Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Stressors perceived and not really there ?
I reckon theres a few thousand people at least would disagree with that at the moment. Must be a lot of sand on this thread for people to stick their heads in to!
I reckon theres a few thousand people at least would disagree with that at the moment. Must be a lot of sand on this thread for people to stick their heads in to!
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I strongly agree with flying_shortly. & I still believe that there are jobs available only for those who can do some serious networking, but not for those who sit back in front of their PC,s and wait for an employer's email or phone call!!
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Remember in the pooley's Human Factors and Performance book that it says many stressors are only perceived and not actually there....
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Not wanting to argue with you I'll leave you with this Regan quote:
"The only thing we have to fear is fear it'self - nameless, unreasoning, unjustified, terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."
"The only thing we have to fear is fear it'self - nameless, unreasoning, unjustified, terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."
flying shortly - Give up mate.
There are a number of regulars on this thread who bathe in gloom and pessimism. I don't believe they post on the Wannabes forums out of some noble sense of altruism - despite what they may say - but because it comforts them to do so. For them the recession will never end. If any of them were to win the Euromillions jackpot tonight they'd be on here complaining that their newfound wealth was too burdensome!
I mean, honestly, how did we cope between 1939 - 1945 with these people in our midst?
Rant over. Hard hat on. Coat on arm. Running for exit.
There are a number of regulars on this thread who bathe in gloom and pessimism. I don't believe they post on the Wannabes forums out of some noble sense of altruism - despite what they may say - but because it comforts them to do so. For them the recession will never end. If any of them were to win the Euromillions jackpot tonight they'd be on here complaining that their newfound wealth was too burdensome!
I mean, honestly, how did we cope between 1939 - 1945 with these people in our midst?
Rant over. Hard hat on. Coat on arm. Running for exit.
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We coped because of heroes like you MikeHotel152.
Now who is the pessimist? Why don't you believe we are offering our advice with the best of intentions? Do as I say, not as I do......
I don't believe they post on the Wannabes forums out of some noble sense of altruism - despite what they may say
JB007 - I worked hard and got a job. It's not ideal, but it's a job. Some specs, some sandpit.
TheBeak - Thanks. Sarcastic, but probably true.
As for your other comment: Anyone with any sense knows the economy is up 
creek and training is frought with danger, but all rivers lead to the sea...eventually.
MH152
TheBeak - Thanks. Sarcastic, but probably true.
As for your other comment: Anyone with any sense knows the economy is up creek and training is frought with danger, but all rivers lead to the sea...eventually.MH152
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Staying off topic for a minute...
What the investor didn't mention was that he bought off plan based on a valuation of £175k which was very probably inflated to ensure that he had 30% equity at day one. The property possibly never actually had a true value of £175k. (true LTV may have been as much as 100%) Valuers get caught up in a game of ever rising value where the sales at inflated asking prices are recored in the land registry. This provides 'evidence' that there are buyers willing to buy at that price. The Buy to let investors that were buying into immediate equity deals were taking a punt on the market rising further so that their notional equit became real equity. When the market bombed their equity evaporated.
Yes, the market has been re based and it is now probably a good time to buy cheap interest rates, cheap property and wide choice. Buy for need not for greed. We are unlikely to see a rapidly escalating housing market for some years to come - until the banks come up with a new wheeze to make easy money!
How does this affect aviation - leisure travel is discretionary expenditure. People tend to judge wealth on their paper worth - even when their cash position is quite weak. If their houses are rising in value they will spend that 'unearned' income. Business travel is seem as extravagant and when jobs need to be culled and businesses are going to the wall it is the frugal managers that thrive.
We are seeing some improved financial news. This could be a dead cat bounce - in which case we are all doomed - or evidence that market confidence is returning. Only hindsight will tell. However, sooner of later we will have stability again and gradually pax will return. Unfortunatley, I think there may be a few casualties before that happens.
A property investor who bought a flat for £175,000 at the height of the housing boom has ended up in a negative equity nightmare after its value nosedived by almost 50 per cent.
Yes, the market has been re based and it is now probably a good time to buy cheap interest rates, cheap property and wide choice. Buy for need not for greed. We are unlikely to see a rapidly escalating housing market for some years to come - until the banks come up with a new wheeze to make easy money!
How does this affect aviation - leisure travel is discretionary expenditure. People tend to judge wealth on their paper worth - even when their cash position is quite weak. If their houses are rising in value they will spend that 'unearned' income. Business travel is seem as extravagant and when jobs need to be culled and businesses are going to the wall it is the frugal managers that thrive.
We are seeing some improved financial news. This could be a dead cat bounce - in which case we are all doomed - or evidence that market confidence is returning. Only hindsight will tell. However, sooner of later we will have stability again and gradually pax will return. Unfortunatley, I think there may be a few casualties before that happens.
If the best argument you've got is to accuse people of being pessimistic doom mongers then you're weak and struggling.
In 1992 the 2 quarters of recession under the Major government were over. Over the next 18 months 2 of the 4 largest UK airlines went bust. In 1992 people were probably saying its a great time to train. We'll never know because Danny and Rob hadn't got around to inventing PPRuNe yet.
I have NOTHING to gain from offering my opinion, which is scathingly negative at the moment, about flying training. 3 years ago I was describing how we were living through a 'golden age of wannabeism' as jobs were like apples falling from the tree. CTC I constantly chipped in was the automatic express ride to jet airlineship..
Now its pants. Its not going to change for years. If you recently trained you're screwed.
Its just how it is.
WWW
In 1992 the 2 quarters of recession under the Major government were over. Over the next 18 months 2 of the 4 largest UK airlines went bust. In 1992 people were probably saying its a great time to train. We'll never know because Danny and Rob hadn't got around to inventing PPRuNe yet.
I have NOTHING to gain from offering my opinion, which is scathingly negative at the moment, about flying training. 3 years ago I was describing how we were living through a 'golden age of wannabeism' as jobs were like apples falling from the tree. CTC I constantly chipped in was the automatic express ride to jet airlineship..
Now its pants. Its not going to change for years. If you recently trained you're screwed.
Its just how it is.
WWW
If the best argument you've got is to accuse people of being pessimistic doom mongers then you're weak and struggling.
You dodged my best argument because it doesn't fit with your inherently negative way of viewing the world around you. It is an inescapable fact that the economy is up
creek. But nevertheless there are jobs out there for those with the luck, talent or perseverence to get them. I'd be happier if that reality were portrayed on this forum rather than people peddling their hobby economic theories to the masses, whether they guessed it right in the past and can come up with lots of facts and figues to prove they're right about the future.
It's so easy to be negative, safe in the knowledge that over-performance is never criticised. Sometimes reading this thread is akin to the media's over-hyped and fickle treatment of the England Football Team before and after a Tournament.
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But nevertheless there are jobs out there for those with the luck, talent or perseverence to get them.
As for your other comment: Anyone with any sense knows the economy is up 
creek and training is frought with danger, but all rivers lead to the sea...eventually.
creek and training is frought with danger, but all rivers lead to the sea...eventually.
Yes maybe one day but you'll need £2000 a year to service the licence, ratings and medical expenses until you find a job. Not everyone can afford to haemorrhage money like that after spending £50-80K on a CPL/IR. Not when they are paying back their debt.
. CTC I constantly chipped in was the automatic express ride to jet airlineship..
Now its pants. Its not going to change for years. If you recently trained you're screwed.
Now its pants. Its not going to change for years. If you recently trained you're screwed.
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It amazes me that this attitude of 'if you want it enough it will happen' stilll exists in the way it does. Is 'really really' wanting to do something some sort of magic wand to just make an airline career appear? Does this work the same way for the lottery?!
Luck? How can you possibly, in all seriousness bank on luck as a factor in getting a job and being able to pay back a mortgage sized loan?
How irresponsible to encourage people to take loans they cant afford to get a qualification which there is no guarantee they will finish/pass and no guarantee will land a job!
Luck? How can you possibly, in all seriousness bank on luck as a factor in getting a job and being able to pay back a mortgage sized loan?
How irresponsible to encourage people to take loans they cant afford to get a qualification which there is no guarantee they will finish/pass and no guarantee will land a job!
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Exactly, it is about risk management. And there is absolutely NO risk management demonstrated by joining an integrated pilot training course right now having done a one hour trial flight, if that, and putting your parents home or your wife/husband/boyfriend/girlfriends assets on the line just because you want it NOW, NOW, NOW! It is nothing but self indulgence. It isn't clever or calculated. If it was then banks would lend unsecured. It is a dangerous game that WILL wipe out families lives in the next year or two by taking their homes from them and leaving the individual unable to maintain their already useless license. I'd make sure it isn't yours. Or you can believe in the power of positive thought, kiss your lucky charm, go through your OCD-esque rituals and believe you are making it happen. Get real. Of course it will go the other way one day but searching for that 2-3 year of window of opportunity in the next 100 is a complete stab in the dark. Plan for the worst and hope for the best. But expect the worst. And really expect it now. I wouldn't be punting a secured £90K (including interest payments and living expenses by the time you are done) on that. Flying shortly if you really think it is all great why don't you carpe diem and make it 'flying now' - put your money where your mouth is. Don't be an optimist or a pessimist, BE A REALIST. If you have to do it, go modular. One has to take a healthy amount of risk in their lives in order to get ahead but MANAGE IT.
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TheBeak,
You shouldn't jump to conclusions. I'm not training integrated for one. And, number two, why do you assume I want to get into a jet at the end of it all. Actually, I'd be quite happy flying full stop whether it be taxi, ambulance, cargo or otherwise. There's more than one way of skinning a cat and likewise more than one way of getting into a cockpit. Just because I'm positive and optimistic does not mean I throw my money around irresponsibly. And I certainly am not expecting my parents to foot the bill of my ambitions.
TheBeak, maybe you might outline your position. It's all well giving advice if you've been through the mill but I suspect you've probably got an IT desk job wishing you'd done otherwise....
You shouldn't jump to conclusions. I'm not training integrated for one. And, number two, why do you assume I want to get into a jet at the end of it all. Actually, I'd be quite happy flying full stop whether it be taxi, ambulance, cargo or otherwise. There's more than one way of skinning a cat and likewise more than one way of getting into a cockpit. Just because I'm positive and optimistic does not mean I throw my money around irresponsibly. And I certainly am not expecting my parents to foot the bill of my ambitions.
TheBeak, maybe you might outline your position. It's all well giving advice if you've been through the mill but I suspect you've probably got an IT desk job wishing you'd done otherwise....