Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
The only thing to look forward to is decades of higher taxes and lower growth as a result of this epic public 'spending'.
What will happen is what has to happen. Which is house prices must come down; the banks' assets must be repriced; insolvent banks must be closed; interest rates must encourage saving; consumers will have to stop borrowing to spend and everyone will have to start paying their debts.
Debt deflation is where we are headed rather than hyper inflation.
It will be economically painful but the sun still shines.
WWW
ps I have lot of sympathy for this hilarious view:
BANKS TO LEND YOU YOUR OWN MONEY - The Daily Mash
What will happen is what has to happen. Which is house prices must come down; the banks' assets must be repriced; insolvent banks must be closed; interest rates must encourage saving; consumers will have to stop borrowing to spend and everyone will have to start paying their debts.
Debt deflation is where we are headed rather than hyper inflation.
It will be economically painful but the sun still shines.
WWW
ps I have lot of sympathy for this hilarious view:
BANKS TO LEND YOU YOUR OWN MONEY - The Daily Mash
So my savings income is dropping then. Great. All sorted.
Japan took their Interest Rates to zero and it didn't help them either.
WWW
Japan took their Interest Rates to zero and it didn't help them either.
WWW
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Originally Posted by WWW
The only thing to look forward to is decades of higher taxes and lower growth as a result of this epic public 'spending'.
I'm not overly happy about the points 2 and 3 but on the whole your predictions below for the most part are worth celebrating alone!
Which is house prices must come down; the banks' assets must be repriced; insolvent banks must be closed; interest rates must encourage saving; consumers will have to stop borrowing to spend and everyone will have to start paying their debts.
No little black clouds for me. The suns out on my farm, the birds are singing and I'm just back from walking the dog in the beautiful woods and off now to do a quick whiz around Europe.
WWW
WWW
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www,
I bet your that grumpy bu**er that I meet everyday when im down the woods with my 2 dogs ...!!
But 'yes', the sun is shining today, the birds are singing, my mortgage rate has just come down again, my local garage is 25 pence a litre cheaper than 3 months ago....and I've just had positive news on the job front!
I bet your that grumpy bu**er that I meet everyday when im down the woods with my 2 dogs ...!!
But 'yes', the sun is shining today, the birds are singing, my mortgage rate has just come down again, my local garage is 25 pence a litre cheaper than 3 months ago....and I've just had positive news on the job front!
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Chris,
Well said and welcome back to the ratrace,
Well said and welcome back to the ratrace,
Long term I think we will come through the storm in pretty good shape as long as the government uses its recently purchased position wisely. We still have quite a long way to go though imo (exactly how far I don't no).
WWW is entitled to his own opinion (more than I am in the context of this board) and although I think he makes some good points I tend to go with the slightly more positive view of the senior fund managers and banking cheifs that things aren't quite as bad as some of the extremists would have us believe.
It's probably wise to brace for more shocks in the coming months and keep our fingers crossed that Anthony Boltons prediction is correct and that the (long road) to recovery starts with the banks.
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ChrisLKKB
I am referring to the massive amounts of money disappearing from global economies, the drop in oil and food prices and lack of credit, the fall in demand and output. I find the reason given by the Bank of England for cutting rates today interesting. It stated that today's cut was to achieve the 2% inflation target. The traditional solution to high inflation is to increase interest rates, but that is not the case. I'm not disagreeing with the cuts, just querying the reason given. Inflation is not, as I see it, the problem, nor did it get us into this mess. Deflation on the other hand could be devastating, with an ever downward spiral. The classic remedy for deflation, although short term, is to cut bank rates, which is what they did today. Maybe I am premature with this call, but I feel that if the bottom isn't reached soon with the financial markets, deflation could be the new enemy during 2009.
I am referring to the massive amounts of money disappearing from global economies, the drop in oil and food prices and lack of credit, the fall in demand and output. I find the reason given by the Bank of England for cutting rates today interesting. It stated that today's cut was to achieve the 2% inflation target. The traditional solution to high inflation is to increase interest rates, but that is not the case. I'm not disagreeing with the cuts, just querying the reason given. Inflation is not, as I see it, the problem, nor did it get us into this mess. Deflation on the other hand could be devastating, with an ever downward spiral. The classic remedy for deflation, although short term, is to cut bank rates, which is what they did today. Maybe I am premature with this call, but I feel that if the bottom isn't reached soon with the financial markets, deflation could be the new enemy during 2009.
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Originally Posted by spinaker
The classic remedy for deflation, although short term, is to cut bank rates, which is what they did today. Maybe I am premature with this call, but I feel that if the bottom isn't reached soon with the financial markets, deflation could be the new enemy during 2009.
I wonder if short term investors drove RBS and HBOS up briefly with the sole intention of making a quick buck?
I hope we find the bottom very soon and you're wrong about 2009.
Originally Posted by topslide
Firstly, this government bank buyout with taxpayers money. It'll be obvious to some but definately not many that the money the government is using to do this will have to be borrowed as the public finances are up the swanny. That means higher taxes.
Last edited by ChrisLKKB; 8th Oct 2008 at 15:28.
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Originally Posted by ChrisLKKB
Or print more money (there must be a catch with that though) ??
Originally Posted by ChrisLKKB
Interesting RBS and HBOS have climbed a bit (16.00) where as Lloyds and Barclays have slumped, HSBC has remained compartively steady.
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The government themselves are in debt so its just a vicious circle. If it wasn't for the media peoples confidence in money and investment wouldnt have fallen, there wouldn't be a need for worry either. HBOS wouldn't have gone down until people started taking there savings.
Anyway, I'm not worried about this financial crisis, we have to get on with our lives. Fair enough we may lose a night out once/twice a month because of rising costs but its not too major. Im almost 19 and I'm going to Naples nexzt year to do Multiflights AB Intio, in 2-3 years when ive got a fATPL i have hope it will all be going uphill again.
I work at an airport at the mion and I speak to pilots on a daily basis, all have them say if you want it that badly you just go all in for it, they would go now with no holding back.
A ryanair pilot told me they need 300 new pilots next year and expect a 40% increase in the amount of pilots over the next 3 years, not sure how true that is but its very promising.
Keep the faith.
Anyway, I'm not worried about this financial crisis, we have to get on with our lives. Fair enough we may lose a night out once/twice a month because of rising costs but its not too major. Im almost 19 and I'm going to Naples nexzt year to do Multiflights AB Intio, in 2-3 years when ive got a fATPL i have hope it will all be going uphill again.
I work at an airport at the mion and I speak to pilots on a daily basis, all have them say if you want it that badly you just go all in for it, they would go now with no holding back.
A ryanair pilot told me they need 300 new pilots next year and expect a 40% increase in the amount of pilots over the next 3 years, not sure how true that is but its very promising.
Keep the faith.
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Originally Posted by benish
A ryanair pilot told me they need 300 new pilots next year and expect a 40% increase in the amount of pilots over the next 3 years, not sure how true that is but its very promising.
Last edited by spinnaker; 8th Oct 2008 at 17:17. Reason: Lost for words!
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I speak to pilots on a daily basis, all have them say if you want it that badly you just go all in for it, they would go now with no holding back.
Edited to say, had I of realised that was my 1000th post i'd would have put in more effort!
Last edited by JB007; 8th Oct 2008 at 17:16. Reason: My 1,000th...!!!!!
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Originally Posted by Spinaker
Also remember the rescue plan is against the interests of the shareholder
I''ll be interested to find out the exact details. I find it somewhat ironic that the government are going to punish those who invest their money in UK countries yet are happy to bail out those who invest their money overseas
Originally Posted by benish
Anyway, I'm not worried about this financial crisis, we have to get on with our lives. Fair enough we may lose a night out once/twice a month because of rising costs but its not too major.
iss. What do they teaching people at school these days
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Thanks for the advice, but the way I see this is that I can continue in work for 5 years ish, in a field that pays me about 1000 pounds a month, whilst trying to save for flying and (by the time im 20 ish) also have enough to be living with my partner and thinking about marriage and family. It just aint gonna happen on the wage im on. Ok i have a levels but no Uni degree. I want to work in an airport (on the crums it pays) and not behind a desk. So its go for it now and come out of debt sooner by hopefully getting a job within 5 years or stick it out on crums for wages for 5 years and wait 8 years before im an airline pilot. I already have about 2/5ths of the money needed to reaching this goal anyway so a loan wont be neccassary for about 2 years yet (just to let you know my picture).
Working alongside Jet2, and speaking to their ops and asking how its looking for jobs and them telling me that its going well, there expanding, alot of there elder pilots are moving on to larger airlines, we need men .... its not too bad.
I know i'm going to get the "go to Uni arguement", but why create more debt at this financial time of bleak? HBOS would not have gone down if its own customers had not have panicked. Fact. When you have a family member that works high up in the busines you find out one or two things.
Thats just my view.
I also think that people like your self, and others, continually telling us how bad this recession is are only making it worse. I have studied economics and consumer confidence goes a long way in casuing the problems we are having now.
Working alongside Jet2, and speaking to their ops and asking how its looking for jobs and them telling me that its going well, there expanding, alot of there elder pilots are moving on to larger airlines, we need men .... its not too bad.
I know i'm going to get the "go to Uni arguement", but why create more debt at this financial time of bleak? HBOS would not have gone down if its own customers had not have panicked. Fact. When you have a family member that works high up in the busines you find out one or two things.
Thats just my view.
I also think that people like your self, and others, continually telling us how bad this recession is are only making it worse. I have studied economics and consumer confidence goes a long way in casuing the problems we are having now.
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Originally Posted by benish
I also think that people like your self, and others, continually telling us how bad this recession is are only making it worse. I have studied economics and consumer confidence goes a long way in casuing the problems we are having now.
The report indicated that the squeeze on credit, as banks cut back on the amount they lend in order to repair their balance sheets, could endure until beyond 2010, implying that families will still be feeling the effects of the credit crunch far longer than most currently expect.
It said: "The deleveraging process may continue past the end of the decade. Bank balance sheets are under pressure to expand, as certain types of near-bank entities contract, fold, or are bought, and credit is re-intermediated, and as firms draw down pre-negotiated credit lines."
It said: "The deleveraging process may continue past the end of the decade. Bank balance sheets are under pressure to expand, as certain types of near-bank entities contract, fold, or are bought, and credit is re-intermediated, and as firms draw down pre-negotiated credit lines."
Of course if you'd listened to this Grumpy you'd have sold your house pre-crash, got out of Icesave in March, shorted the FTSE and the banks, planned for a major recession AND you'd still have enough left over for Cod n' Chips and your bus home. 
So listen to me now. This recession will last another 20 months and it hasn't really got going yet. There will be around 3 million unemployed. At least 2 of the top ten UK airlines will not survive ( I have no idea which two ). One of them will be in the top 5 in terms of size. In Europe things will be worse as there is less airline efficiency to start with.
DO NOT attain a JAA CPL IR Frzn ATPL and 200hrs in your logbook and expect to get a job for at least five years. FIVE.
Bailing out the banks is only the start of it. K-wave winter beckons.
WWW
So listen to me now. This recession will last another 20 months and it hasn't really got going yet. There will be around 3 million unemployed. At least 2 of the top ten UK airlines will not survive ( I have no idea which two ). One of them will be in the top 5 in terms of size. In Europe things will be worse as there is less airline efficiency to start with.
DO NOT attain a JAA CPL IR Frzn ATPL and 200hrs in your logbook and expect to get a job for at least five years. FIVE.
Bailing out the banks is only the start of it. K-wave winter beckons.
WWW