of 5%.
.... grim reading... Grim Prospects - Deep Recession, Bigger Losses
“The prospects for airlines are dependant on economic recovery. There is little to indicate an early end to the downturn. It will be a grim 2009. And while prospects may improve towards the end of the year, expecting a significant recovery in 2010 would require more optimism than realism,” said Bisignani.
says it all really....
Topslide this pikey has also gone on to employ a great many crews! Do you think we would have had the boom recently if it wasn't for the likes of RYR and ezy?
Its simple really he;s offering a product the passenger wants. If people didn't like RYR they wouldn't travel on them. Unfortunately cost is the primary factor for most people and they don't give to shakes as to what the pay and conditions are up the front end! Most of the regular punters think we are overpaid bus drivers at the best of times!
You're kidding yourself if you think MOL is the only reason for the downfall of this profession. The powers that be have been chipping away at it for years and years, we now have accountants and bankers running the show (sound familiar?). How come your not on you high horse about openskies undermining current BA pilots or Aer Lingus opening a UK base on worse terms than the guys in Ireland? Or the latest moves at Ezy to introduce summer only commands or employ through CTC? But hey MOL has been the only one to stuff up this industry?
PS how is this relevant to the topic? Surely this should go in some other more appropriate forum?
Its simple really he;s offering a product the passenger wants. If people didn't like RYR they wouldn't travel on them. Unfortunately cost is the primary factor for most people and they don't give to shakes as to what the pay and conditions are up the front end! Most of the regular punters think we are overpaid bus drivers at the best of times!
You're kidding yourself if you think MOL is the only reason for the downfall of this profession. The powers that be have been chipping away at it for years and years, we now have accountants and bankers running the show (sound familiar?). How come your not on you high horse about openskies undermining current BA pilots or Aer Lingus opening a UK base on worse terms than the guys in Ireland? Or the latest moves at Ezy to introduce summer only commands or employ through CTC? But hey MOL has been the only one to stuff up this industry?
PS how is this relevant to the topic? Surely this should go in some other more appropriate forum?
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You're kidding yourself if you think MOL is the only reason for the downfall of this profession
Look, I agree with all this, BUT the thread is about something else. Lets desist here, please start up elsewhere, and keep this to the macro economic level.
And yes. I'd punch his lights out if I met him and could get away with it.
WWW
And yes. I'd punch his lights out if I met him and could get away with it.
WWW