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Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....

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Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....

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Old 7th Feb 2008, 10:38
  #61 (permalink)  
 
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I agree with JB007 and WWW.

I got an email from an asian company telling me, until end 2008, they are full of 3000h pilots(for an A320 position).
Got an email from DHL telling me they got lot of applicants and they wish me good luck.
Then Rishworth telling us, they have received lot of emails for a job in Asia.

Then I 've applied in person in 3-4 different companies,gave my CV, they didn't show any interest, and still no answer.

so do yourself a favor, don't borrow money if you can not afford it!
(and forget these line trainings where you have to pay, these line trainings show us how bad the situation is).

if Alitalia go bust, you can say bye bye to your career!
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 11:04
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How's this for a plan....

Hello All. I've just passed all but one of my subjects on the OAT skills assessment two-day training. I'll go back in 3 months and re-sit that one part. If I pass I'm accepted onto the OAT ATPL 18 month course

Now ready through this thread and other sources my plan, if I pass would be this: Give myself a year to a) raise/save funds, b) secure loan from HSBC and most importantly C) let the winds of the current global financial storm settle and see how my prospects look. If the main forecast is correct 2008/2009 will be full of economically hard time affecting most if not all aspects of business in a negative way. But by late 2009/ going into 2010 thing should begin to look good again, and by this time (having started my training in spring 2009) I should have timed it right and will be able to enter an industry with greater employment opportunities for a recent ATPL graduate.

Please, I no expert, but how does that sound. What are my faults with this plan, any comments welcome.

Propogandhi.
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 11:42
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Mikecr

When things get tough its the contract pilots who get the chop first, then its last in first out for the ones on permanent contracts. Have a think about why some airlines employ contract pilots, then you might understand the relevance of it all.
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 14:55
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What's your total time Dartagnan?

If you have more than 500 hours, I can give you so many airlines that are hiring: SN, AF, FR, VLM, Swiss, Vueling, Clickair, etc...

I should have timed it right and will be able to enter an industry with greater employment opportunities for a recent ATPL graduate.
The sooner you start, the better.
Go modular, don't go to integrated!
For the same price as OAT you can get CPL IR ME and 500 hours total time.
At OAT you get 200 hours of which 50 are on simulators....
What will make you so special compared to othe candidates?

If taking a loan is necessary to finance your training, you're not on the right path and should rethink your strategy. I know plenty of guys working as cab drivers or mailmen to finance their training and the level of satisfaction when they get hired is high+they don't have a 700£ monthly loan repayment runnning over 10 years+have the freedom of taking a loan if required to pay the TR by their airline.

The market outlook is great, pilot is a job for life: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...t-by-2026.html

Last edited by Nichibei Aviation; 7th Feb 2008 at 21:57.
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 15:25
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Nichiebi I am starting to think you are either very stupid or a wind-up merchant.... if there are sooo many jobs out there why would it matter if you went modular or integrated?.... you would be snapped up the second you left school.... or are you now saying that maybe you won't get a job straight out of flight training??.... but that would mean that WWW and others who dare suggest that the next 2-3 years might be quite tough for pilot recruitment might be right... and you have spent the last couple of weeks arguing they are totally wrong!?!?.

You acuse people of listening too much to the press but then you quote straight from management (do they always tell the truth??) and the press to support your case??

So what is it... are you a wind up merchant.... stupid... or are you sure you were 100% honest when you said you didn't work for a flight school?? You are certainly a "unique" individual.
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 15:54
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Read my previous posts the answer is there, ie, no airline hires a 200 hour pilot unless it is desperate.
Airlines in Europe require an average of 500 hours total time.


As to your insults, you may keep them for yourself.

There are not many flight school employees wandering around on Pprune and it is because they don't take the time to answer to people like you.
So don't take advantage of my willingness to share information (within my field of expertise) to start throwing critics just to make yourself feel smarter or whatever emotions you are experiencing now.

We're not big money takers like traditional big aviation schools, but closer to volunteers, a quick look to our rates will tell you that we're the cheapest of the world.

And I'm going to disclose you a little secret because it's going to be on the website soon anyway:

We're looking to select Indian students with skills, no matter what social class they belong to, to give them the opportunity to have a good training for only around 30 000€ with Indian CPL, which will be on a loan that they'll start paying once hired.
That is in line with our philosophy that pilots should be selected on their skills and capabilities and not on their financial capacities.

If you are frustrated about high training costs and expensive advetising, go and throw critics to your local FTO.

I'm happy to help, because I can learn something from doing so.

There are alot of hypocrits in this world, but respect those that are not.
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 17:35
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Nichibei,

come down to earth and listen the big guys like WWW...If you don't have a strong experience on an eavy jet, there is very few chance to get a job.

these companies you mention, don't hire guys with 200 hours, not even with 500h, or not even with 6000h. they want EAVY JET experience like 2000-3000 hours of bus/boeing and preferably captains.

you make me laugh with your Cessna 152 integrated/modular flight club and you story about pilots shortage!!!.
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 18:50
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Propaghandi.....

Heres a thought - go do a PPL see if you like flying
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 19:27
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No no no. Much better to focus on getting 'in' to Oxfords prestigious course.

Sometimes you do feel like you are banging your head!

WWW
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 19:51
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trust me I do like flying that is never in doubt, but how does my plan stand up?
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 20:06
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Well, I was doubtful about Nichibei when he tried to play an expert on Scandinavian issues shortly after he opened his profile. It is always peculiar to be lectured by home issues by someone who has probably not even sat foot here. This thread has shown his true colours, though, and is little more than an advocate of the business he is an employee in i.e. flight training and anyone seeking advice should keep that in mind when reading his biased advice.

You can ask a the car dealer about the used car you are buying, but that certainly does not disclose the faults. The short Welshman seems to be a better source of unbiased advice, although he sees a bleaker picture than I do
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 20:22
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Shaun,

Your not understanding my post. Im simply saying that Ryanair require at least 400 - 500 new pilots this year, they are desperate. What contract they are on is irrevelant. Im trying to get across the point that the lo'co's are rubbing their hands at present should a recession hit. Of course it will be the contract people who go first, thats the whole bloomin reason MOL employs contract people in the first place. Easy come, easy go! The fact is that many airlines and operators will probably pull the pennies should the recession take hold, many others however will profit from the misfortune.
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 21:11
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they are desperate
I love this word (desperate), it seems you don't know really what desperate means?
when an airline receive hundred, thousand of CV every month, is the airline desperate?
they are not, because WE (pilots) are desperate to enter in the Ryanair club, and this is why Ryanair charge pilots 50 quids to send your desperate little CV.
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 21:34
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dartagnan,

Ryanair are looking to recruit 400 to 500 pilots this year. If you tick all the boxes and have everyhting current then you will undoubtdely be called for interview if you apply. I filled in the online application overnight and had 3 phonecalls next morning either asking me to go to an open day or go for interview/assesment. If you want to line their pockets and pay £500 for interview/assesment and then 25k for TR and job then be my guest. My cv isnt that 'desperate' im afraid. If you have applied to Ryanair and havent heard anything from them then i would suggest YOU will be the one who learns the meaning of the word 'desperate'. If you cant get an interview with them then your situation really is dire straits!
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 21:46
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Propagandi

Your plan I understand is this

Give myself a year to a) raise/save funds, b) secure loan from HSBC and most importantly C) let the winds of the current global financial storm settle and see how my prospects look. If the main forecast is correct 2008/2009 will be full of economically hard time affecting most if not all aspects of business in a negative way. But by late 2009/ going into 2010 thing should begin to look good again, and by this time (having started my training in spring 2009) I should have timed it right and will be able to enter an industry with greater employment opportunities for a recent ATPL graduate
If you are asking me what is wrong with this plan then the answer I'm afraid its pretty much all of it.

You dont mention your age, that is probably the most critical thing to affect the process of you getting a license. To be honest you could probably get a PPL and the ATPL's done for maybe 10k pay that back over 3 years at £300 a month whilst having a proper job. In three years time pop your head above the parapet and have a look see, if things are improving you are ideally placed to jack in work borrow another 15-20k and do the CPL/IR and be ready in 6 months for all the new 737 jobs that will be miraculously appearing.

The PPL will probably take 12-18months involve either two winters or two summers, the JAR Exams probably another 9-12 months with distance learning. If you choose the right school you will be just as good as skilled as anybody else in your experience bracket

The alternative is to have HSBC chasing you for 3-4 Years and be struggling to keep current, keep the powder dry and expose yourself to Aviation in a way that minimises your exposure.

May I also suggest that you give your shoes a polish bob down to your airport and find some corporate or GA machine and ask if you can hitch a ride somewhere, you will probably get told to bugger off - you might get lucky. This shows bigger cahunas than begging 80k off HSBC and galantly putting up your parents home as security.

After 2001 the job market was truly terrible for around 5 years, listen to the people who were around then and learn from the mistakes that were made, just dont forget to be empathic about the 80k oxford "Graduates" who will be cleaning your car windscreen at the traffic lights because they are bankrupt or involved in an IVA
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 21:55
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G-SPOT,

Well said!
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Old 7th Feb 2008, 21:55
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these companies you mention, don't hire guys with 200 hours, not even with 500h, or not even with 6000h. they want EAVY JET experience
you don't have a strong experience on an eavy jet,
To my knowledge, they don't hire guys who don't start sentences with capital letters, and spell "HEAVY" as "EAVY".
Dartagnan I guess you're French, so visit www.devenirpiloteairfrance.com
English is the worst obstacle when applying to Air France, not experience anymore.

and is little more than an advocate of the business he is an employee in i.e. flight training and anyone seeking advice should keep that in mind when reading his biased advice
The big irony of this is that I'm not selling JAA courses

In the end, you believe what you think is best for you to believe.
With or without you, the airline industry will move forward and so will I.

Wait till EK starts getting their 150+ aircraft and watch European airlines loosing over 2000 crew members to them, and wait till FR starts flying longhaul.

Here's an interesting graph to see: http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/2005%2...%20Only)p2.pdf

Last edited by Nichibei Aviation; 7th Feb 2008 at 22:17.
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Old 8th Feb 2008, 03:48
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Haha! Good post MikeCR, very near the truth for me. In desperation whilst a wannabee I applied to the dreaded blue and whites for a job. I must have been rubbish because they never even acknowledged the application! I now grace the skies flying for an old school British airline!!
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Old 8th Feb 2008, 05:53
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Yeah, its the hero worship that makes me love this job..

I'm no economist but I do read it. As I say dissenting views are always welcome. I am more convinced today than yesterday that the I'm faces recession. The figures out today for far east investment and US employment are firmly in crash territory.

This debate is a very important one for wannabes - how many times have we heard that timing is evertything..

WWW
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Old 8th Feb 2008, 15:30
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Ryanair will always recruit new pilots, as long as you pay them the thousands they want for the honour!
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