Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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My new gun cabinet is being delivered on Friday - is that too bearish dya' think?
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Oh come off it, you're making me feel old at the grand old age of forty!
Whatever age you are right now, I can probably guarantee you'll never see the likes of this economic crisis in your lifetime. The fact you point out jobs in supermarkets looking rosy, shows your complete ignorance of the facts before you. So the supermarkets are the saviours from the economic crisis? Makes me wonder why GB and AD spent billions of taxpayers money propping up the banks then? Our kids will be affected by this during their working lifetime I think.
Oh, hang on, so you can have thousands of checkout people in many new supermarkets. Great. I'm so glad the crisis is now over then. We obviously don't need manufacturng anymore as no-one is buying anything. We only need to be able to pop down to tescos/asda etc to get the shopping from now on and to hell with a stable economic climate.
Green transport? Come off it. We're years away from all driving eco cars. You'll still need the existing coal powered power stations to charge the batteries. No nuclear reactors on the horizon for a few years yet.
I'm considering myself one of the lucky ones with a flying job for now. Wonder how long it will last. Surely the gas in the North Sea will last another couple of years yet?
Whatever age you are right now, I can probably guarantee you'll never see the likes of this economic crisis in your lifetime. The fact you point out jobs in supermarkets looking rosy, shows your complete ignorance of the facts before you. So the supermarkets are the saviours from the economic crisis? Makes me wonder why GB and AD spent billions of taxpayers money propping up the banks then? Our kids will be affected by this during their working lifetime I think.
Oh, hang on, so you can have thousands of checkout people in many new supermarkets. Great. I'm so glad the crisis is now over then. We obviously don't need manufacturng anymore as no-one is buying anything. We only need to be able to pop down to tescos/asda etc to get the shopping from now on and to hell with a stable economic climate.
Green transport? Come off it. We're years away from all driving eco cars. You'll still need the existing coal powered power stations to charge the batteries. No nuclear reactors on the horizon for a few years yet.
I'm considering myself one of the lucky ones with a flying job for now. Wonder how long it will last. Surely the gas in the North Sea will last another couple of years yet?
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Ah you chaps, you're like sheep. 'Complete ignorance' eh? One thing you at least should have noticed in the last 6 months is the total failure of the massed financial experts of the western world to predict anything more than 6 inches from their noses or six hours in the future with a success rate greater than 50%. Anyone who says 'this will happen' with confidence has completely failed to learn the lessons of history - most of it recent - and deserves the label 'ignorant' for the hubris alone. A big dose of humility would be appropriate for most of the 'experts' here.
The post by Bealzebub on Page 87 is the most cogent, accurate and sober summary of this thread I have seen.
The post by Bealzebub on Page 87 is the most cogent, accurate and sober summary of this thread I have seen.
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To be honest I am amazed the weakness of the pound has not got more commentary on this thread. It is 30% more expensive to go anywhere in Europe or the US.... have you been to Europe recently.. £4-5 a pint!! 
Even poor old Boris Johnson was moaning about the cost of the Johnson family ski holiday.
I think a significant amount of people will decide to holiday in the UK. I don't understand why everyone thinks "Joe Public WILL always go on his/her week in the sun".... not if they are scared for their job or have already lost it. Anyone care to explain the logic?? What % of Easy and Ryanairs flights are to Euro denominated countries??
My firm has cancelled all non-essential travel and moved all non-intercontinental travel to low cost economy fares. We are one of BAs biggest customers. Also our headcount is down from 33k at its peak to 21k.... and we are still cutting. We are still in a steepening dive in this recession although I think some of the pilots have now worked out how serious our predicament is and started to pull back on the control column..... I reckon we bottom out Q4 2009, Q1 2010...... then I will wager we will have the mother of all inflation problems.... there will no be no more than a handful of pilot jobs around for years and years.
Even poor old Boris Johnson was moaning about the cost of the Johnson family ski holiday.I think a significant amount of people will decide to holiday in the UK. I don't understand why everyone thinks "Joe Public WILL always go on his/her week in the sun".... not if they are scared for their job or have already lost it. Anyone care to explain the logic?? What % of Easy and Ryanairs flights are to Euro denominated countries??
My firm has cancelled all non-essential travel and moved all non-intercontinental travel to low cost economy fares. We are one of BAs biggest customers. Also our headcount is down from 33k at its peak to 21k.... and we are still cutting. We are still in a steepening dive in this recession although I think some of the pilots have now worked out how serious our predicament is and started to pull back on the control column..... I reckon we bottom out Q4 2009, Q1 2010...... then I will wager we will have the mother of all inflation problems.... there will no be no more than a handful of pilot jobs around for years and years.
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Heh - the problem with all the armchair experts here is you all have WAY too much time on your hands, and as a result read into everything 110%, overcomplicate matters and as a result give off ever such a bitter vibe of sour grapes.
A close friend of mine who is a teacher of Economics now, following a very successful career as head economic advisor to Morrison's during the recession of the early nineties said to me one evening recently, and I quote, "This has been blown far out of proportion. The UK economy needs a couple of years to reattain equilibrium, but 99% of the depression we have is psychological. Consumer confidence. 2010 will bring brighter skies, and in 2011, the sun will be out again. That just leaves us with our always present problems, that always seem worse when a recession is upon us."
He also went on to tell me, "There are methods of control the government have over our domestic economy which aren't publicised. It will never be allowed to reach the oh so often called 'catastrophic proportions' mentioned on the news. People should worry for themselves, but not for the economy. The government is well equipped to look after itself, and part of the scam is forcing people to believe we're in trouble."
That's what a real (and very well connected) Economist has to say, away from the spotlights and cameras.
Take your pick, call bluff, whatever, that's what I've been told.
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A close friend of mine who is a teacher of Economics now, following a very successful career as head economic advisor to Morrison's during the recession of the early nineties said to me one evening recently, and I quote, "This has been blown far out of proportion. The UK economy needs a couple of years to reattain equilibrium, but 99% of the depression we have is psychological. Consumer confidence. 2010 will bring brighter skies, and in 2011, the sun will be out again. That just leaves us with our always present problems, that always seem worse when a recession is upon us."
He also went on to tell me, "There are methods of control the government have over our domestic economy which aren't publicised. It will never be allowed to reach the oh so often called 'catastrophic proportions' mentioned on the news. People should worry for themselves, but not for the economy. The government is well equipped to look after itself, and part of the scam is forcing people to believe we're in trouble."
That's what a real (and very well connected) Economist has to say, away from the spotlights and cameras.
Take your pick, call bluff, whatever, that's what I've been told.
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Annual house prices plunge 16.6 per cent
The average price of a house is 16.6 per cent lower than this time last year after a further 1.3 per cent fall in January, according to figures published today by Britain's biggest building society.
The January fall recorded by the Nationwide is lower than the 2.5 per cent slump in value seen last month, but is still well ahead of the fall of 0.4 per cent reported in November.
The January fall recorded by the Nationwide is lower than the 2.5 per cent slump in value seen last month, but is still well ahead of the fall of 0.4 per cent reported in November.
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There is going to be an avalanche of talented, bright people coming out of the city back into the "real world".... so competition for jobs will be intense.
Maybe you will get some but once you're addicted to 'bonus hunting', there is nothing in the world that gives you the same buzz!
Just passed my p1
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Heli-port sorry just to clarify was not a comment aimed at city folk just becoming pilots.
A lot of people in industry should be looking over their shoulders because the competition for their jobs is going to step up (a lot).
Also I see the CEO of Easyjet has apparently sold half of his total holding in the company's shares in the last few days!!! Now that is a vote of confidence in the outlook for this summer.
Last one out please turn off the lights...
P.S. congrats on the P1 Heli_port!
A lot of people in industry should be looking over their shoulders because the competition for their jobs is going to step up (a lot).
Also I see the CEO of Easyjet has apparently sold half of his total holding in the company's shares in the last few days!!! Now that is a vote of confidence in the outlook for this summer.
Last one out please turn off the lights...
P.S. congrats on the P1 Heli_port!
At the genesis of this thread's original thread I offered the opinion that there would be a house price crash. And further that the scale of it would approximate to the scale of the recession that would follow.
I stand by that correlation. Todays 1.3% (Nationwide) fall for Dec means that the UK now has the Longest fall, the Sharpest fall and the Deepest fall in house prices recorded. There are also no signs of abatement.
I therefore expect the recession to be the longest, sharpest and deepest recorded.
Its not really complicated but its a simple opinion to explain.
Commentary on the dismal science is filtered through a dizzying cloud of spin and vested interest and is notorious for it. Which is why I think it often pays a better dividend to study modern economic history closely. If the world is still broadly the same as it was the last time X occurred resulting in Y then todays Y may be predicted by looking at todays X..
Unfortunately for Wannabes your career is very closely and critically tied to the economic cycle over which you can have no influence.
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I stand by that correlation. Todays 1.3% (Nationwide) fall for Dec means that the UK now has the Longest fall, the Sharpest fall and the Deepest fall in house prices recorded. There are also no signs of abatement.
I therefore expect the recession to be the longest, sharpest and deepest recorded.
Its not really complicated but its a simple opinion to explain.
Commentary on the dismal science is filtered through a dizzying cloud of spin and vested interest and is notorious for it. Which is why I think it often pays a better dividend to study modern economic history closely. If the world is still broadly the same as it was the last time X occurred resulting in Y then todays Y may be predicted by looking at todays X..
Unfortunately for Wannabes your career is very closely and critically tied to the economic cycle over which you can have no influence.
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"the UK now has the Longest fall, the Sharpest fall and the Deepest fall in house prices recorded"
This is symptomatic of the rubbish peddled as 'facts', I wouldn't mind except it is said with such confidence. Let's check this out by looking at the oft quoted Nationwide figures. Figures show to the end of 2008.
Longest fall? No. Raw prices fell from the third quarter of 1989 to the second quarter of 1993, three and a half years, and then stayed level-ish for a couple of years. The equivalent figures for this crash show a fall for only a year and a quarter.
Sharpest fall? Possibly, just. There's a 15% drop in 5 quarters to the end of 08. The first 5 quarters of the 1989 crash show a 13% drop. Not a big difference, though.
Deepest fall? No, the 1989 crash shows a 20% drop from peak to trough.
As a moderator, at least get your facts right before you put your 'Mad Max' hat on.
This is symptomatic of the rubbish peddled as 'facts', I wouldn't mind except it is said with such confidence. Let's check this out by looking at the oft quoted Nationwide figures. Figures show to the end of 2008.
Longest fall? No. Raw prices fell from the third quarter of 1989 to the second quarter of 1993, three and a half years, and then stayed level-ish for a couple of years. The equivalent figures for this crash show a fall for only a year and a quarter.
Sharpest fall? Possibly, just. There's a 15% drop in 5 quarters to the end of 08. The first 5 quarters of the 1989 crash show a 13% drop. Not a big difference, though.
Deepest fall? No, the 1989 crash shows a 20% drop from peak to trough.
As a moderator, at least get your facts right before you put your 'Mad Max' hat on.
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Also I see the CEO of Easyjet has apparently sold half of his total holding in the companies shares in the last few days!!! Now that is a vote of confidence in the outlook for this summer.
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Alex-followed the link ref house prices. Most interesting is average price 1998 around the 65k mark. Average now around £165k.
Given that lending in 1998 was relatively sensible (3x salary etc) then the 1998 prices were reasonable. Taking the 3x salary as a guide (worked fine in the 'old days') then average salary needs to be around 55k, which is definitely not the case in the UK. Add in job losses and I think house prices generally will continue to fall. Much of consumer spending was based on the 'feel good' factor of their house value going up.
Given that lending in 1998 was relatively sensible (3x salary etc) then the 1998 prices were reasonable. Taking the 3x salary as a guide (worked fine in the 'old days') then average salary needs to be around 55k, which is definitely not the case in the UK. Add in job losses and I think house prices generally will continue to fall. Much of consumer spending was based on the 'feel good' factor of their house value going up.
Steepest, yes.
Deepest -
Jan 09 is now £150,501 from a peak in July 07 of £193,153. A 22.1% fall. As far as I can see the Nationwide figures for the last crash show a peak in Q3 1989 at £62,782 to a low of £50,168 so showing a 20.1% fall over 3 years.
Longest. Got me there. It isn't. Yet. Although todays Daily Telegraph thinks it is:
UK house prices fall further in January - Telegraph
UK house prices fall further in January
UK house prices fell for a fifteenth straight month in January - the longest run on record - as the deepening recession in the UK adds further downward pressure on the once booming market. Article continues..
I was thinking about this being a much longer recession than the early 90's (it was just two quarters then). Of course some Government Ministers are already seeing the green shoots of recovery and Margaret Becket the Housing Minister is saying that this is a very good year to buy..
This HPC is harder than the last one Alex. I think you probably agree the broad point.
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Deepest -
Jan 09 is now £150,501 from a peak in July 07 of £193,153. A 22.1% fall. As far as I can see the Nationwide figures for the last crash show a peak in Q3 1989 at £62,782 to a low of £50,168 so showing a 20.1% fall over 3 years.
Longest. Got me there. It isn't. Yet. Although todays Daily Telegraph thinks it is:
UK house prices fall further in January - Telegraph
UK house prices fall further in January
UK house prices fell for a fifteenth straight month in January - the longest run on record - as the deepening recession in the UK adds further downward pressure on the once booming market. Article continues..
I was thinking about this being a much longer recession than the early 90's (it was just two quarters then). Of course some Government Ministers are already seeing the green shoots of recovery and Margaret Becket the Housing Minister is saying that this is a very good year to buy..
This HPC is harder than the last one Alex. I think you probably agree the broad point.
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Fair cop, I didn't include January, I just took the quarterly figures. I think all you can say so far - without quibbling about one or two percent - is that this crash looks very much like the last one except that, at this point in the cycle, the big drop in the last crash had just finished and the rate of fall was starting to reduce whereas this time we seem to be getting a more sustained steep drop.
I think we broadly agree, though, but you have to remember that the indicators from the past can be interpreted in a number of ways. The 1980 crash only shows up if you account for inflation, for instance. If you look at the raw prices they don't fall. Similarly the 1989 crash with inflation adjusted shows a fall, peak to trough, of 37%, nearly twice what we have seen so far.
There's also the issue of cause and effect. Does economic downturn follow house price crash? Is it the other way around or are they simultaneous events? You can theorise, of course, but I don't think you can justifiably draw such firm conclusions.
I think we broadly agree, though, but you have to remember that the indicators from the past can be interpreted in a number of ways. The 1980 crash only shows up if you account for inflation, for instance. If you look at the raw prices they don't fall. Similarly the 1989 crash with inflation adjusted shows a fall, peak to trough, of 37%, nearly twice what we have seen so far.
There's also the issue of cause and effect. Does economic downturn follow house price crash? Is it the other way around or are they simultaneous events? You can theorise, of course, but I don't think you can justifiably draw such firm conclusions.
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Well obviously we've all decided to take this 'matter' into our own hands.
So when do we storm parliament? Who gets to kill Gordon Brown? (I've got dibs on Prescott and Major).
And most importantly, when we elect ourselves in this freedom of movement, who is going to be the new PM? Preferably somebody who knows what's going on in the world, and not some toff educated at Eton, breezed through Oxbridge, and straight onto the benches having never done a hard days' work in their life.
Any takers?
So when do we storm parliament? Who gets to kill Gordon Brown? (I've got dibs on Prescott and Major).
And most importantly, when we elect ourselves in this freedom of movement, who is going to be the new PM? Preferably somebody who knows what's going on in the world, and not some toff educated at Eton, breezed through Oxbridge, and straight onto the benches having never done a hard days' work in their life.
Any takers?
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I do see your point and I respect your opinion. I actually agree with most of it but all that makes it is our opinion, it's not a fact. I'm pointing out - again - that facts need to be checked before being presented as truth. As we have seen, you can't even rely on the Telegraph!
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I just found this article by George Soros and thought some readers might be interested: FT.com / Comment / Analysis - The game changer
I am no big fan of his, but he does shed light on the role Credit Default Swaps and short selling of Financial Institution stocks played in the rapid burst of the bubble. I also fear his prescription probably presents yet another option for him to rake in billions if it is adopted. Good reading nonetheless though.
I am no big fan of his, but he does shed light on the role Credit Default Swaps and short selling of Financial Institution stocks played in the rapid burst of the bubble. I also fear his prescription probably presents yet another option for him to rake in billions if it is adopted. Good reading nonetheless though.