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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Old 18th Sep 2008, 14:33
  #521 (permalink)  
 
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Lloyds TSB HBOS merger

Just been watching Sky News about the Lloyds TSB HBOS merger. Why is it that we haven't heard a sqeak from that irritating man Gordon Brown whilst the excrement has been flying around for weeks during which Lehman Brothers and two airlines have gone bust laying of thousands of workers.
I wonder if HBOS had announced their woes before Lehman had gone bust if the prime minister would have taken such decisive action to not bail out HBOS.
Low and behold as soon as the merger is announced Gordon Brown is on television taking part of the credit for it claiming that he "looked at the competition laws" and decided that the best course of action was to allow the merger to go ahead. The monolopy this new bank now has makes a mockery of the competition laws.

When asked whether he thought we would go deeper into recession he started to reel of all the countries that had been in negative growth for some time with that irritating patronising smile of his.
Gordon we are not interested in what other countries state of recession is.
I wouldn't like to be writing his conference speach.

Sorry just had to let off some steam.
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 15:28
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I agree, Not many countries have a prime minister or some kind of leader which is an (supposed to be) in finance.... And yet Gordon says absolutaly nothing...

In one way it is understandable,,, for if he got it wrong, it is the type of the British public to rip him to shreds if he did... MAYBE mmmm??

I find this annoying everything is falling apart and yet there is nothing said about how long??, how bad?? this will get so everyone has some sort of idea....
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 15:33
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This lets blame the "Short Seller's" is insane, there is always two sides to a trade and there has been good reason to short a company when the captial to lending ratio was 1.0 to 1.70 ie every £1 pound they had they lent £1.70....

I also hear no one blaming short seller's when it comes to helping crude oil go from $147 to now below $100
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 15:41
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I'd only like to point out, I read all the other threads which are of interest to me (although I've yet to find the "I've got an airline which needs 500 new, low hour, pilots from about December onwards and I'll pay them £100k a year each plus bens" thread...if someone would be so good as to point me in the right direction?). And as MikeCR so eloquently points out, there is plenty of useful advice in those. For me however, this thread has become a road crash, something you know you don't want to look at, but can't help in between looking at something useful. It shouldn't be that way.

My point on this thread is exactly as JB007 points out....do I care WHY I'm up the proverbial estuary without a visible means of locomotion? Well, to a limited degree, yes...but nowhere near as much as I care about "where can I find a paddle at short notice?". Fortunately for me, I remembered to pack my handily portable outboard motor, so provided I can get it started, I should be ok....but for anyone without that, the last nine, NINE....that's NINE pages have told no-one anything new. And it is that which I am suggesting might be better placed elsewhere, to allow this to go back to being the little ray of sunshine on an afternoon of TCU and +RA that it should be. Yes, those thinking about it right now need warning of the current situation, but you really think that anyone is now going to trawl through 26+ pages, a third of which are saying the same thing?...they're not....so despite "best endeavours" to warn them off, all you've succeeded in doing is scared them off reading the very info you want them to have.

THAT is what this thread should be about. Not amateur hour in the economics section of the local library.
Mikes earlier point about looking elsewhere for relevant threads is good advice, but should it be necessary? Trust me...everyone I've spoken to who is currently in training is all too - painfully - aware of the current situation...but it seems, ironically, the more experienced posters here who think we desperately need to be told about it AGAIN!
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 15:55
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Clanger,

Theres some options folks can explore apart from the airlines and biz/corporate. Safety Pilot work is always out there. Not much but it can open doors. I know of a a few companies who utilise fatpl guys. Some of the flying is loggable, some not. PM me if you want details.
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 16:44
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Thank you MikeCR,you summed it up very well.
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 16:45
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For me however, this thread has become a road crash, something you know you don't want to look at, but can't help in between looking at something useful. It shouldn't be that way.
Assuming this thread goes the distance i'm sure you'd be taking a different view when it actually does start discussing an up turn. Eventually you will read something you want to hear.

IMO Grass Strip Basher has brought that first little kernel of hope by saying
The events required to kick start a recovery are already underway... i.e. significant government intervention... things are a little calmer today but confidence is ebbing and flowing.
Reporting of events seems calmer than it was over the last few days, lets hope it stays that way and the remaining skeletons are kept in the cupboard.

Economics might not be as glamorous as flying but I'd also back GSBs comment
Those knocking the economics "theme" in this thread miss the point.... it is these themes that will drive the recovery in airline recruitment you are looking for... ignore them at your peril.... as some are now finding to their cost.
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 16:47
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Clanger and others who want advice as to how to survive the next couple of years.

As with any life form on the planet it's "Survival of the fittest" or be flexible.
There's a couple of dos and don'ts, some applicable, some impossible.

* Don't p!ss off your instructors or colleagues. No one likes a smart arse.
I've just given two recommendations to friends from ATPL ground school. Why? Because they were social enough to have a drink & a laugh with plus they did well at the exams. (both have held flying jobs but now out of work)

I've survived on colleagues recommendations as well. It doesn't matter what you do, do it well. Aviation is a ridiculously small world.

* Network. Not unlike the above. It's a lot easier these days with Facebook etc. Don't be too snooty with meeting up for a drink in the aero club etc. Also, before sounding off about what a bloody legend you are, know your audience. No one minds being asked a question or two, but be aware of thrusting your CV into the hands of the jet jockey that's having a break/meeting up with friends. Timing is every thing.


* Seek opportunities. Take ground jobs. Find FBOs and learn the environment. FBOs that are handling bizjets etc are a smart move.
I took a night ops job because no one else would. 6 months later, I'm flying.
Washing aircraft impressed another boss, it got me my big start...

* Instructor ratings are useful. You can translate them into being a line trainer in the future etc. Also, gets you in the environment, gaining hours and experience. If you can instruct on a field that also has bizjet traffic, useful.

* computing skills, language skills, customer relation skills. Never wasted.

* engineering skills. Very valuable. (Not a degree, but spannering skills!)

* if you can, move. Whether it be 300 miles or 3,000 miles. Do so. Go and seek those jobs that are there. Bush flying in Africa. Tourist flying in the Caribbean, fish spotting in the North Sea. Go for it.

* Take the first solid job offer. 500 hours in a king air is better than 12 months in a jet hold pool....

* While you have to keep an eye on your exam validity, if you can, delay your IR until there's signs that economy has stopped free falling.

Good luck.
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 17:02
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Guys, I would recommend printing and framing Reddo's advice. I couldn't have put it better myself.
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 17:37
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I got my first job as I said I would wash and polish the company Kingair (LJ124) that led to 20000hrs and a widebody capt.
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 17:49
  #531 (permalink)  

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couldn't resist!!

Strewth Rog, after washing and polishing the king air, you had to wash and polish the 20,000 hour wide body captain as well?
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 19:34
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Bloody 'ell rog - that 90's older than me must be a late 60's model
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Old 18th Sep 2008, 21:37
  #533 (permalink)  

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Let's be honest, what's more important is Katie and Peter: The Next Chapter starts in half an hour!!!!!!

(Anyone else noticed how serious this thread is during business hours then just get's silly late at night..??)
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Old 19th Sep 2008, 10:01
  #534 (permalink)  

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Sorry JB

How to monitor the situation.

* Read Flight International. Learn to interpret the job ads. Look for engineering, sim instructors, sim tech jobs. Why? means expansion.

* Understand that the CAA in the UK only permits a certain percentage of inexperienced/low houred crew in the mix. Therefore, if you hear of company X hiring a lot of low houred guys recently, by all means try your luck but you might be disappointed. So, if you know airline Y has taken on low houred pilots in the past but have only recruited experienced guys, send in a CV.

* Take the time to find out who the people are you're writing to. Use spell checker. Don't forget to change all the names in the letter....Sending a wonderful CV to bmi however forgetting to remove British Airways in the covering letter loses a lot of points...

* Be flexible. The harder you work the luckier you get.

Good luck.
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Old 19th Sep 2008, 10:43
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Strewth Rog, after washing and polishing the king air, you had to wash and polish the 20,000 hour wide body captain as well?
Ha de Ha


Your quite right, it was 60s model
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Old 19th Sep 2008, 11:57
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In the US i've seen several instructors get jobs because an airline employee has come into the school looking for pilots on the off chance, most were freight jobs or scenic flights but one picked up a nice corporate job on a saberliner and another friend of mine got a job with North West that way. I've picked up ferry flights and ad hoc delivery freight/delivery flights because I was hanging out at the airport.

It does happen in the UK although i've never been quite so lucky personally although i've got lots of freebies which is all hours in the book.

Never turn down any job, you never know what it will lead too and it builds contacts. I've seen more than one wannabee turn down a job because they thought it was below them or it didn't pay enough only to later regret it later. If someone is willing to pay you to fly that's still better than paying for it yourself.
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Old 19th Sep 2008, 18:26
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A stunned silence....

It’s been 24 hours since the last finance related post... guess no one was expecting today’s events!

iX
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Old 19th Sep 2008, 19:34
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Definately good news, at least it's stopped the rot. Now to see who's going to be right, the pessimists who are saying the banking system is a complete shambles and will inevitably implode or the optimists who are saying things should start to get better next year. I still reckon somewhere inbetween to two and we wont see any significant recruitment for 3 years+.
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Old 19th Sep 2008, 20:04
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Please let us not get carried away with one 'good' day on the markets. There is something seriously broken here and a $***BN payout by the national banks will not resolve that.

I agree, a less depressing day, but please don't be suckered into thinking that the light at the end of the tunnel has suddenly been switched on.
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Old 19th Sep 2008, 20:57
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And the opposite could also be true. When there is a bad day its the end of the world?
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