Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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Mark congrats on the job but rather than slagging people off who to date have largely proved to be right please spend a little time outlining where these opportunities are for the majority of wanabees.
Post some evidence that WWW is wrong... we all want cheering up so put you money where your mouth is rather than just saying "it will be okay, please don't say nasty things".... do some hard maths and show people why it is currently worth spending 50-100k rather than waiting 12-18 months and seeing how things shake out..... provide hard evidence please backing up a thesis that the pilot recruitment market will not be very very difficult over the next 2-3 years (please stick to markets where a UK based wanabee has a chance of being employed so don't start talking about India or China)....
I look forward to being cheered up!
Post some evidence that WWW is wrong... we all want cheering up so put you money where your mouth is rather than just saying "it will be okay, please don't say nasty things".... do some hard maths and show people why it is currently worth spending 50-100k rather than waiting 12-18 months and seeing how things shake out..... provide hard evidence please backing up a thesis that the pilot recruitment market will not be very very difficult over the next 2-3 years (please stick to markets where a UK based wanabee has a chance of being employed so don't start talking about India or China)....
I look forward to being cheered up!
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If i had listened to you i would now be back at my old crappy job and not flying for a living.
. I read a report yesterday which stated that the oil price will hover around $180 before the year is out before increasing to $200 next year.TBH i think people who are about to start training (like myself) should educate themselves about the current economic climate and then decide if they wish to proceed.
I personally find www & scroggs posts to be quite well written, afterall they are old enough to have been through it before
Oil price rebounds to over $136
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7451551.stm
Oil - paying the political price
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7446932.stm
right off to work (sadly not anywhere near a jet)
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4 years at Uni - Starting this September
ATPL after
Coinciding with the Market Recovery
BOOOOOOOOMTOWWWWWN!!!!!
(Only if the Aviation Industry follows suit, or maybe i'll stick with the engineering)
PS i think WWW needs to re-assess his gender, and stop acting as if he's God.
ATPL after
Coinciding with the Market Recovery
BOOOOOOOOMTOWWWWWN!!!!!
(Only if the Aviation Industry follows suit, or maybe i'll stick with the engineering)
PS i think WWW needs to re-assess his gender, and stop acting as if he's God.
Well I am omnipotent...
WWW
WWW
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Guys, people need to remember that WWW has no reason for hidden agenda. I.e. - there is no need for him to get rid of any of his competition for a job, as he is already in seemingly steady employment. So I cannot see why anyone in this position would just make things up/be deliberately biased.
If it was some of the other wannabes in here - I could understand - one less person persuing a career = one less person to compete with to get a first job.
I think it's funny how people will put glossy brochures from a very successful marketing department, with warped stats and figures above something that is coming straight from the horses mouth, as it were.
I don't pretend to agree with everything said, but I think what is being said is of use to a lot of people - particularly those in the "I'm spending Ł70k - but what the heck, at least I can say 'I tried'" camp or those who talk quite casually about paying off Ł1000 a month in loan payments for the next 5 years - on top of the mortgage, bills etc etc.
If it was some of the other wannabes in here - I could understand - one less person persuing a career = one less person to compete with to get a first job.
I think it's funny how people will put glossy brochures from a very successful marketing department, with warped stats and figures above something that is coming straight from the horses mouth, as it were.
I don't pretend to agree with everything said, but I think what is being said is of use to a lot of people - particularly those in the "I'm spending Ł70k - but what the heck, at least I can say 'I tried'" camp or those who talk quite casually about paying off Ł1000 a month in loan payments for the next 5 years - on top of the mortgage, bills etc etc.
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Anyone else struggling with the will to complete DL ATPL groundschool whilst the world is seemingly falling around us? I come on here usually just before hitting the BGS QB why I do it I don't know it does nothing but dent my motivation.
Then I remember the hour building I have to do and the pure unadulterated pleasure of strapping a C152 to your back and bimbling off around the country visiting friends and family.
I will continue training as I am fortunate enough to be doing this without debt and still have my Łgood money job to go back to, however I will hold short of the IR for a good year and do the FI instead. If I can grab a few hours on days off and at the weekends when I return back to my full time job then all the better.
I now see this training malarky as a bit of a journey. Taking the motorway is no longer an option and will lead to arriving at the destination at the wrong time and too expensively. The journey is now along a pot hole ridden road meandering it's way through the mountains. I will get there eventually, avoiding the pot holes, taking my time and arriving at the destination at hopefully the right time! Tortoise and Hare story springs to mind.
Cheers
MFWF in philosophical mood and delaying the groundschool!!
Then I remember the hour building I have to do and the pure unadulterated pleasure of strapping a C152 to your back and bimbling off around the country visiting friends and family.
I will continue training as I am fortunate enough to be doing this without debt and still have my Łgood money job to go back to, however I will hold short of the IR for a good year and do the FI instead. If I can grab a few hours on days off and at the weekends when I return back to my full time job then all the better.
I now see this training malarky as a bit of a journey. Taking the motorway is no longer an option and will lead to arriving at the destination at the wrong time and too expensively. The journey is now along a pot hole ridden road meandering it's way through the mountains. I will get there eventually, avoiding the pot holes, taking my time and arriving at the destination at hopefully the right time! Tortoise and Hare story springs to mind.
Cheers
MFWF in philosophical mood and delaying the groundschool!!
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Sorry for not being here for some time. I do think that it's good reasonable arguments WWW and others are coming up with. Although a bit pesimistic and too-much thinking on the UK economy and US.
I do not have the time to post all the time, but I could keep on finding various posts from business related articles like the one listed below.
IMF's Strauss-Kahn sees no global recovery until 2009
"We have good reason to think that the financial crisis is mostly behind us," though the consequences of the turmoil will continue to dampen growth for some time, he added.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...1-021298d326d2
I'm not trying to say we're not in a heavy crisis, just that it should be expected especially in aviation cause that's shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who knows this industry - and like history tells us it's only a matter of time before we're back on track
Sorry for the bad english..
I do not have the time to post all the time, but I could keep on finding various posts from business related articles like the one listed below.
IMF's Strauss-Kahn sees no global recovery until 2009
"We have good reason to think that the financial crisis is mostly behind us," though the consequences of the turmoil will continue to dampen growth for some time, he added.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...1-021298d326d2
I'm not trying to say we're not in a heavy crisis, just that it should be expected especially in aviation cause that's shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who knows this industry - and like history tells us it's only a matter of time before we're back on track
Sorry for the bad english..
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The journey is now along a pot hole ridden road meandering it's way through the mountains
And it's a road plagued with highwaymen, waiting to screw you over for every penny you have
and leave you for dead in the ditch.
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And it's a road plagued with highwaymen, waiting to screw you over for every penny you have and leave you for dead in the ditch.
and leave you for dead in the ditch.
BTW it all came through ok as you can guess from my previous post.
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This shows how high oil prices is changing the industry...
...and there is more bad news to come:
"The International Energy Agency gives the alarm: The world could run out of oil faster than expected - the danger of a supply shortage is rising.
Schneider: If I understand you correctly, you say that the demand for oil could rise 3 % globally every year, while we have to expect a decrease of 4 % in oil production in the time from now until 2015. That would be 7 % each year which are missing.
International Energy Agency: The demand might increase a little slower. But there could be a large gap between what should be there and what actually will be there, especially if we do not put massive efforts into improving the efficiency of cars or change to other transportation systems. If we don’t take measures on the consumer side, the consumption will continue to grow. And if we have not invested enough into oil production, we will flounder."
http://transitionculture.org/2008/06...-health-check/
(Fill' Er Up and Up: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1213...s_inside_today )
...and there is more bad news to come:
"The International Energy Agency gives the alarm: The world could run out of oil faster than expected - the danger of a supply shortage is rising.
Schneider: If I understand you correctly, you say that the demand for oil could rise 3 % globally every year, while we have to expect a decrease of 4 % in oil production in the time from now until 2015. That would be 7 % each year which are missing.
International Energy Agency: The demand might increase a little slower. But there could be a large gap between what should be there and what actually will be there, especially if we do not put massive efforts into improving the efficiency of cars or change to other transportation systems. If we don’t take measures on the consumer side, the consumption will continue to grow. And if we have not invested enough into oil production, we will flounder."
http://transitionculture.org/2008/06...-health-check/
(Fill' Er Up and Up: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1213...s_inside_today )
Last edited by saccade; 13th Jun 2008 at 11:23.
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Oil prices and the supply of oil are interesting subjects, and ones which have commentators with many and varied vested interests. The spread of oil price estimates from those who can reasonably be regarded as experts in the field reveals just how difficult it is to obtain reliable data on which to form an opinion.
However, in this case it seems to me that the IEA have been posted into a corner with 'what if' questions - ie, what happens if the production of oil decreases and the consumption of oil increases? Actually, you could substitute anything for 'oil' in those questions; the answer will still be, 'we have a problem'!
The answer to those questions will come in a number of shapes and sizes; partly the renewed and increased investment in recovery technology will allow oil production to increase in the medium term - at a price. The high price of oil is already giving increased impetus to the development of alternative fuels and energy sources. How will this affect aviation? In a number of ways.
The improvements in efficiency of power generation, domestic heating/cooling, personal transportation and a host of other consumers will likely have a significant effect on total oil consumption. Already, the major European economies have shown that economic growth can be maintained while reducing the use of primary energy sources (oil, gas and coal) . UK was down 3.8% last year, Germany over 5%. That overall reduction may allow aviation to get the breathing space it needs for the lengthy regulatory approval process for algal-based and other alternative fuels to be productionised and put into general use. The importance of this development to aviation is such that it may persuade the international regulatory bodies to get off their arses and start moving at a little more than the snail's pace they're used to.
The same IEA that postulates a potential expanding gap between production and consumption reported, only a couple of days ago, a reduction of 20% in UK petroleum use. While that figure may be inaccurate (and is disputed by the Petrol Retailers Association) there is no doubt that, worldwide, there will be a reduction in oil use in 2008. Once people realise there's good money to be made from oil substitutes (and my boss is way ahead of most of the industry on that), the switch from oil will be up and running. I anticipate flying with fuel that is 15% or more non-oil based within 5 to 10 years.
Scroggs
However, in this case it seems to me that the IEA have been posted into a corner with 'what if' questions - ie, what happens if the production of oil decreases and the consumption of oil increases? Actually, you could substitute anything for 'oil' in those questions; the answer will still be, 'we have a problem'!
The answer to those questions will come in a number of shapes and sizes; partly the renewed and increased investment in recovery technology will allow oil production to increase in the medium term - at a price. The high price of oil is already giving increased impetus to the development of alternative fuels and energy sources. How will this affect aviation? In a number of ways.
The improvements in efficiency of power generation, domestic heating/cooling, personal transportation and a host of other consumers will likely have a significant effect on total oil consumption. Already, the major European economies have shown that economic growth can be maintained while reducing the use of primary energy sources (oil, gas and coal) . UK was down 3.8% last year, Germany over 5%. That overall reduction may allow aviation to get the breathing space it needs for the lengthy regulatory approval process for algal-based and other alternative fuels to be productionised and put into general use. The importance of this development to aviation is such that it may persuade the international regulatory bodies to get off their arses and start moving at a little more than the snail's pace they're used to.
The same IEA that postulates a potential expanding gap between production and consumption reported, only a couple of days ago, a reduction of 20% in UK petroleum use. While that figure may be inaccurate (and is disputed by the Petrol Retailers Association) there is no doubt that, worldwide, there will be a reduction in oil use in 2008. Once people realise there's good money to be made from oil substitutes (and my boss is way ahead of most of the industry on that), the switch from oil will be up and running. I anticipate flying with fuel that is 15% or more non-oil based within 5 to 10 years.
Scroggs
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FYI - I am able to commute away from Wigan and to a city centre.
WWW - the UK is a more stable economy overall - not at present, but overall it is.
I would maybe suggest sticking to flying aeroplanes and let the economic experts do their jobs as the negative attitudes being displayed by you on this thread I think is not a professional approach and is based on your opinions only with some pretty graphs thrown in.
What I was saying is that the UK is a better controlled economy that the US and in the main - will remain so.
If this is the kind of negative cr@p that is put on the forum, rather than constructive advice that others have posted - mainly by Scroggs, then I would suggest you keep you opinion to yourself.
There are too many people who try to put down the wannabes who are trying to get that coverted licence (me included).
And FYI - the company I work for is the auditor of British Airways Virgin Atlantic & Easyjet in addition to BP - therefore I have information to tap from both sides of the industries - aviation & oil!!!!!
WWW - the UK is a more stable economy overall - not at present, but overall it is.
I would maybe suggest sticking to flying aeroplanes and let the economic experts do their jobs as the negative attitudes being displayed by you on this thread I think is not a professional approach and is based on your opinions only with some pretty graphs thrown in.
What I was saying is that the UK is a better controlled economy that the US and in the main - will remain so.
If this is the kind of negative cr@p that is put on the forum, rather than constructive advice that others have posted - mainly by Scroggs, then I would suggest you keep you opinion to yourself.
There are too many people who try to put down the wannabes who are trying to get that coverted licence (me included).
And FYI - the company I work for is the auditor of British Airways Virgin Atlantic & Easyjet in addition to BP - therefore I have information to tap from both sides of the industries - aviation & oil!!!!!
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GSB, if you had bothered to read my previous posts you would find that I'm not a starry-eyed wannabe who is 'in denial'. My only observation is the apparent manner in which the message has/is being delivered.
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There are too many people who try to put down the wannabes who are trying to get that coverted licence (me included).
I would maybe suggest sticking to flying aeroplanes and let the economic experts do their jobs as the negative attitudes being displayed by you on this thread I think is not a professional approach and is based on your opinions only with some pretty graphs thrown in.
Are these the economic experts at the Council of Mortgage Lenders, Northern Rock, Bear Sterns, UBS or SocGen? Perhaps they should take up flying..
A negative attitude towards Western economies and the prospects for airline wannabes is neither a professional or amateur approach. It is merely a view, articulated and illustrated with data or supporting views.
I invite you to, rather than castigate me, expand upon your assertion that the UK economy is more stable than that of the UK. Define your terms, point to your data and make your argument. I'm genuinely interested. From the Lawson boom, through the ERM withdrawal to the DotCom and HousePrice bubbles and now joint recessions I would argue the two economies are fairly evenly unstable with the UK winning on points as we seem to take longer to recover from recession and drive our house price bubbles higher. But its debatable.
Calling for people to quit posting negative crap is not really very useful. I understand that the urge to shoot the messenger and to displace anger are both very strong human instincts.
WWW
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A and C - there is no "problem".
In fact, his "plan" is prety much identical to my own.
I'm merely referring to the fact that there will always be unscrupulous operators, marketing depts and then there is the CAA and their rip off fees.
As for the FTOs he has chosen - I don't know who they are, so can't comment on them apart from BGS who are great.
They may be "reputable" now, but a repuation can be destroyed in a very short time. What's good now, won't necessarily be good come the advanced training.
In fact, his "plan" is prety much identical to my own.
I'm merely referring to the fact that there will always be unscrupulous operators, marketing depts and then there is the CAA and their rip off fees.
As for the FTOs he has chosen - I don't know who they are, so can't comment on them apart from BGS who are great.
They may be "reputable" now, but a repuation can be destroyed in a very short time. What's good now, won't necessarily be good come the advanced training.
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A few stories that i thought would interest wannabes like myself:
EasyJet to close a German base
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/314339b2-3...nclick_check=1
Indian airlines lobby PM on rising fuel costs
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0ef6bdae-3...077b07658.html
EasyJet to close a German base
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/314339b2-3...nclick_check=1
Indian airlines lobby PM on rising fuel costs
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0ef6bdae-3...077b07658.html
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craig,
You say the UK economy is better controlled than the US. I've read recently that some think the BOE MPC have 'lost control' of inflation. When do you think they will get a grip on it?
Apart from savings being eroded we all suffer from inflation, especially if the wage spiral kicks in.
You say the UK economy is better controlled than the US. I've read recently that some think the BOE MPC have 'lost control' of inflation. When do you think they will get a grip on it?
Apart from savings being eroded we all suffer from inflation, especially if the wage spiral kicks in.