Scroggs we shorted in late November of last year. By no means everybody was telling you all was ok or all was good , in fact the first rumblings that all wasnt came last July.
I think your missing the point though, that while a small body of people can make various predictions aka WWW or 777, you or me if you look towards the market its a broader look at what many many institutional investors and non armchair economists think and if you watch it over the next few days / weeks you will see it get a whole lot worse . thats my point. You will see the real economy get worse behind the market and recover after the market and well my contention is that we are nowhere close to the worst ( despite what LEH or GS say ) . Were the papers telling you 3 months ago to buy while everything was cheap ? Half the news you watch about the " bottom being in " is the markets way of creating retail demand as positions are being unwound. You only have to look over the last six months to see that now. Today alone the housing sector and many of the largest mortgage companies lost another huge chunk in valuation ( SLM - 11% and FRE - 18% ).. in one day.
It doesnt take an economist to tell you there are rumours circulating in the hallways about cutbacks in your workforce or going belly up but it will be economists who tell your airline when to start recruiting again and if the market is anything to go by that will be a very long time. When that begins i contend that there will be quite a pool of qualified pilots ( which is why i didnt bother turning up at Bristol even though i have paid for it ). I have been connected in a number of ways in my sport to aviation since 9/11 and watched many many good pilots lose everything.
Isnt it just crazy that many airlines are not even trading at the value of their assets ( airframes ) .
This is more my point, it might be interesting to you to take a look at recruitment numbers in your own company over the last 8 years and compare them to a chart of say the DOW, SP500 or FTSE over that same time period.
Last edited by thirtysomething; 7th Jul 2008 at 21:21.