Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
I think the media have and continue to underplay this crisis.
Go back to Sept '07. I was being derided here for saying that I had sold my house because housing was going to crash and there was going to be a mjor recession at least as big as 1991. But this was simply a view taken by numerous economists such as Nuriel Roubini and was a common view on the finance versions of PPRuNe..
Yet at that time the media was full of Slowdown. Dip. Soft Landing. Doom Mongers. Best Placed. Short Recession.
BULL****.
I and many others were looking at the raw data and TELLING people that a Depression was likely and if we were lucky a sharp, deep, decade long recession would be a lucky escape.
People blaming the media for this slump deserve pity. To quote the 16th President of the USA"
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ps That was Abraham Lincoln BTW.
Go back to Sept '07. I was being derided here for saying that I had sold my house because housing was going to crash and there was going to be a mjor recession at least as big as 1991. But this was simply a view taken by numerous economists such as Nuriel Roubini and was a common view on the finance versions of PPRuNe..
Yet at that time the media was full of Slowdown. Dip. Soft Landing. Doom Mongers. Best Placed. Short Recession.
BULL****.
I and many others were looking at the raw data and TELLING people that a Depression was likely and if we were lucky a sharp, deep, decade long recession would be a lucky escape.
People blaming the media for this slump deserve pity. To quote the 16th President of the USA"
You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.
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ps That was Abraham Lincoln BTW.
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Is that not the whole point of the argument, The media underplays / overplays the situation, we all follow the merry go round.
When the media underplayed the situation a year ago we still felt pretty good and had x amount of pounds in our pockets, now the media are possibly overreacting, we feel bad but still have the same x amount of pounds in our pockets.
Lincoln was right, you can't fool all of the people all of the time but you only need to fool some of the people some of the time to succeed!
When the media underplayed the situation a year ago we still felt pretty good and had x amount of pounds in our pockets, now the media are possibly overreacting, we feel bad but still have the same x amount of pounds in our pockets.
Lincoln was right, you can't fool all of the people all of the time but you only need to fool some of the people some of the time to succeed!
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Dane-Ger,
The fundamental problem isn't that the media underplays or overplays, it is that the media doesn't have the foggiest idea what is happening now and attempts to convey the implications for the future in one of three ways: as an open question, results from a survey or in such vague terms a that even a Medium would be impressed.
Confidence has very little to do with it and is just a way of explaining away something that is tricky to comprehend. However, the lack of money in the system does have everything to do with it.
People spend when they have disposable income. People have disposable income mainly for three reasons: excess earnings, loans or they receive a windfall. People who save, by definition generally don't spend those savings frivolously. It isn't too great a leap to conceive that the majority of disposable income is from excess earnings and debt. It isn't a catch 22 either, the economy is sinusoidal and arguably a divergent phugoid!
In basic terms there is a reducing amount of money because the banks cannot lend because they no longer have the required volume of liquid assets (for reasons not that well explained). Therefore business cannot borrow, therefore they cannot pay people, therefore people cannot earn, therefore they cannot repay their debt, therefore the banks have less money to lend and round it goes until the debt is written off such that the amount of debt is less than the money in the system. It is a known that in a growing economy, the amount of debt plus interest is more than the amount of money available to repay that debt. That being the case only an expanding economy can maintain the status quo. If the economy slows it's rate of growth some kind of downturn is virtually inevitable.
Generally recession plus the following boom is greater than pre-recession economy so people over the decades remain better off overall - the divergent phugoid. It wouldn't bee too great a leap to suggest that recessions are essential tools for long term sustainable growth with well managed booms. But also common sense says nothing is infinite and nobody can comprehend the limits and so nobody can say when we get a recession so deep that takes us back decades rather than just a a year or so.
In a nutshell, the greater the gulf between debt and money available to repay that debt, the deeper and the longer the recession. Nobody really knows the true extent of the problem. The data says that the UK in particular has been artificially sustaining its boom. Regardless, most can guess that there is an awful lot of debt out there...
How people feel about this is irrelevant.
The fundamental problem isn't that the media underplays or overplays, it is that the media doesn't have the foggiest idea what is happening now and attempts to convey the implications for the future in one of three ways: as an open question, results from a survey or in such vague terms a that even a Medium would be impressed.
It seems rather catch 22 to me, less confidence, less spending, less jobs.
People spend when they have disposable income. People have disposable income mainly for three reasons: excess earnings, loans or they receive a windfall. People who save, by definition generally don't spend those savings frivolously. It isn't too great a leap to conceive that the majority of disposable income is from excess earnings and debt. It isn't a catch 22 either, the economy is sinusoidal and arguably a divergent phugoid!
In basic terms there is a reducing amount of money because the banks cannot lend because they no longer have the required volume of liquid assets (for reasons not that well explained). Therefore business cannot borrow, therefore they cannot pay people, therefore people cannot earn, therefore they cannot repay their debt, therefore the banks have less money to lend and round it goes until the debt is written off such that the amount of debt is less than the money in the system. It is a known that in a growing economy, the amount of debt plus interest is more than the amount of money available to repay that debt. That being the case only an expanding economy can maintain the status quo. If the economy slows it's rate of growth some kind of downturn is virtually inevitable.
Generally recession plus the following boom is greater than pre-recession economy so people over the decades remain better off overall - the divergent phugoid. It wouldn't bee too great a leap to suggest that recessions are essential tools for long term sustainable growth with well managed booms. But also common sense says nothing is infinite and nobody can comprehend the limits and so nobody can say when we get a recession so deep that takes us back decades rather than just a a year or so.
In a nutshell, the greater the gulf between debt and money available to repay that debt, the deeper and the longer the recession. Nobody really knows the true extent of the problem. The data says that the UK in particular has been artificially sustaining its boom. Regardless, most can guess that there is an awful lot of debt out there...
How people feel about this is irrelevant.
Thank you very much for that. Most well written and accurate.
WWW
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"Confidence has very little to do with it"......Total rubbish!
People aren't spending their additional disposable income because they're unsure of what's going to happen in the coming months. It's a viscious downward spiral....people are worried so rather than spending their additional disposable income they build up a little nest egg for a rainy day..... this leads to a lack of working capital and fall in profits on the highstreet.....the media grab the bad news like vultures as another high profile retailer goes tits up or reports a drop in quarterly profits....people see this on the news, lose confidence and think it would be a good idea to save a bit for a rainy day....and the sprial continues downwards.
If confidence had nothing to do with it why would firms like First Choice and Thomas Cook be including the "Protected by ATOL" phrase in all of their adverts now??? Because consumer confidence was seriously knocked by the XL situation. They need to instill this back in their customers to spend on their hols without living in fear that their hard earned money will be lost if the tour operator goes belly up.
I've worked for a retail company and consumer confidence is HUGE! Our industry is massively affected by this in particular. Look at post 9/11.....people lost confidence in the fact that that they would arrive at their destinations safely so they stopped flying. This time they're rightly worried about losing their hard earned dosh.
WWW and SCS have both made some interesting points but I can't accept that consumer confidence has nothing to do with the economy. Just not true.
Have a good weekend all!
FS
People aren't spending their additional disposable income because they're unsure of what's going to happen in the coming months. It's a viscious downward spiral....people are worried so rather than spending their additional disposable income they build up a little nest egg for a rainy day..... this leads to a lack of working capital and fall in profits on the highstreet.....the media grab the bad news like vultures as another high profile retailer goes tits up or reports a drop in quarterly profits....people see this on the news, lose confidence and think it would be a good idea to save a bit for a rainy day....and the sprial continues downwards.
If confidence had nothing to do with it why would firms like First Choice and Thomas Cook be including the "Protected by ATOL" phrase in all of their adverts now??? Because consumer confidence was seriously knocked by the XL situation. They need to instill this back in their customers to spend on their hols without living in fear that their hard earned money will be lost if the tour operator goes belly up.
I've worked for a retail company and consumer confidence is HUGE! Our industry is massively affected by this in particular. Look at post 9/11.....people lost confidence in the fact that that they would arrive at their destinations safely so they stopped flying. This time they're rightly worried about losing their hard earned dosh.
WWW and SCS have both made some interesting points but I can't accept that consumer confidence has nothing to do with the economy. Just not true.
Have a good weekend all!
FS
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Confidence
It may not have been the cause of it, but IMO it certainly exacerbates the problem.
The media need to fill their 24hr schedules so debate and dissect ad nauseum. The media didn't cause the problem, I don't think anyone has said that. The media's need to constantly fill airtime is depressing many people and stopping people who have disposable income from spending it. Now these people may have needed a reality check, but it has got to the point where I no longer want to watch the news etc. I am not burying my head in the sand either.
I went skiing last weekend and there were some big hitters in the group and they felt the same. There comes a time when the media stop reporting on the news and become the news. They need a new story, which may be a war according to some.
I've recently purchased a new car for cash and my house extension started last Tuesday. I am in a minority in that I am spending decent sized money at the moment. I also view this as a fantastic opportunity to invest in selected shares via my SIPP, plus I am long on oil and gold.
Refinancing of existing debt is one thing, but even if credit was available at previous levels, I don't believe that the public has the appetite for taking on more debt at the moment.
It has almost become trendy to be frugal
The media need to fill their 24hr schedules so debate and dissect ad nauseum. The media didn't cause the problem, I don't think anyone has said that. The media's need to constantly fill airtime is depressing many people and stopping people who have disposable income from spending it. Now these people may have needed a reality check, but it has got to the point where I no longer want to watch the news etc. I am not burying my head in the sand either.
I went skiing last weekend and there were some big hitters in the group and they felt the same. There comes a time when the media stop reporting on the news and become the news. They need a new story, which may be a war according to some.
I've recently purchased a new car for cash and my house extension started last Tuesday. I am in a minority in that I am spending decent sized money at the moment. I also view this as a fantastic opportunity to invest in selected shares via my SIPP, plus I am long on oil and gold.
Refinancing of existing debt is one thing, but even if credit was available at previous levels, I don't believe that the public has the appetite for taking on more debt at the moment.
It has almost become trendy to be frugal
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How many times have we seen stories in the media about aviation-related issues or incidents - and seen how many times the media have either got it totally wrong, over-sensationalised it, or more importantly, misconstrued key facts of importance?
(I really should source a couple of articles to back up this statement - shouldn't be too hard)
It wouldn't be a bad assumption to believe that this quality of reporting is repeated across all sectors - including financial.
Take the media with a pinch of salt.
(I really should source a couple of articles to back up this statement - shouldn't be too hard)
It wouldn't be a bad assumption to believe that this quality of reporting is repeated across all sectors - including financial.
Take the media with a pinch of salt.
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Yep
I was going to say the same thing but forgot
Peston is being briefed all the time so listening to him is a great way of being prewarned on future GOVT thinking/policy.
Most people in most jobs are fairly mediocre - sweeping generalisation I know but it probably has an element of truth. Can't see why bankers, journalists, economists or politicians should be any different.
Peston is being briefed all the time so listening to him is a great way of being prewarned on future GOVT thinking/policy.
Most people in most jobs are fairly mediocre - sweeping generalisation I know but it probably has an element of truth. Can't see why bankers, journalists, economists or politicians should be any different.
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The majority of people are not educated in debt or money management. It's one of the most important skills you need in life but it's not taught in schools. No wonder some people got into so much debt and mortgaged to the hilt. These unfortunate souls are now learning a very painful and harsh lesson very quickly.
Borrowing limits should have been set more rigidly. How many of us have heard from our credit card companies about our limits being increased without us asking for them?
House prices should have been taken into account years ago when the Bank of England was looking to manage inflation. Calculating inflation based on a basket of groceries was daft when house prices were soaring at rates comparable to inflation in Zimbabwe.
Part of this recession is a confidence issue in us all. No one can predict a clear way out or how long it will last. But no one predicted us getting into such a mess. At some point things will move on. In the meantime we're lobbing everything at the mortgage to get rid of it so we'll be better of in 6, no 5, now it's 4 years time. Rate cuts have meant the payments have gone through the floor which is a great opportunity to pay off the mortgage early.
So we're not doing what the government wants and splashing out on new things - we're, er, in a strange kind of way helping to refinance a big and stupid Edinburgh based British Bank that has enormous amounts of debt and problems of its own.
Borrowing limits should have been set more rigidly. How many of us have heard from our credit card companies about our limits being increased without us asking for them?
House prices should have been taken into account years ago when the Bank of England was looking to manage inflation. Calculating inflation based on a basket of groceries was daft when house prices were soaring at rates comparable to inflation in Zimbabwe.
Part of this recession is a confidence issue in us all. No one can predict a clear way out or how long it will last. But no one predicted us getting into such a mess. At some point things will move on. In the meantime we're lobbing everything at the mortgage to get rid of it so we'll be better of in 6, no 5, now it's 4 years time. Rate cuts have meant the payments have gone through the floor which is a great opportunity to pay off the mortgage early.
So we're not doing what the government wants and splashing out on new things - we're, er, in a strange kind of way helping to refinance a big and stupid Edinburgh based British Bank that has enormous amounts of debt and problems of its own.
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Take the media with a pinch of salt.
I always take a cynical view of what I hear reported and try see through the angles and spins they put on otherwise mundane items.
In the UK in 2006 £19 BILLION was MEW'd (mortgage equity withdrawel) into the consumer spending economy.
Then house prices started falling so that tap was abruptly turned off.
This caused a recession.
This has happened before. This was predicted to happen again if you read the correct websites and journals. Pretending it is all fantastically complicated and too difficult to understand is just a tactic of the finance industry and the government.
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Then house prices started falling so that tap was abruptly turned off.
This caused a recession.
This has happened before. This was predicted to happen again if you read the correct websites and journals. Pretending it is all fantastically complicated and too difficult to understand is just a tactic of the finance industry and the government.
WWW
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Flying Squid,
I agree that taking confidence, as a significant driver of the economy, out of the equation does seem to defy common sense. But then so did aiming for the ground during stalls during my first trial flight. I could sidestep and re-define confidence, but I think we agree that in this context we are just talking about our perception of the public's mood. I would argue that that perception is the really media's perception. We have no way of knowing what people think other than those we have regular contact with. All we know is that he's called the Stig, errm I mean that people are not spending. I simply believe that they are not spending because there is less money in the system. You can look at an individual as say he still has his job and his mortgage is lower. But to understand what is going on we must really think simply in the macro terms of money supply. Little else is relevant to understand why the retail and services sectors are suffering.
Because I think that is about confidence in a specific product. If they put that in their adverts then customers will feel more confident about booking with them rather than somebody who hasn't chosen to advertise as such. I don't think that is overly relevant to confidence vs the recession though.
An interesting point. The media predicted recession post 9/11 didn't happen. As an aside I just looked up the CAA's statistics for passengers during leading up to and after 9/11 and it appears that people didn't stop flying. However, there was a slowdown in the growth of number of passengers:
1999: 93,407,000
2000: 100,169,000
2001: 100,414,000
2002: 101,448,000
2003: 104,752,000
I concede that clearly the rate of growth slowed considerably which can reasonably be attributed to confidence in flying as they were still spending their money, just elsewhere. Therefore, I don't necessarily agree that the concept of confidence is relevant to the economy as a whole.
My reasoning is that if people behaved liked that then they wouldn't have built up so much debt in the first place.
I agree that taking confidence, as a significant driver of the economy, out of the equation does seem to defy common sense. But then so did aiming for the ground during stalls during my first trial flight. I could sidestep and re-define confidence, but I think we agree that in this context we are just talking about our perception of the public's mood. I would argue that that perception is the really media's perception. We have no way of knowing what people think other than those we have regular contact with. All we know is that he's called the Stig, errm I mean that people are not spending. I simply believe that they are not spending because there is less money in the system. You can look at an individual as say he still has his job and his mortgage is lower. But to understand what is going on we must really think simply in the macro terms of money supply. Little else is relevant to understand why the retail and services sectors are suffering.
If confidence had nothing to do with it why would firms like First Choice and Thomas Cook be including the "Protected by ATOL" phrase in all of their adverts now???
post 9/11.....people lost confidence in the fact that that they would arrive at their destinations safely so they stopped flying.
1999: 93,407,000
2000: 100,169,000
2001: 100,414,000
2002: 101,448,000
2003: 104,752,000
I concede that clearly the rate of growth slowed considerably which can reasonably be attributed to confidence in flying as they were still spending their money, just elsewhere. Therefore, I don't necessarily agree that the concept of confidence is relevant to the economy as a whole.
people are worried so rather than spending their additional disposable income they build up a little nest egg for a rainy day
Last edited by Sciolistes; 1st Feb 2009 at 02:16.
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Sciolistes.....
Some good points well made chap.
IMO I think people are building up a little nest egg to fall back on where as they may have not even considered it before and continued plunging themselves into debt, as you rightly point out. However I think the last 6 months has been a real shock to the system. Maybe a big enough shock to change people's behaviour towards disposable dosh altogther. Who knows.
As for the CAA stats regarding pax numbers before and after 9/11.....I too came across these whilst doing some research on the industry before I took the leap and started training. Sorry, my previous comment was a tad unclear, I meant that pax growth stopped growing rather than people stopped flying altogether. I was really surprised when I found those stats initially but less so after considering how important international aviation has become over the last few decades.
Is there really less money in the system...or is there just as much or possibly more than ever but it's not circulating with the fludity that it should be??? I'm no economist and if the top dogs of the economic world can't agree on this then I'm certainly not going to try.
Some good points well made chap.
IMO I think people are building up a little nest egg to fall back on where as they may have not even considered it before and continued plunging themselves into debt, as you rightly point out. However I think the last 6 months has been a real shock to the system. Maybe a big enough shock to change people's behaviour towards disposable dosh altogther. Who knows.
As for the CAA stats regarding pax numbers before and after 9/11.....I too came across these whilst doing some research on the industry before I took the leap and started training. Sorry, my previous comment was a tad unclear, I meant that pax growth stopped growing rather than people stopped flying altogether. I was really surprised when I found those stats initially but less so after considering how important international aviation has become over the last few decades.
Is there really less money in the system...or is there just as much or possibly more than ever but it's not circulating with the fludity that it should be??? I'm no economist and if the top dogs of the economic world can't agree on this then I'm certainly not going to try.
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No-one posted this so here goes... House Prices up 1.9% in January. Yes, I accept that one swallow does not make a summer.
and, as far as the airlines go, Easyjet's January figures show an increase in passenger numbers but a decline in the load factor and Ryanair's figures show yet another two digit growth in passenger numbers with a steady load factor, but lower than Easyjet's.
and, as far as the airlines go, Easyjet's January figures show an increase in passenger numbers but a decline in the load factor and Ryanair's figures show yet another two digit growth in passenger numbers with a steady load factor, but lower than Easyjet's.
I note that most of the major lenders also in the month that Halifax said they went up (Nationwide said they went down) [both use seasonal adjustment] the major lenders decreased their LTV % requirements. All the good products now require AT LEAST a 15% deposit.
That'll be because the banks expect house prices to fall by AT LEAST 15% still. If you're in negative equity then suddenly you've grabbed the gun from them and put it against their head.. Which they like less.
No arguing with the airline figures though. SAS laying off 3,000 staff, BMI breaking their pay agreement, Ryanair banning summer leave, easyJet not recruiting any full time pilots at all etc. etc.
We've only had the early tremours at this point. The main quake comes next winter.
WWW
That'll be because the banks expect house prices to fall by AT LEAST 15% still. If you're in negative equity then suddenly you've grabbed the gun from them and put it against their head.. Which they like less.
No arguing with the airline figures though. SAS laying off 3,000 staff, BMI breaking their pay agreement, Ryanair banning summer leave, easyJet not recruiting any full time pilots at all etc. etc.
We've only had the early tremours at this point. The main quake comes next winter.
WWW
The fact remains that Joe Bloggs on Basildon High Street has no interest in macro economics; all he knows is what the Media tells him. His world revolves around what he sees written in The Sun Newspaper. When gets home he finds his wife watching Emmerendersoakdalestreet on the TV. She has become so attuned to the behaviour exhibited on those programmes that her attitudes have morphed into those exhibited by the extreme characters she sees before her. The family sit around the TV and perhaps watch the News. All they see is doom and gloom because that's all the Media care to report. The Bloggs family get depressed and quickly turn over to watch the start of yet another 'Reality' TV Show.
Everything Joe Bloggs and his family see around them is therefore sensationalist; from the newspapers all the way through to the chap on Coronation Street whose banging his daughter's best mate, while conning someone else out of their inheritance, while doing an insurance scam to pay for his crack habit. This is the world of Joe Bloggs...
It may sound funny when put like this, but there is far too much truth in this generalisation for my liking. Sure, the people reading this forum generally don't fill into the Joe Bloggs stereotype. But Ladies and Gentleman, we are the minority. Any even we are affected by the prevailing attitude put forward by the Media and Television Companies. Let's face it, how do we know what's going on in the next town, let alone on the other side of the World, or in some random Film Star's closet, unless it is presented to us as 'fact' by the Media? I don't think there's a big conspiracy but it is quite obvious that it has become the norm to exaggerate and sensationalise every aspect of modern life. You cannot convince me that this doesn't colour everyone's opinions and outlook.
And please don't tell me this recession just happened or that I am to blame because I borrowed money to buy a car. It happened because those in Government and in Banking made greedy decisions. The Media, who care deeply about reporting the truth [pause for effect], have told Joe Bloggs that his world is coming to an end. He's got no reason to disbelieve them because it's on every TV channel and in every Newspaper - even The Sun.
I mean, honestly, if we keep being told that house prices are going to fall by another 15%, that's exactly what will happen - so much of what we hear about the economy is a self-fulfilling prophecy! Tell people it's all over and they'll believe you after awhile. But good news is ignored and only bad news is reported. The downward spiral continues...And in the meantime, Joe Bloggs stops spending his money and cancels his holiday...and everything gets worse.
IMHO the only genuine crisis to hit the world economy over the past year was when OPEC decided to turn off the taps and limit oil supply. That had a knock on effect on everyone. But the credit crunch and the house price crash is simply the unveiling of a huge Government-sponsored scam.
Everything Joe Bloggs and his family see around them is therefore sensationalist; from the newspapers all the way through to the chap on Coronation Street whose banging his daughter's best mate, while conning someone else out of their inheritance, while doing an insurance scam to pay for his crack habit. This is the world of Joe Bloggs...
It may sound funny when put like this, but there is far too much truth in this generalisation for my liking. Sure, the people reading this forum generally don't fill into the Joe Bloggs stereotype. But Ladies and Gentleman, we are the minority. Any even we are affected by the prevailing attitude put forward by the Media and Television Companies. Let's face it, how do we know what's going on in the next town, let alone on the other side of the World, or in some random Film Star's closet, unless it is presented to us as 'fact' by the Media? I don't think there's a big conspiracy but it is quite obvious that it has become the norm to exaggerate and sensationalise every aspect of modern life. You cannot convince me that this doesn't colour everyone's opinions and outlook.
And please don't tell me this recession just happened or that I am to blame because I borrowed money to buy a car. It happened because those in Government and in Banking made greedy decisions. The Media, who care deeply about reporting the truth [pause for effect], have told Joe Bloggs that his world is coming to an end. He's got no reason to disbelieve them because it's on every TV channel and in every Newspaper - even The Sun.
I mean, honestly, if we keep being told that house prices are going to fall by another 15%, that's exactly what will happen - so much of what we hear about the economy is a self-fulfilling prophecy! Tell people it's all over and they'll believe you after awhile. But good news is ignored and only bad news is reported. The downward spiral continues...And in the meantime, Joe Bloggs stops spending his money and cancels his holiday...and everything gets worse.
IMHO the only genuine crisis to hit the world economy over the past year was when OPEC decided to turn off the taps and limit oil supply. That had a knock on effect on everyone. But the credit crunch and the house price crash is simply the unveiling of a huge Government-sponsored scam.
No. You can't have that.
The argument that the media is causing and perpetuating the crisis is correct. To a point. A small and rather short point.
What is far more important to understand is the unprecedented-in-the-whole-of-human-history debt bubble. It has been built over the last decade. It was unsustainable and its collapse is now upon us. The result of the collapse is a sharp fall in wealth and a sharp rise in unemployment. This change is irreversible because it is a correction.
Politicians and others pretend that it is a problem. Problems can be solved if the correct actions are taken. But this isn't a problem. Its a correction to a debt problem that we already had.
As a rough analogy off the top of my head (therefore unlikely to be a good one) the West is like an alcoholic who has had his vodka taken off him. He is struggling, hunting, to find more as he thinks that the lack of booze is a problem. It isn't. Withdrawal of booze is the solution to the problem of alcoholism. But the drunk finds it painful.
The West is the drunkard and the drug is debt.
The lifestyle enjoyed by many that this debt funded has gone and isn't coming back. There's a few billion hard working Chinese and Indian people, many of whom have excellent educations, who want to buy some of the limited worlds resources. The fat arsed, ignorant and lazy West is going to have to learn to live on less.
All of which aggregates to bad bad news for Western Wannabes and Airline Pilots but good news for Indian and Chinese ones.
How's your Mandarin?
WWW
The argument that the media is causing and perpetuating the crisis is correct. To a point. A small and rather short point.
What is far more important to understand is the unprecedented-in-the-whole-of-human-history debt bubble. It has been built over the last decade. It was unsustainable and its collapse is now upon us. The result of the collapse is a sharp fall in wealth and a sharp rise in unemployment. This change is irreversible because it is a correction.
Politicians and others pretend that it is a problem. Problems can be solved if the correct actions are taken. But this isn't a problem. Its a correction to a debt problem that we already had.
As a rough analogy off the top of my head (therefore unlikely to be a good one) the West is like an alcoholic who has had his vodka taken off him. He is struggling, hunting, to find more as he thinks that the lack of booze is a problem. It isn't. Withdrawal of booze is the solution to the problem of alcoholism. But the drunk finds it painful.
The West is the drunkard and the drug is debt.
The lifestyle enjoyed by many that this debt funded has gone and isn't coming back. There's a few billion hard working Chinese and Indian people, many of whom have excellent educations, who want to buy some of the limited worlds resources. The fat arsed, ignorant and lazy West is going to have to learn to live on less.
All of which aggregates to bad bad news for Western Wannabes and Airline Pilots but good news for Indian and Chinese ones.
How's your Mandarin?
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And to copy Alex with more good news...
The beach seems to be Britains cure for the crisis...
TUI Travel Plc (First Choice/Thomson) have reported a 20% increase in all-inclusive packages and despite a "flatter booking profile" (corporate speak for something!) people are still booking holidays and full year trading is expected to meet expectations...
The Balerics, Greece, Turkey, Mexico and Egypt are the popular places...
A charter holiday is costing 11% more than last year with a 10% cut in capacity...
Good for those of us employed but don't expect recruitment just yet...
TUI Travel Plc (First Choice/Thomson) have reported a 20% increase in all-inclusive packages and despite a "flatter booking profile" (corporate speak for something!) people are still booking holidays and full year trading is expected to meet expectations...
The Balerics, Greece, Turkey, Mexico and Egypt are the popular places...
A charter holiday is costing 11% more than last year with a 10% cut in capacity...
Good for those of us employed but don't expect recruitment just yet...
What is far more important to understand is the unprecedented-in-the-whole-of-human-history debt bubble. It has been built over the last decade.
this isn't a problem. Its a correction to a debt problem that we already had