Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
This winter will be bloody.
Did you miss Lufthansa trying to crash BMI (of which they own 30%) by claiming it didn't have the 3 months cash at hand required by the CAA. All so they could get out of buying 50% more of a business that lost £100m last financial year?
Either this economic cycle is different to all previous ones OR lots of significant airlines in Europe will go bust in the next two winters.
Your call.
WWW
Did you miss Lufthansa trying to crash BMI (of which they own 30%) by claiming it didn't have the 3 months cash at hand required by the CAA. All so they could get out of buying 50% more of a business that lost £100m last financial year?
Either this economic cycle is different to all previous ones OR lots of significant airlines in Europe will go bust in the next two winters.
Your call.
WWW
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Europe’s most valuable airline Ryanair makes a loss
Ryanair claimed bragging rights as Europe’s most valuable airline yesterday, despite plunging to its first loss in 20 years.
Michael O’Leary, the airline’s chief executive, was in a bullish mood while announcing a €169 million (£145 million) loss for the year to the end of March. He said that the airline would return to profit this year and promised another price war, which he hopes will drive other airlines out of business.
The airline’s market capitalisation has reached €5.3 billion. This compares with Lufthansa, the German flag carrier, worth €4.5 billion, and Air France, worth €3.4 billion. British Airways’ market capitalisation is about £1.8 billion.
On the basis of these figures, Mr O’Leary claimed provocatively that Ryanair would launch a takeover bid for Lufthansa: “We are having a serious look at Lufthansa,” he said. “We could almost buy it for cash.” He added later: “That should have them choking on their cornflakes in Frankfurt tomorrow morning.”
In a sideswipe at BA, Mr O’ Leary said that he would not buy the British flag carrier because it was just “a pension fund deficit with wings”. His comments were an allusion to the fact that BA is expected to reveal this month that its pension deficit has nearly doubled to £3 billion.
Michael O’Leary, the airline’s chief executive, was in a bullish mood while announcing a €169 million (£145 million) loss for the year to the end of March. He said that the airline would return to profit this year and promised another price war, which he hopes will drive other airlines out of business.
The airline’s market capitalisation has reached €5.3 billion. This compares with Lufthansa, the German flag carrier, worth €4.5 billion, and Air France, worth €3.4 billion. British Airways’ market capitalisation is about £1.8 billion.
On the basis of these figures, Mr O’Leary claimed provocatively that Ryanair would launch a takeover bid for Lufthansa: “We are having a serious look at Lufthansa,” he said. “We could almost buy it for cash.” He added later: “That should have them choking on their cornflakes in Frankfurt tomorrow morning.”
In a sideswipe at BA, Mr O’ Leary said that he would not buy the British flag carrier because it was just “a pension fund deficit with wings”. His comments were an allusion to the fact that BA is expected to reveal this month that its pension deficit has nearly doubled to £3 billion.
UK consumer optimism 'increases'
UK consumers were more optimistic last month about the future than they had been for six months, according to the Nationwide Consumer Confidence index.
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WWW is right, as long people loose their job, house market will continue to go down generally.Unemployment and house marked are linked together.
In USA, people are selling their house at 40%-50% of the "real value"of 1-2 years ago. Still, people are broke and live outside, in camping places, and loan are very hard to get. You don't get a loan when you have no job.
when the end of the recession will come(it will start in the USA probably), it will take several years to be back like 2007-2008.Maybe 5-8 years.During the first 3 years, it will be still very hard to get a job. This is why there is no need to rush in a flight training, considering it takes only 2 years to train a pilot.
Several airlines may be out of business in a few months(after summer 09 or after winter 2010), it will just ad more alcohol in the fire.
If you are young, I would wait 2011, and depending of the situation, start training around 2013 to be ready in 2015 for the high peak of employment.
In USA, people are selling their house at 40%-50% of the "real value"of 1-2 years ago. Still, people are broke and live outside, in camping places, and loan are very hard to get. You don't get a loan when you have no job.
when the end of the recession will come(it will start in the USA probably), it will take several years to be back like 2007-2008.Maybe 5-8 years.During the first 3 years, it will be still very hard to get a job. This is why there is no need to rush in a flight training, considering it takes only 2 years to train a pilot.
Several airlines may be out of business in a few months(after summer 09 or after winter 2010), it will just ad more alcohol in the fire.
If you are young, I would wait 2011, and depending of the situation, start training around 2013 to be ready in 2015 for the high peak of employment.
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I would strongly disgagree, those who are qualified and ready should be in a good position by 2012 - like always, if you want a job bad enough, you will find one!
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like always, if you want a job bad enough, you will find one!
should be in a good position
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In the period 1990 - 1992 when house prices were crashing last time house prices actually rose in 1 out of 3 months. Every month there was a rise the whole Vested Interest industry trumpeted it but were always very much quieter for the next two months when they fell again.
I still have an interest in that chain of estate agents: they rent some property from me, and so I take a keen interest in how their business is going. Chatting to their sales staff reveals that they have indeed noticed a real difference in the take up of properties recently. This is different from that experienced back in the 1990s, when the government offered no intervention and allowed interest rates to operate to their own wild limits.
It may be a short lived improvement but it is an improvement seen by the man on the street and his agent. In my memory this did not happen in the 90s.
We've just had Spring and Easter which is to the house selling market what Christmas is to the High Street.
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Another reason might be that the "crash of '90 to '92" is only visible in the historic data when it is rebased against inflation, which was higher than today. The raw figures don't show much of either a fall or a rise of average prices, as mikehammer says.
Interest rates have been crash dived to 0.5% from 5%.
Mortgage rates remain around 5%. What happens when the base rate returns to 5% and has to go considerably higher to make government bonds attractive to international buyers?
I'll tell you what happens. House prices return to the their long term average of 3.5 times average earnings which means another 20% ish fall in prices.
This is a bear trap.
WWW
Mortgage rates remain around 5%. What happens when the base rate returns to 5% and has to go considerably higher to make government bonds attractive to international buyers?
I'll tell you what happens. House prices return to the their long term average of 3.5 times average earnings which means another 20% ish fall in prices.
This is a bear trap.
WWW
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British Airways pilots to take voluntary pay cut as air traffic falls
PILOTS at British Airways are set to take a voluntary pay cut to help the airline weather a disastrous plunge in traffic that has led to it running up record losses.
The unprecedented move will be discussed this week at a meeting of the BA section of Balpa, the UK pilots’ union. Pilots are likely to be balloted on a range of cost-saving measures, including a small across-the-board pay cut, industry sources said. The union, which has held talks with BA ahead of this week’s meeting, hopes to have a package in place by the end of this month.
Willie Walsh, BA’s chief executive, has warned staff the company is in “a fight for survival”. He is seeking cost cuts across the board. While some groups of staff have played ball, Walsh said recently that talks with cabin crew had yielded little. The leaders of all BA’s unions are to meet tomorrow to discuss the airline’s plight.
The unprecedented move will be discussed this week at a meeting of the BA section of Balpa, the UK pilots’ union. Pilots are likely to be balloted on a range of cost-saving measures, including a small across-the-board pay cut, industry sources said. The union, which has held talks with BA ahead of this week’s meeting, hopes to have a package in place by the end of this month.
Willie Walsh, BA’s chief executive, has warned staff the company is in “a fight for survival”. He is seeking cost cuts across the board. While some groups of staff have played ball, Walsh said recently that talks with cabin crew had yielded little. The leaders of all BA’s unions are to meet tomorrow to discuss the airline’s plight.
more of a hobby than flying itself.
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Apparantly the Cabin Crew are being faced with the option to go on voluntary part time contracts or face redundancies...... in my mind the whole company need to take the pay cuts on the chin including the Pilot's. It's regrettable but in my view it has to happen if thigns are so bad that the airline is in a fight for survival. None of us like it but better to be on 10% or even 20% less pay and have a job than sat at home with not earning. (I've plucked those percentages out of the air by the way, I haven't got a clue what the actual figures may be but if they're serious about saving some real dosh then I don't think that the cuts will be much less). 
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Airlines' losses to soar further
The International Air Transport Association (Iata) says airlines may lose $9bn this year - almost double the estimate made just three months ago.
The US's third largest airline, United, is asking rival plane makers Boeing and Airbus to prepare bids for an order that could total 150 jets.
The carrier is hoping to take advantage of the recession to get a better price for the deal that could be worth $10bn dollars.
The carrier is hoping to take advantage of the recession to get a better price for the deal that could be worth $10bn dollars.
Last edited by quant; 8th Jun 2009 at 08:38.
Airlines to lose $9bn as recession bites - Times Online
Its not pessimistic to expect an engine failure at VR and I do that most days..
There's not one but two dispatchers at work who both graduated from Integrated courses last year. Both are bright and capable people. Both working in the industry albeit filling out the loadsheet rather than signing for it. Neither have a sniff of a job and nor the prospect of one.
So why do you think you'll be any different?
XL was just a tremor.
WWW
The world’s airlines will lose $9 billion (£5.86 billion) in 2009, double the level forecast as recently as March, a key industry body warned today.
Airline losses in the first three months of the year have been much more severe than expected as the economic crisis continues to batter demand, Iata, the global airline trade association, said.
Iata, which represents 230 airlines worldwide, said that global airlines had experienced a “rapidly deteriorating revenue environment”.
Airline losses in the first three months of the year have been much more severe than expected as the economic crisis continues to batter demand, Iata, the global airline trade association, said.
Iata, which represents 230 airlines worldwide, said that global airlines had experienced a “rapidly deteriorating revenue environment”.
Its not pessimistic to expect an engine failure at VR and I do that most days..
There's not one but two dispatchers at work who both graduated from Integrated courses last year. Both are bright and capable people. Both working in the industry albeit filling out the loadsheet rather than signing for it. Neither have a sniff of a job and nor the prospect of one.
So why do you think you'll be any different?
XL was just a tremor.
WWW
Flying Shortly, you're probably young and bursting with enthusiasm. When I was young, I started flying with disdain for the recession. I was OK, the recession held me back a couple of years, but I got there in the end. But things are different now because this is more like a depression than a recession and because flying training involves a lot more money than it did when I was young. I know you'll ignore me and go ahead anyway - like I would have done, but please, have a plan B and don't borrow the money against your parents house.
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Isn't that what you said last year?
Yes, airlines have gone out of business but (and on the understanding this website is predominantly UK based) which major airlines went out?
1.XL . OK, a very big one, but it was a (rather spurious) inabillity to re-new credit rather than any recession-lead lack of demand, that sent them out of business.
2. Silverjet et al, great idea, wrong time.
3. VA made, what was it, approx 15 people (?) redundant.
4. BA made a big, but expected, loss asked for some voluntary early retirements. And with the way "The Pension" is going, a good move by the retirees.
And... ?? (from a UK "major" prespective)
You spent all of last summer promising us multiple major UK airline failures last winter due to this recession but we didn't really see it, did we? Even RYR managed an operating profit!
Still, I do agree, no jobs for several years, but lets just drop the drama-queen hysterics.
Edited to correct my daft spelling of "Excel"
This winter will be bloody.
Yes, airlines have gone out of business but (and on the understanding this website is predominantly UK based) which major airlines went out?
1.XL . OK, a very big one, but it was a (rather spurious) inabillity to re-new credit rather than any recession-lead lack of demand, that sent them out of business.
2. Silverjet et al, great idea, wrong time.
3. VA made, what was it, approx 15 people (?) redundant.
4. BA made a big, but expected, loss asked for some voluntary early retirements. And with the way "The Pension" is going, a good move by the retirees.
And... ?? (from a UK "major" prespective)
You spent all of last summer promising us multiple major UK airline failures last winter due to this recession but we didn't really see it, did we? Even RYR managed an operating profit!
Still, I do agree, no jobs for several years, but lets just drop the drama-queen hysterics.
Edited to correct my daft spelling of "Excel"
Last edited by Artie Fufkin; 9th Jun 2009 at 21:03.
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1. Flightline
2. BritishJet
3. Air Europe
4. European
5. Sterling
6. LTE
7. XL
8. Futura
9. Zoom
10. SilverJet
11. EuroManx
12. Eos
13. Oasis Hong Kong
14. Max Jet
15. UK International airlines
16. SilverJet
17. FlyMe
All employing British pilots. And that is just off the top of my head. The higher you go the harder you fall, if you don't see that next winter is going to be horrendous you are in for a nasty surprise. For a kick off interest rates are still VERY low, WHEN they go up it is going to bring a whole new level of pain.
I hope that it isn't that bad but prepare for the worst.
2. BritishJet
3. Air Europe
4. European
5. Sterling
6. LTE
7. XL
8. Futura
9. Zoom
10. SilverJet
11. EuroManx
12. Eos
13. Oasis Hong Kong
14. Max Jet
15. UK International airlines
16. SilverJet
17. FlyMe
All employing British pilots. And that is just off the top of my head. The higher you go the harder you fall, if you don't see that next winter is going to be horrendous you are in for a nasty surprise. For a kick off interest rates are still VERY low, WHEN they go up it is going to bring a whole new level of pain.
I hope that it isn't that bad but prepare for the worst.
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Ha, so I did!
If you add all those minor and in some cases major (XL, Futura) airlines you get a major occurence. The situation is just not good and is really not being helped by ar*eholes paying to fly. But there we go......
If you add all those minor and in some cases major (XL, Futura) airlines you get a major occurence. The situation is just not good and is really not being helped by ar*eholes paying to fly. But there we go......
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You most certainly can Foghorn Leghorn......It means the likes of Ryanair can charge F all for flights and so drive all the other airlines prices either down or force them to make large losses. It's not the route cause but it does not help.