Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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I have no complaints with that post Alex.... it is very constructive and useful.
Just hate the general slagging matches... fight fire with fire and you have sir.
Just hate the general slagging matches... fight fire with fire and you have sir.
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Alex W
....By all means advise caution, but shock headlines about the state of the US domestic airline market have little relevance to what happens in Europe and the middle east, very few europeans would want or be able to look for jobs with the US majors.
The same is true of the housing market in the UK. OK, you've made what may be a smart move in selling your house but in your enthusiasm to talk down house prices you are not presenting a balanced picture to wannabees, you (and heliport) are only swamping us with one extreme viewpoint.
That is in fact the crux of the problem. No-one knows what will happen to either the economy or the airline market, there are only opinions. The press tout an alarmist view because it simply makes better headlines, but for every cut-and-paste article there's a quieter voice somewhere with a more moderate opinion. They may be right, they may be wrong, but you are losing the balanced view in your enthusiasm to see house price falls.
The press. I would usually side with you on this one. I'm surprised that they didn't come out with many of the current stories sooner. There is much more bad news to come from the banking sector. They have been busy drawing up a new system to guarantee debt in the form of bonds in an effort to make the huge loses on the sub-prime sector. I am told the systems fall outside the regulators grasp and is based upon a quick economic recovery. Last quarter of 2008/first quarter 2009 should see this one emerge.
www puts emphasis on the housing market which I feel appropriate to this thread, as its the main source of security for loans for wannabes. My concern is that it is now entirely possible to secure a loan for training, wind up with no job, default on the loan, lose your house and still owe money because of negative equity.
One thing which seems to be missed, is not just the fall in prices, but the massive drop in volumes. Inflation or deflation matters not if there are no buyers, and there are just not the buyers out there. Ignore what the press and the banks say about Scotland holding up, the central belt is in just a bad a state as England, houses are not selling at any price. One lawyer said, and I quote, "The housing market! shove your head in a bucket of sand, after 18 months pop up, see what its like and be ready to shove your head back in."
The shame of it is that your basic advice is, as ever, sound. Anyone entering the market now should be aware that there is a probability that jobs will not be so easy to find in a year or two. Stay in employment as long as you can, don't borrow large sums secured against property, be careful. Oh, and never pay an FTO more up front than you can afford to lose.
never pay an FTO more up front than you can afford to lose
Alex, please don't take my post as a pop at you, its just my thoughts on what you have written. I benefit from having a background that includes the food industry, airlines, and now farming. I hope that I give a balanced view drawn from previous experiences and the current climate. I know that people will not enjoy reading my thoughts, particularly those coming into the profession, but its how it is. WWW sometimes has an unfortunate writing style, (maybe I do as well) but he is correct.
Last edited by spinnaker; 11th Jul 2008 at 11:35. Reason: spelling
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Heli_ports RSS feed:
1) Crude Oil Rises to Record on Speculation Israel May Attack Iran
2) Thomas Cook cancels airline deal
3) Credit crunch 'hits pocket money
4) UK house prices 'fell 2% in June
5) Europe to replace nearly 90% of current fleet by 2027: Boeing
Cheer up its Beerday! 
1) Crude Oil Rises to Record on Speculation Israel May Attack Iran
Oil rallied to a record high of $145.98
Thomas Cook has cancelled plans to merge its German charter airline Condor with rival Air Berlin after discussions with the competition regulator
Some people are using their savings to pay for daily essentials and cutting their children's pocket money owing to rising bills, according to two surveys
UK house prices fell by 2% in June, according to the UK's biggest mortgage lender, the Halifax.
Boeing expects almost 90% of aircraft in the current European fleet to be replaced by newer types over the next two decades, underlining the trend laid out in its latest market forecast.
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It really is the end of the world then if someone's pocket money has been cut!
Please....could the papers not come up with smething a bit more juicy or doom n'gloom filled??
Please....could the papers not come up with smething a bit more juicy or doom n'gloom filled??
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Are but MIKERC there are no doubt wanabees on here who's only income to speak of has only ever been pocket money! The cuts may be very painful... 
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
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Cheer up its Beerday!
P.s Please note the "Pepsi" drinking Smilie to go with the car!!!
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The underlying reason for the decline is down to the banking system going into meltdown and loss of confidence.
Anyway, the current slow down is probably beneficial in the long run, permits a degree of introspection and will probably help some of the Asian economies which are accelerating too quickly too.
As W H Auden suggests, probably better to be a "rider" than a "reader".
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With the reported traffic figures being up I still don't feel that they adequately compensate the rising operating costs one of which is the 'evil mistress' oil. Will these traffic figures hold up I doubt it very much let alone rise any further. Which ever way we look at it we are in for a bumpy ride though the only viable question remaining is how bad and for how long. That's where this speculative thread comes in with it's array of doom merchants, crystal ball reading madam Zelgas and happy-go-lucky brigade who think nothing can possibly go wrong.
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Oil hits new high on Iran fears
Crude oil has jumped to new record highs above $147, driven by ongoing geopolitical concerns over Iran.
BBC NEWS | Business | Oil hits new high on Iran fears
JB007 if you're buying i'm there!
Alex I take your point and thank you for providing some balance. By my taking a strong position it has rather helped in dragging the big guns into the debate. A lively thread, like this one, needs Cowboys and Indians.
You suggest I have a vested interest in talking down the housing market. I really don't think my ramblings here will end up in an even greater fall in the housing market. Not really. But you do sell ATPL training courses so you do have a very clear vested interest in Wannabes not all stopping training. I believe your postings are simply made in an effort to help Wannabes - if you will extend the same courtesy to me.
As for the figures I've posted I would contend that they understate the REAL house price falls as all official and mortgage company data totally excludes the hundreds of properties sold by auction every week. There are dozens and dozens of flats and repossessed houses going through each week by order of the mortgagees. In many cases they sell for half what some poor fool paid for them over the last 2 years. None of this is reflected in the published data funnily enough.
Whatever.
I don't really enjoy people attacking my motivations or questioning my interests. My job here is done. Its all plain as can be and from here on in only an utter idiot would be unaware of the dire period ahead for the house market, economy and airlines.
When I started six months ago this was not clear to many. Most of the media and the spin was all the other way and there was a useful purpose in my forcefully putting me gloomy message out to Wannabes.
I'm happy I did my bit to warn a few people of the coming danger.
I'll end my bit now.
WWW
You suggest I have a vested interest in talking down the housing market. I really don't think my ramblings here will end up in an even greater fall in the housing market. Not really. But you do sell ATPL training courses so you do have a very clear vested interest in Wannabes not all stopping training. I believe your postings are simply made in an effort to help Wannabes - if you will extend the same courtesy to me.
As for the figures I've posted I would contend that they understate the REAL house price falls as all official and mortgage company data totally excludes the hundreds of properties sold by auction every week. There are dozens and dozens of flats and repossessed houses going through each week by order of the mortgagees. In many cases they sell for half what some poor fool paid for them over the last 2 years. None of this is reflected in the published data funnily enough.
Whatever.
I don't really enjoy people attacking my motivations or questioning my interests. My job here is done. Its all plain as can be and from here on in only an utter idiot would be unaware of the dire period ahead for the house market, economy and airlines.
When I started six months ago this was not clear to many. Most of the media and the spin was all the other way and there was a useful purpose in my forcefully putting me gloomy message out to Wannabes.
I'm happy I did my bit to warn a few people of the coming danger.
I'll end my bit now.
WWW
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Having follwed this thread for many months now, it seems that there are denyers and there are realists.
Whilst it might be nice for ones nerves to be a denyer, it seems to me to be a foolish attitude. Looking backwards, over many years, shows that realists like WWW are absolutely correct in their assesment of the immediate future.
Looking even further ahead and using the same information as has been used by other realists on this site, I will give you my take on the next five years or so.
With a few notable and well financed and properly run exceptions, the next few years will see the loss of many, many aircrew/airline and associated jobs.
Recruitment and training will be the first to suffer, followed soon by job losses in the less efficient and poorly managed airlines.
Restricting expansion, delaying or canceling mergers and severe route cut-backs will lead to drastic contraction of fleets: the older, less efficient aircraft going first.
With fuel at twice the price it was two years ago, I cannot see a way back from the present situation, even if fuel prices stabilise, or even more unlikely, reduce again.
The public perception has changed considerably over the recent past. Airlines are seen as polluters, even if the numbers show that the contribution is only a small percentage of the total.
Demand for business and leisure travel will always exist but simply not anywhere near the current totals. The surcharges and tax on a ticket to Asia from UK now amounts to 65% of the total price. Not sustainable!
House price deflation, negative equity, tight borrowing, high unemployment, rapidly rising energy costs, tightening fuel supplies with expanding demand and falling stock markets all lead to the inevitable conclusion that we are heading for a massive correction in all aspects of modern life.
I will be pleasantly surprised, nay amazed, if 60% of the present capacity still operates in five years time.
If you have an alternative to flying, either as you approach the end of your flying career, or before you embark on it, then take it sooner, rather than later.
Good luck to us all.
Whilst it might be nice for ones nerves to be a denyer, it seems to me to be a foolish attitude. Looking backwards, over many years, shows that realists like WWW are absolutely correct in their assesment of the immediate future.
Looking even further ahead and using the same information as has been used by other realists on this site, I will give you my take on the next five years or so.
With a few notable and well financed and properly run exceptions, the next few years will see the loss of many, many aircrew/airline and associated jobs.
Recruitment and training will be the first to suffer, followed soon by job losses in the less efficient and poorly managed airlines.
Restricting expansion, delaying or canceling mergers and severe route cut-backs will lead to drastic contraction of fleets: the older, less efficient aircraft going first.
With fuel at twice the price it was two years ago, I cannot see a way back from the present situation, even if fuel prices stabilise, or even more unlikely, reduce again.
The public perception has changed considerably over the recent past. Airlines are seen as polluters, even if the numbers show that the contribution is only a small percentage of the total.
Demand for business and leisure travel will always exist but simply not anywhere near the current totals. The surcharges and tax on a ticket to Asia from UK now amounts to 65% of the total price. Not sustainable!
House price deflation, negative equity, tight borrowing, high unemployment, rapidly rising energy costs, tightening fuel supplies with expanding demand and falling stock markets all lead to the inevitable conclusion that we are heading for a massive correction in all aspects of modern life.
I will be pleasantly surprised, nay amazed, if 60% of the present capacity still operates in five years time.
If you have an alternative to flying, either as you approach the end of your flying career, or before you embark on it, then take it sooner, rather than later.
Good luck to us all.
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WWW, I'll go for that. I've stayed out of this so far because there's an obvious charge of self-interest that can be levelled at me. I know that, ultimately, we're both trying to put across the same message to wannabees, be careful and don't bet the farm.
Funnily enough that's what I've done today - bought a farm!
WWW
WWW
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Ohhhhhh dear, a very bad time to buy a farm..... Have a look at this
"Farms set for bad times" - Daily Mail, 11/07/08
"Only an Idiot Would Buy a Farm In This Climate" - Express 10/7/08
"Why Oh Why Oh Why Do These Wannabee Farmers Who Don't have A Clue About The Farming Industry Mortgage Themselves To The Hilt To Buy A Farm" - Enourmous Eloquent Englishman
"Nice Tits On Page 3 - PS Bad Time To Buy a Farm This Week" - The Sun
"Farms set for bad times" - Daily Mail, 11/07/08
"Only an Idiot Would Buy a Farm In This Climate" - Express 10/7/08
"Why Oh Why Oh Why Do These Wannabee Farmers Who Don't have A Clue About The Farming Industry Mortgage Themselves To The Hilt To Buy A Farm" - Enourmous Eloquent Englishman
"Nice Tits On Page 3 - PS Bad Time To Buy a Farm This Week" - The Sun
Its a leisure purchase, not an investment.
Thank you,
WWW
ps Get Orf My Land!
Thank you,
WWW
ps Get Orf My Land!
