Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
From my reading, mainly of this thread and of news websites. It seems that WWW's view about it being a correction is fairly accurate, it is fairly obvious that people have been living above their means for a long time. Perhaps once this correction has taken place, people will be better off. Perhaps not richer, but with an idea on what is important in life. Money is nice, but you learn to live with less. Of course this will only last until the memory of this correction is long in the memory and a few greedy people start to think.... maybe instead of the downturn, we should refer to it as a correction. The Great Correction, as opposed to The Great Depression 
I do hope so. I think there's a chance that some people will stop coveting so many shiny new things and flash lifestyle accoutrements and start to appreciate the simpler, cheaper, better things in life.
Its true that so far the figures for Charter and LoCo seem to be holding up well. BA/BMI scheduled full service seem to be taking the pain but elsewhere things are holding up. This pleases me but I don't think it will last a full year.
WWW
(pleases me that the Charter and LoCo market is holding up - NOT that the Legacy market is suffering)
Its true that so far the figures for Charter and LoCo seem to be holding up well. BA/BMI scheduled full service seem to be taking the pain but elsewhere things are holding up. This pleases me but I don't think it will last a full year.
WWW
(pleases me that the Charter and LoCo market is holding up - NOT that the Legacy market is suffering)
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WWW,
Your post 1862 is spot on. Why can't the politicians get it and tell us this is what's going on?
I cut and pasted it and sent it to a friend whose firm manages what is left of £500 Billion of other people's money. This friend saw the drunken debt party, but didn't see the downfall of financial institutions coming. If experts like this didn't see it, how the heck can politicians hope to have enough sense to get us out of it?
Your post 1862 is spot on. Why can't the politicians get it and tell us this is what's going on?
I cut and pasted it and sent it to a friend whose firm manages what is left of £500 Billion of other people's money. This friend saw the drunken debt party, but didn't see the downfall of financial institutions coming. If experts like this didn't see it, how the heck can politicians hope to have enough sense to get us out of it?
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Nope. Different thread. Languishing further down the pages somewhere. This one was started as a bit of a jest initially, but could just as easily now be called "Downturn part deux."
Of course, like all other wannabes, I look forward to sustained postings of all things Upturn. Just not sure when I'll be breaking out the beers
Of course, like all other wannabes, I look forward to sustained postings of all things Upturn. Just not sure when I'll be breaking out the beers
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John-think it may be a while before breaking out the beers but have little doubt that those guys who have the right (and realistic) attitude will eventually get the jobs they want. I think the key is to be able to patiently hang in there while others fall by the wayside. Best regards, BK
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Quite...
Beers have a shelf life. Half decent plonk or booze, kept well, lasts a bit longer.
I might start an "upturn" cellar...
Regards.
JR
Beers have a shelf life. Half decent plonk or booze, kept well, lasts a bit longer.
I might start an "upturn" cellar...
Regards.
JR
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I saw something this weekend that I've never seen before. A container ship leaving Vancouver harbour only 20-30% full.
Vancouver harbour reportedly moves more freight than all the other west coast ports combined. Now, I know next to nothing about shipping, but I've never seen a ship sailing under the Lions Gate bridge with so few containers.
On another topic, the negative amortization mortgages which I mentioned a couple of months ago seem to be starting to rear their ugly head:
Vancouver harbour reportedly moves more freight than all the other west coast ports combined. Now, I know next to nothing about shipping, but I've never seen a ship sailing under the Lions Gate bridge with so few containers.
On another topic, the negative amortization mortgages which I mentioned a couple of months ago seem to be starting to rear their ugly head:
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There is no fundamental argument which stands up and challenges the notion of this present economic crises being in its simplest form, a ‘credit correction’. Nevertheless, I remain confident that we will witness a shift in economic climate during the latter end of this year 2009. I certainly expect Mortgage providers to loosen up capital to solid buyers, which in turn will improve national perception, thus increasing public confidence - Furthermore, I would argue a further 5-10% reduction in house price will see house prices achieve there lowest point before gradually improving - at the most, over the next 5 years I forecast a 7-10% increase. I suspect, the latter end of 2010 is where we would hope to feel the effects of the mild turn around.
The long run post WW2 average for house prices to earnings is 3.7 With the current 18% crash we're still at 5.
So what you have to ask yourself is do you think prices will return to the long term average, dip below or bottom above?
Hard as it is I have to think they'll dip below. Which means something like 3.5 which means the falls are not even half way through yet. This belief is perhaps reflected in the banks now only offering non-penalty rate mortgages on deals where the loan is equal or less than 75% of the properties value. They are factoring in another 25% fall.
It is only when one understands what has been typical over the last - say - 30 years that one can judge what normal looks like and what a recovery would resemble.
In the US the Case-Shiller continues to fall and fall hard. They entered their crash a full year before we did. I would not be suprised if our current 18% fall continued to 40% - 50%. A level that even uber-Bears like myself were not publicly talking about at the start of this crisis.
The whole of the Japanese economy is shrinking at over 9% per annum. Without doubt dozens of major airlines will be bust within a year.
WWW
So what you have to ask yourself is do you think prices will return to the long term average, dip below or bottom above?
Hard as it is I have to think they'll dip below. Which means something like 3.5 which means the falls are not even half way through yet. This belief is perhaps reflected in the banks now only offering non-penalty rate mortgages on deals where the loan is equal or less than 75% of the properties value. They are factoring in another 25% fall.
It is only when one understands what has been typical over the last - say - 30 years that one can judge what normal looks like and what a recovery would resemble.
In the US the Case-Shiller continues to fall and fall hard. They entered their crash a full year before we did. I would not be suprised if our current 18% fall continued to 40% - 50%. A level that even uber-Bears like myself were not publicly talking about at the start of this crisis.
The whole of the Japanese economy is shrinking at over 9% per annum. Without doubt dozens of major airlines will be bust within a year.
WWW
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I certainly expect Mortgage providers to loosen up capital to solid buyers, which in turn will improve national perception,
House prices will continue to fall loans will be difficult to find. The spread will increase.
15 months ago I got a personal loan for 7.9% when base rate was 5.5%
Today you can get for about 8.9% from the same provider with base rates at 1%. Thats a provider that did not
up as well.
It begins.
Ryanair to cut 200 jobs at Dublin Airport - The Irish Times - Thu, Feb 12, 2009
WWW
Ryanair to cut 200 jobs at Dublin Airport - The Irish Times - Thu, Feb 12, 2009
Ryanair said today it is to cut back its summer schedule, trim its Dublin fleet from 22 to 18 aircraft and shed 200 pilots, cabin crew and engineers. It predicted Dublin traffic will fall by 20 per cent from 10.8 million passengers to 8.7 million over the next year. The airline said it will announce further cuts in its Dublin winter schedule later.
WWW
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In fairness,the media LOVE THE HYPE thats why they sell newspapers and generate profits.cue 'SKY' no doubt to use the word 'AXE' every 5 mins!!
'AXE' sounds better then 'MOVED'.I presume These jobs arent gone as in redundancies.Much like shannon downsize these pilots,cabin crew and engineers will be springled around the other bases in europe,probably the new Italian ones.Yes its a pain in the hole to relocate if you have a family etc but i would guess they all still have jobs if willing to move
'AXE' sounds better then 'MOVED'.I presume These jobs arent gone as in redundancies.Much like shannon downsize these pilots,cabin crew and engineers will be springled around the other bases in europe,probably the new Italian ones.Yes its a pain in the hole to relocate if you have a family etc but i would guess they all still have jobs if willing to move
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WWW - bad news indeed.
Out of interest, does this not make a mockery of the FR selection process which is running full pelt in EMA?
Holding pool my arse.......
EK
Out of interest, does this not make a mockery of the FR selection process which is running full pelt in EMA?
Holding pool my arse.......
EK
Just apparently been announced 600 redundancies pilots, cabin crew, airport staff and engineers at Virgin Atlantic.
WWW
Link now available:
Virgin Atlantic to cut up to 600 jobs - Telegraph
WWW
Link now available:
Virgin Atlantic to cut up to 600 jobs - Telegraph