Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
Age: 49
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Yeah man shut the F'up all those pilots at XL with 2 kids to feed and a mortgage. Just get over it... who cares if you are out of a job for a year or two, lose your house etc.... live in the real world where nothing matters man... it will all end someday 
few too many down the local last night Dr?
few too many down the local last night Dr?
Join Date: May 2008
Location: FL 350
Posts: 346
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
House price falls 'accelerating'
The fall in house prices has accelerated in England and Wales, according to the Land Registry.
Its latest report shows that prices fell by 1.9% in August, taking the annual rate of price deflation to 4.6%. The figures mean that the average property now costs £174,493; £8,320 less than a year ago, with £3,871 of that drop occurring last month.
Its latest report shows that prices fell by 1.9% in August, taking the annual rate of price deflation to 4.6%. The figures mean that the average property now costs £174,493; £8,320 less than a year ago, with £3,871 of that drop occurring last month.
BBC NEWS | Business | House price falls 'accelerating'
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 1,608
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Who gives a flying f**K, we are all in the same boat. It will end sometime nobody knows when so there is no point going on speculating when its all going to end or how much worse its going to get.
If you don't want to participate in this thread, don't read it.
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Scottish FIR
Posts: 344
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by Re-Heat
If you don't want to participate in this thread, don't read it.
Yes it is a depressing subject, but armed with knowledge you can change your future, (for the better).
On the other hand, ignore this thread and the news papers and let lady luck take care of it all.
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
Age: 49
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The cost of the "bailout" is NOT $700bn.... the US taxpayers gets lots of assets in exchange which may actually be worth a lot more than $700bn if held till maturity. Given the financial turmoil at the moment the US government may be the only balance sheet that has the luxury of being able to hold them to maturity. In fact the US tax payer could make a killing out of this.
Read or listen to the Buffet interview on CNBC a couple of days ago... hard to argue he is a man that doesn't know a thing or two about investing.
Also the last time a scheme like this was set up the US government ended up making money out of it. I would advise against listening to the politicalisation of this process with idiotic senators in the US who don't have a clue what the alternative scenario looks like but are more interested in forwarding their own careers. In my opinion there is a 95% chance these scheme will be approved one way or another in the next couple of days... if it doesn't then severe recession here we come... and 15-20% of the FTSE in a day.
GETTING THIS BILL PASSED IS PROBABLY THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT EVENT FOR YOUNG WANABEES HAPPENING AT THE MOMENT.....there is a small chance a group of politicians with no financial background could screw it up.... if this does not happen it will push out the pilot job recovery out at least another 1-2 years....and yet some folks on this form still think economics and markets don't matter
Read or listen to the Buffet interview on CNBC a couple of days ago... hard to argue he is a man that doesn't know a thing or two about investing.
Also the last time a scheme like this was set up the US government ended up making money out of it. I would advise against listening to the politicalisation of this process with idiotic senators in the US who don't have a clue what the alternative scenario looks like but are more interested in forwarding their own careers. In my opinion there is a 95% chance these scheme will be approved one way or another in the next couple of days... if it doesn't then severe recession here we come... and 15-20% of the FTSE in a day.
GETTING THIS BILL PASSED IS PROBABLY THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT EVENT FOR YOUNG WANABEES HAPPENING AT THE MOMENT.....there is a small chance a group of politicians with no financial background could screw it up.... if this does not happen it will push out the pilot job recovery out at least another 1-2 years....and yet some folks on this form still think economics and markets don't matter
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: between a rock and a hard place
Posts: 261
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Given the financial turmoil at the moment the US government may be the only balance sheet that has the luxury of being able to hold them to maturity. In fact the US tax payer could make a killing out of this.
I agree this is the only chance to get the financial system back on track in a timely manner and ultimately the aviation sector. It might not address all the problems but it seems to be the least painful option to give the banks a chance to sort their house out. When/If it's passed, the government needs to show they have the balls to ween the banks and public off their culture of credit and greed!!
IMO this means no more 100% 5x income mortgages, tighter control over lie to buy mortgages and no more 70K career loans, heaven forbid wannabees will have to work for the money to train for their dream job rather than have it handed to them on a plate.
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
Age: 49
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Chris about 12-18 months ago in the wanabees forum in Pprune there was a thread that actively encouraged wanabees to get £70k-80k in debt for their training and then declare themsleves bankrupt... this was being suggest as a via and credible route to getting a frozen ATPL without the burden of the associated cost... it even received support from some of the more "seasonsed" Pprune veterans.
It is the sort of individuals that went down that route that are the root cause of many of the issues we have now in the banking system.... I'm not just talking about in aviation but the broader general attitude of shirking debt related responsibilities people have signed up to. These wanabees are as bad if not worse as the buy-to-let landlord who over stretched himself and defaulted.... their selfish approach is unfortunately likely to have ruined it for those coming along behind.
Back then some people flagged that this reckless approach to borrowing would signal the end of the £50k wanabee loan.... looks like those folks may well prove to be correct.
God forbid you might have to actually WORK and save for your training.... what ever next
It is the sort of individuals that went down that route that are the root cause of many of the issues we have now in the banking system.... I'm not just talking about in aviation but the broader general attitude of shirking debt related responsibilities people have signed up to. These wanabees are as bad if not worse as the buy-to-let landlord who over stretched himself and defaulted.... their selfish approach is unfortunately likely to have ruined it for those coming along behind.
Back then some people flagged that this reckless approach to borrowing would signal the end of the £50k wanabee loan.... looks like those folks may well prove to be correct.
God forbid you might have to actually WORK and save for your training.... what ever next
Thread Starter
Join Date: May 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 715
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I don't agree with pay for line training schemes and paying for your own type rating isn't ideal either. However, to suggest people who have done either are to blame for the current mess is horlicks. If you are going to take that line of argument you may as well blame anyone with a credit card guys.
Borrowing money with an awareness of how much you will pay back over how many months/years and with a firm plan of how you are going to do this is one thing, to borrow recklessly without any thought as to how the debt can be re-paid is something else altogether. I would suggest someone who borrowed cash to fund a cpl/ir and a 737 rating would fit into the former category.
I'd vent your frustration towards the financial institutions and credit companys who have willfully lent money they could never hope to recover, and will now be bailed out with taxpayers money.
Borrowing money with an awareness of how much you will pay back over how many months/years and with a firm plan of how you are going to do this is one thing, to borrow recklessly without any thought as to how the debt can be re-paid is something else altogether. I would suggest someone who borrowed cash to fund a cpl/ir and a 737 rating would fit into the former category.
I'd vent your frustration towards the financial institutions and credit companys who have willfully lent money they could never hope to recover, and will now be bailed out with taxpayers money.
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
Age: 49
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
No if you borrow money and don't pay it back you are part of the problem. Full stop. Enough shirking of responsibilities... oh it wasn't my fault etc etc... it called being responsible for you own actions. In some coutries around the world they throw you in jail for not repaying debt it is that serious... but it makes people think twice.
It is not the financial institutions that are getting bailed out... that shows a complete lack of understanding. It is the depositors (and rightly so). Why should people who have saved money prudently with that bank lose their money? The shareholders of the bank are wiped out...not bailed out.
Thats the problem with this crisis... too many people believing what they read in the press which is woefully miss-informed.
It is not the financial institutions that are getting bailed out... that shows a complete lack of understanding. It is the depositors (and rightly so). Why should people who have saved money prudently with that bank lose their money? The shareholders of the bank are wiped out...not bailed out.
Thats the problem with this crisis... too many people believing what they read in the press which is woefully miss-informed.
Thread Starter
Join Date: May 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 715
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The financial institutions, their senior staff, their policy makers, those who decide who to lend to, what rate to lend at, how much they will lend are being bailed out. I never said people who default on payments are not part of the problem. Those who are defaulting are being bailed out as a side-affect of senior financial sector employees who should have known better totally 
it up.
You sit someone down infront of a desk in a bank and tell them they can afford a three bed semi in a decent area of town, that they have tried to work towards owning for god knows how long, and they will bite.
Blame the defaulters all you like, if the money wasn't being lent in a criminal fashion in the first place their weak will and poor understanding of how credit actually works would never have been exposed.
it up.You sit someone down infront of a desk in a bank and tell them they can afford a three bed semi in a decent area of town, that they have tried to work towards owning for god knows how long, and they will bite.
Blame the defaulters all you like, if the money wasn't being lent in a criminal fashion in the first place their weak will and poor understanding of how credit actually works would never have been exposed.
Chicken and egg situation.
Blame the people for borrowing or blame the banks for lending. I blame neither.
I blame the government and their financial regulators and central banks. The current crisis was forseen by little old me 18 months ago. Sure as hell those at the top knew way before me what was to unfold. But the asset bubble made the voters feel good and that returned governments.
Planned bankruptcy was and is a pefectly rational and logical path for a young Wannabe. Its a path opened up the governments sharp relaxation of the penalties of bakruptcy and its tarmaced by the banks who just want to shovel the money out of the door instead of asking questions. The path leads to moral and societal oblivion but the Wannabe played only a part in his journey down it.
270 odd CTC cadets concerned about actually getting placed in an airline will probably be getting quite clued up about bankruptcy law at the moment.
I'm against the Paulson bailout as:
a) I think its theft, and
b) I don't think it will work
Recessions are meant to restore balance, purge excess, and liquidate mal-investments. We *need* a whopper of a recession.
2009 is going to be a repeat of 1991 and a great many airlines will go bust. Spock the Wannabe would probably stop spending on training immediately. Many won't - I was talking to one this morning taking their Multi IR on Monday believing that would ideally position them for when jobs become available in 18 months time..!
A failure to read up on any history there then.
WWW
Blame the people for borrowing or blame the banks for lending. I blame neither.
I blame the government and their financial regulators and central banks. The current crisis was forseen by little old me 18 months ago. Sure as hell those at the top knew way before me what was to unfold. But the asset bubble made the voters feel good and that returned governments.
Planned bankruptcy was and is a pefectly rational and logical path for a young Wannabe. Its a path opened up the governments sharp relaxation of the penalties of bakruptcy and its tarmaced by the banks who just want to shovel the money out of the door instead of asking questions. The path leads to moral and societal oblivion but the Wannabe played only a part in his journey down it.
270 odd CTC cadets concerned about actually getting placed in an airline will probably be getting quite clued up about bankruptcy law at the moment.
I'm against the Paulson bailout as:
a) I think its theft, and
b) I don't think it will work
Recessions are meant to restore balance, purge excess, and liquidate mal-investments. We *need* a whopper of a recession.
2009 is going to be a repeat of 1991 and a great many airlines will go bust. Spock the Wannabe would probably stop spending on training immediately. Many won't - I was talking to one this morning taking their Multi IR on Monday believing that would ideally position them for when jobs become available in 18 months time..!
A failure to read up on any history there then.
WWW
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
Age: 49
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
WWW so you think it is fair for depositors with more than the FSA £35k maximum to lose their money in these banks? Geeez screw saving then may as well go out and blow all our cash... whats the point in saving money if it just gets wiped out by the debts of wreckless borrowers....
Who is the Paulson plan stealing from exactly? If it is the taxpayer?... then the assets they get in exchange may be worth more than the $700bn?
It will cost the tax payers a lot more than $700bn if it doesn't happen. I will guarantee you within a week of them saying the bailout is no go the US taxpayer will be taking ownership of Wachovia, National City and a raft of other banks with balance sheets totalling way more than $700bn as they all collapse under the weight of illiquid money markets.
If this plan doesn't happen we will go into financial meltdown. I never though I would say this..... but WWW I think you are too optimistic in terms of your view of the world if this plan doesn't happen!!
Geeez even Paulson is getting down on one knee to beg for it.... Buffet says it is essential.... who would you listen to??
1991 was very different to today... I would take the 1991 situation in preference to this without a second thought.... fear not WWW you will get you severe recession.... this is about preventing a depression
Who is the Paulson plan stealing from exactly? If it is the taxpayer?... then the assets they get in exchange may be worth more than the $700bn?
It will cost the tax payers a lot more than $700bn if it doesn't happen. I will guarantee you within a week of them saying the bailout is no go the US taxpayer will be taking ownership of Wachovia, National City and a raft of other banks with balance sheets totalling way more than $700bn as they all collapse under the weight of illiquid money markets.
If this plan doesn't happen we will go into financial meltdown. I never though I would say this..... but WWW I think you are too optimistic in terms of your view of the world if this plan doesn't happen!!
Geeez even Paulson is getting down on one knee to beg for it.... Buffet says it is essential.... who would you listen to??
1991 was very different to today... I would take the 1991 situation in preference to this without a second thought.... fear not WWW you will get you severe recession.... this is about preventing a depression
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: between a rock and a hard place
Posts: 261
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Chris about 12-18 months ago in the wanabees forum in Pprune there was a thread that actively encouraged wanabees to get £70k-80k in debt for their training and then declare themsleves bankrupt... this was being suggest as a via and credible route to getting a frozen ATPL without the burden of the associated cost... it even received support from some of the more "seasonsed" Pprune veterans.
What a bunch of wits, those who considered it and those who encouraged it!!!It begs the question, should the people that are willing to take those sort of risks be allowed to be responsible for several million pounds of captial investment and thousands of peoples lives over their careers ?
Everyone's looking for someone to blame for the mess we are all, some people are blaming the banks and financial institutions while others are blaming the government. Very few seem to want to blame the people at the heart of this mess, the borrowers, particularly borrowers who apparently seem to think it's OK to risk 70-80k because they have a dream to fly big jets, particularly when there is relatively little call for people to fly big jets and we a crying out for engineers, doctors and dentists etc.
All of the above are equally to blame, anyone who takes out ridiculously large career loans, anyone who takes out 100%+ mortgages, anyone who then takes out further loans to furnish their house, anyone who is willing to hand out these loans or take similar risks in the financial sector in the hope of big financial rewards and anyone who stands by allowing all this to happen when they have the power to prevent it like the Governement and any regulating bodies. We're in this mess because of greed, it's greed that's to blame and it's not just the greedy that suffer, the rest of us are suffering too!!
For a recovery to be sustainable we need it to be slow steady and stable. The wise aviator will take that approach with their training. If you don't have the money to spend on your trainning i'd suggest the old fashioned route, take one step at a time as and when you can afford it. Build hours however you can whether it be instructing or anysort of lowpaid ariel work that comes along, imo it will make you into a more rounded pilot. It may not make a difference in right hand seat of a fancy shiny jet where you're watched over by countless computers to reduce the chances of you making a mistake but it will make you a better aviator and I reckon the whole experience will be more enjoyable too, especially when you open that first big pay packet and you realise all of it is yours.
(by the way, for anyone who thinks that this will make aviation a career exclusive to those with wealthy parents, tough, that's life, if you think that's unfair then you've been sucked in by this government. Meanwhile the dilligent will refrain from whining, keep their heads down, work hard and get there by hard graft as they have done in the past and will continue to do)
Last edited by ChrisLKKB; 27th Sep 2008 at 14:52.
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: between a rock and a hard place
Posts: 261
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Not necessarily all. Some pay off their credit cards in full every month, some put down large deposits on their house and take out mortgages well within their means, some only buy things when there is cash in the bank to cover it (yes folks there are some people who still do that), some make do without when others max out their credit cards on all the trappings of modern consumerism.
Here's the stumbling block in all this piety though because some have also tried saving for the future and inevitably, part of the interest from those savings somewhere along the line is probably generated by hedge funds and similar high risk stratergies so even the diligent could be accused of contributing to this. But, it would be more foolish to just put your money under a matress left to the ravages of inflation and and an escilating crime rate so no, I don't accept we are all to blame!
Edit; I'm just ranting now, it doesn't change the fact that to a greater or lesser extent, for the forseeable future we are all screwed.
Here's the stumbling block in all this piety though because some have also tried saving for the future and inevitably, part of the interest from those savings somewhere along the line is probably generated by hedge funds and similar high risk stratergies so even the diligent could be accused of contributing to this. But, it would be more foolish to just put your money under a matress left to the ravages of inflation and and an escilating crime rate so no, I don't accept we are all to blame!
Edit; I'm just ranting now, it doesn't change the fact that to a greater or lesser extent, for the forseeable future we are all screwed.
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
Age: 49
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Some people will have put their money in a "safe" sensible prudent money market fund to save for their pilot training but will now be screwed because the money markets have frozen and they can't easily get their money out... and they may even have lost a slug of it.... these are the people the $700bn is aimed at bailing out
96% of depositers are totally covered by the £35k insurance and the 4% who aren't should have had sense to move it into Northern Rock or Nationwide or NS&I by now.
The theft is from the future generations of US taxpayer who will have to pay the taxes to repay this bankers bailout. The urgency for panicky calls for this bailout is based on the claim that the American economy will collapse if nothing is done. If the government were to keep out, and allow the market to function, there will certainly be a great deal of economic pain. Companies will go bankrupt, banks will fail, real estate and stock prices will keep falling, and many people will lose their jobs.
BUT, government action will not prevent any of this. At best, it will merely delay the it, but only at the cost of increasing the severity of the underlying problems, therefore making their ultimate resolution that much more painful to endure.
The fundamental lesson is that there is no way to resolve our economic problems without a severe recession. Our politicians need to be honest with the public. As a country, we gambled on the alluring riches of property and we lost. The bill is about to be presented.
The Resolution Trust Corporation set up as the bailout for the Savings & Loans crisis DID NOT end up making money for the taxpayer unless you use some very funny accounting and a Tardis.
Hundreds of Wannabes will be using the bankruptcy courts protection in 2009 - I'd bet my last worthless dollar on it.
WWW
The theft is from the future generations of US taxpayer who will have to pay the taxes to repay this bankers bailout. The urgency for panicky calls for this bailout is based on the claim that the American economy will collapse if nothing is done. If the government were to keep out, and allow the market to function, there will certainly be a great deal of economic pain. Companies will go bankrupt, banks will fail, real estate and stock prices will keep falling, and many people will lose their jobs.
BUT, government action will not prevent any of this. At best, it will merely delay the it, but only at the cost of increasing the severity of the underlying problems, therefore making their ultimate resolution that much more painful to endure.
The fundamental lesson is that there is no way to resolve our economic problems without a severe recession. Our politicians need to be honest with the public. As a country, we gambled on the alluring riches of property and we lost. The bill is about to be presented.
The Resolution Trust Corporation set up as the bailout for the Savings & Loans crisis DID NOT end up making money for the taxpayer unless you use some very funny accounting and a Tardis.
Hundreds of Wannabes will be using the bankruptcy courts protection in 2009 - I'd bet my last worthless dollar on it.
WWW
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: between a rock and a hard place
Posts: 261
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Describing something that is intended to protect so many people from financial ruin as theft from future generations is is way of the mark and nothing but alarmist, socialist propaganda. It's no more theft than free education, unemployment benefits or disability benefits.
It may not benefit the entire population although many would argue that the implications of not trying to address this situation would have dire concequences for everyone on one way or another. It will benefit a vast proportion of the population though, not just the ultra wealthy , city brokers and fat cats but the ordinary man on the street who has been prudent, followed conventional wisdom and put money into personal pensions, savings plans, bonds, and endowment mortgages, not because of greed but because it's seen as the done thing to make the most of your money.
It's not their fault that so called city wizz kids have taken unacceptable risks with their money or that these risks could lead to the collapse of financial institutions and stock markets.
Some are saying that taking on these toxic assets will ultimately be profitable and therefore will actually benefit future generations so it can be argued that this is the only sensible solution although I agree that even if more tax payers money is pumped into the system it wont prevent a long painful recession but not doing so will be worse and the people who are least able to suffer the effects will be worst hit.
It may not benefit the entire population although many would argue that the implications of not trying to address this situation would have dire concequences for everyone on one way or another. It will benefit a vast proportion of the population though, not just the ultra wealthy , city brokers and fat cats but the ordinary man on the street who has been prudent, followed conventional wisdom and put money into personal pensions, savings plans, bonds, and endowment mortgages, not because of greed but because it's seen as the done thing to make the most of your money.
It's not their fault that so called city wizz kids have taken unacceptable risks with their money or that these risks could lead to the collapse of financial institutions and stock markets.
Some are saying that taking on these toxic assets will ultimately be profitable and therefore will actually benefit future generations so it can be argued that this is the only sensible solution although I agree that even if more tax payers money is pumped into the system it wont prevent a long painful recession but not doing so will be worse and the people who are least able to suffer the effects will be worst hit.
Last edited by ChrisLKKB; 27th Sep 2008 at 20:50.