Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Originally Posted by ix_touring
Just how is this causing a big impact on the man in the street (estate agents excluded) going about their normal (not those jacking it all in to retrain as a fATPL) day to day life?
You raise an interesting point about the LTV. Correct me if I'm wrong. But as your house goes down in value, your interest rate increases if you re-mortgage?
So a few weeks back I posted about the ability to still get a remortgage at a sensible rate etc.
Then the last 2 weeks of mayhem has happened, there's been loads of chat about lack of lending etc.
So, this evening I have just done the remortgage of my other house, the cost has gone up by .54% over what I was paying, roughly £175 extra (a "jump" of about 11%.
So not really the death jump that the press would suggest, clearly the fall in prices is a pain, neither property is in the sub 75% LTV band now... had they been in it, the rates would only be about .25% over the expiring ones - Doh!
It’s just not doom and gloom out there! warnings of lights not working if there's an earthquake somewhere etc are pointless. The facts speak for themselves: if you were stupid and highly leveraged, you are still stupid and highly geared. Had you lost your job last year you'd be out, if you lose your job now you still be out (but you may get gov't help now).
Yes your pension will take a hit, yes it costs more to run your car etc But the pension is not affecting you now or for the next few years and will recover; we as brits drive too much anyway, you can save 20% on your fuel just in altering your driving habits (as aviation enthusiast you know all about fuel efficiencies don't you). If you're about to retire, you shouldn't have a mortgage anyway but if your pot takes a hit, work another couple of years or take the cash and make out on 6% bank interest.
If your at the "not able to buy" end of the market, then your laughing as rents are cracking good value compared to interest and house costs.
Just how is this causing a big impact on the man in the street (estate agents excluded) going about their normal (not those jacking it all in to retrain as a fATPL) day to day life?
iX
Then the last 2 weeks of mayhem has happened, there's been loads of chat about lack of lending etc.
So, this evening I have just done the remortgage of my other house, the cost has gone up by .54% over what I was paying, roughly £175 extra (a "jump" of about 11%.
So not really the death jump that the press would suggest, clearly the fall in prices is a pain, neither property is in the sub 75% LTV band now... had they been in it, the rates would only be about .25% over the expiring ones - Doh!
It’s just not doom and gloom out there! warnings of lights not working if there's an earthquake somewhere etc are pointless. The facts speak for themselves: if you were stupid and highly leveraged, you are still stupid and highly geared. Had you lost your job last year you'd be out, if you lose your job now you still be out (but you may get gov't help now).
Yes your pension will take a hit, yes it costs more to run your car etc But the pension is not affecting you now or for the next few years and will recover; we as brits drive too much anyway, you can save 20% on your fuel just in altering your driving habits (as aviation enthusiast you know all about fuel efficiencies don't you). If you're about to retire, you shouldn't have a mortgage anyway but if your pot takes a hit, work another couple of years or take the cash and make out on 6% bank interest.
If your at the "not able to buy" end of the market, then your laughing as rents are cracking good value compared to interest and house costs.
Just how is this causing a big impact on the man in the street (estate agents excluded) going about their normal (not those jacking it all in to retrain as a fATPL) day to day life?
iX
Hmmm
if you were stupid and highly leveraged, you are still stupid and highly geared. Had yoiu lost your job last year you'd be out, if you lose your job now you still be out
That's the problem. You might be alright. The stupidly over leveraged fellow customers you are now losing their jobs are dragging you down.
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Apparently business class airline seats are selling quite well on certain routes, while the economy seats are taking a hit. I presume that's because a lot of worried bankers are doing a bit more travelling.
BA’s premium passenger traffic drops
By Kevin Done, Aerospace Correspondent
Published: October 3 2008 20:39 | Last updated: October 3 2008 20:39
Shares in British Airways fell 7 per cent on Friday to their lowest level for more than five years as the airline announced a big drop in premium passenger traffic in September.
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Speaking to 2 mates in the pub last night - one had just laid off 40 people that day, another had laid off 8 on the last week.
An estate agent friend has laid off 100 people since March (across his chain).
Another who owns a car dealership is now uncomfortable about having a beer in the pub each night (not for health reasons but financial).
It is very bad out there in the real world.
An estate agent friend has laid off 100 people since March (across his chain).
Another who owns a car dealership is now uncomfortable about having a beer in the pub each night (not for health reasons but financial).
It is very bad out there in the real world.
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A lot of industries must be loosing out. Air travel is a subsidiary of other industries. People travel for business, if there is no business, there is no business travel. If people earn no money through business then they can't go on holiday.
The answer to all 'wannabes' probably isn't to 'go and just do something else', because I know in a lot of cases that there simply isn't something else to do
The answer to all 'wannabes' probably isn't to 'go and just do something else', because I know in a lot of cases that there simply isn't something else to do
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Is this our crystal ball?
Icelands currency looks decidedly shakey as liabilities have grown to nine times the GDP! If this is a vision of our own immediate future, even with the rosiest rose tinted specs, it looks crap. 
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Re-Heat,
Thanks for your correction to my earlier post.
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Re-Heat,
Thanks for your correction to my earlier post.
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Now for some positive news
While I agree the above scenarios are all quite possible the fact that the Governments have acted quickly to this current crisis is a very positive sign. (it's just a shame they didn't act quickly to prevent this crisis many years ago
).
Lessons have been learned from the credit crunch in Japan which followed impressive but unsustainable economic growth, similar to the situation we are facing now and although we may be making our own mistakes we are in better shape to make the right descisions and avoid complete melt down.
The view is that the $700bn isn't going to be sufficient and it will cost US tax payers much more but so what, it's the majority of these tax payers that regardless of their opposition to disgustingly high fat cat sallaries, fully supported capitalism and benefited from from the boom years.
We are undoubtably going to be faced with 'a world of pain' but the world wont come to an end. It appears to be universally agreed that 2009 is going to be really sh
it and personally I don't think 2010 is going to be any better but there are signs that the stock market is approaching the bottom and Anthony Bolton (Englands answer to Warren Buffet, the worlds most sucsessful investor) is starting to buy shares for the first time in a couple of years. I doubt very much if they were going to fall much further or stagnate for many years that he'd be risking his hard earned cash.
It's still barking mad to even consider doing an intergrated course right now but personally I'd take some comfort in this news....
In itself I don't think the fact that Ryanairs pax numbers are up is good news, it just means that more people are turning to low cost carriers. Over all numbers of people traveling will still continue to fall and probably a few more airlines will cease to exist but it bodes well that it's a carrier that historically employs low hour pilots that is likely to come through this recession relatively unscathed. IMO though it'll be a foolish person who racks up huge debts in the hope of a large salary once they get their first job because given the current situation that first airline job could be a long way away and if MOL doesn't find a way to reduce the overall take home pay of newbie pilots when they do start recruiting again, i'll eat my hat. Never the less if you genuinely want to fly for a living and it's not just the nice fat salary that attracts you then there will be oppotunities reasonably early on in the recovery.
While I agree the above scenarios are all quite possible the fact that the Governments have acted quickly to this current crisis is a very positive sign. (it's just a shame they didn't act quickly to prevent this crisis many years ago
). Lessons have been learned from the credit crunch in Japan which followed impressive but unsustainable economic growth, similar to the situation we are facing now and although we may be making our own mistakes we are in better shape to make the right descisions and avoid complete melt down.
The view is that the $700bn isn't going to be sufficient and it will cost US tax payers much more but so what, it's the majority of these tax payers that regardless of their opposition to disgustingly high fat cat sallaries, fully supported capitalism and benefited from from the boom years.
We are undoubtably going to be faced with 'a world of pain' but the world wont come to an end. It appears to be universally agreed that 2009 is going to be really sh
it and personally I don't think 2010 is going to be any better but there are signs that the stock market is approaching the bottom and Anthony Bolton (Englands answer to Warren Buffet, the worlds most sucsessful investor) is starting to buy shares for the first time in a couple of years. I doubt very much if they were going to fall much further or stagnate for many years that he'd be risking his hard earned cash.It's still barking mad to even consider doing an intergrated course right now but personally I'd take some comfort in this news....
British Airways was a heavy faller after the airline reported a drop in traffic in September as tight economic conditions curbed air travel and said the outlook remains challenging. BA carried about 2.8m passengers during the month compared with about 2.96m in the same month last year, a drop of 5.6%.
However, it may be a sign of the times that budget airline Ryanair flew more than 5m passengers last month, 20% more than the same time last year, although it didn’t fill its planes quite as efficiently. Passenger numbers jumped to 5.23m in September, up from 4.35m in 2007, taking the total number of passengers flown during the 12 months to 56m.
However, it may be a sign of the times that budget airline Ryanair flew more than 5m passengers last month, 20% more than the same time last year, although it didn’t fill its planes quite as efficiently. Passenger numbers jumped to 5.23m in September, up from 4.35m in 2007, taking the total number of passengers flown during the 12 months to 56m.
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The way I see it, by 2011 the world will be a different place, financially at least. Preparing for that is the key to steal a march on fellow competitors. The current woes should all be behind us, or at least I hope so, and the rebuilding will have begun.
So when we emerge from our fallout bunkers what will we see? Fewer airlines, less banks, less training organisations, more regulation (on borrowing/finances). Less of everything really, all the excess fat cut away, leaving a lean machine.
So when we emerge from our fallout bunkers what will we see? Fewer airlines, less banks, less training organisations, more regulation (on borrowing/finances). Less of everything really, all the excess fat cut away, leaving a lean machine.
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Fewer airlines, less banks, less training organisations, more regulation (on borrowing/finances). Less of everything really, all the excess fat cut away, leaving a lean machine.
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I tend to agree with you.
Maybe the pay checks wont be so fat, have to wait a little longer for that new car, plasma screen telly, make the old computer last a little longer. Maybe the quality of life will be better, jobs returning and people understanding the value of things, rather than the cost.
Hopefully by then, I might have gone commercial with my brewing activities. At least that way, if my vision of the future goes all wobbly, ppruners can get pissed on my value for money ale.
Maybe the pay checks wont be so fat, have to wait a little longer for that new car, plasma screen telly, make the old computer last a little longer. Maybe the quality of life will be better, jobs returning and people understanding the value of things, rather than the cost.
Hopefully by then, I might have gone commercial with my brewing activities. At least that way, if my vision of the future goes all wobbly, ppruners can get pissed on my value for money ale.
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Hopefully by then, I might have gone commercial with my brewing activities. At least that way, if my vision of the future goes all wobbly, ppruners can get pissed on my value for money ale.
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Spinnaker
I have friends in Warwickshire that say things like good restaurants are noticeably quieter, they feel an overall tightening of the belts is going on.
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ChrisLKKB
I hope I've played this one correct. I have access to a ready supply of last years hops of the correct quality. There should be enough to last me beyond next years harvest. Even if the price increases, which is a certainty, the proportion used should not be too dramatic on the overall cost of a pint. Grain on the other hand is a different story. Not all the numbers are in yet, but its not looking good for both yields and quality, so I've hedged my wheat and barley for the next two years. Barley is the most expensive component of beer. So what I propose to do is subtract what I need for the ale, and the surplus grain goes one of two ways. If the price falls bellow my benchmark, the grain is processed to enhance the value and sold on. If the price falls bellow 10% off the benchmark, I increase the head of sheep and feed it to them in winter then sell as soon as the meat market is correct, that way I preserve the value. Its known as a 'Flying Flock'. If the price increases, much more likely, I can then sell the grain on, as is, and not buy sheep. With the vacant grazing, I can now trade that for more grain above that already hedged.
So fellow ppruners, you beer is safe with me.
I hope I've played this one correct. I have access to a ready supply of last years hops of the correct quality. There should be enough to last me beyond next years harvest. Even if the price increases, which is a certainty, the proportion used should not be too dramatic on the overall cost of a pint. Grain on the other hand is a different story. Not all the numbers are in yet, but its not looking good for both yields and quality, so I've hedged my wheat and barley for the next two years. Barley is the most expensive component of beer. So what I propose to do is subtract what I need for the ale, and the surplus grain goes one of two ways. If the price falls bellow my benchmark, the grain is processed to enhance the value and sold on. If the price falls bellow 10% off the benchmark, I increase the head of sheep and feed it to them in winter then sell as soon as the meat market is correct, that way I preserve the value. Its known as a 'Flying Flock'. If the price increases, much more likely, I can then sell the grain on, as is, and not buy sheep. With the vacant grazing, I can now trade that for more grain above that already hedged.
So fellow ppruners, you beer is safe with me.
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again to my favorite financial pundits
chrislkkb/www
tell me what are our two experts going to do in the intervening couple of years during the crash and economic crisis when the financial world comes to an end. Hopefully get a life and maybe a job and indulge in a bit of reality top tip try journalism!!!
chrislkkb/www
tell me what are our two experts going to do in the intervening couple of years during the crash and economic crisis when the financial world comes to an end. Hopefully get a life and maybe a job and indulge in a bit of reality
top tip try journalism!!!
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Spinnaker. The crisis I was refering to was one of supply with at least one distributer refusing to take on new customers. If you have a supplier for hops that you're ok with then i'm sure you're all set, they can't increase in price anymore (I hope) they've already doubled and in some cases trebled in price some time back.
It's expected that the acerage devoted to hops will be increased over the next 3 years so prices should stabalise (it's probably too much to expect them to come down in price) and as long as mother nature plays ball the shortage will soon be over.
Smith.
Gordon Ramsey was also saying on the radio that takings in his restaurants were down so perhaps Warwickshire isn't such a bad barometer of public spending.
It's expected that the acerage devoted to hops will be increased over the next 3 years so prices should stabalise (it's probably too much to expect them to come down in price) and as long as mother nature plays ball the shortage will soon be over.
Smith.
Aah good old Warwickshire, the world's economic temperature probe. Don't tell them in Wall St that the good restaurants in Warwickshire ars noticceably quieter. The ripple effect could be disasterous for the markets and the world economy as a whole!
Last edited by ChrisLKKB; 4th Oct 2008 at 23:16.
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Originally Posted by biaeghh
chrislkkb/www
tell me what are our two experts going to do in the intervening couple of years during the crash and economic crisis when the financial world comes to an end.
tell me what are our two experts going to do in the intervening couple of years during the crash and economic crisis when the financial world comes to an end.
Originally Posted by ChrisLKKB
We are undoubtably going to be faced with 'a world of pain' but the world wont come to an end.
It seems like some people don't even want to hear good news when it's handed to them on a plate
If you're looking for a second career i'd give the job of proof reader a miss. 
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ChrisLKKB
I wasn't aware of distributors not taking new customers, but then I've been using the same guys for some time now. The price is an interesting one. If people stop going to the pub, hop usage might even fall. But then again, people might turn to the bottle even more, recessions do funny things to folk.
I wasn't aware of distributors not taking new customers, but then I've been using the same guys for some time now. The price is an interesting one. If people stop going to the pub, hop usage might even fall. But then again, people might turn to the bottle even more, recessions do funny things to folk.
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Charles Faram stopped a little while back, I suspect others have too. If you get stuck pm me, I know someone who i'm sure could help you out.
(sorry mods couldn't pm this, that's the last on beer form me)
(sorry mods couldn't pm this, that's the last on beer form me)
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You raise an interesting point about the LTV. Correct me if I'm wrong. But as your house goes down in value, your interest rate increases if you re-mortgage?
That's the problem. You might be alright. The stupidly over leveraged fellow customers you are now losing their jobs are dragging you down.
Its unlikely anyone who bought in the last 2 years will have their interest rate double at the end of their intro rate. If they can't get a new one due to -ve equity, even their SVR will only be a couple of points higher than the intro rate. Thus they should be able to cover it. If they bought more than 4 years ago they should have sufficient equity to absorb the drops...
The '90 is mentioned often on here, did the lights go out? No, did the world stop spinning, No. Did things recover, Yes. Did some people lose out, absolutely, and them they had the chance to recover too.
iX
Last edited by ix_touring; 5th Oct 2008 at 09:57. Reason: spelling